PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 8 hours ago, GaWx said: I haven’t yet because I’m following up prior posts ITT (continuity), including the current strat. reversal along with any potential after effects and also mid-March is still early to completely move on to 2025-6. After all, some like to get through March as the end of the cold season before completely moving on. I don’t see any harm in having two active threads for the next few weeks or so, which has already been the case for a number of weeks. I think we need to unpin and close the 2023-24 el nino thread (don't know why that one is still pinned), and merge the 2025-26 ENSO threads into one and pin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 The Stratosphere lag that I was talking about looks to be hitting, as models are trending toward more -NAO for the last week of March. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html They didn't have that before. It would be interesting to see what LR model biases are when a Stratosphere warming happens weeks before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The Stratosphere lag that I was talking about looks to be hitting, as models are trending toward more -NAO for the last week of March. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html They didn't have that before. It would be interesting to see what LR model biases are when a Stratosphere warming happens weeks before. The EPS/GEFS both still have 2 more strong reversals to go this month, 3/19 and 3/28-9, with both at new records vs current lows of -16 to -17: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, GaWx said: The EPS/GEFS both still have 2 more strong reversals to go this month, 3/19 and 3/28-9, with both at new records vs current lows of -16 to -17: -NAO may continue into the 2nd week of April.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 This is the start of a legit warming btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 On 3/14/2025 at 3:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said: the other way to look at that vicious cycle is that humanity has no f'n clue how it's actions will ultimately effect the global system. oh we have an idea... but the details are unknown, and that is where the bombs detonate. like ... taking out sulfer dioxide making co2 heat absorption more efficient ... triggering a global thermal burst. what the hell else has no prediction that's yet to be discovered - weee the greatest natural disaster ever to befall this planet's history may in fact turn out to be the arrival of human innovation oh we might be putting sulfur dioxide back in starting in 2030 to attempt global cooling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -NAO may continue into the 2nd week of April.. so cold and rainy for the next 4 weeks, that's absolutely horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 On 3/13/2025 at 10:28 AM, bluewave said: Part of the challenge in conveying that these winters just aren’t as cold as the used to be is making the bar lower for what constitutes a cold winter. Updating the climate normals every 10 years normalizes how much warmer the winters are getting. The NOAA NCEI should probably settle on a baseline from before the rapid increase in temperatures prior to 1980 like NASA, Berkeley Earth, and other centers do for determining the global temperatures.The record winter warmth in recent years made this winter seem like a cold one in comparison. But the actual temperature rankings place this winter closer to the old average or even warmer. Near normal around here per 1971-2000 climb is actually a little cooler than I would have guessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 18z GEFS has a lot of "downwelled warmth" from the Stratsphere warming Days 10+ north of 60N in the northern hemisphere. That kind of a signal should correlate with at least a weak -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z GEFS has a lot of "downwelled warmth" from the Stratsphere warming Days 10+ north of 60N in the northern hemisphere. That kind of a signal should correlate with at least a weak -NAO. Agree.....I think some good news for ski country, maybe...but just some dreary weather for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Near normal around here per 1971-2000 climb is actually a little cooler than I would have guessed. For the Northeast it was -1.2° using 1991-2020, -0.3 using 1981-2010, +0.5 using 1971-2000, and +1.8° using 1961-1990. