2024-2025 La Nina

[FPizz]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last thing Ill say about NYC snowfall (not saying anything about temps). I dont live there, nor will I ever, so I have NO stake whatsoever in the climate there. I just feel theres way too much twisting of data in looking for what the future holds for their snowfall. What I DO know is that no one will have the answer for several more decades of actual data that hasnt yet happened.

NYC literally just had a stretch of 8 of 13 years seeing 40"+ snowfall. Funny how winters of yore arent so yore when you look up the snow data. The last 9 winters to feature 40"+ snowfall go back 23 years. Prior to that, it took 79 years. 

40”+ NYC winters
1923-24 thru 1956-57: 2 of 34
1957-58 thru 1966-67: 4 of 10
1967-68 thru 2001-02: 3 of 35
2002-03 thru 2014-15: 8 of 13
2015-16 thru 2024-25: 1 of 10

1923-24 thru 2001-02: 9 of 79 years
2002-03 thru 2024-25: 9 of 23 years
 

Totally agree.  It must be nice having everything figured out about what the future holds.  

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last 7 snowfall seasons have been the lowest 7 year snowfall combined from Philly up to Boston. It has been a result of the much warmer winters and the warmer storm tracks. Since the 1990s, this region has relied heavily on coastal Noreaster tracks near the 40/70 benchmark to reach average to above average snowfall.

In the colder era before the 1990s, there were several seasons reaching average snowfall without big KU NESIS snowstorms. So there were more ways to break even in a colder climate. Since tracks further to the west didn’t draw in the amount of warmth we have experienced with the cutter and hugger tracks over the last 7 seasons.

Places like NYC have come to rely exclusively on this benchmark storm track just to approach average last 30 years. So when just one type of storm track which can be a smaller percentage of the total storm tracks essentially shuts off, the outcome has been record low snowfall averages over 7 years. 

While the region experienced their first average temperature winter in a decade this winter, the storm tracks were still too warm for heavy snows in places like NYC. Since the storm day winter average temperature was 41.0°. So this muted the effect of the 34.8° winter average temperature which was very close to the 1951 to 2010 long term average. 

This has been the first 7 year period with such low snowfall being the result of warmth. Past 7 year snow droughts were usually the result of drier patterns and not lack of cold for winter average temperatures and storm tracks. In the colder climate we occasionally had dry stretches. So shifting back closer to average snowfall for the remainder of the 2020s will be more of a challenge now since the warmth has continued increasing. 

Those past record low 7 year stretches all ended with heavy snowfall with NYC seeing upwards of 50” and 60” to over 70”. Such higher totals for especially from Philly to NYC will be a challenge in the much warmer 2020s climate. Boston probably has more leeway to break the snow drought if we see a true benchmark storm track return since they are a colder climate than Philly and NYC. 

This highlights the challenges of having to rely so much on just one type of storm track for average to above average snowfall. This wasn’t the case in a colder climate for average snowfall seasons around NYC. But getting the big seasons still required the benchmark track. 

State College is a location that relied heavily on one type of storm track for their heavier snows. The a storm track called Apps or inside runner used to be very common there. These days we see more storms tracking west of the mountains and giving the Great Lakes historic snows. So State College has seen a steady 20 decline in their snowfall over the last 20 years. I am hoping this isn’t a good comparison to benchmark tracks since we are only 7 years in and not 20 years like State College. 

So it will be interesting to see what happens during the rest of the 2020s. 
 

7 year running average record low snowfall 

PHI….2025….13.6”…….1992…..14.9”……95-96….65.5”….1955….13.4”……57-58….41.8”

NYC…2025….14.9”…...1992…..16.3”…..93-94…53.4”….95-96….73.6”…1976….17.2”…77-78….50.7”…..1956….17.0”….57-58….44.7”…..1932….15.4”….33-34…..52.0”

BOS….2025…..26.6”…….1992…..29.9”…..92-93….83.9”….93-94….90.3”….95-96….107.6”……1955….29.9”…..55-56…..60.9”…..56-57….52”

 

 

The Great Lakes have NOT had historic snows in the last 7-10 years. There is a huge misconception here. Most of us in the Great Lakes have had near average snows and mostly due to nickel and dime events. 

Just because you see storms tracking into the Great Lakes doesn't equate to historic snows. Most of the storms have been rain thanks to the upper air pattern pumping warmth further north. In fact, most of us have seen historic warmth the last 5-7 years. Since 2018-19, only 2021-22 and this winter have finished either near average or below average temperature wise. 

