2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

You can see how much faster the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has become from near Japan right across the Pacific into the U.S. since 18-19. This has lead to storm tracks cutting through the Great Lakes, hugging the I-78, I-80, and I-95 corridors. Then other storms getting suppressed to our south with kicker lows coming into the West. It has left very little room for the benchmark tracks which reached record numbers from 09-10 to 17-18.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

It hasn’t made a difference whether it was a -NAO or -AO during the 2020s. March 2023 was one of the most negative NAO months of the 2020s so far. We still got the Southeast Ridge link up which forced the storm on the 13 to 15th too far north for my area. So it turned into an higher elevation special. 
 

2023   1.25   0.92  -1.11 

 

March 2023 was brutal for me...I called for a SSW and a big March that year and was ready to spike the football, and the 30" of snowfell fell like 15 miles west of me  The RNA was just too overwhelming. I ended up with several inches of slush and it torpedoed my whole seasonal outlook.

I know you don't entirely agree, but I slightly cleaner redevelopment would have ended differently.

 

Great discussion between you and Chuck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see how much faster the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has increased from near Japan right across the Pacific into the U.S. since 18-19. This has lead to storm tracks cutting through the Great Lakes, hugging the I-78, I-80, and I-95 corridors. Then other storms getting suppressed to our south with kicker lows coming into the West. It has left very little room for the benchmark tracks which reached record numbers from 09-10 to 17-18.

 

 

You would think one of those kicker lows would impact a GL cutter....

I think some of that is cyclical....natural variation, but I don't doubt that the active PAC jet periods are more pronounced than they used to be.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

You can see how much faster the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has increased from near Japan right across the Pacific into the U.S. since 18-19. This has lead to storm tracks cutting through the Great Lakes, hugging the I-78, I-80, and I-95 corridors. Then other storms getting suppressed to our south with kicker lows coming into the West. It has left very little room for the benchmark tracks which reached record numbers from 09-10 to 17-18.

 

 

The way I picture it, the strong jet stream favors west to east tracks rather than south to north or southwest to northeast tracks, hence no benchmark tracks.

The only time we get non west to east tracks is when the SE ridge amplifies enough to break the west to east track and to amplify that much it has to become really strong and then we get cutter tracks.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think some of that is cyclical....natural variation, but I don't doubt that the active PAC jet periods are more pronounced than they used to be.

The last cycle was a long one (but it did have some breaks in it) maybe we will now have more pronounced and more amplified cycles but with a shorter duration?  Isn't there a law of conservation of momentum that states this should be the case?

Anyway if we start from the 70s we had this from 1969-70 to 1975-76 and then we saw a break because of the two year el nino which continued on for a few years to the super el nino and beyond 1976-77 to 1986-87 and then we had another period of fast flow from 1987-88 to 1991-92 and then we started to get a major breakdown beginning with 1992-93 continuing to 1995-96 before we saw one more period of fast Pac flow from 1996-97 to 2001-02 and thats when that entire pattern broke down from 2002-03 to 2005-06.  It came back from 2006-07 to 2008-09 and then left again with the el nino of 2009-10 and that period lasted through 2017-18.  And then the fast Pac flow resumed again with 2018-19.

Obviously I'm leaving out some years that bucked the decadal trend but I'm just trying to broadbrush general patterns.

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would think one of those kicker lows would impact a GL cutter....

You just have to laugh at how predictable these storm tracks have become. When the faster flow results in smaller wave spacing, then the low coming into the West acts as a kicker and the low further east gets suppressed to the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast. Then when the lows are further apart, the low out West amplifies too much pumping the Southeast Ridge and the low cuts to the Great Lakes. The third scenario is a compromise between these previous two tracks and the low tracks right across the I-84 I-80, I-78, or I-95 corridors hugging the area. Bottom line is the localized snow belts in the Great Lakes and Northeast higher elevations really do great in this type of pattern.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see how much faster the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has become from near Japan right across the Pacific into the U.S. since 18-19. This has lead to storm tracks cutting through the Great Lakes, hugging the I-78, I-80, and I-95 corridors. Then other storms getting suppressed to our south with kicker lows coming into the West. It has left very little room for the benchmark tracks which reached record numbers from 09-10 to 17-18.

 

 

It’s interesting that athough the pac jet was stronger again this year, it was placed more equatorward compared to other recent winters since 2019. Makes sense as the south saw a lot of snow relative to their climo. 

