2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Why not? What’s wrong with keeping on eye on the strength of the PAC jet in the months ahead since it has consistently been a huge issue for the past 9 winters

A September 15th 10-day  forecast may be relevant to the coming winter when the original poster conditioned it on 2 levels? OK 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Why not? What’s wrong with keeping on eye on the strength of the PAC jet in the months ahead since it has consistently been a huge issue for the past 9 winters

Yeah, the last 9 winters had the strongest Pacific Jet east of Japan to the Aleutians on record back to 1950. It actually intensified more since 2019. These frequent jet extensions are a part of the reason why the winters have been so warm since 15-16 and less snowy back to 18-19 for places like NYC Metro.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the last 9 winters had the strongest Pacific Jet east of Japan to the Aleutians on record back to 1950. 
 

 

 

 

 

i suggest if folks expanded/considered this research over the whole globe they may find mid latitude velocity anomalies elsewhere, as well.

[WestMichigan]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i suggest if folks expanded/considered this research over the whole globe they may find mid latitude velocity anomalies elsewhere, as well.

Any reason why?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

I thinks it's due to the higher heights near the Pacific Northwest and Vancouver in recent years compared to the older -PDO era. So we are getting a split -PNA vortex. One piece this week stays up in Alaska and another digs into California. The height rises in the middle register as a +PNA. In the older -PDO era we didn’t see this pattern much since the -PNA vortex was more consolidated. Could also be related to competing marine heatwaves changing the character of how we used to understand the teleconnections in the old days. As we have also seen changes in the North Atlantic with the AO and NAO not as in sync as they used to be. This was evident with the very strong winter -AOs during the 2020s and the NAO more neutral to even positive during those -AO intervals. As recently as 09-10 and 10-11 the -AO and -NAO were more evenly matched during stronger blocking intervals.

I think it's because there is a trough over Alaska.. I've noticed over the years that they have weight on Alaska and Gulf of Alaska for PNA measurement

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z GEFS.. N. Pacific ridge reloads and reloads, then there is a big Aleutian ridge for early Oct. 

We are having this year a really high correlation between the ENSO subsurface and N. Pacific ridge.. when the subsurface went negative in mid-February, the ridge started happening and it has held strong now all the way through October. 

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

He used the word "may" on 2 different levels. It was a useless post by Noll. Why even repost this?

Never heard of Noll other than on here, but it's clear by his posts that he is the warm version of a JB type. Just posts ANYTHING hypothetical that implies warmth. Right now it's abnormally warm in Canada and it's very likely Canada will have abnormal cold in winter. 

Considering in this thread we have dissected not just ENSO but even what enso state the atmosphere is behaving like, it's really out there to equate a September pattern to winter. Especially when northern locations common theme in a nino is chilly Fall, mild winter...and in a Nina is mild Fall, colder winter.

[GaWx]

The CRW Nino 3.4 updated for the first time in two months! It has usually been either very close to or slightly warmer than OISST. But currently it is slightly cooler at -0.38:

 

OISST has resumed cooling (now at -0.28):

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Any reason why?

CC.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A long time ago, I found that patterns on the West Coast, and especially the SW, US, lead us farther east by a significant amount of time, and the correlation was fairly high. This worked on both monthly and yearly, and even decadal scales. 

With the West Coast having an exceptionally warm Summer, and places like Las Vegas and Phoenix breaking their records by as much as +2F, I made a composite of 23 analogs since 1948, and rolled that forward to not this Winter (I found there is a slight +pna correlation this Winter, as the pattern seems to carry and not spread at that shorter amount of time), but the following Winter (25-26). 

A long time ago all my roll forwards were within +1F, as I didn't know what to really look for, but now these things have pretty strong signals. Here's the +16-20 month period (DJF 25-26): 

+5F max for 23/75 analogs (>30% of the total dataset) is pretty strong. I think the SW, US is kind of a global warming center, as they generate their own conditions, not so much index driven, especially in the Summer. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC.

For your 666th post in this thread. 33 lol

Then there is only this member browsing 3-3-13 lol 

 

Don't feel bad, I was doing something money related and  e pluribus unum was the only one browsing lol

[snowman19]

Pretty clear relationship between high solar/sunspots/geomag/radio flux and the Atlantic hurricane season:

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Pretty clear relationship between high solar/sunspots/geomag/radio flux and the Atlantic hurricane season:
 

 

 

 

 

Yea, I am not debating that CC may be at play as well given the ITCZ shift, but it would be folly to dismiss the solar relationship. Its very strong and clear as day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

TBH, it would make sense to me if there were multiple factors at play inhibiting this season because its been a complete no-show, especially relative to expectation.

