2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies suggest that (wind reversal or not in mid March) that the winter is nearly over. What I mean by that is no week-long period of BN temps for most of the E US. Other than New England being NN 3/3-9, the rest of the weeks are dominated by AN temp signals outside of FL the first 3 weeks.

Awesome.

I'm ready.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas opening -5.3%, definitely gives credence to the warm March idea. 

However, Natural Gas did rise +60% this Winter.  When I released my Winter forecast, it was $2.60. Now it's $4.00. That's a +$1.40 increase on $2.60. So the Winter was colder than expectations, as energy prices reflect this. 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Natural Gas opening -5.3%, definitely gives credence to the warm March idea. 

However, Natural Gas did rise +60% this Winter.  When I released my Winter forecast, it was $2.60. Now it's $4.00. That's a +$1.40 increase on $2.60. So the Winter was colder than expectations, as energy prices reflect this. 

Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks

NG down to 3.96

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks

NG down to 3.96

This is the first time since probably early November that the weeklies are warm throughout the entire run

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is the first time since probably early November that the weeklies are warm throughout the entire run

Fine by me...I've been convinced since January its just not the year for SNE because the longwave pattern was just off, despite the cold. It happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just a cursory glace at some very preliminary stuff...I'll go on record right now as saying I'll be shocked if there is another La Nina next year. I call BS on the guidance....I could fathom a neutral, but warm ENSO would not suprise me in the least.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think ENSO neutral is most likely for 2025-26, though I could see a weak la nina or weak el nino. If we get a non-neutral ENSO state in 2025-26, I get the feeling we'll get a sharp correction and a strong ENSO state in the opposite direction in 2026-27 (see 2006-07 -> 2007-08 and 2022-23 -> 2023-24).

[GaWx]

 We’re on the way to a top 3 CPC +PNA Feb since 1950 with top 2 possible. The only one that appears safe is the +2.04 of 1977. 1980’s +1.74 is 2nd. Both of those were El Niños. I’m projecting something within +1.55 to +1.9 for 2/2025. In 3rd is 2016’s +1.48, another El Niño.

 The highest Feb on record during La Niña is 2000’s +1.12.

 2024-5 is on track to be at least very close to the highest on record for DJF. Right now I have it being +1.42 to +1.53 with +1.46 to +1.50 most favored. The current highest is 2015-16’s +1.43 followed by 1976-7’s +1.41 (both El Niño). The highest on record for La Niña is only +0.89 (2000-1). That will be obliterated!

[GaWx]

We finally made it to the climo coldest day in the Arctic, Feb 25th (per blue line):

[GaWx]

NG is up 4% today on several colder days in the EUS (not overall pattern) during two early March mainly moderate cold snaps.

[GaWx]

 Rapid warming of OHC this month:

[GaWx]

On 2/24/2025 at 3:14 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Natural Gas opening -5.3%, definitely gives credence to the warm March idea. 

However, Natural Gas did rise +60% this Winter.  When I released my Winter forecast, it was $2.60. Now it's $4.00. That's a +$1.40 increase on $2.60. So the Winter was colder than expectations, as energy prices reflect this. 

Chuck, I see NG is -3.5% for the day currently.

[GaWx]

 Today’s 0Z GFS has a 60N 10 mb wind reversal on 3/10. But is it calling for a major SSW or a final warming?

 

 Back to 1958, there has been only one FW then or earlier, Mar 5th (2016). That one had the strongest Mar reversal on record (~-32). But there have also been three FWs on Mar 11-12. So, it is possible that it would be a FW. But there have also been 6 major SSW Mar 13-25.

1. 1965: SSW 3/25; FW 4/19

2. 1969: SSW 3/13; FW 4/13

3. 1971: SSW 3/20; FW 4/24

4. 1988: SSW 3/14; FW 4/6

5. 2000: SSW 3/20; FW 4/9

6. 2010: SSW 3/24; FW 4/30

 Right now I’d say the betting odds would somewhat favor major SSW. If that occurs, that doesn’t necessarily mean late Mar/Apr would be cool. If that were to be a FW, that also wouldn’t necessarily mean a cool late Mar and April would be favored. The 3/5/2016 FW is a great example as Mar as a whole was mild. (I didn’t check to see if the 2nd half by itself was cool, but that’s doubtful.)

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s 0Z GFS has a 60N 10 mb wind reversal on 3/10. But is it calling for a major SSW or a final warming?

 

 Back to 1958, there has been only one FW then or earlier, Mar 5th (2016). That one had the strongest Mar reversal on record (~-32). But there have also been three FWs on Mar 11-12. So, it is possible that it would be a FW. But there have also been 6 major SSW Mar 13-25.

1. 1965: SSW 3/25; FW 4/19

2. 1969: SSW 3/13; FW 4/13

3. 1971: SSW 3/20; FW 4/24

4. 1988: SSW 3/14; FW 4/6

5. 2000: SSW 3/20; FW 4/9

6. 2010: SSW 3/24; FW 4/30

 Right now I’d say the betting odds would somewhat favor major SSW. If that occurs, that doesn’t necessarily mean late Mar/Apr would be cool. If that were to be a FW, that also wouldn’t necessarily mean a cool late Mar and April would be favored. The 3/5/2016 FW is a great example as Mar as a whole was mild. (I didn’t check to see if the 2nd half by itself was cool, but that’s doubtful.)

