2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get why some feel that way now, but I'm pretty sure that it will move west and into a central/hybrid event.

There’s a few models showing it as a “hybrid” event by winter with the cold anomalies in ENSO regions 3, 3.4 and 4, while 1+2 is neutral 

[Daniel Boone]

19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I do believe that weather derivatives trading does effect the weather.. I'm probably in the minority though. Does anyone know why, probably related to arctic sea ice, a -NAO would correlate with -pna/+epo and +NAO correlates somewhat with +pna/-epo, once the cold season comes about? 

Another thing is sea level height.. I've connected this with subsurface water temps, especially near the thermocline. We've had a classic +NAO pattern according to sea-level height since 2011, while H5 has sometimes featured anomalous ridging near Greenland. 

What about the warm SST'S off Newfoundland Chuck ? As we've seen in recent Winter's a 50-50 just can't get established there. I know this is not the main or sole driver of the -NAO but, does assist.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

42 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

What about the warm SST'S off Newfoundland Chuck ? As we've seen in recent Winter's a 50-50 just can't get established there. I know this is not the main or sole driver of the -NAO but, does assist.

That's a good point. I think the correlation is sea-level height, sometimes reflected by surface SSTs. May-Sept water temps in that region has a strong correlation to the Winter NAO.. right now a custom index I made is coming at about 0.70 (+0.54 SD chance we see DJFM NAO come in around +0.70). Also, October is the only month of the year where the NAO has an opposite correlation to the Winter.. I know we have a big -NAO showing up on models for the end of Sept, but I've never really checked to see if that October opposite correlation runs into late Sept. Right now, I would say it's likely that we have a +NAO Winter. 

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's a good point. I think the correlation is sea-level height, sometimes reflected by surface SSTs. May-Sept water temps in that region has a strong correlation to the Winter NAO.. right now a custom index I made is coming at about 0.70 (+0.54 SD chance we see DJFM NAO come in around +0.70). Also, October is the only month of the year where the NAO has an opposite correlation to the Winter.. I know we have a big -NAO showing up on models for the end of Sept, but I've never really checked to see if that October opposite correlation runs into late Sept. Right now, I would say it's likely that we have a +NAO Winter. 

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season

Just to illustrate my point, you can visualize the zone between the warm/cold SSTs where the jet is going to want to position itself over the North Atlantic 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I said the -NAO/-pna/+epo correlation started in 2013, but when I looked back at cold seasons following the super arctic ice melt in 2007-2012, it appears that correlation was true even back that far.  More cold did make it to the surface in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS though, as bluewave pointed out. That pattern has moderated a lot lately, although last January we saw a pretty good pattern break, having some -NAO-driven cold. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season

Yeah, unless something strange happens it's sure lined up that way.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Just to illustrate my point, you can visualize the zone between the warm/cold SSTs where the jet is going to want to position itself over the North Atlantic 

Oh yeah, clearly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There’s a few models showing it as a “hybrid” event by winter with the cold anomalies in ENSO regions 3, 3.4 and 4, while 1+2 is neutral 

Yea, that's a hybrid event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season

No one in the world anticipates a -NAO in the DM mean....however, if you are suggesting that it will be extremely positive, then I disagree.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one in the world anticipates a -NAO in the DM mean....however, if you are suggesting that it will be extremely positive, than I disagree.

Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. 

Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. 

There's zero nuance. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

January NAO.. Will it be a -PNA October? Pretty good correlation here

The rest of the year NAO correlates at 51-54% with the Winter NAO, but October is the only month of the year where the correlation is <50%.  This is especially true in JFM, where it holds a 55% opposite correlation

[bluewave]

The Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge has been the most dominant feature of the last 9 winters. This is why the Northeast has seen an historic 9 warmer winters in a row. We have never seen a run like this going back to 1950 regardless of what the other teleconnections were doing. So it may be time for a new custom index.

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. 

Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. 

There's zero nuance. 

Well, that has characterized the past few years.....so....

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. 

Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. 

There's zero nuance. 

Stop ruining this thread with your token, useless garbage. Adults are talking in here. Go slither back to the NYC forum and troll there

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one in the world anticipates a -NAO in the DM mean....however, if you are suggesting that it will be extremely positive, then I disagree.

Severely positive, no. But a solidly positive NAO for DJFM? Absolutely 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Severely positive, no. But a solidly positive NAO for DJFM? Absolutely 

Solidly....yes. .50ish+.