[snowman19]

Yea, I am not debating that CC may be at play as well given the ITCZ shift, but it would be folly to dismiss the solar relationship. Its very strong and clear as day.

The 01-02 solar max….final seasonal ACE: 110. And that was before AGW really took off like a rocket. Not a coincidence

@Gawx

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 01-02 solar max….final seasonal ACE: 110. And that was before AGW really took off like a rocket. Not a coincidence

Yea, I see the parallel, but I don't expect as hostile a polar domain this cold season for a variety of different reasons. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Right now it's abnormally warm in Canada and it's very likely Canada will have abnormal cold in winter. 

The only colder than average winter in Canada since 14 was the 21-22 La Niña. They use a 61-90 baseline which does a better job at the long term temperature trends. Updating every 10 years like the U.S. does makes the warm departures smaller with each update. Even though the ranking of warmest to coldest winter stays the same. But a new warmest winter in 91-20 climate normals will have a smaller departure than if it occurred in previous decades.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations/winter-2024-bulletin.html#

Winter national temperature departures and long-term trend, 1948–2024

Long description

The time series graph shows that averaged winter temperatures across the country have fluctuated from year to year over the 1948–2024 period. With the exceptions of 2014 and 2022, average winter temperatures have remained above the baseline average since 1996. The linear trend indicates that winter temperatures averaged across the nation have warmed by 3.6°C over the past 77 years, increased by 0.2°C compared to the last winter.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only colder than average winter in Canada since 14 was the 21-22 La Niña. They use a 61-90 baseline which does a better job at the long term temperature trends. Updating every 10 years like the U.S. does makes the warm departures smaller with each update. Even though the ranking of warmest to coldest winter stays the same. But a new warmest winter in 91-20 climate normals will have a smaller departure than if it occurred in previous decades.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations/winter-2024-bulletin.html#

Winter national temperature departures and long-term trend, 1948–2024

Long description

The time series graph shows that averaged winter temperatures across the country have fluctuated from year to year over the 1948–2024 period. With the exceptions of 2014 and 2022, average winter temperatures have remained above the baseline average since 1996. The linear trend indicates that winter temperatures averaged across the nation have warmed by 3.6°C over the past 77 years, increased by 0.2°C compared to the last winter.

 

Based on the graph, it's interesting to note that the 3 warmest winters were 2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24 - the 3 most recent ONI strong/super el ninos. I remember the Winter Olympics in Vancouver being affected by the abnormally warm winter of 2009-10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only colder than average winter in Canada since 14 was the 21-22 La Niña. They use a 61-90 baseline which does a better job at the long term temperature trends. Updating every 10 years like the U.S. does makes the warm departures smaller with each update. Even though the ranking of warmest to coldest winter stays the same. But a new warmest winter in 91-20 climate normals will have a smaller departure than if it occurred in previous decades.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations/winter-2024-bulletin.html#

Winter national temperature departures and long-term trend, 1948–2024

Long description

The time series graph shows that averaged winter temperatures across the country have fluctuated from year to year over the 1948–2024 period. With the exceptions of 2014 and 2022, average winter temperatures have remained above the baseline average since 1996. The linear trend indicates that winter temperatures averaged across the nation have warmed by 3.6°C over the past 77 years, increased by 0.2°C compared to the last winter.

 

Well, I think its silly to go by 1961-1990 baseline....no one would ever be below average. I won't be shocked if Canada is below by 1991-2020 climo.

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 01-02 solar max….final seasonal ACE: 110. And that was before AGW really took off like a rocket. Not a coincidence

Comparing this year to 01/02, this years sunspot numbers are lower than 01/02 (per the graph in the Maue tweet.) Likewise, as I posted yesterday, we may be at the peak based on the link below.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

 

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this year to 01/02, this years sunspot numbers are lower than 01/02 (per the graph in the Maue tweet.) Likewise, as I posted yesterday, we may be at the peak based on the link below.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

 

We may be at the peak but it’s going to be a few months before we can know that for sure. We may see another spike or we may not. There are other sunspot groups coming up that can cause another spike or they may not. It’s wait and see. It’s impossible for anyone to know for sure right now. The total sunspot numbers for this month are still very high 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Based on the graph, it's interesting to note that the 3 warmest winters were 2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24 - the 3 most recent ONI strong/super el ninos. I remember the Winter Olympics in Vancouver being affected by the abnormally warm winter of 2009-10.

