2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are also seeing this strong -PNA pattern for the next 15 days as the ENSO subsurface is cooling again.. 30-day SOI finally made it above 10. 

It seems to be re-organizing further west. This is actually quite a west-based cold pool for this time of year. Imo, that could slim the chances for warm ENSO next year. It also makes it more probable that the La Nina tries to become more west-based at the surface in the coming months. 

I'm thinking a more west-based subsurface cold pool/La Nina may actually weaken the chances for a -EPO Winter.. we'll have to see how it evolves in the coming time. Those +SSTAs near Japan are very +WPO. 

All I have going for that counter-argument is that the state of the WPO/EPO usually flips after a long, sustained phase, which have seen on both monthly and yearly scales, and this is the time period where it usually happens. 

The SSTs around Japan are actually ridiculously warm now, right after that TC passage, it warmed right back up and rapidly so. That is a classic +WPO/-PDO signature

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Been many a year that Hudson Bay has seen such cooling this time of year fwiw. Surprisingly, Coral Reef and Oisst agree on it too. Too early to say for sure, but it does suggest a cool to cold Canada this winter reflected on the Cansips and Cfs2 may be in the works.

This is very common in nina winters. The anomalous cold in the cold north and anomalous warmth in the warm south creates some great temp contrasts that add fuel to storms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The SSTs around Japan are actually ridiculously warm now, right after that TC passage, it warmed right back up and rapidly so. That is a classic +WPO/-PDO signature

I think raindance said he expected the WPO to flip in October...wouldn't matter much for most of the east coast, but maybe the NE and def the midwest.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is very common in nina winters. The anomalous cold in the cold north and anomalous warmth in the warm south creates some great temp contrasts that add fuel to storms. 

I don't buy the guidance that furnaces Canada.

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't buy the guidance that furnaces Canada.

I dont either. And one thing we are all guilty of, to some extent, is really focusing on anomaly maps, whether its 2m temps, 850 temps, heights, etc. Its easy to get caught up in the red/orange or blue/purple colors on those maps. Everythings relative. Last year was the 4th warmest winter on record at Detroit, and warmest of my lifetime...but the mean temp would have made it 1.3F COLDER than normal in NYC.

Canada is cold. When Canada is a "furnace", its still, in all actuality, cold. So if we actually do get below normal cold into Canada during winter, ala traditional La Nina, that is a TON of cold air to work with. Even though the northern tier is favored, those from NYC-south who are ready to write off winter should realize how easily they will have their chances if a piece of the polar vortex breaks off, or even get a good arctic front, etc.

[snowman19]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think raindance said he expected the WPO to flip in October...wouldn't matter much for most of the east coast, but maybe the NE and def the midwest.

Hate to disagree, but IMO, as of right now, I very seriously doubt a -WPO/-EPO winter. I think we can both agree that RNA is going to dominate though. Also, as of now, I think +NAO/+AO dominates. Not my final thought however, I’ll give my final guess in November 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes...I was skeptical of that 2 years ago, but I'm now ready to buy that element of CC after getting burned badly. However, I think for New England it’s still not as bad as it appears because there was some bad luck. Mid Atl its game over in that pattern now....and def. more precarious for SNE.

Yeah, I am speaking mainly about NYC Metro coastal with my snow references. The only decent snows over the past 6 seasons occurred with either +PNA-AO or +PNA-EPO extended periods. -PNA-AO just won’t cut it anymore in this much warmer climate which is more prone to Southeast Ridge amplifications.

The beauty of the 20-21 winter is that Dec 1 to January 20th was solid +PNA -AO. So we had the mid-December snowstorm to start out December the right way for snow lovers. Even when the PNA went negative in late January, the trough was still locked into the East from remaining there through January 20th. The great snowstorm at the end of the month had the Southeast Ridge suppression due to the earlier +PNA-AO effect lingering. Then our last decent winter month in January 22 had that MJO 8 +PNA -EPO great NE Pacific blocking pattern.

The dominant -PNA in December 2022 was just too overpowering for coastal NYC Metro even with one of the strongest -AOs for December. March was more of the same but the interior Northeast sections did very well. So you really want to be far enough interior and even higher elevation to be able to cash in when the -PNA is very overpowering. 

[FPizz]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I am speaking mainly about NYC Metro coastal with my snow references. The only decent snows over the past 6 seasons occurred with either +PNA-AO or +PNA-EPO extended periods. -PNA-AO just won’t cut it anymore in this much warmer climate which is more prone to Southeast Ridge amplifications.

The beauty of the 20-21 winter is that Dec 1 to January 20th was solid +PNA -AO. So we had the mid-December snowstorm to start out December the right way for snow lovers. Even when the PNA went negative in late January, the trough was still locked into the East from remaining there through January 20th. The great snowstorm at the end of the month had the Southeast Ridge suppression due to the earlier +PNA-AO effect lingering. Then our last decent winter month in January 22 had that MJO 8 +PNA -EPO great NE Pacific blocking pattern.