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You just have to laugh at how predictable these storm tracks have become. When the faster flow results in smaller wave spacing, then the low coming into the West acts as a kicker and the low further east gets suppressed to the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast. Then when the lows are further apart, the low out West amplifies too much pumping the Southeast Ridge and the low cuts to the Great Lakes. The third scenario is a compromise between these previous two tracks and the low tracks right across the I-84 I-80, I-78, or I-95 corridors hugging the area. Bottom line is the localized snow belts in the Great Lakes and Northeast higher elevations really do great in this type of pattern.

If they are so predictable, how come our models have such a problem predicting them ;-)

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 3/6/2025 at 6:33 AM, bluewave said:

The Euro has a strong El Niño Costero next few months but it isn’t able to transition to full basin warming. Still too early to tell what happens due to the spring forecast barrier. Sometimes these Costero events go full basin like we saw in 2023-2024 and other times the signal fades out like in the spring of 2017. Getting a strong enough WWB and OKW is usually the determining factor as to whether the whole basin shifts into El Niño or not.

 

 

 

This will be very interesting to see what happens. Subsurface would suggest as of now a potential rejected EL nino but that does not mean it doesn't try to spread some warmer regions rather than cool neutral. It does look to be building though and there is a possibility if we do get some sort of decent WWB event it could trigger a weak Nino.

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This will be very interesting to see what happens. Subsurface would suggest as of now a potential rejected EL nino but that does not mean it doesn't try to spread some warmer regions rather than cool neutral. It does look to be building though and there is a possibility if we do get some sort of decent WWB event it could trigger a weak Nino.

 

Latest OHC anoms for 180-100W (I think these are to a depth of 300 m):

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This will be very interesting to see what happens. Subsurface would suggest as of now a potential rejected EL nino but that does not mean it doesn't try to spread some warmer regions rather than cool neutral. It does look to be building though and there is a possibility if we do get some sort of decent WWB event it could trigger a weak Nino.

 

We would want to see the shallow surface warm pool near SA link up with the the one at greater depth closer to the Dateline as was the case in March and April 2023 to have a shot at El Niño development this year. 
 

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 3/6/2025 at 8:41 AM, GaWx said:

 JB is saying that a stratwarm caused widespread US colder than average 3/20-4/14 is still possible. He’s saying Europe being wet has already tipped off this idea 3 times and he thinks it will happen again.

 But I agree with @snowman19that he usually calls for colder than normal around this period. Also, the Euro Weeklies so far still have not shown any BN signal in the E 2/3 of the US for any upcoming week with AN temps dominating. In addition, the MJO is forecasted to be in the maritime continent on 3/20.

 But the 60N 10 mb wind reversal is still looking stout with a rapid drop of 50 m/s over just a 7 day period from Mar 5th’s +30 to ~-20 m/s Mar 12. This is similar to the record earliest FW during about the same period in 2016, but that didn’t result in any widespread long lasting E US BN period in late Mar-Apr:

 

Impressive!

I unfortunately have not had a lot of time to look at the strat recently. I still don't know how we can claim that this was the first decent stratospheric warming event this season. Of course the middle to end of January one was impactful but we have not had a pattern sustain this winter and since no reversal occurred of course the SPV was able to maintain with the benefitting factor of a WQBO still very prevalent. There was some brief connection over the Alaska/ NW Canada region for a bit this year again sustainability was the issue. I don't know how anyone could make the claim a near record fast/strong SPV could suddenly disintegrate like that and have a near 90m/s+ drop that is unheard of. I'm sure at some point in the past it may have happened but not within our records. It is typically common to have a solid attack weaken the structure and then have a second attack that finishes it. The thing is there is not always a second attack so that was always the question at hand.

Maybe it was the faster pac jet that was able to cause the pattern to not be able to sustain this year? Will be interesting to look at over the summer.

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We would want to see the shallow surface warm pool near SA link up with the the one at greater depth closer to the Dateline as was the case in March and April 2023 to have a shot at El Niño development this year. 
 

 

Yes we would have a late bloomer of sorts if they did connect at some point but the strength is very apparent and would only look to sustain at best a touch to moderate but most likely weak scenario, again if that were to occur. This though could set us up for an event around 2026/27 winter again a lot up in the air right now. Should have a better idea into April when things start to settle down.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would want to see the shallow surface warm pool near SA link up with the the one at greater depth closer to the Dateline as was the case in March and April 2023 to have a shot at El Niño development this year. 
 

 

we need it to stop that Pac jet.

in past documented cases of this kind of Pac jet, an el nino was needed to put it to an end.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yes we would have a late bloomer of sorts if they did connect at some point but the strength is very apparent and would only look to sustain at best a touch to moderate but most likely weak scenario, again if that were to occur. This though could set us up for an event around 2026/27 winter again a lot up in the air right now. Should have a better idea into April when things start to settle down.

the la nina this season was also a late bloomer so this is an interesting lag going on-- is it because we would be quickly switching from la nina to el nino to la nina and back to el nino from year to year?