Obviously, El Niños dominate the list. But there were some very warm La Ninas in there also for Canada .Part of the reason that our winters have been so warm in the U.S is a lack of cold in Canada relative to past winters. You will also notice how much the 97-98 super El Niño has been eclipsed by numerous weaker El Niños like 23-24 as the climate has continued to warm. 
 

Top 10 warmest winters in Canada and ENSO

2024….+5.2C….El Nino 

2010….+4.1…….El Nino 

2016….+4.0……El Nino 

2006….+3.9……La Nina

2021…..+3.7……La Nina 

2012……+3.6…..La Nina 

1987……+3.1……El Nino 

2007…..+3.1……El Nino 

2017……+3.0……La Nina

1998…..+2.9……El Nino 

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We may be at the peak but it’s going to be a few months before we can know that for sure. We may see another spike or we may not. There are other sunspot groups coming up that can cause another spike or they may not. It’s wait and see. It’s impossible for anyone to know for sure right now. The total sunspot numbers for this month are still very high 

I don't dispute that, well not much (lol), but Maue's graph shows that previous peaks usually had a double peak. We've had that, so between that and just about all the measurements on the top graph at that link, I  think the top is in. Whether we linger there is the only question in my mind. Either way, we won't reach the level of 01/02 all things considered imho. If I'm wrong...so what?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Frustrating that they have't updated yet to include August in the composites.

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't dispute that, well not much (lol), but Maue's graph shows that previous peaks usually had a double peak. We've had that, so between that and just about all the measurements on the top graph at that link, I  think the top is in. Whether we linger there is the only question in my mind. Either way, we won't reach the level of 01/02 all things considered imho. If I'm wrong...so what?

I really don't think it matters this season whether we have peaked or not. When considering the pervceived favorable period near the turn of the decade, I would like to peak ASAP to get that descending solar window out of the way.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I think its silly to go by 1961-1990 baseline....no one would ever be below average. I won't be shocked if Canada is below by 1991-2020 climo.

Using the 61-90 baseline doesn’t fundamentally change the big picture. Whether we use 81-10 or 61-90, 14-15 was the last winter with a cold departure in the Northeast. The rankings are always exactly the same. By 81-10 climo 14-15 was -4.1. It was still a cold winter using the 61-90 baseline at -2.0.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Using the 61-90 baseline doesn’t fundamentally change the big picture. Whether we use 81-10 or 61-90, 14-15 was the last winter with a cold departure in the Northeast. The rankings are always exactly the same. By 81-10 climo 14-15 was -4.1. It was still a cold winter using the 61-90 baseline at -2.0.

I never suggested that it did. I'm not sure what the issue is, unless you are trying to argue that finishing colder than 1961-1990 climo isn't a taller task than it is for 1991-2020? I understand that nothing changes the fact that its been getting warmer...don't worry, no one is stealing your CC.

All I meant was moving forward we should be measuring against recent climo given CC...I wasn't insinuating that it would alter the ranking of the past 9 years.

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never suggested that it did. I'm not sure what the issue is, unless you are trying to argue that finishing colder than 1961-1990 climo isn't a taller task than it is for 1991-2020? I understand that nothing changes the fact that its been getting warmer...don't worry, no one is stealing your CC.

All I meant was moving forward we should be measuring against recent climo given CC...I wasn't insinuating that it would alter the ranking of the past 9 years.

No issue here. Just commenting on what you said. For agricultural and utility customers updating climo like the CPC does every 10 years makes sense. But it does minimize the warming trend when just looking at departures and not rankings.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No issue here. Just commenting on what you said. For agricultural and utility customers updating climo like the CPC does every 10 years makes sense. But it does minimize the warming trend when just looking at departures and not rankings.

I am not personally a fan of climate change since I liked the cooler summers with lower humidity in the old days. Winters I don’t really miss the cold since I was always more of a KU snowstorm fan than extended cold. I was always in the just cold enough for snow camp.

I never explicitly said that I felt like it would have changed anything post 2015, but I probably should have elaborated since I did use some strong verbiage. All I meant was exactly what I said......we may never see a below average season again using 1961-1990 climo.

As far as minimizing the warming trend....technically it does, but I feel as though the warming is tacit. Interesting you say that though because this is why I like to use the 1951-2010 climo period when doing seasonal stuff to normalize/standardize that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The older 500mb analog composites are pretty useless when derived from 1991-2020 climo because the whole map is blue.