And a 7 year sample in the grand scheme of things is nothing. Whether it's a trend or an anomaly we won't know until 10 years from now. To give you some context, 4 out of our top 6 least snowiest winters occurred between 2006-2016 in Toronto which includes 2006-07, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2015-16. Of those, only 2009-10 was related to the storm track thanks to the strong -NAO block that suppressed every storm for us. But the others were a result of the upper air pattern flooding the area with warmth and the storm track being a byproduct where even nickel and dime events were rain. 

So am I going to single out that 10 year period and consider it a new normal? The 10 year period from 1996-2006 or the 10 year period from 2016-2025 were both near average snow for us. But I can skew the data for that particular 2006-2016 snowless period and consider that a trend/norm. And even in that 10 year period, we saw 3 historically snowy winters (2007-08, 2008-09, and 2013-14). 

 

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

The Great Lakes have NOT had historic snows in the last 7-10 years. There is a huge misconception here. Most of us in the Great Lakes have had near average snows and mostly due to nickel and dime events. 

Just because you see storms tracking into the Great Lakes doesn't equate to historic snows. Most of the storms have been rain thanks to the upper air pattern pumping warmth further north. In fact, most of us have seen historic warmth the last 5-7 years. Since 2018-19, only 2021-22 and this winter have finished either near average or below average temperature wise. 

And a 7 year sample in the grand scheme of things is nothing. Whether it's a trend or an anomaly we won't know until 10 years from now. To give you some context, 4 out of our top 6 least snowiest winters occurred between 2006-2016 in Toronto which includes 2006-07, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2015-16. Of those, only 2009-10 was related to the storm track thanks to the strong -NAO block that suppressed every storm for us. But the others were a result of the upper air pattern flooding the area with warmth and the storm track being a byproduct where even nickel and dime events were rain. 

So am I going to single out that 10 year period and consider it a new normal? The 10 year period from 1996-2006 or the 10 year period from 2016-2025 were both near average snow for us. But I can skew the data for that particular 2006-2016 snowless period and consider that a trend/norm. And even in that 10 year period, we saw 3 historically snowy winters (2007-08, 2008-09, and 2013-14). 

 

It’s kind of like the people that have been saying -PDO and associated -PNA pattern is the new normal due to the warmer Oceans. So what happens this past winter? We have a +PNA winter and the PDO has gone much less negative. Could this be the start of a flip to more +PDO and more +PNA patterns? It wouldn’t surprise me in the least. 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

The Great Lakes have NOT had historic snows in the last 7-10 years. There is a huge misconception here. Most of us in the Great Lakes have had near average snows and mostly due to nickel and dime events. 

Just because you see storms tracking into the Great Lakes doesn't equate to historic snows. Most of the storms have been rain thanks to the upper air pattern pumping warmth further north. In fact, most of us have seen historic warmth the last 5-7 years. Since 2018-19, only 2021-22 and this winter have finished either near average or below average temperature wise. 

And a 7 year sample in the grand scheme of things is nothing. Whether it's a trend or an anomaly we won't know until 10 years from now. To give you some context, 5 out of our top 6 least snowiest winters occurred between 2006-2016 in Toronto which includes 2006-07, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2015-16. Of those, only 2009-10 was related to the storm track thanks the strong -NAO block that suppressed every storm for us. But the others were a result of the upper air pattern flooding the area with warmth and the storm track being a byproduct where even nickel and dime events were rain. 

So am I going to single out that 10 year period and consider it a new normal? The 10 year period from 1996-2006 or the 10 year period from 2016-2025 were both near average snow for us. But I can skew the data for that particular 2006-2016 snowless period and consider that a trend/norm. And even in that 10 year period, we saw 3 historically snowy winters (2007-08, 2008-09, and 2013-14). 

 

The lake effect zones have had numerous snowfall records in recent years. So maybe you mean synoptic snows? 

This 7 year data conforms to what has been happening over the last 30 to 60 years. So you make an error when saying it’s only 7 years.  It’s not singling anything out but rather it’s matching the longer term existing trend. 

From the 60s into the early 90s my area had a cold and stable temperature pattern. So the areas around NYC had mostly mid range snowfall seasons. Very few much above normal and much below normal snowfall. 

Since the 90s we have shifted to an all or nothing snowfall distribution pattern with hardly any snowfall seasons near the middle of the distribution. So our snowfall has become much more extreme with well below and well above dominating. This 30 year shift has occurred against the backdrop of rapidly warming temperatures. The record snowfall highs from 09-10 to 17-18 and the record lows since 18-19 perfectly conform to this 30 year snowfall distribution shift. 

