2024-2025 La Nina

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Least active September hurricane seasons are an interesting group if we hold on.  Especially in direct opposition to years like 2017 which saw extraordinary activity in September.

Arizona should see quite a bit of rain with Ilena once it dies. Don't think we'll get much at all here.

2014 is the only other hurricane season in recent history in the Atlantic to be as inactive as this one. That year only had 2 named storms in September: Dolly and Edouard. Coincidentally, this was the last season to have a later dated first storm than this year. 2014 finished with 8 named storms, making it the least active season in the 21st century.

2014 was an active year in the Pacific. That is certainly not the case this September, with Ilena being the only named storm this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2014 is the only other hurricane season in recent history in the Atlantic to be as inactive as this one. That year only had 2 named storms in September: Dolly and Edouard. Coincidentally, this was the last season to have a later dated first storm than this year. 2014 finished with 8 named storms, making it the least active season in the 21st century.

2014 was an active year in the Pacific. That is certainly not the case this September, with Ilena being the only named storm this month.

I think 2014 is @snowman19's top analog.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2014 is @snowman19's top analog.

Where's your gratuitous  emoji? Lol

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2014 is the only other hurricane season in recent history in the Atlantic to be as inactive as this one. That year only had 2 named storms in September: Dolly and Edouard. Coincidentally, this was the last season to have a later dated first storm than this year. 2014 finished with 8 named storms, making it the least active season in the 21st century.

2014 was an active year in the Pacific. That is certainly not the case this September, with Ilena being the only named storm this month.

 I’ll self impose a 3 ppd ITT limit on myself for the entire month of Dec if 2024 were to not end Nov with season to date ACE 50+ higher than 2014’s total ACE of 67. So, if 2024 doesn’t reach 117+ ACE by Nov 30, I’ll lose this bet. That’s how confident I am that 2024 is no 2014.

 ACE is currently at 60, which is right at the 1991-2020 avg for the date. To compare, 2014 was only at 24 then. What’s giving me a lot of confidence are the consistent Euro Weeklies.

 

 9/12/24 Euro Weeklies mean ACE progs (% of climo for the week) (Euro climo based on 2004-23):

9/16-22: 6 (40%)(has been BN)

9/23-29: 14 (110%)(has been NN)

9/30-10/6: 16 (170%)(has been AN)(16 is climo of peak week of 9/9-15)

10/7-13: 10 (140%)(has been AN)

- So, the week of 9/30-10/6 is forecasted by the current Weeklies to be the busiest in terms of ACE. This run is essentially predicting peak climo ACE 3 weeks late despite 9/30-10/6 climo already being down 40% from its peak!

- As the above shows along with prior runs, the Weeklies have been consistent with a BN late Aug through mid Sept, a NN late Sept, and AN 1st 2 weeks of Oct. So, these signals are rather strong.

- This is the 4th run in a row having 9/30-10/6 the busiest week.

- Including the current week, the Weeklies are forecasting additional ACE of ~47 as of Oct 13. That would get 2024 to ~107. If that were to verify closely, I’d need only ~10 more ACE for the period Oct 14th-Nov 30th.

- With La Niña and a still very warm Atlantic, this shouldn’t be difficult to attain.

[SnoSki14]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that has characterized the past few years.....so....

Yes persistence forecasting has made the guy look like a genius but there's very little nuance in his posts. Lots of biased takes pulled from Twitter too. 

JB looked like a genius too in the snowy 2000s & 2010s Era. He's just anti JB at this point. 

Bluewave and rain do a much better job explaining the rationale behind the warm winters. 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2014 is @snowman19's top analog.

My analogs are +NAO +AO +WPO +EPO -PNA MJO 4-6 -PDO. In honor of that troll Snoski14 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Huge Omega block being modeled

This fits the pattern that we've seen for the last 5 years

The interesting thing this time is that the 500mb low will be near the deepest on record on the West Coast for the month of September. It would be average for the winter. Also record positive 500 mb heights for Eastern Canada. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes persistence forecasting has made the guy look like a genius but there's very little nuance in his posts. Lots of biased takes pulled from Twitter too. 

JB looked like a genius too in the snowy 2000s & 2010s Era. He's just anti JB at this point. 

Bluewave and rain do a much better job explaining the rationale behind the warm winters. 

Well, yea....but they are the Acuna (when healthy) and Judge of long range forecasting. Snowman has some biases, as we all do, but he clearly knows his shit and adds a lot of value to the dicussion IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If there is to be an official trimonthly La Niña 24-25, it needs to make moves NOW. We are at the out of time point here. If this slacks off again for any extended period, I think we end up with a cold-neutral winter
 

RONI is going to be reflective of a solid la Nina, which is supported by the pattern, as Chuck and Bluewave have been illustrating. I couldn't care less what the ONI does.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

RONI is going to be reflective of a solid la Nina, which is supported by the pattern, as Chuck and Bluewave have been illustrating. I couldn't care less what the ONI does.

