2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The snowbelts off Erie and Ontario did very well. Had 175" in the southtowns of Buffalo. Crazy the difference between my home to airport. It's about a 20 minute drive from Hamburg to Buffalo airport and 100" difference in snow totals.

 

Yeah, such a fast and active Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and record Great Lakes warmth gave your area very impressive snowfall totals.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Scandinavia loading pattern at the very end of 12z GEFS, March 24th. That is aligned with Stratosphere warming for possibly -NAO last few days of the month into early April.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro is down to -21 mean on 3/12 (40 BN) and still suggests this would likely be a very early FW like in 2016. But the accompanying 2m maps still show no week long dominated BN period afterward:

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 I see Joe Bastardi is doing his usual yearly March, “spring is going to be delayed, deep winter is coming back in the east, major cold and major snow is just around the corner for 3/20-4/15” routine. As predictable as the rising sun…..

 He’s still forecasting BN temp. domination 3/20-4/15. We shall see. Todays Euro Weeklies have mainly NN to AN most weeks but check out 3/31-4/6:

Run from 3/5:

Run from 3/8 (latest): pretty big change

 

3/8 run at H5: there’s a moderate -NAO/-AO signal then

 

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 has continued to warm overall with the latest being +0.187 per OISST and -0.059 per CDAS.

 

Also, though still lagging, OHC has been rapidly warming and is ~-0.45 as of the latest:

[roardog]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 He’s still forecasting BN temp. domination 3/20-4/15. We shall see. Todays Euro Weeklies have mainly NN to AN most weeks but check out 3/31-4/6:

Run from 3/5:

Run from 3/8 (latest): pretty big change

 

3/8 run at H5: there’s a moderate -NAO/-AO signal then

 

He’s been saying if his ideas are right it should warm up after that and lead to a warm May nationally and a hot summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/9/2025 at 12:58 AM, GaWx said:

 He’s still forecasting BN temp. domination 3/20-4/15. We shall see. Todays Euro Weeklies have mainly NN to AN most weeks but check out 3/31-4/6:

Run from 3/5:

Run from 3/8 (latest): pretty big change

 

3/8 run at H5: there’s a moderate -NAO/-AO signal then

 

I only due DM forecasts, but a cooler April certainly wouldn't shock me given the later nature of this SSW.

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I only due DM forecasts, but a cooler April certainly wouldn't shock me given the later nature of this SSW.

I can see a cooler April maybe but as far as the Mark Margavage and Joe Bastardi wishcasts that deep winter is coming back for the east, cold and snow the end of this month into April…….they need to put down their crack pipes…….

[bluewave]

I was able to create some custom charts to illustrate exactly how Philly to Boston had such low snowfall despite what used to be considered favorable teleconnections for snow before the 2020s. As I have shown in past posts, the Northern stream Pacific Jet has been a record levels since 18-19.

But past instances with such a strong +PNA -EPO and -5 daily -AO had a relaxation of this jet. But not this time. You can see on the 11 days with .25 or greater precipitation around NYC how overpowering the Pacific Jet was. So the average temperature on these days was 41° which was too warm for heavy snow. Even though the average winter temperature was 34.8°. We again see the Southeast Ridge linking up with the Greenland -AO block on the storm days. 

So we are finding out that low seasonal snowfall totals can be the result of warmer storm tracks even in a seasonable average cold.

11 day winter storm composites for all the days with .25 or more of precipitation

 

 

[GaWx]

26FEB2025     27.5 1.1     27.0 0.3     26.7-0.2     27.5-0.6
 05MAR2025     28.1 1.6     27.4 0.5     27.0 0.0     27.8-0.3

 So, the latest week being reported (last calendar week) shows all regions warmed with Nino 3.4 up to 0.0 and Nino 1+2 up to a whopping +1.6. But keep in mind that these aren’t taking into account the relatively warm surrounding tropical/global waters like RONI does. So, one may want to subtract ~0.5 to 0.6 to get a better picture of the situation. Regardless, the trends have been clearly warmer and Nino 1+2, itself, would still be in moderate Nino territory and Nino 3 would be up to neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can see a cooler April maybe but as far as the Mark Margavage and Joe Bastardi wishcasts that deep winter is coming back for the east, cold and snow the end of this month into April…….they need to put down their crack pipes…….

Yes. I never expect this late SSW to mean much for the east coast, except for a potentially shitty early spring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was able to create some custom charts to illustrate exactly how Philly to Boston had such low snowfall despite what used to be considered favorable teleconnections for snow before the 2020s. As I have shown in past posts, the Northern stream Pacific Jet has been a record levels since 18-19.

But past instances with such a strong +PNA -EPO and -5 daily -AO had a relaxation of this jet. But not this time. You can see on the 11 days with .25 or greater precipitation around NYC how overpowering the Pacific Jet was. So the average temperature on these days was 41° which was too warm for heavy snow. Even though the average winter temperature was 34.8°. We again see the Southeast Ridge linking up with the Greenland -AO block on the storm days. 

So we are finding out that low seasonal snowfall totals can be the result of warmer storm tracks even in a seasonable average cold.