In the colder era before the mid 90s, the NYC area could reach the middle range of 19” to 31” seasons without historic KU benchmark NESIS storms. So a colder climate provided more options of reaching this mid range.Obviously, the KU seasons were the ones which finished well above the mean. 

So NYC Metro and other locations have fewer options of reaching this middle range. Many seasons jumped above this range from 09-10 to 17-18 relying exclusively on a 1 in 100 year phenomenal concentration of Benchmark storms with a significantly higher concentration of NESIS events experienced in the past. So my guess is that relying on a another 9 year run like that is probably a low probability chance of reoccurrence.

Now we are left with the current all or nothing pattern where the higher and middle range distributions seeing smaller probabilities. So it’s no surprise when we lost the benchmark tracks for much of  the time since 18-19 ,that the region is at the all-time record lows for snowfall. Past lows near this range over 7 year periods were primarily a result of drier conditions and not record warmth. These were followed by numerous 50” + seasons which were easier to come by in a colder climate. So as we continue to warm, both storm tracks and the seasonal background temperature warming provide less opportunities for snow. Having to rely so heavily on just one type of storm track has left us open to repeated well below normal snowfall seasons last 7 years. Since the Great Lakes cutters, I-78 to I-80 hugger tracks, and suppressed Southern Stream lows with the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific had lead to record low snowfall.

The data suggests a few ways this could go in the coming years. First, my guess is that the longer term snowfall peaked in 17-18 around NYC .Then 18-19 began the decline that has been expected in a warmer climate reducing snowfall chances. Option one is that the last 7 years continues and represents the new normal for snowfall. Option two is a return to occasional benchmark storm tracks with an uptick in snowfall next several seasons but coming up well short of 09-10 to 17-18. This would be followed by another downtown in the 2030s if it did occur as temperatures continue to warm. Option 3 is a return to the 09-10 to 17-18 benchmark era which I give the smallest chances to.

 

 

[Snowstorms]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The lake effect zones have had numerous snowfall records in recent years. So maybe you mean synoptic snows? 

This 7 year data conforms to what has been happening over the last 30 to 60 years. So you make an error when saying it’s only 7 years.  It’s not singling anything out but rather it’s matching the longer term existing trend. 

From the 60s into the early 90s my area had a cold and stable temperature pattern. So the areas around NYC had mostly mid range snowfall seasons. Very few much above normal and much below normal snowfall. 

Since the 90s we have shifted to an all or nothing snowfall distribution pattern with hardly any snowfall seasons near the middle of the distribution. So our snowfall has become much more extreme with well below and well above dominating. This 30 year shift has occurred against the backdrop of rapidly warming temperatures. The record snowfall highs from 09-10 to 17-18 and the record lows since 18-19 perfectly conform to this 30 year snowfall distribution shift. 

In the colder era before the mid 90s, the NYC area could reach the middle range of 19” to 31” seasons without historic KU benchmark NESIS storms. So a colder climate provided more options of reaching this mid range.Obviously, the KU seasons were the ones which finished well above the mean. 

So NYC Metro and other locations have fewer options of reaching this middle range. Many seasons jumped above this range from 09-10 to 17-18 relying exclusively on a 1 in 100 year phenomenal concentration of Benchmark storms with a significantly higher concentration of NESIS events experienced in the past. So my guess is that relying on a another 9 year run like that is probably a low probability chance of reoccurrence.

Now we are left with the current all or nothing pattern where the higher and middle range distributions seeing smaller probabilities. So it’s no surprise when we lost the benchmark tracks for much of  the time since 18-19 ,that the region is at the all-time record lows for snowfall. Past lows near this range over 7 year periods were primarily a result of drier conditions and not record warmth. So as we continue to warm, both storm tracks and the seasonal background temperature warming provide less opportunities for snow.

The data suggests a few ways this could go in the coming years. First, my guess is that the longer term snowfall peaked in 17-18 around NYC .Then 18-19 began the decline that has been expected in a warmer climate reducing snowfall chances. Option one is that the last 7 years continues and represents the new normal for snowfall. Option two is a return to occasional benchmark storm tracks with an uptick in snowfall next several seasons but coming up well short of 09-10 to 17-18. This would be followed by another downtown in the 2030s if it did occur as temperatures continue to warm. Option 3 is a return to the 09-10 to 17-18 benchmark era which I give the smallest chances to.