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2024-25 is the first below average winter at PHL using 1981-2010 since 2014-15. Below average winters and summers since winter 2009-10 (using 1981-2010 averages): Winters: 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2024-25 Summers: 2014 (by 0.2F), 2023 (by 0.1F, but the JAS average is above the summer/JJA average) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 The NWS/Weather Bureau has been using 30 year averages since the 1930s, nearly 100 years. It's a way to capture recent trends in weather patterns for any one area. It doesn't erase the past data, but it's updated every 10 years to reflect those trends. So I see no reason why some are against using the current normals. I mean, if you want to use entire period of record, that's cool too. But let's not use the 30 year normals until the unusually cold 1960s and 1970s are erased then suddenly stop so we don't captured the mild winters of the mid 20th century . For Detroit, this winter of 2024-25 was: -0.9° using 1991-2020 avg -0.2° using 1981-2010 avg +0.7° using 1971-2000 avg +1.8° using 1961-1990 avg +1.1° using 1951-1980 avg +0.3° using 1941-1970 avg -0.4° using 1931-1960 avg -0.1° using 1921-1950 avg +0.7° using 1911-1940 avg +1.7° using 1901-1930 avg +0.5° using POR 1874-2025 avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 The actual temperature rankings for the entire CONUS finished the winter on the warmer side since 1895. Since recent winters were so much warmer, this winter felt very cold in comparison. The CONUS had 6 winters since 15-16 finish within the top 22 warmest of all winters. But the last time the CONUS had a 22nd coldest winter was back in 09-10. Have to go back to the late 70s for a top 10 coldest winter. So you can see how using departures in a rapidly warming climate fails to provide an accurate perspective. December 24…..4th warmest January 25………33rd coldest February 25……..48th warmest DJF 24-25……….27th warmest 23-24…..1st warmest winter 15-16….. 2nd warmest winter 19-20…..7th warmest winter 16-17…..9th warmest winter 22-23…18th warmest winter 21-22….21st warmest winter 78-79…..1st coldest winter 77-78…..7th coldest winter 76-77…..12th coldest winter 83-84…..18th coldest winter 84-85…..20th coldest winter 09-10….22nd coldest winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 3 hours ago, bluewave said: For the Northeast it was -1.2° using 1991-2020, -0.3 using 1981-2010, +0.5 using 1971-2000, and +1.8° using 1961-1990. Yea, I'm not arguing your point...to the contrary, as the cold was consistent, but not very impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The actual temperature rankings for the entire CONUS finished the winter on the warmer side since 1895. Since recent winters were so much warmer, this winter felt very cold in comparison. The CONUS had 6 winters since 15-16 finish within the top 22 warmest of all winters. But the last time the CONUS had a 22nd coldest winter was back in 09-10. Have to go back to the late 70s for a top 10 coldest winter. So you can see how using departures in a rapidly warming climate fails to provide an accurate perspective. December 24…..4th warmest January 25………33rd coldest February 25……..48th warmest DJF 24-25……….27th warmest 23-24…..1st warmest winter 15-16….. 2nd warmest winter 19-20…..7th warmest winter 16-17…..9th warmest winter 22-23…18th warmest winter 21-22….21st warmest winter 78-79…..1st coldest winter 77-78…..7th coldest winter 76-77…..12th coldest winter 83-84…..18th coldest winter 84-85…..20th coldest winter 09-10….22nd coldest winter I think the vast majority of folks posting on a forum like this are privy to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 4 hours ago, bluewave said: For the Northeast it was -1.2° using 1991-2020, -0.3 using 1981-2010, +0.5 using 1971-2000, and +1.8° using 1961-1990. what about using 1951-80 Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The actual temperature rankings for the entire CONUS finished the winter on the warmer side since 1895. Since recent winters were so much warmer, this winter felt very cold in comparison. The CONUS had 6 winters since 15-16 finish within the top 22 warmest of all winters. But the last time the CONUS had a 22nd coldest winter was back in 09-10. Have to go back to the late 70s for a top 10 coldest winter. So you can see how using departures in a rapidly warming climate fails to provide an accurate perspective. December 24…..4th warmest January 25………33rd coldest February 25……..48th warmest DJF 24-25……….27th warmest 23-24…..1st warmest winter 15-16….. 