2024-2025 La Nina

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

These record swings in a short period time have become the new normal as the Arctic has rapidly warmed. We just experienced one back in October. Then our last -5 back in 2021 also experienced a steep rise. So these -AOs don’t lock in for longer periods like they used to in the past. 

Greatest AO swings on record in around a month or less since 1950 and the date on which the maximum difference from low to high or high to low occurred with the numerical value of the swing

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

#1……+10.790……3-11-21

#2…...+9.401…….1-16-16

#3……+9.256……3-2-56

#4……+9.039……4-21-13

#5……+8.522……1-25-05

#6…...+8.462…..1-15-77

#7…….+8.268….3-16-68

#8…….+7.793….2-25-01

#9…….+7.731….3-23-86

#10……+7.720…2-4-11
 

#11……+7.641…..3-5-70

#12…..+7.502…..1-19-85

#13……+7.387….3-20-78

#14……+7.240….10-23-24

#15……+7117……1-23-52

#16…..+7.066…1-24-08

#17……+7.043…3-19-15

#18……+7.038…2-10-76

all the most extreme changes are positive none are negative?

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 Any guess on when Joe Bastardi is going to post his yearly “March Madness is coming, delayed spring” tweets out and say March, 1888, March, 1958, March, 1993 and March, 2018 are the analogs? 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Any guess on when Joe Bastardi is going to post his yearly “March Madness is coming, delayed spring” tweets out and say March, 1888, March, 1958, March, 1993 and March, 2018 are the analogs? 

You missed March 1956 and March 1984 lol

he might use them since they were la ninas

[GaWx]

Bismarck, ND, had a record low yesterday of -39F. There’s been only one low as cold or colder than that that later in the season there and that was the very next date: -43 on 2/19/1929. That’s quite impressive considering our warmer globe and especially because record low lows have been especially more difficult.

Minot, ND, set a new record low of -33F, which is the latest that cold in the season. Although records only go back to 1948, that’s obviously still quite impressive!

[Daniel Boone]

If Today's Euro Weeklies are right going to be a slow start to the mowing Season. Not good news for those in the Construction or Lawn Care Business. The latter moreso.

[Maxim]

CFS is dead set on a drastic pattern shift to warm/very warm for much of the CONUS starting around mid-March. It's super far out, but it's been remarkably consistent with this pattern change (has even trended warmer in recent days), so it'll be interesting to see what happens. It has support from the extended GEFS as well, so there may be some truth to it. One thing is clear, however: the first week of March will be cold.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Maxim said:

CFS is dead set on a drastic pattern shift to warm/very warm for much of the CONUS starting around mid-March. It's super far out, but it's been remarkably consistent with this pattern change (has even trended warmer in recent days), so it'll be interesting to see what happens. It has support from the extended GEFS as well, so there may be some truth to it. One thing is clear, however: the first week of March will be cold.

Traditionally the CFS is most accurate for the following month in the last week of the current month so we'll see where it's at on Monday, but it looks like the warmth is delayed but not denied.  But note, the last week of February is going to be mild too.  The actual pattern change will be happening next week, the pattern change away from long duration arctic air.  Sure we may be getting transient shots of cold air here and there but after this storm passes and this current arctic air goes away winter for all intents and purposes is over for the megalopolis.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Maybe we’ll have neutral for a change. 

[donsutherland1]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Any guess on when Joe Bastardi is going to post his yearly “March Madness is coming, delayed spring” tweets out and say March, 1888, March, 1958, March, 1993 and March, 2018 are the analogs? 

It happened even sooner than I could respond. 

[FPizz]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Any guess on when Joe Bastardi is going to post his yearly “March Madness is coming, delayed spring” tweets out and say March, 1888, March, 1958, March, 1993 and March, 2018 are the analogs? 