11 day winter storm composites for all the days with .25 or more of precipitation

 

 

I don't think that is breaking news or anything new...I know you disagree and that is fine. But there have been cold winters that didn't feature much snowfall in the past. I'm sure you are going to point out differences with respect to the Pacific jet......I don't argue that perhaps CC make us more susecptible to that, but its going to take many years of data for me to conclude that this will be the rule moving forward. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think that is breaking news or anything new...I know you disagree and that is fine. But there have been cold winters that didn't feature much snowfall in the past. I'm sure you are going to point out differences with respect to the Pacific jet......I don't argue that perhaps CC make us more susecptible to that, but its going to take many years of data for me to conclude that this will be the rule moving forward. 

I never said anything about rules moving forward since my philosophy is always to take one winter at a time. Unfortunately, we don’t have multiyear storm track forecasts. But we can know with certainty what has happened up to this point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never said anything about rules moving forward since my philosophy is always to take one winter at a time. Unfortunately, we don’t have multiyear storm track forecasts. But we can know with certainty what has happened up to this point. 

Fair enough.

Yes, the active jet has been a probelm the past several years. Agreed.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fair enough.

Yes, the active jet has been a probelm the past several years. Agreed.

I knew it was going to be another underperforming snowfall season back in December when I saw that the jet and storm track pattern picking up where the last several seasons left off. The lower La Niña December snowfall which has done so well at prediction the outcomes last 30 years worked very well again. Since La Ninas are usually more frontloaded by nature and don’t require us waiting longer like El Niños which are more backloaded. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I knew it was going to be another underperforming snowfall season back in December when I saw that the jet and storm track pattern picking up where the last several seasons left off. The lower La Niña December snowfall which has done so well at prediction the outcomes last 30 years worked very well again. Since La Ninas are usually more frontloaded by nature and don’t require us waiting longer like El Niños which are more backloaded. 

Yes, I was worried at the end of December, but I knew once the Jan 11 threat turned into an advisory event. I took note of the fact that an adequate west coast ridge could never sustain and models could not distinguish that until the medium range.

[LakePaste25]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never said anything about rules moving forward since my philosophy is always to take one winter at a time. Unfortunately, we don’t have multiyear storm track forecasts. But we can know with certainty what has happened up to this point. 

 

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fair enough.

Yes, the active jet has been a probelm the past several years. Agreed.

If I were to compare Dec/Jan ‘24-‘25 to Jan/Feb 2015, both patterns look similar at face value (+PNA/-EPO), but late Jan to Feb 2015 was a far snowier pattern for the northeast, with storms constantly bombing out over the benchmark. 

 

The thing that really stands out to me is that in 2015, the pacific jet was more equatorward (see that area of blue further south in the eastern pacific, area of orange in zonal wind). A more equatorward pacific jet is more favorable because it allows for more amplified ridging out west, allowing storms to dig. 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fair enough.

Yes, the active jet has been a probelm the past several years. Agreed.

I'm not so sure if it's the jet pattern or the deep -PDO. Even when we had the favorable jet pattern, there were 2 years when we had a deep -PDO (11-12 and 12-13). Those were two of the least snowy winters in the mid-Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not so sure if it's the jet pattern or the deep -PDO. Even when we had the favorable jet pattern, there were 2 years when we had a deep -PDO (11-12 and 12-13). Those were two of the least snowy winters in the mid-Atlantic.

It was not the PDO this season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It wasn't the same pattern as the last few Winters because the Southeast got several snowstorms. They were shut out the last few years. You act like because New York City had the same amount of snowfall as the last few Winter's that the pattern wasn't different, but it wasn't the same, at least through December and January. It was just drier. That drier pattern started last Summer when the cap wasn't breaking for anything, despite hot temperatures and high humidity in the Northeast. This "drought" pattern really only started in 2024. 

[brooklynwx99]

35 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It wasn't the same pattern as the last few Winters because the Southeast got several snowstorms. They were shut out the last few years. You act like because New York City had the same amount of snowfall as the last few Winter's that the pattern wasn't different, but it wasn't the same, at least through December and January. It was just drier. That drier pattern started last Summer when the cap wasn't breaking for anything, despite hot temperatures and high humidity in the Northeast. This "drought" pattern really only started in 2024. 

the Southeast and southern MA is loving climate change right now

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It wasn't the same pattern as the last few Winters because the Southeast got several snowstorms. They were shut out the last few years. You act like because New York City had the same amount of snowfall as the last few Winter's that the pattern wasn't different, but it wasn't the same, at least through December and January. It was just drier. That drier pattern started last Summer when the cap wasn't breaking for anything, despite hot temperatures and high humidity in the Northeast. This "drought" pattern really only started in 2024. 

Agree. This winters pattern was NOTHING like the past several. If we want to play the "lets see how we can tie this into CC" game, I can tell you that this winters sensible weather was as anti-CC trends as you can get in Detroit/southeast MI. Steady & sustained cold, frequent snowfall, no big storm, plentiful snowcover days despite underwhelming snowfall totals....thats a winter that, while never common, had been practically extinct. I have exactly zero doubt that a milder winter pattern wouldve served us some bigger winter storms.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree. This winters pattern was NOTHING like the past several. If we want to play the "lets see how we can tie this into CC" game, I can tell you that this winters sensible weather was as anti-CC trends as you can get in Detroit/southeast MI. Steady & sustained cold, frequent snowfall, no big storm, plentiful snowcover days despite underwhelming snowfall totals....thats a winter that, while never common, had been practically extinct. I have exactly zero doubt that a milder winter pattern wouldve served us some bigger winter storms.   

There is always something that can be attributed to CC for those that wish to....this year it was the strong Pac jet and southeast ridge coinciding with the steep -A0 in Feb.