We probably see one month average appreciably negative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Stop ruining this thread with your token, useless garbage. Adults are talking in here. Go slither back to the NYC forum and troll there

JMO...but I think not reacting to posts like that will go a long way towards shedding the 5 PPD. I know its tough....its something I have been working on, as well. Its never desirable to allow someone on the internet to elicit a great deal of negative emotion from you because it causes others to view you in a more negative light.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

January NAO.. Will it be a -PNA October? Pretty good correlation here

The rest of the year NAO correlates at 51-54% with the Winter NAO, but October is the only month of the year where the correlation is <50%.  This is especially true in JFM, where it holds a 55% opposite correlation

October -PNA works better than December -PNA here in the mid-Atlantic. Probably would get a backloaded winter out of this, as November and December would be a torch, but hopefully a March 2023-type block in January would lead to cold and snow opportunities in the first 4 months of 2025.

[snowman19]

Not much of a surprise with -ENSO but the model runs back in the spring showing a +IOD were a massive fail

And this solar cycle continues to way overperform

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Looks like August had a -PNA.

2024    8  -1.04

This is good news for the mid-Atlantic. We just need a blocking pattern in November, and we'll be in business for this winter.

[snowman19]

If there is to be an official trimonthly La Niña 24-25, it needs to make moves NOW. We are at the out of time point here. If this slacks off again for any extended period, I think we end up with a cold-neutral winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Huge Omega block being modeled

This fits the pattern that we've seen for the last 5 years

[raindancewx]

Least active September hurricane seasons are an interesting group if we hold on.  Especially in direct opposition to years like 2017 which saw extraordinary activity in September.

Arizona should see quite a bit of rain with Ilena once it dies. Don't think we'll get much at all here.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Least active September hurricane seasons are an interesting group if we hold on.  Especially in direct opposition to years like 2017 which saw extraordinary activity in September.

Arizona should see quite a bit of rain with Ilena once it dies. Don't think we'll get much at all here.

2014 is the only other hurricane season in recent history in the Atlantic to be as inactive as this one. That year only had 2 named storms in September: Dolly and Edouard. Coincidentally, this was the last season to have a later dated first storm than this year. 2014 finished with 8 named storms, making it the least active season in the 21st century.

2014 was an active year in the Pacific. That is certainly not the case this September, with Ilena being the only named storm this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2014 is the only other hurricane season in recent history in the Atlantic to be as inactive as this one. That year only had 2 named storms in September: Dolly and Edouard. Coincidentally, this was the last season to have a later dated first storm than this year. 2014 finished with 8 named storms, making it the least active season in the 21st century.

2014 was an active year in the Pacific. That is certainly not the case this September, with Ilena being the only named storm this month.

I think 2014 is @snowman19's top analog.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2014 is @snowman19's top analog.

Where's your gratuitous  emoji? Lol

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2014 is the only other hurricane season in recent history in the Atlantic to be as inactive as this one. That year only had 2 named storms in September: Dolly and Edouard. Coincidentally, this was the last season to have a later dated first storm than this year. 2014 finished with 8 named storms, making it the least active season in the 21st century.

2014 was an active year in the Pacific. That is certainly not the case this September, with Ilena being the only named storm this month.

 I’ll self impose a 3 ppd ITT limit on myself for the entire month of Dec if 2024 were to not end Nov with season to date ACE 50+ higher than 2014’s total ACE of 67. So, if 2024 doesn’t reach 117+ ACE by Nov 30, I’ll lose this bet. That’s how confident I am that 2024 is no 2014.

 ACE is currently at 60, which is right at the 1991-2020 avg for the date. To compare, 2014 was only at 24 then. What’s giving me a lot of confidence are the consistent Euro Weeklies.

 

 9/12/24 Euro Weeklies mean ACE progs (% of climo for the week) (Euro climo based on 2004-23):

9/16-22: 6 (40%)(has been BN)

9/23-29: 14 (110%)(has been NN)

9/30-10/6: 16 (170%)(has been AN)(16 is climo of peak week of 9/9-15)

10/7-13: 10 (140%)(has been AN)

- So, the week of 9/30-10/6 is forecasted by the current Weeklies to be the busiest in terms of ACE. This run is essentially predicting peak climo ACE 3 weeks late despite 9/30-10/6 climo already being down 40% from its peak!

- As the above shows along with prior runs, the Weeklies have been consistent with a BN late Aug through mid Sept, a NN late Sept, and AN 1st 2 weeks of Oct. So, these signals are rather strong.

- This is the 4th run in a row having 9/30-10/6 the busiest week.

- Including the current week, the Weeklies are forecasting additional ACE of ~47 as of Oct 13. That would get 2024 to ~107. If that were to verify closely, I’d need only ~10 more ACE for the period Oct 14th-Nov 30th.

- With La Niña and a still very warm Atlantic, this shouldn’t be difficult to attain.

[SnoSki14]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that has characterized the past few years.....so....

Yes persistence forecasting has made the guy look like a genius but there's very little nuance in his posts. Lots of biased takes pulled from Twitter too. 

JB looked like a genius too in the snowy 2000s & 2010s Era. He's just anti JB at this point. 

Bluewave and rain do a much better job explaining the rationale behind the warm winters.