2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I probably wouldn't expect something too hot. The trend for the last 20 years has been a trough in the east/ridge in the west during the Summertime. Last year that pattern really changed, and I think we will see some year-to-year lingering effects from that this Summer. And the SW, US was +2F over their previous record last Summer! And is going to likely have a hot Spring, so some of that usually comes east +time.. I would at least expect an above average Summer in the east, and maybe comfortably so. 

[bluewave]

On 4/17/2025 at 1:52 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, in my Winter forecast I got the state of 10mb correct (from +QBO and La Nina), but didn't get that it would translate to -AO at the surface.. about 75% of the time the AO is the same state as 10mb. 

Maybe the lack of coupling was related to what happened last summer.

 

 

[snowman19]

If the projected summer global picture (cold-neutral “Nada” ENSO coming off a La Niña, -QBO, -PMM, -PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity) continues into the fall, I have a feeling that the winter forecast is not going to be a cut and dry easy one at all, not that any of them ever really are, but this one may be exceptionally difficult 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the projected summer global picture (cold-neutral “Nada” ENSO coming off a La Niña, -QBO, -PMM, -PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity) continues into the fall, I have a feeling that the winter forecast is not going to be a cut and dry easy one at all, not that any of them ever really are, but this one may be exceptionally difficult 

Those conditions sound a lot like 2013, which of course produced a widespread cold and snowy winter in the Eastern United States.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If the projected summer global picture (cold-neutral “Nada” ENSO coming off a La Niña, -QBO, -PMM, -PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity) continues into the fall, I have a feeling that the winter forecast is not going to be a cut and dry easy one at all, not that any of them ever really are, but this one may be exceptionally difficult 

cold neutral after la nina has historically resulted in some of our warmer winters and lower snowfall totals

1989-90 and 2001-02 come to mind

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

cold neutral after la nina has historically resulted in some of our warmer winters and lower snowfall totals

1989-90 and 2001-02 come to mind

 

-Those 2 produced each had a major SE snow.

-85-6 had deep SE snows

-Nov 1950 had alltime record Nov cold in SE

-Other: 1996-7 had nothing overly notable in SE