2nd warmest winter 19-20…..7th warmest winter 16-17…..9th warmest winter 22-23…18th warmest winter 21-22….21st warmest winter 78-79…..1st coldest winter 77-78…..7th coldest winter 76-77…..12th coldest winter 83-84…..18th coldest winter 84-85…..20th coldest winter 09-10….22nd coldest winter I'm shocked 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 aren't in the top 20 coldest list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: The NWS/Weather Bureau has been using 30 year averages since the 1930s, nearly 100 years. It's a way to capture recent trends in weather patterns for any one area. It doesn't erase the past data, but it's updated every 10 years to reflect those trends. So I see no reason why some are against using the current normals. I mean, if you want to use entire period of record, that's cool too. But let's not use the 30 year normals until the unusually cold 1960s and 1970s are erased then suddenly stop so we don't captured the mild winters of the mid 20th century . For Detroit, this winter of 2024-25 was: -0.9° using 1991-2020 avg -0.2° using 1981-2010 avg +0.7° using 1971-2000 avg +1.8° using 1961-1990 avg +1.1° using 1951-1980 avg +0.3° using 1941-1970 avg -0.4° using 1931-1960 avg -0.1° using 1921-1950 avg +0.7° using 1911-1940 avg +1.7° using 1901-1930 avg +0.5° using POR 1874-2025 avg The Metro airport obs only go back to 1958. Prior data probably isn't representative of the airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: The NWS/Weather Bureau has been using 30 year averages since the 1930s, nearly 100 years. It's a way to capture recent trends in weather patterns for any one area. It doesn't erase the past data, but it's updated every 10 years to reflect those trends. So I see no reason why some are against using the current normals. I mean, if you want to use entire period of record, that's cool too. But let's not use the 30 year normals until the unusually cold 1960s and 1970s are erased then suddenly stop so we don't captured the mild winters of the mid 20th century . For Detroit, this winter of 2024-25 was: -0.9° using 1991-2020 avg -0.2° using 1981-2010 avg +0.7° using 1971-2000 avg +1.8° using 1961-1990 avg +1.1° using 1951-1980 avg +0.3° using 1941-1970 avg -0.4° using 1931-1960 avg -0.1° using 1921-1950 avg +0.7° using 1911-1940 avg +1.7° using 1901-1930 avg +0.5° using POR 1874-2025 avg NOAA uses 1951-80 as an established baseline to compare future climate trends. In other words, that's considered the *normal* climate (for better or worse, but we have to start somewhere.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 2024-25 is the first below average winter at PHL using 1981-2010 since 2014-15. Below average winters and summers since winter 2009-10 (using 1981-2010 averages): Winters: 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2024-25 Summers: 2014 (by 0.2F), 2023 (by 0.1F, but the JAS average is above the summer/JJA average) all the other ones in that list were much snowier =\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The actual temperature rankings for the entire CONUS finished the winter on the warmer side since 1895. Since recent winters were so much warmer, this winter felt very cold in comparison. The CONUS had 6 winters since 15-16 finish within the top 22 warmest of all winters. But the last time the CONUS had a 22nd coldest winter was back in 09-10. Have to go back to the late 70s for a top 10 coldest winter. So you can see how using departures in a rapidly warming climate fails to provide an accurate perspective. December 24…..4th warmest January 25………33rd coldest February 25……..48th warmest DJF 24-25……….27th warmest 23-24…..1st warmest winter 15-16….. 2nd warmest winter 19-20…..7th warmest winter 16-17…..9th warmest winter 22-23…18th warmest winter 21-22….21st warmest winter 78-79…..1st coldest winter 77-78…..7th coldest winter 76-77…..12th coldest winter 83-84…..18th coldest winter 84-85…..20th coldest winter 09-10….22nd coldest winter Just to add, when you say "it feels colder because..." and then talk about CONUS ranks that cancels each other out. An individual experiences winter at their location only, not the entire CONUS. If someone experienced a cold winter in Montana they couldn't care less it was a warm winter in Arizona, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 hour ago, chubbs said: The Metro airport obs only go back to 1958. Prior data probably isn't representative of the airport. Most climate site deals with moves over the course of the climate period. Just one of those things in the climate record. Roads were dirt in the 1870s. DTW airport had much better radiational cooling in the 1960s-80s before the airport expanded to its current status. You just have to deal with the changes as part of the climate record, rather than pick and choose the ones we like and don't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: NOAA uses 1951-80 as an established baseline to compare future climate trends. In other words, that's considered the *normal* climate (for better or worse, but we have to start somewhere.) Never knew that. Seems odd to me. That's a colder and less snowy climate for me then todays 1991-2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Just to add, when you say "it feels colder