Man are you obsessed with him.  You might be his most loyal follower

[GaWx]

On Feb 18th, Topeka, KS, had a high of only 4F. That is the lowest high for so late in the season with records going back to 1888. The coldest high after Feb 18th is 8, set on 3/2/2014.

 Concordia, KS, had a very similar situation.

[GaWx]

This winter has far exceeded my expectations. I was expecting a mild winter in the SE US. My expectations were so low that I was already looking ahead to potential in 2025-6 ITT! As a bonus, I got 3” of mainly sleet/snow from 1.33” of liquid equivalent on Jan 21-2 with >2” of that sleet that stayed on the ground in shady areas for 5 days! My area averages a mere 0.2” of snow/sleet with the vast majority getting nothing measurable and most not even getting a T. The last wintry precip of any kind before that was in Jan of 2018, another major winter storm.

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This winter has far exceeded my expectations. I was expecting a mild winter in the SE US. My expectations were so low that I was already looking ahead to potential in 2025-6 ITT! As a bonus, I got 3” of mainly sleet/snow with >2” of that sleet that stayed on the ground in shady areas for 5 days! My area averages a mere 0.2” of snow/sleet.

This was a much, much colder winter nationally than we’ve seen in awhile. Almost the entire country was below normal for January. Maybe now we can get less of the obnoxious posts about how there will never be a cold winter month again. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, roardog said:

Maybe we’ll have neutral for a change. 

We already have a neutral this year. Not in the conventional sense (like our last one in 2013-14), but we had a late developing la nina in the WPAC and an el nino in the EPAC.

[snowman19]

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

That would be nice here because it would be a wet pattern too. We went into winter very dry and could use a wet spring.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

That would be nice here because it would be a wet pattern too. We went into winter very dry and could use a wet spring.

the dryness is a national pattern too, I foresee more warm and dry and hot and dry because the prevailing wind direction has been westerly for many months now, we have had two historically dry months here (October and January) and one month with zero precip (October)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

This winter has far exceeded my expectations. I was expecting a mild winter in the SE US. My expectations were so low that I was already looking ahead to potential in 2025-6 ITT! As a bonus, I got 3” of mainly sleet/snow from 1.33” of liquid equivalent on Jan 21-2 with >2” of that sleet that stayed on the ground in shady areas for 5 days! My area averages a mere 0.2” of snow/sleet with the vast majority getting nothing measurable and most not even getting a T. The last wintry precip of any kind before that was in Jan of 2018, another major winter storm.

January 2018 was both much colder and snowier here actually.

[GaWx]

 Nino 3.4 anomalies have over the last ~4 weeks warmed up substantially (~0.8C) to the warmest since Nov:

 

[bluewave]

Atmosphere trying to shift into El Niño mode as near record WWBs continue over the EPAC. 

 

[snowman19]

On 2/20/2025 at 6:42 AM, donsutherland1 said:

It happened even sooner than I could respond. 

From what I’ve read on twitter, he’s supposedly hyping record breaking arctic cold, delayed/“faux” spring and major blizzards/super storms up the east coast in March on the paid Wxbell site. Not surprising at all, he does this every single March 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

From what I’ve read on twitter, he’s supposedly hyping record breaking arctic cold, delayed/“faux” spring and major blizzards/super storms up the east coast in March on the paid Wxbell site. Not surprising at all, he does this every single March 

 He’s been talking about a “stratwarm” but he uses different criteria from 10 mb 60N mean wind reversal. There’s no forecasted reversal in sight (2 weeks).

 He showed the 6Z 2/20 Euro AI 240 hour map (as of 6Z on 3/2) “going out of its mind” with its 501 dm H5 ht over Bradford, PA, and compared it to the 3/13/1993 superstorm’s upper low of 503 dm over DC. He said that IF this Euro AI were to verify that there is going to be “record cold to open March in places”.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 He’s been talking about a “stratwarm” but he uses different criteria from 10 mb 60N mean wind reversal. There’s no reversal in forecasts or sight (2 weeks).