 

 

You have to realize how incredibly localized lake effect snow is. Only those within a 10 mile radius of a lake effect band get snow and those outside that range are literally dry. And most of us in the Great Lakes don't live downwind of the lake effect snow regions or we live too far away because again, it is incredibly localized. And lake effect snow has only been heavy for those snow belt regions thanks to the warm great lakes (as a result of the constant warm winters/summers). Synoptically, we've been near average snow wise last 10 years but no historical winters.

From the 1960s to the 1990s the AMO was negative. I think the AMO has a greater correlation to snowfall and temperatures in NYC than the Pacific pattern. And I believe it definitely played a role as to why we saw several cold winters in the late 70's through the late 80's in the east except from 1987-1993 which was heavily dominated by El Nino's and subsequent Pacific warmth. 

I agree and there is no doubt we've seen a trend towards a warmer climate and that's evident in the last 5-10 years with historically warm winters. And like I said earlier, it's been harder for the Great Lakes too. We've seen several storms in the last 10 years that were marginal at best (low ratio and wet snow). And that is unusual for our region. 

Ideally a slightly -PDO and -AMO are best for snowfall in the Great Lakes, New England, and NE whereas a +PDO is more ideal for snowfall for the Mid-Atl and further south. And that's evident in the 2000-2015, 1960-1977, and 1943-1949 period where either both or one of the oscillations aligned. 

We will have to see if the AMO will trend negative as it's been 30 years now and whether that has any impact or correlation to snowfall/temperatures in the east. The marine heatwave off the coast of Japan has certainly amplified the -PDO and polar jet than what you'd normally see in a La Nina pattern hence the lack of any phased storms. 

Again I refuse to consider it a norm and consider it a trend, for now. And we will have to see how the next 10 years play out before drawing any conclusions. Option 3 in your post would be viable in a slightly negative to neutral PDO phase. And a strong La Nina would certainly help shift us in that favor to cool down the oceans and we haven't seen one since 2010-11 (based on ONI). 

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow those must have been some dry winters!

1900-01 is beyond the pale lol

But those late 50s and 60s winters were pretty dry too.

 

NYC had these winters with both sub 32 F DJFs and <20” of total seasonal snowfall:

-1967-8: 19.5” 88% of normal DJF rainfall

-1962-3: 16.3” 64% of normal DJF rainfall

-1958-9: 13.0” only 50% of normal DJF rainfall

-1900-01: 9.1” only 40% of normal DJF rainfall

-1871-2: 14.4” only 50% of normal DJF rainfall 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

The Great Lakes have NOT had historic snows in the last 7-10 years. There is a huge misconception here. Most of us in the Great Lakes have had near average snows and mostly due to nickel and dime events. 

Just because you see storms tracking into the Great Lakes doesn't equate to historic snows. Most of the storms have been rain thanks to the upper air pattern pumping warmth further north. In fact, most of us have seen historic warmth the last 5-7 years. Since 2018-19, only 2021-22 and this winter have finished either near average or below average temperature wise. 

And a 7 year sample in the grand scheme of things is nothing. Whether it's a trend or an anomaly we won't know until 10 years from now. To give you some context, 4 out of our top 6 least snowiest winters occurred between 2006-2016 in Toronto which includes 2006-07, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2015-16. Of those, only 2009-10 was related to the storm track thanks to the strong -NAO block that suppressed every storm for us. But the others were a result of the upper air pattern flooding the area with warmth and the storm track being a byproduct where even nickel and dime events were rain. 

So am I going to single out that 10 year period and consider it a new normal? The 10 year period from 1996-2006 or the 10 year period from 2016-2025 were both near average snow for us. But I can skew the data for that particular 2006-2016 snowless period and consider that a trend/norm. And even in that 10 year period, we saw 3 historically snowy winters (2007-08, 2008-09, and 2013-14). 

 

In my part of the Great Lakes Id consider the last 10 winters, if I had to sum it up in a nutshell without getting into the details of each winter, I would say it was above average temps with near average snowfall. Of course....the sum of the 10 years prior to that would be near to slightly below average temperatures and well above average snowfall.

Now, we DID have historic winters in the 2007-15 timeframe, and while we really came down post-2015, theres been nothing close to snow futility. Detroits snow climo is pretty consistent overall, and the most glaring thing in the snow-record is the low snowfall which spanned the entire middle third of the 20th century. It was a timeframe characterized by mild winters with low snow and cold, dry winters with low snow. Really bad times for the snow lover. It sticks out like a sore thumb (and ive done ample research to verify the validity of the data, its legit). It went on for 3-4 DECADES. Nowadays panic buttons for various issues are pressed after less than 3-4 YEARS.

