2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If you remember, we had record warm SSTs across the Atlantic early last Hurricane season. I made that chart in February 2024 I think, and it was smoothed out, so the cutoff had to be 2023. But if you include last year, it would look like this:

Ok, gotcha. In that case, I agree that we haven't began to see the transition, but it should be fairly imminent.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-NAO on models from the Stratosphere warming.. +15 days is about perfect time lag for this time of year

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-NAO on models from the Stratosphere warming.. +15 days is about perfect time lag for this time of year

As a result of this strengthening -NAO, today’s Euro Weeklies have cooled a lot just since yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 (Masters Week):

Yesterday’s run for 4/7-13

 

Today run for 4/7-13

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As a result of this strengthening -NAO, today’s Euro Weeklies have cooled a lot just since yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 (Masters Week):

Yesterday’s run for 4/7-13

Today run for 4/7-13

Thanks.. it's fitting the average time lag about perfectly this time (+15 days in April vs +45-60 days in Oct/Nov!) I wonder if models have a bias at all regarding SSW's and following -NAO's.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC is actually going really aggressive on -NAO based cold from/after Stratosphere warming. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea...I figured the late SSW would manifest in April, which is why I wasn't opptimistic about March....too little too late. Same thing happened in 2000.