I mean we’ve been in a default La Niña background pattern for years and nothing has changed in the PAC so……

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And this solar cycle continues to way overperform

 

 

 

 Despite the level of geomagnetic activity noted in that tweet, the daily sunspot #s have actually dropped notably in recent days: if today’s # were to end up at 140 or lower it would be the lowest daily since way back on July 8th. Also, the running 5 day average of <150 is easily the lowest since early July. Aug averaged way up at 215, the highest Aug since 1991.
 Will this continue?

 

2024 09 01 2024.668 182  14.5  27  35
2024 09 02 2024.671 195  21.1  25  32
2024 09 03 2024.673 180  21.2  20  23
2024 09 04 2024.676 174  26.1  21  26
2024 09 05 2024.679 181  13.1  15  20
2024 09 06 2024.682 189  13.3  19  24
2024 09 07 2024.684 168  17.9  23  27
2024 09 08 2024.687 171  18.7  20  25
2024 09 09 2024.690 156  19.9  21  24
2024 09 10 2024.693 148  12.9  23  29
2024 09 11 2024.695 152  15.3  27  32
2024 09 12 2024.698 146  11.6  18  22
2024 09 13 2024.701 120  10.5  17  21

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt

[snowman19]

 Despite the level of geomagnetic activity noted in that tweet, the daily sunspot #s have actually dropped notably in recent days: if today’s # were to end up at 140 or lower it would be the lowest daily since way back on July 8th. Also, the running 5 day average of  Will this continue?
 

2024 09 01 2024.668 182  14.5  27  352024 09 02 2024.671 195  21.1  25  322024 09 03 2024.673 180  21.2  20  232024 09 04 2024.676 174  26.1  21  262024 09 05 2024.679 181  13.1  15  202024 09 06 2024.682 189  13.3  19  242024 09 07 2024.684 168  17.9  23  272024 09 08 2024.687 171  18.7  20  252024 09 09 2024.690 156  19.9  21  242024 09 10 2024.693 148  12.9  23  292024 09 11 2024.695 152  15.3  27  322024 09 12 2024.698 146  11.6  18  222024 09 13 2024.701 120  10.5  17  21

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt

Looks like a new sunspot region has just emerged, have to see what it does….

[so_whats_happening]

Slightly down for the PDO in August numbers. Probably has to do with some weakening/moving of the warm blob around Japan and the eastern portions (NE PAC) virtually neutral. Let see how it goes into the rest of Fall, probably won't go below -2 the rest of the year without a big surprise which seems unlikely unless we get a very solid -WPO pattern set up.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is the TAO and CPC update for subsurface. Again interesting to see the differences between TAO and CPC even going from 2N-2S to 5N-5S look.

You can see the relaxation in both though through August. The TAO data has less operational buoys in the east (I believe they can turn these on and off remotely, unless they are doing maintenance) so it gives the subsurface depiction a different look from CPC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I mean we’ve been in a default La Niña background pattern for years and nothing has changed in the PAC so……

Aside from the ocassional mismatches that afforded us some wintry reprieves, no....

[brooklynwx99]

the CFS is probably the best case scenario for winter lovers in the east... the Aleutian ridge has much more of a poleward component and allows a bit of a +PNA to develop. I am very skeptical of any kind of prolonged +PNA with the state of the PDO, though this does echo Raindance's 2013-14 analog fairly well

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CFS is probably the best case scenario for winter lovers in the east... the Aleutian ridge has much more of a poleward component and allows a bit of a +PNA to develop. I am very skeptical of any kind of prolonged +PNA with the state of the PDO, though this does echo Raindance's 2013-14 analog fairly well

We have seen some solid PNA stretches....the PNA and PDO do part ways. The more important question is whether or not they are fraudulent, west-baised PNA...like January 2023, or accopanied by a +8SD NAO as they so often have been past 10-15 years.

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have seen some solid PNA stretches....the PNA and PDO due part ways. The more important question is whether or not they are fraudulent, west-baised PNA...like January 2023, or accopanied by a +8SD NAO as they so often have been past 10-15 years.