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yes we would have a late bloomer of sorts if they did connect at some point but the strength is very apparent and would only look to sustain at best a touch to moderate but most likely weak scenario, again if that were to occur. This though could set us up for an event around 2026/27 winter again a lot up in the air right now. Should have a better idea into April when things start to settle down.

The WWB we just got in the EPAC during February was the strongest on record for just north of the equator. So this is why we have seen the sudden jump in surface warming near SA. We would probably need a follow up WWB back a little closer to and east of the Dateline in late March into April to tip the system back into El Niño again. Still plenty of time to observe since the spring forecast barrier makes ENSO outlooks tricky this early on.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Impressive!

I unfortunately have not had a lot of time to look at the strat recently. I still don't know how we can claim that this was the first decent stratospheric warming event this season. Of course the middle to end of January one was impactful but we have not had a pattern sustain this winter and since no reversal occurred of course the SPV was able to maintain with the benefitting factor of a WQBO still very prevalent. There was some brief connection over the Alaska/ NW Canada region for a bit this year again sustainability was the issue. I don't know how anyone could make the claim a near record fast/strong SPV could suddenly disintegrate like that and have a near 90m/s+ drop that is unheard of. I'm sure at some point in the past it may have happened but not within our records. It is typically common to have a solid attack weaken the structure and then have a second attack that finishes it. The thing is there is not always a second attack so that was always the question at hand.

Maybe it was the faster pac jet that was able to cause the pattern to not be able to sustain this year? Will be interesting to look at over the summer.

Regarding the bolded, I think they’re referring to 60N 10 mb mean zonal winds. I believe this will be the first time they will go <+20 m/s the entire season and they’re aiming for ~-20! Also, much of the season has been >+40 making it one of the strongest on record.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we need it to stop that Pac jet.

in past documented cases of this kind of Pac jet, an el nino was needed to put it to an end.

Something needs to offset the huge warm SST area east of Japan which is likely what’s supercharging the Pacific jet. We had that last winter in a strong El Niño and it still influenced the pattern too much. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

If they are so predictable, how come our models have such a problem predicting them ;-)

 

The models seemed to be worse than usual this winter in the near term. And some huge issues with overdoing qpf at times (again, talking in the nearterm and not talking convective type).

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The models seemed to be worse than usual this winter in the near term. And some huge issues with overdoing qpf at times (again, talking in the nearterm and not talking convective type).

That could be them underestimating the speed of the Pac jet.  We've had that here too much less moisture than modeled. The last storm was an exception though.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Something needs to offset the huge warm SST area east of Japan which is likely what’s supercharging the Pacific jet. We had that last winter in a strong El Niño and it still influenced the pattern too much. 

Yep, we barely got the edge on two storms that got JFK a 4 inch and 6 inch storm in the same week but the rest of the area was fringed.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Something needs to offset the huge warm SST area east of Japan which is likely what’s supercharging the Pacific jet. We had that last winter in a strong El Niño and it still influenced the pattern too much. 

Matthew Belk from NWS Boston live on TWC right now talking about this winter said this winter the snowfall was 3x the last two winters so not that bad at 28 inches only slightly below normal (according to him).  He said it was still a somewhat snowy winter although the wind was a bigger concern than the snow this season.

They asked him how rare it is not to get even one noreaster in  a season and he said he would have to look into that and get back to them.

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That could be them underestimating the speed of the Pac jet.  We've had that here too much less moisture than modeled. The last storm was an exception though.

Same here. Like i said, Jan/Feb were active in the Lakes, just nothing big. Of Detroits 3 biggest snowfalls this winter (3.7", 3.8", 4.7"), 2 of the 3 fell solidly below forecast qpf despite the actual track/qpf shield being well forecast in the nearterm.

Whats interesting is that despite the well-discussed speed of the jet, the lake response in the wake to any system/front has not only been pretty decent but pretty drawn out. Sometimes the lake response window is short, but that wasnt the case this year, as witnessed in the abnormally heavy snow in already lake-favored areas like Gaylord, Sault Ste Marie, Michigans Keewenaw Peninsula, Erie, and south Buffalo. Even at Detroit, from Dec 30 - Feb 21, a T or more of snow was recorded on 44 of the 54 days.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If they are so predictable, how come our models have such a problem predicting them ;-)

 

The model bias has been remarkably consistent this winter and since 18-19. Constant underestimating of the strength and effects from the Pacific Jet beyond 120hrs and especially from 168hrs and after. This has lead to the big modeled snowstorm always remaining a week or more out in time.