Where do I sit midway thru the 2020s? Well, the last complete decade (2010s) was our snowiest on record, and the decade before that (2000s) was above avg too. Halfway thru the 2020s we are running a bit below the longterm avg, but nothing close to earth shattering. Looks more normal up and down to me. If I had to make a guess (and its just a GUESS) at what the future decades hold for our region, Id say snowfall averages will largely remain steady in the 38-45" range. The increase in winter temp (which is centered heavily around December) has increased precip, which helps increase snow. Lake effect influence also has increased here as well (tho obviously nothing close to the belts). I saw less snow this winter, a winter which finished a degree colder than normal, than I have recently seen in winters that finished 4-5F warmer than normal. Just goes to show that each winter truly is unique, but in a region surrounded by Great Lakes and multiple ways to get snow, I would not be worried in the least about snowfall.

Detroit avg decadal snow

1870s- 46.0” (only 1874-79)
1880s- 44.4”
1890s- 42.7”
1900s- 46.3”
1910s- 39.7”
1920s- 46.1”
1930s- 32.9”
1940s- 27.8”
1950s- 37.8”
1960s- 31.8”
1970s- 45.6”
1980s- 45.2”
1990s- 37.9”
2000s- 45.3”
2010s- 49.9”
2020s- 37.9” (only 2020-24)

1874-2024- 41.0"

[mitchnick]

Today’s updated Euro monthly not sold on a Niño yet.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^QBO/ENSO has been correct on the Stratosphere state 3 Winter's in a row.. -QBO/El Nino favors warm Stratosphere, +QBO/La Nina favors cold Stratosphere. It's been an anomaly that those indexes have been lined up for 3 years in row, but an El Nino next Winter would make that 4 years in a row. 23-24 was a -QBO/El Nino but we had 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, and an overall warm Stratosphere state for the cold season... This Winter has been frigid at 10mb, and 22-23 was cold too.. both +QBO/Nina's.  It doesn't always make it to the surface, but it does most of the time. That makes the possible El Nino more sensitive to potential cold (-AO) going into next cold season. 

[GaWx]

On 2/25/2025 at 1:13 PM, GaWx said:

 We’re on the way to a top 3 CPC +PNA Feb since 1950 with top 2 possible. The only one that appears safe is the +2.04 of 1977. 1980’s +1.74 is 2nd. Both of those were El Niños. I’m projecting something within +1.55 to +1.9 for 2/2025. In 3rd is 2016’s +1.48, another El Niño.

 The highest Feb on record during La Niña is 2000’s +1.12.

 2024-5 is on track to be at least very close to the highest on record for DJF. Right now I have it being +1.42 to +1.53 with +1.46 to +1.50 most favored. The current highest is 2015-16’s +1.43 followed by 1976-7’s +1.41 (both El Niño). The highest on record for La Niña is only +0.89 (2000-1). That will be obliterated!

1. Feb CPC PNA came out at +1.41, lower than my projection of +1.55 to +1.9. So, that means Feb of 2025 came in 4th highest rather than top 3 because of 2016’s +1.48. The 3 highest were during El Niño.

2. It still comes in way higher than the previous high Feb for La Niña, 2000’s +1.12. Of course officially 2024-5 looks to be neutral. The old record high for neutral in Feb looks like it was +1.07 in 1991. So, 2/2025’s +1.41 easily beats that, too.

3. 2024-5 DJF PNA comes in at +1.39, a bit lower than I had projected due to Feb being below my projected range. That places it 3rd behind the two El Niños of 2015-6 (+1.43) and 1976-7 (+1.41). The +1.39 is well above the next highest.

 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s updated Euro monthly not sold on a Niño yet.

Also, once we get further into spring, many years of data shows the Euro to have a decided warm bias.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lake effect zones have had numerous snowfall records in recent years. So maybe you mean synoptic snows? 

This 7 year data conforms to what has been happening over the last 30 to 60 years. So you make an error when saying it’s only 7 years.  It’s not singling anything out but rather it’s matching the longer term existing trend. 

From the 60s into the early 90s my area had a cold and stable temperature pattern. So the areas around NYC had mostly mid range snowfall seasons. Very few much above normal and much below normal snowfall. 

Since the 90s we have shifted to an all or nothing snowfall distribution pattern with hardly any snowfall seasons near the middle of the distribution. So our snowfall has become much more extreme with well below and well above dominating. This 30 year shift has occurred against the backdrop of rapidly warming temperatures. The record snowfall highs from 09-10 to 17-18 and the record lows since 18-19 perfectly conform to this 30 year snowfall distribution shift. 