13-14 wasn't one of my top analogs, though it does have some merit... very similar with solar, and the summer pattern / temps thus far have been very similar

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

13-14 wasn't one of my top analogs, though it does have some merit... very similar with solar and the QBO, and the summer pattern / temps thus far have been very similar

Huge PDO configuration difference. There was a cold pool where the marine heatwave by Japan is now

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Huge PDO configuration difference. There was a cold pool where the marine heatwave by Japan is now

I agree there, it is not a perfect analog by any means, but the similarities also can't be ignored. just one analog out of many, it's worth consideration

I'd probably take it over the strong Ninas like 1998-99 since there's almost no way the Nina gets that strong, even with RONI

[brooklynwx99]

this Nina is also on life support with westerly anomalies forecast across the ENSO basin to close out the month... this will halt the drop in ONI or even lead to a slight warming

wouldn't be shocked if we saw a cold neutral ONI with a weak Nina RONI in the -0.5 to -0.8 range

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CFS is probably the best case scenario for winter lovers in the east... the Aleutian ridge has much more of a poleward component and allows a bit of a +PNA to develop. I am very skeptical of any kind of prolonged +PNA with the state of the PDO, though this does echo Raindance's 2013-14 analog fairly well

Curious if the colder Feb is a reflection of a weaker Nina or cold neutral, as opposed to a stronger event? 

[bluewave]

Can’t really use any years as an ACE comparison to this one. All the other years with this level of activity by Mid-September were due to colder SSTs or El Niños. This is the first time that the Atlantic was this warm and only had 6 named storms by September 15th. The big shift in the ITCZ is probably playing a role.
 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree there, it is not a perfect analog by any means, but the similarities also can't be ignored. just one analog out of many, it's worth consideration

I'd probably take it over the strong Ninas like 1998-99 since there's almost no way the Nina gets that strong, even with RONI

@bluewave did a very good job of explaining why the PAC side did what it did in 13-14. Back in the fall of 2013, HM nailed the very strong +AO/+NAO that winter. He attributed it to the geomag, solar and QBO.
 

The North Atlantic SSTs in the fall were kind of a good giveaway as to what was about to happen too IMO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing this time is that the 500mb low will be near the deepest on record on the West Coast for the month of September. It would be average for the winter. Also record positive 500 mb heights for Eastern Canada. 

I think the cold on the West Coast is partially because we had such a cold trough on the East coast the last few weeks.. We do still need some level of mid latitude cooling in the mix, not just all +pna/-pna.  The heat wave in the SW, US with record streaks of 100+ for Phoenix and Las Vegas will still translate to super warm somewhere as the Fall jet stream gets going. History shows that those conditions there in the Summer do lead to some +PNA conditions in the Wintertime, usually in December, but a lot of times raw temperatures in the SW, US do lead the Midwest and East Coast somewhere down the road.. I'd rather them be cold than warm. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Curious if the colder Feb is a reflection of a weaker Nina or cold neutral, as opposed to a stronger event? 

Not really. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were weak la ninas, and they produced the 2 of the warmest Februarys all-time in the Eastern US.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not really. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were weak la ninas, and they produced the 2 of the warmest Februarys all-time in the Eastern US.

Weak is just a less amplified state of the same thing.. Moderate/Strong ONI's translate to a 100dm Pac ridge in the Winter, while Weak's have translated to a 50dm Pac ridge. Our historical composite is too limited to assume Weak Nina's are automatically cold.. I remember a lot of talk about this in the early 2000s when the historical composite was very cold.. but then yeah, 5/5 of the last Weak Nina's have been warm. "Weak" just means that other factors like the NAO/AO may have larger credence. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Slightly down for the PDO in August numbers. Probably has to do with some weakening/moving of the warm blob around Japan and the eastern portions (NE PAC) virtually neutral. Let see how it goes into the rest of Fall, probably won't go below -2 the rest of the year without a big surprise which seems unlikely unless we get a very solid -WPO pattern set up.

Am I reading that right, -2.88 PDO in August? And the last 4 months have all been below -2.88? Wow! The PDO has a really strong correlation with the N. Hemisphere H5 pattern Oct-Dec. If we see -EPO/-WPO it probably won't be until the Winter imo. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'd probably take it over the strong Ninas like 1998-99 since there's almost no way the Nina gets that strong, even with RONI

I don't think 13-14 is a bad analog, but the probability that it was going extreme did start to come up in the Fall, when the N. Pacific ridge went Polar. We would need to follow that closely imo to see a similar Winter pattern. 

5/6 Winter's lately have been +WPO.. chances are it is more neutral this Winter, and the 21-22 Winter where it was neutral is a decent analog, although the timing of things may be more mixed (We had such an extreme "new" Dec -PNA that Winter that it flipped to +PNA for January). 

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Weak is just a less amplified state of the same thing.. Moderate/Strong ONI's translate to a 100dm Pac ridge in the Winter, while Weak's have translated to a 50dm Pac ridge. Our historical composite is too limited to assume Weak Nina's are automatically cold.. I remember a lot of talk about this in the early 2000s when the historical composite was very cold.. but then yeah, 5/5 of the last Weak Nina's have been warm. "Weak" just means that other factors like the NAO/AO may have larger credence. 

I have the last 5 weak ninas as 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2022-23. Of those 5, both 2008-09 & 2017-18 were colder than normal here. But what really stands out with that group is a good December.