The dominant -PNA in December 2022 was just too overpowering for coastal NYC Metro even with one of the strongest -AOs for December. March was more of the same but the interior Northeast sections did very well. So you really want to be far enough interior and even higher elevation to be able to cash in when the -PNA is very overpowering. 

What was Feb of this year?  The one week I got 20.5" of snow and am dead center between NYC and Philly.  I know the one storm was kind of fluky with the thin heavy snow strip, but that could have gotten NYC as well with the 12" if it was 15 miles more north.  

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What was Feb of this year?  The one week I got 20.5" of snow and am dead center between NYC and Philly.  I know the one storm was kind of fluky with the thin heavy snow strip, but that could have gotten NYC as well with the 12" if it was 15 miles more north.  

Thing is, 2023-24 was a strong el nino. Those type of years are wild cards. You never really know what you're going to get with them. You might get a cold and snowy year like 1957-58 or 2009-10, or one that is very warm like 2023-24. Comparing it with the previous 3 years (all moderate la ninas) would be like comparing apples to oranges. La nina years tend to be much more predictable when you know the other surrounding factors.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The more amplified Aleutian Ridge and much warmer Atlantic has made the -PNA -NAO much less favorable than it was back in the older -PDO era. These days any deep trough near the West Coast pumps the Southeast Ridge. In the old days the much cooler SSTs prevented Southeast Ridge formation in most circumstances when the AO and NAO were negative.

I contest that it is something other than +AMO and CC for why the NAO has held this correlation since 2013. It might even have to do with Summer arctic ice melt, as Greenland has held its core, and the Pacific side has gone completely iceless.. The lowest Summer arctic ice melt was 2012, then the -NAO starts connecting with dual-ridging (either over N. America or -PNA) in 2013, and carries it from that point forward, even intensifying after 2017. We see an ice melt season that is almost #2 this year, then there is this big -NAO/-PNA pattern once the cold season starts progressing on the Northern Hemisphere. It's almost like a "stop" is in place, and there is dual-ridging around Greenland at other times of the year (if someone has a more scientific reason, come forth). 

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I contest that it is something other than +AMO and CC for why the NAO has held this correlation since 2013. It might even have to do with Summer arctic ice melt, as Greenland has held its core, and the Pacific side has gone completely iceless.. The lowest Summer arctic ice melt was 2012, then the -NAO starts connecting with dual-ridging (either over N. America or -PNA) in 2013, and carries it from that point forward, even intensifying after 18-19. We see an ice melt season that is almost #2 this year, then there is this big -NAO/-PNA pattern once the cold season starts progressing on the Northern Hemisphere. It's almost like a "stop" is in place, and there is dual-ridging around Greenland at other times of the year (if someone has a more scientific reason, come forth). 

I think the record low arctic sea ice is contributing to the NAO’s behavior in recent winters

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think the record low arctic sea ice is contributing to the NAO’s behavior in recent winters

I do believe that weather derivatives trading does effect the weather.. I'm probably in the minority though. Does anyone know why, probably related to arctic sea ice, a -NAO would correlate with -pna/+epo and +NAO correlates somewhat with +pna/-epo, once the cold season comes about? 

Another thing is sea level height.. I've connected this with subsurface water temps, especially near the thermocline. We've had a classic +NAO pattern according to sea-level height since 2011, while H5 has sometimes featured anomalous ridging near Greenland. 

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think raindance said he expected the WPO to flip in October...wouldn't matter much for most of the east coast, but maybe the NE and def the midwest.

Yeah I'll buy whatever he's selling, dude's been killing it for years now.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, FPizz said:

What was Feb of this year?  The one week I got 20.5" of snow and am dead center between NYC and Philly.  I know the one storm was kind of fluky with the thin heavy snow strip, but that could have gotten NYC as well with the 12" if it was 15 miles more north.  

February 16-17th was a strong -EPO+PNA like I mentioned as being favorable for snow in our area. It wasn’t a hostile -PNA pattern. But the issue is that these transient favorable patterns that I mentioned can be too brief for more than a few highly localized decent snows like that narrow corridor in NJ got. The favorability window was just too brief for a great area wide event. That’s why in our local thread last winter I was talking about that brief window of opportunity as the forcing finally shifted well east of the Dateline closer to an MJO 8 configuration.  We literally had one week to work with in mid-February and it was in the 60s before and after this period. Very hard for widespread parts of the area to reach normal snowfall with such a short period to work with. 