So the closer in time we get the models figure out that the fast  Pacific flow will play the spoiler. The original model run from 168hrs and beyond shows a big snowstorm coming up the East Coast. But there is questionable wave spacing in the West. Shorter term runs show that low out West becoming the kicker as the faster flow than forecast leads to the modeled lead low getting suppressed south and our area missing the snows. 

The next error was the way overdone EPS snow means showing the best overrunning gradient closer to NYC. But as the storm time approaches, there is a little too much wave spacing between lows and the storm digs too much to our west pumping the Southeast Ridge. So the best overrunning snows go north of NYC.

Another common track is a well spaced low to our west with no kicker at all behind it. So this long range forecast starts out as a cutter track and even ends up further west so interior portions of the Northeast end up with P-type issues. It leads to the saying that the one storm track forecast from more than a week out that the models can get right is a cutter. Since it can go 50 miles west of NYC or 500 miles west with a similar outcome for us along  the coast. But areas further west can start out more snowy and end up with mixing or just mostly rain.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The model bias has been remarkably consistent this winter and since 18-19. Constant underestimating of the strength and effects from the Pacific Jet beyond 120hrs and especially from 168hrs and after. This has lead to the big modeled snowstorm always remaining a week or more out in time.

So the closer in time we get the models figure out that the fast  Pacific flow will play the spoiler. The original model run from 168hrs and beyond shows a big snowstorm coming up the East Coast. But there is questionable wave spacing in the West. Shorter term runs show that low out West becoming the kicker as the faster flow than forecast leads to the modeled lead low getting suppressed south and our area missing the snows. 

The next error was the way overdone EPS snow means showing the best overrunning gradient closer to NYC. But as the storm time approaches, there is a little too much wave spacing between lows and the storm digs too much to our west pumping the Southeast Ridge. So the best overrunning snows go north of NYC.

Another common track is a well spaced low to our west with no kicker at all behind it. So this long range forecast starts out as a cutter track and even ends up further west so interior portions of the Northeast end up with P-type issues. It leads to the saying that the one storm track forecast from more than a week out that the models can get right is a cutter. Since it can go 50 miles west of NYC or 500 miles west with a similar outcome for us along  the coast. But areas further west can start out more snowy and end up with mixing or just mostly rain.

Yes, this is why it's so much easier to hit a forecast for rainfall than it is for snowfall-- rainfall has more areal coverage in our part of the world.  But elsewhere, like the Rockies, for example, a forecast for snowfall is more likely to be correct.  They aren't on as much of a fine line as we are.

 

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 I see Joe Bastardi is doing his usual yearly March, “spring is going to be delayed, deep winter is coming back in the east, major cold and major snow is just around the corner for 3/20-4/15” routine. As predictable as the rising sun…..

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Assuming no more snow falls this year, PHL could set the record for the least snowy 10-year period next year.

The current record is 1922-23 to 1932-33, averaging 13.2 inches.

1923	19.5
1924	21.8
1925	12.1
1926	19.1
1927	11.8
1928	15.5
1929	11.9
1930	8.2
1931	4.1
1932	8

2016-17 to 2024-25 is averaging 13.18 inches.

2017	15
2018	29.8
2019	17.1
2020	0.3
2021	23.9
2022	12.9
2023	0.3
2024	11.2
2025	8.1

2025-26 would need to come in at less than 13.4 inches to break the record.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

On 3/6/2025 at 8:08 AM, bluewave said:

I know that. But with these further north storm tracks, even places outside the traditional snow belts can do very well. While past -5 -AOs favored DC to Boston, this was another one that linked up with the Southeast Ridge which has become a regular occurrence in the 2020s. So the heaviest snows got pushed up into Canada instead with this much warmer storm track. But the most impressive records continue to be in the favored lake effect zones like we just saw in Gaylord. 

 

 

The snowbelts off Erie and Ontario did very well. Had 175" in the southtowns of Buffalo. Crazy the difference between my home to airport. It's about a 20 minute drive from Hamburg to Buffalo airport and 100" difference in snow totals.

 

[snowman19]

Shocker! Yet another stratospheric event that is going to fail to downwell and couple with the troposphere. Same old story for the last 5 months in a row. The Joe Bastardi wishcasts/dreams of a big winter return late month are toast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Shocker! Yet another stratospheric event that is going to fail to downwell and couple with the troposphere. Same old story for the last 5 months in a row. The Joe Bastardi wishcasts/dreams of a big winter return late month are toast

The time it should connect with -NAO is last week of March, into early April. I'm not sure that's in the range of modeling yet.