In the colder era before the mid 90s, the NYC area could reach the middle range of 19” to 31” seasons without historic KU benchmark NESIS storms. So a colder climate provided more options of reaching this mid range.Obviously, the KU seasons were the ones which finished well above the mean. 

So NYC Metro and other locations have fewer options of reaching this middle range. Many seasons jumped above this range from 09-10 to 17-18 relying exclusively on a 1 in 100 year phenomenal concentration of Benchmark storms with a significantly higher concentration of NESIS events experienced in the past. So my guess is that relying on a another 9 year run like that is probably a low probability chance of reoccurrence.

Now we are left with the current all or nothing pattern where the higher and middle range distributions seeing smaller probabilities. So it’s no surprise when we lost the benchmark tracks for much of  the time since 18-19 ,that the region is at the all-time record lows for snowfall. Past lows near this range over 7 year periods were primarily a result of drier conditions and not record warmth. These were followed by numerous 50” + seasons which were easier to come by in a colder climate. So as we continue to warm, both storm tracks and the seasonal background temperature warming provide less opportunities for snow. Having to rely so heavily on just one type of storm track has left us open to repeated well below normal snowfall seasons last 7 years. Since the Great Lakes cutters, I-78 to I-80 hugger tracks, and suppressed Southern Stream lows with the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific had lead to record low snowfall.

The data suggests a few ways this could go in the coming years. First, my guess is that the longer term snowfall peaked in 17-18 around NYC .Then 18-19 began the decline that has been expected in a warmer climate reducing snowfall chances. Option one is that the last 7 years continues and represents the new normal for snowfall. Option two is a return to occasional benchmark storm tracks with an uptick in snowfall next several seasons but coming up well short of 09-10 to 17-18. This would be followed by another downtown in the 2030s if it did occur as temperatures continue to warm. Option 3 is a return to the 09-10 to 17-18 benchmark era which I give the smallest chances to.

 

 

Option three's predecessor actually started in 02-03 so you could say it was 02-03 to 17-18.  I give that the smallest chance of recurring because there is no other period like that in 200 years of NYC climate history.

 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Also, once we get further into spring, many years of data shows the Euro to have a decided warm bias.

Looking at many years of data makes me feel old. No thanks.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

In my part of the Great Lakes Id consider the last 10 winters, if I had to sum it up in a nutshell without getting into the details of each winter, I would say it was above average temps with near average snowfall. Of course....the sum of the 10 years prior to that would be near to slightly below average temperatures and well above average snowfall.

Now, we DID have historic winters in the 2007-15 timeframe, and while we really came down post-2015, theres been nothing close to snow futility. Detroits snow climo is pretty consistent overall, and the most glaring thing in the snow-record is the low snowfall which spanned the entire middle third of the 20th century. It was a timeframe characterized by mild winters with low snow and cold, dry winters with low snow. Really bad times for the snow lover. It sticks out like a sore thumb (and ive done ample research to verify the validity of the data, its legit). It went on for 3-4 DECADES. Nowadays panic buttons for various issues are pressed after less than 3-4 YEARS.

Where do I sit midway thru the 2020s? Well, the last complete decade (2010s) was our snowiest on record, and the decade before that (2000s) was above avg too. Halfway thru the 2020s we are running a bit below the longterm avg, but nothing close to earth shattering. Looks more normal up and down to me. If I had to make a guess (and its just a GUESS) at what the future decades hold for our region, Id say snowfall averages will largely remain steady in the 38-45" range. The increase in winter temp (which is centered heavily around December) has increased precip, which helps increase snow. Lake effect influence also has increased here as well (tho obviously nothing close to the belts). I saw less snow this winter, a winter which finished a degree colder than normal, than I have recently seen in winters that finished 4-5F warmer than normal. Just goes to show that each winter truly is unique, but in a region surrounded by Great Lakes and multiple ways to get snow, I would not be worried in the least about snowfall.

Detroit avg decadal snow

1870s- 46.0” (only 1874-79)
1880s- 44.4”
1890s- 42.7”
1900s- 46.3”
1910s- 39.7”
1920s- 46.1”
1930s- 32.9”
1940s- 27.8”
1950s- 37.8”
1960s- 31.8”
1970s- 45.6”
1980s- 45.2”
1990s- 37.9”
2000s- 45.3”
2010s- 49.9”
2020s- 37.9” (only 2020-24)

1874-2024- 41.0"

Wow, the 30s-60s stunk.  That's a long time.  I bet people thought that was the new norm.  

