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2024-2025 La Nina


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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who hyped this? I think maybe JB....but I didn't see anyone else. Judah never did...I though it would be useless daying back to last fall.

He has an unhealthy obsession with JB.  JB gets like 1 reply on his X posts.  No one cares about him anymore.

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

He has an unhealthy obsession with JB.  JB gets like 1 reply on his X posts.  No one cares about him anymore.

JB has always had his cold/snowy bias, but he hasnt been relevant in years. I dont think anyone actually takes him seriously anymore lol. Following anyone (whether its via weather forums, twitter, social media weather pages, etc) with a long enough posting history makes it pretty easy to see who has the cold biases, who has the warm biases, and who is very neutral/unbiased. I follow the neutral guys closely and dismiss the rest.

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Stratosphere warming is still going strong.. one of the strongest ones in history, actually, because it's having these +1800dm anomalies cover 3-4 weeks. I think the highest I ever saw 10mb get historically on a daily was +2900dm. 

Latest daily map

1A-88.gif

3-10 is about when it started.. last 22 days:

1aa-40.gif

It will probably last for another week. 

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18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

After all the SSWE hype the end of February and throughout March, the mid-March event failed to couple, as was the case with every other stratospheric wave reflection and stretching event that has occurred since November. The stratosphere and troposphere have remained totally uncoupled
 

'It shows that the stratosphere is not an overpowering force that can be relied upon for anticipating surface weather tendencies 3+ weeks ahead.' 

I feel this is not the best take with this as sometimes it does actually overwhelm the troposphere and dictates what the setup looks like, it does not happen often as to expect it with every stratospheric warming event but it happens enough to be noticeable. There is still a lot to be learned about how the different layers interact with each other and will be interesting to learn as we go on, Don has pointed this out in several posts as well.

My best take with everything stratosphere is typically it is started through patterns evolving within the troposphere that leads to these stratospheric disruptions, whether it is a split over a large wave 1 displacement that destroys the SPV is up to how everything evolves. We saw this year just like last year we had a fairly large wave 1 displacement leading to the weakening (this year being a total quick destruction) of the SPV.

The pattern at 500mb then evolves over time to the familiar we usually associate with warm west/ cool east and that stratospheric warming can either enhance/ lock this pattern or let it play out and evolve to a relaxation period which typically allows for flattening out or a flip flop of cool west/ warm east.

While we have been analyzing the balance between the 2 layers many have definitely noticed there have been on several occasions these 2 layers do not always move in tandem but when they lock in together in either direction they typically really lock in. Impressive chart this year to say the least this reversal was strong even for a wave 1 event from record setting levels at 60N to creating a record on the opposite end.

u60n_50_2024_merra2.pdf

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^It's one of the highest correlations I've ever done on the NOAA Physical science maps.  If you have the time, I highly recommend that people go back to 1948 (the start of their dataset) and look at all cold season 10mb events vs the 500mb pattern. What I found is spectacular!

The Stratosphere warming (+10mb geopotential height) signal translates to -NAO at different times of the year:

October: +60 days

November: +45 days

December: +30 days

January: +25 days

February: +20 days

March: +15 days

April: +10-15 days

The mean for daily composites in the allotted times was as high as a +120dm -NAO mean signal! 

For cold Stratosphere times (-10mb geopotential height), it's not the same as a warming! The effect on the surface and 500mb is immediate!

October: + 0 days

November: + 0 days

December + 0 days

January: + 0 days

February: + 0 days

March-April: + 0 days

We are still mastering science, and I expect improvements with further research, but the basic reading is already a high correlated factor, generally.  This particular one is not hitting it besides a 3-4 day period though. Not really surprising because we had so many strong/near record breaking +NAO periods in 2024. 

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