Here’s my response to Bluewave’s post about this (SSWE/FW) in the NYC forum: 

  1 hour ago

“You bring up a very good point. Even if this SSWE was to occur, there are zero guarantees that it would even couple. None of the stratospheric displacements and wave reflection events this winter (since November) ever coupled with the troposphere, so why would this one? And even if it did, there is a lag from when this is projected to occur, that would bring us into the final week of March or the start of April before the impacts would be felt. Too little, too late. We will be into astronomical spring at that point and all that would do is piss off 90% of the members here when there’s a coastal storm and it’s in the 40’s and raining”

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

6. 2010: SSW 3/24; FW 4/30

 Right now I’d say the betting odds would somewhat favor major SSW. If that occurs, that doesn’t necessarily mean late Mar/Apr would be cool. If that were to be a FW, that also wouldn’t necessarily mean a cool late Mar and April would be favored.

The 2010 one should definitely debunk the myth. That was a record warm spring, which was followed by a record warm summer. By the way, that was coming off a record snow season (though that one came to an abrupt end, it was done by the end of February, and as early as mid-February in places Baltimore and south).

[LibertyBell]

On 2/23/2025 at 2:56 PM, Maxim said:

I’ll believe it when I see it

March 24 2010 is interesting, we had a very hot spring and summer that year, record breaking as a matter of fact.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/23/2025 at 3:48 PM, GaWx said:

I should add that if there is a reversal in mid March, I’m not saying it couldn’t end up being a FW since several FWs have occurred that early per what you said and the FW table I just posted. ~1 in 12 FWs since 1958 have occurred by Mar 13th. Some of the ensemble members appear to be FWs as they don’t come back up to the 0 line. We’ll no more as get closer to the possible wind reversal and the ensemble members start converging. Right now they’re all over the place.

March 24 2010 is interesting, we had a very hot spring and summer that year, record breaking as a matter of fact.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The 2010 one should definitely debunk the myth. That was a record warm spring, which was followed by a record warm summer. By the way, that was coming off a record snow season (though that one came to an abrupt end, it was done by the end of February, and as early as mid-February in places Baltimore and south).

Yes I just said this lol, it was my all time favorite spring and summer.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The 2010 one should definitely debunk the myth. That was a record warm spring, which was followed by a record warm summer. By the way, that was coming off a record snow season (though that one came to an abrupt end, it was done by the end of February, and as early as mid-February in places Baltimore and south).

 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

March 24 2010 is interesting, we had a very hot spring and summer that year, record breaking as a matter of fact.

 

Indeed, there are plenty of exceptions. Though it was a major SSW (a reversal that wasn’t a FW), this one (3/24/2010) was a very weak and short reversal and late enough so that it was only ~12 m/s BN at the low point:

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s 0Z GFS has a 60N 10 mb wind reversal on 3/10. But is it calling for a major SSW or a final warming?

 

 Back to 1958, there has been only one FW then or earlier, Mar 5th (2016). That one had the strongest Mar reversal on record (~-32). But there have also been three FWs on Mar 11-12. So, it is possible that it would be a FW. But there have also been 6 major SSW Mar 13-25.

1. 1965: SSW 3/25; FW 4/19

2. 1969: SSW 3/13; FW 4/13

3. 1971: SSW 3/20; FW 4/24

4. 1988: SSW 3/14; FW 4/6

5. 2000: SSW 3/20; FW 4/9

6. 2010: SSW 3/24; FW 4/30

 Right now I’d say the betting odds would somewhat favor major SSW. If that occurs, that doesn’t necessarily mean late Mar/Apr would be cool. If that were to be a FW, that also wouldn’t necessarily mean a cool late Mar and April would be favored. The 3/5/2016 FW is a great example as Mar as a whole was mild. (I didn’t check to see if the 2nd half by itself was cool, but that’s doubtful.)

 

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 

Indeed, there are plenty of exceptions. Though it was a major SSW (a reversal that wasn’t a FW), this one (3/24/2010) was a very weak and short reversal and late enough so that it was only ~12 m/s BN at the low point:

Larry, where do you get these charts?

[GaWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Larry, where do you get these charts?

Go to the bottom at this link for 1990-1 through 2022-3:

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/strat/

[GaWx]

This from Dr. Levi Cowan:

In the tweet below he said:

“My personal mission to bring hurricane science, data, and forecasts to the public would not be possible without the weather observations, doppler radar stations, computer models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and weather satellites provided by NOAA and the NWS. Your favorite weather apps, TV meteorologists, and private weather companies would also be unable to function without this data or the civil servants who live and breathe it to synthesize it into public safety information.

All of these benefits cost each taxpayer the equivalent of a few cups of coffee per year, and surveys show most would be willing to pay much more. The American weather enterprise saves many, many times more money than it costs to run, making it one of the biggest bangs for your buck in the government. 

The impact of quality weather forecasts and infrastructure on society is multiplied many-fold by preventing economic disruptions, keeping public transportation efficient, and providing lead time to prepare for and mitigate disasters. Most importantly, it saves priceless lives.

Careful, long-term plans to streamline or reorient the weather enterprise in an evolving world are not bad, but *this plan* is insane. A feverish rush to take a cleaver to this workforce is self-destructive and dangerous to Americans who rely on the services they provide.”

—————————

My comments: Massive cuts to the life-saving, very efficiently run NWS/NOAA would be very stupid and dangerous imho. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail!

 Edit: Of course as wx enthusiasts, most of us are probably going to be biased against cuts.

 

[GaWx]