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

Wow, the 30s-60s stunk.  That's a long time.  I bet people thought that was the new norm.  

Yes it did. Although I'm sure every generations old timers always said winters of their youth were harder. It would just be particularly funny from the 1930s-50s. I give the 1960s a pass because they were cold winters, just often with a very suppressed storm track.

The 1930s and 1950s winters were mild, with several of them very high up on the warmest list. A few good snowstorms popped in from time to time, but it was a lot of bare ground and thaws. Januarys in the first half of the 1930s were horrendous. The 1940s weren't necessarily as warm, but they were terrible for snow. There a few 1940s warm snowless winters, and then several colder but dry ones, and also a few colder ones with poorly times storms (rain/ice). 

Pretty much every area in the region had plenty of shit winters in those decades, and I can name several from each of those decades that had a futility/weakness the likes of which I've never experienced. I can't even imagine what would be said if they happened today. 

You'll notice how frequently winters are compared to a baseline of 1970 or so...those mid-20th century winters need to be swept under the rug by many who try to assert "winters ain't what they used to be".

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes it did. Although I'm sure every generations old timers always said winters of their youth were harder. It would just be particularly funny from the 1930s-50s. I give the 1960s a pass because they were cold winters, just often with a very suppressed storm track.

The 1930s and 1950s winters were mild, with several of them very high up on the warmest list. A few good snowstorms popped in from time to time, but it was a lot of bare ground and thaws. Januarys in the first half of the 1930s were horrendous. The 1940s weren't necessarily as warm, but they were terrible for snow. There a few 1940s warm snowless winters, and then several colder but dry ones, and also a few colder ones with poorly times storms (rain/ice). 

Pretty much every area in the region had plenty of shit winters in those decades, and I can name several from each of those decades that had a futility/weakness the likes of which I've never experienced. I can't even imagine what would be said if they happened today. 

You'll notice how frequently winters are compared to a baseline of 1970 or so...those mid-20th century winters need to be swept under the rug by many who try to assert "winters ain't what they used to be".

The early 30s were warm because of a persistent la nina pattern, but 1933-34 was historically cold and snowy.

The 1940s were very cold and snowy, especially 1942-43 and 1947-48

The 50s were warmer but had a lot of snow in March and the snowstorms in the 50s were long duration ones, like 1955-56, 1957-58.

The 60s were very cold and some of those years were historically snowy, like 1960-61, 1963-64 and 1966-67 especially.

 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

Also, once we get further into spring, many years of data shows the Euro to have a decided warm bias.

The Euro has a strong El Niño Costero next few months but it isn’t able to transition to full basin warming. Still too early to tell what happens due to the spring forecast barrier. Sometimes these Costero events go full basin like we saw in 2023-2024 and other times the signal fades out like in the spring of 2017. Getting a strong enough WWB and OKW is usually the determining factor as to whether the whole basin shifts into El Niño or not.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Feb CPC PNA came out at +1.41, lower than my projection of +1.55 to +1.9. So, that means Feb of 2025 came in 4th highest rather than top 3 because of 2016’s +1.48. The 3 highest were during El Niño.

2. It still comes in way higher than the previous high Feb for La Niña, 2000’s +1.12. Of course officially 2024-5 looks to be neutral. The old record high for neutral in Feb looks like it was +1.07 in 1991. So, 2/2025’s +1.41 easily beats that, too.

3. 2024-5 DJF PNA comes in at +1.39, a bit lower than I had projected due to Feb being below my projected range. That places it 3rd behind the two El Niños of 2015-6 (+1.43) and 1976-7 (+1.41). The +1.39 is well above the next highest.

 

Interesting that the only two stronger PNAs were a super El Nino, and an El Nino in the precipice of transition from long term Pacific cold phase to warm phase. I find the latter intriguing.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting that the only two stronger PNAs were a super El Nino, and an El Nino in the precipice of transition from long term Pacific cold phase to warm phase. I find the latter intriguing.

There are other signs that point to a Pacific transition too. And also one in the Atlantic.

I think we might be headed towards a 60s type pattern in a few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^QBO/ENSO has been correct on the Stratosphere state 3 Winter's in a row.. -QBO/El Nino favors warm Stratosphere, +QBO/La Nina favors cold Stratosphere. It's been an anomaly that those indexes have been lined up for 3 years in row, but an El Nino next Winter would make that 4 years in a row. 23-24 was a -QBO/El Nino but we had 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, and an overall warm Stratosphere state for the cold season... This Winter has been frigid at 10mb, and 22-23 was cold too.. both +QBO/Nina's.  It doesn't always make it to the surface, but it does most of the time. That makes the possible El Nino more sensitive to potential cold (-AO) going into next cold season. 