because..." and then talk about CONUS ranks that cancels each other out. An individual experiences winter at their location only, not the entire CONUS. If someone experienced a cold winter in Montana they couldn't care less it was a warm winter in Arizona, and vice versa. The bar naturally gets lower when discussing how cold it feels since recent winters have been warming so fast. This winter was actually cold in some regions during January and February. But overall it was a pretty mild winter collectively across the entire CONUS. Since the geographic footprint of the Arctic air coverage has been shrinking over the years. So it’s harder for a cold month in one geographic region to be expansive enough to be a cold one in another region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I'm shocked 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 aren't in the top 20 coldest list. vs 1895-2000 mean: -1993-4 was cold mainly only in the NE and Midwest. The South was NN and the West was mainly AN -1995-6 was cool in the E US but mild in the W US -2002-3 and 2003-4 were cool in the E 1/3 but were mild in the W 2/3 -2004-5 was mild in almost the entire lower 48 -2010-1 was cool to cold in most of the E 1-2 but mild in N New England and the W 1/3 -2013-4 was very cold in the Midwest but was NN in much of the E and SE and was mild in FL and the W 1/3 2014-5 was cool in the E 1/3 but mild in the W 2/3 It appears that these rankings are based on surface area rather than being population weighted. If it were pop weighted, most of these would be higher ranked since BN was most concentrated over densely pop areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: vs 1895-2000 mean: -1993-4 was cold mainly only in the NE and Midwest. The South was NN and the West was mainly AN -1995-6 was cool in the E US but mild in the W US -2002-3 and 2003-4 were cool in the E 1/3 but were mild in the W 2/3 -2010-1 was cool to cold in most of the E 1-2 but mild in N New England and the W 1/3 -2013-4 was very cold in the Midwest but was NN in much of the E and SE and was mild in Fl and the W 1/3 2014-5 was cool in the E 1/3 but mild in the W 2/3 It appears that these rankings are based on areal coverage rather than being population weighted. If it were pop weighted, most of these would be higher ranked since BN was most concentrated over densely pop areas. Definitely and I remember 1995-96 was extremely cold in the Midwest too-- longstanding records were set in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Definitely and I remember 1995-96 was extremely cold in the Midwest too-- longstanding records were set in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin. DJF 1995-6 vs 1895-2000 averages actually wasn’t all that cold even in the Midwest: cold but nothing too extreme 1978-9 is an example of extreme cold in the Midwest: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: DJF 1995-6 vs 1895-2000 averages actually wasn’t all that cold even in the Midwest: cold but nothing too extreme 1978-9 is an example of extreme cold in the Midwest: wow I'm surprised all I heard coming out of the Midwest is how historic the arctic outbreak in February was and that was what brought our winter back after the January thaw, Over here in NYC we were below normal all three winter months (and March too) I was surprised to see it was only a little below normal with temperatures. It seems that here in the NE our snowfall is more dependent on storm track and less on temperatures. Even here in the southernmost part of the NE. And that's what most winter lovers care about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: The bar naturally gets lower when discussing how cold it feels since recent winters have been warming so fast. This winter was actually cold in some regions during January and February. But overall it was a pretty mild winter collectively across the entire CONUS. Since the geographic footprint of the Arctic air coverage has been shrinking over the years. So it’s harder for a cold month in one geographic region to be expansive enough to be a cold one in another region. But what I'm saying is noting how cold or warm the conus is is totally irrelevant to how someone perceived their winter any individual location. It goes without saying that how cold anyone felt their winter was at their location is best gauged by how it compares to their climate record and their recent winters, not the CONUS. A cold winter by new york city 1951-80 standards would still be a mild winter in Detroit by 1991-20 standards. To say nothing of the recent cold winters in already cold upper midwest/plains and the warmth in already warm snowless places like Florida and Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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