Many more places did better in the Jan 2022 +PNA -EPO since it was a month long pattern. The big issue is that these Pacific patterns turned more hostile in 18-19. So the only above average snowfall season in NYC in the last 6 years was 20-21. We had that great +PNA -AO-NAO pattern. Even though the snowfall outcome was the best of the decade so far, it was still a warmer than average winter in our area. This is how we have put together a record breaking 9 warmer than normal winters in a row.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah I'll buy whatever he's selling, dude's been killing it for years now.

I'm not as gung-ho as he is....really not a fan of the 2013 analog that he loves...but hopefully he's right again.

He is hands-down the best seasonal forecast that I have ever read or interacted with.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I contest that it is something other than +AMO and CC for why the NAO has held this correlation since 2013. It might even have to do with Summer arctic ice melt, as Greenland has held its core, and the Pacific side has gone completely iceless.. The lowest Summer arctic ice melt was 2012, then the -NAO starts connecting with dual-ridging (either over N. America or -PNA) in 2013, and carries it from that point forward, even intensifying after 2017. We see an ice melt season that is almost #2 this year, then there is this big -NAO/-PNA pattern once the cold season starts progressing on the Northern Hemisphere. It's almost like a "stop" is in place, and there is dual-ridging around Greenland at other times of the year (if someone has a more scientific reason, come forth). 

These south based blocks linking up with the Southeast Ridge didn’t really become more common until the 2020s. We seldom had issues with these during the epic snowfall run from 09-10 to 17-18. Teleconnections don’t operate in a vacuum as they are influenced by our warming climate as these competing marine heatwaves expand their coverage. As I have shown these recent -PDO -PNA -AOs -NAOs are much warmer and less snowy than their counterparts from the 1950s into the 1970s. 

[mitchnick]

Don't think it was posted. Updated JMA Dec-Feb.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

Edit: A little AN 850 temps in the east. VERBATIM, not a winter killer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These south based blocks linking up with the Southeast Ridge didn’t really become more common until the 2020s. We seldom had issues with these during the epic snowfall run from 09-10 to 17-18. Teleconnections don’t operate in a vacuum as they are influenced by our warming climate as these competing marine heatwaves expand their coverage. As I have shown these recent -PDO -PNA -AOs -NAOs are much warmer and less snowy than their counterparts from the 1950s into the 1970s. 

We have raindance optimistic for the east...if we could ever get you on board in October, I think I'd travel to Times Square and do nude handstands in traffic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't think it was posted. Updated JMA Dec-Feb.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

Edit: A little AN 850 temps in the east. VERBATIM, not a winter killer.

I broke my neck trying to interpret that relative to the east coast, but that looks pretty gradient laden.....PV is really elongated se, so NE would probably make out well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Common theme I have seen on seasonal guidance is active N stream, which makes sense given ENSO.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have raindance optimistic for the east...if we could ever get you on board in October, I think I'd travel to Times Square and do nude handstands in traffic.

All you would need to do is build a snowman in Times Square if we could ever get such a favorable Atlantic and Pacific pattern again in the coming winters like Jan 16.

 

 

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As depicted, very clearly not an east-based Niña despite what Twitter may be saying….

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As depicted, very clearly not an east-based Niña despite what Twitter may be saying….

I get why some feel that way now, but I'm pretty sure that it will move west and into a central/hybrid event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All you would need to do is build a snowman in Times Square if we could ever get such a favorable Atlantic and Pacific pattern again in the coming winters like Jan 16.

 

 

Pissah video.

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All you would need to do is build a snowman in Times Square if we could ever get such a favorable Atlantic and Pacific pattern again in the coming winters like Jan 16.

 

 

I wonder if the film was a little longer, it would have turned to sleet/zr? 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I wonder if the film was a little longer, it would have turned to sleet/zr? 

If it was 2024, everyone would be high   That was a great storm though.  

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I broke my neck trying to interpret that relative to the east coast, but that looks pretty gradient laden.....PV is really elongated se, so NE would probably make out well.

Agreed. But if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks to have a trough over Japan which usually corresponds to a trough in the east. But the JMA did have a canonical Niño trough in the east last year and we know how that turned out.

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Agreed. But if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks to have a trough over Japan which usually corresponds to a trough in the east. But the JMA did have a canonical Niño trough in the east last year and we know how that turned out.

A trough over Japan with SSTs this warm? Color me very skeptical. While there is certainly validity to the “pattern causes the SSTs” argument, when you have SSTs this anomalously warm, they start feeding back into the long wave pattern. @bluewave

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A trough over Japan with SSTs this warm? Color me very skeptical. While there is certainly validity to the “pattern causes the SSTs” argument, when you have SSTs this anomalously warm, they start feeding back into the long wave pattern. @bluewave

First of all, it's the JMA's first look at the winter, so nobody should take it too seriously. And like I said, the JMA's forecast from last year wasn't so hot. That said, the warm waters around Japan have got to moderate at some point, and a persistent trough at 500mb this winter could be the starting point. Who knows.