I think next season is slam dunk for a good winter if we get warm ENSO...especially for the northeast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There are other signs that point to a Pacific transition too. And also one in the Atlantic.

I think we might be headed towards a 60s type pattern in a few years.

I think more like 80s for the next few years until we get past the elevated geomagnetic energy and solar winds in the immediate aftermath of solar max, then maybe more like 60s towards the turn of the decade, closer to solar min. This is why I feel like next winter maybe Pacific driven without much NAO blocking, which would favor the northern mid atl and New England. It depends on how quickly we fade from max....we could sneak in one more season before geomag kicks up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also understand that it would be a CC modulated version of a 60's pattern, as well.....understand that is a tacit implication when I say "60's pattern".

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think more like 80s for the next few years until we get past the elevated geomagnetic energy and solar winds in the immediate aftermath of solar max, then maybe more like 60s towards the turn of the decade, closer to solar min. This is why I feel like next winter maybe Pacific driven without much NAO blocking, which would favor the northern mid atl and New England. It depens on how quickly we fade from max....we could sneak in one more season before geomag kicks up.

if we get an el nino do you think it would be like one of the el ninos from the 80s (not 82-83 of course since that was a mega el nino, but maybe more like 86-87 shifted somewhat northward?)

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

You have to realize how incredibly localized lake effect snow is. Only those within a 10 mile radius of a lake effect band get snow and those outside that range are literally dry. And most of us in the Great Lakes don't live downwind of the lake effect snow regions or we live too far away because again, it is incredibly localized. And lake effect snow has only been heavy for those snow belt regions thanks to the warm great lakes (as a result of the constant warm winters/summers). Synoptically, we've been near average snow wise last 10 years but no historical winters

I know that. But with these further north storm tracks, even places outside the traditional snow belts can do very well. While past -5 -AOs favored DC to Boston, this was another one that linked up with the Southeast Ridge which has become a regular occurrence in the 2020s. So the heaviest snows got pushed up into Canada instead with this much warmer storm track. But the most impressive records continue to be in the favored lake effect zones like we just saw in Gaylord. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

if we get an el nino do you think it would be like one of the el ninos from the 80s (not 82-83 of course since that was a mega el nino, but maybe more like 86-87 shifted somewhat northward?)

Yes....weaker El Nino/more N stream dominant with perhaps less NAO blocking.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also understand that it would be a CC modulated version of a 60's pattern, as well.....understand that is a tacit implication when I say "60's pattern".

what I like about CC modulation in this case is that the 60s were very dry and very cold-- taking NYC as an example we had two winters in there (62-63 and 67-68) that had an average temperature below 32 and also less than 20 inches of snow.  In a CC modulated world, I would expect more snow even if the temperatures were 2-3 degrees warmer.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes....weaker El nino with perhaps less NAO blocking.

Sounds good to me, 86-87 was a bit too far south for us, ended up being around average here with 25 inches of snow, while Jersey coast got 50 inches of snow lol.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think next season is slam dunk for a good winter if we get warm ENSO...especially for the northeast.

this almost feels like a 2013-14/2014-15 couplet (obviously with much less snow than what 2013-14 had this season.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what I like about CC modulation in this case is that the 60s were very dry and very cold-- taking NYC as an example we had two winters in there (62-63 and 67-68) that had an average temperature below 32 and also less than 20 inches of snow.  In a CC modulated world, I would expect more snow even if the temperatures were 2-3 degrees warmer.

Yes, I think we could have a small window like the 60's after solar min next decade, where we are susceptible to lots of blocking and maybe have a post warm phase flip back to a -PDO interlude for a few years....akin to the late 1980s with more blocking. I don't love the 60 comparison because we were right in the middle of a longer term Pacific cold phase that decade. I think a blockier 80s is a more apt comparison.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this almost feels like a 2013-14/2014-15 couplet (obviously with much less snow than what 2013-14 had this season.)

Yes....precisely. If we have an El Nino, 2014-2015 will be an upper tier analog for me....but just as we saw with the 2013 analog this season, snowfall is highly variable. That was a great analog in hindsight, but that doesn't mean snowfall will work out...this is especially true with respect to an analog that featured highly anomalous snowfall, like 2014-2015. I would expect it to be much snowier than this season for the north mid atl and S/CNE, though.