 He showed the 6Z 2/20 Euro AI 240 hour map (as of 6Z on 3/2) “going out of its mind” with its 501 dm H5 ht over Bradford, PA, and compared it to the 3/13/1993 superstorm’s upper low of 503 dm over DC. He said that IF this Euro AI were to verify that there is going to be “record cold to open March in places”.

Different year, same ending with him. He does this every single March for subscription money, attention, likes, views, follows and retweets. It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. He’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf, zero credibility anymore

[GaWx]

 Today the preliminary CPC PNA is +1.78, which was well predicted by GEFS. This is the highest winter daily CPC PNA since 12/7/20 and highest in Feb since 2/15/2017.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 He’s been talking about a “stratwarm” but he uses different criteria from 10 mb 60N mean wind reversal. There’s no forecasted reversal in sight (2 weeks).

 He showed the 6Z 2/20 Euro AI 240 hour map (as of 6Z on 3/2) “going out of its mind” with its 501 dm H5 ht over Bradford, PA, and compared it to the 3/13/1993 superstorm’s upper low of 503 dm over DC. He said that IF this Euro AI were to verify that there is going to be “record cold to open March in places”.

 Well, this changed on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is easily the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar and Ray’s feeling there’d likely be one late this winter.

@40/70 Benchmark

@snowman19

 

Here’s the 12Z Euro op 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Well, this changed on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is easily the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar and Ray’s feeling there’d likely be one late this winter.

@40/70 Benchmark

@snowman19

 

Here’s the 12Z Euro op 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

The "bottom up" split earlier this month, on the 10th, certainly was a curveball that biased the month colder. But this would be more in line with my original expectation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Different year, same ending with him. He does this every single March for subscription money, attention, likes, views, follows and retweets. It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. He’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf, zero credibility anymore

That is true about him, but this particular claim has traction.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Atmosphere trying to shift into El Niño mode as near record WWBs continue over the EPAC. 

 

That is my hope for next year....I think that would be a bullish signal for next winter.

[donsutherland1]

Some updates on last week’s thoughts:

1. A storm brought moderate to significant precipitation to the northeastern U.S. during February 15-16. Precipitation amounts included: Albany: 1.08”; Boston: 1.79”; New York City: 1.08”; and, Philadelphia: 0.94”. Philadelphia saw somewhat less precipitation than the 1”-2” cited.

2. The February 17-21 period was much colder than normal in Des Moines, Kansas City, and Omaha. Their respective anomalies were:  Des Moines: 26.4° below normal; Kansas City: 29.9° below normal; and, Omaha: -30.8° below normal . The coldest temperatures in those three cities were: Des Moines: -11°; Kansas City: -10° on February 20 (old record: 2°, 1918; Kansas City also set a daily record of -4° on February 19); and, Omaha: -15° on February 20 (old record: -11°, 1918).  Chicago had a low temperature of -5° on February 18. The last time Chicago saw a temperature at least as cold during the second half of February was February 28, 2015 the temperature fell to -10°.

In addition, Bismarck had a low temperature of -39° on February 18 (old record: -37°, 1910). That was Bismarck’s coldest temperature since January 15, 2009 when the thermometer dipped to -44°. Bismarck recorded lows of -35° on February 17 and -39° on February 18. The last time Bismarck had two low temperatures of -30° or colder during the second half of February was 1936 when the city saw two consecutive lows below -40°. Bismarck’s high temperature of -11° on February 17 was the coldest high temperature during the second half of February since February 18, 1966 when the temperature also topped out at -11°.

3. A significant (6” or more) snowstorm blanketed the Lower Mid-Atlantic Region during  February 19-20. The significant snowfall was confined to parts of North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Norfolk picked up 11.0”, its biggest snowfall since December 26-27, 2010 when 13.4” accumulated. Significant snow is possible but not assured in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City. As is frequently the case when Norfolk picks up 10” or more snow, cities such as Baltimore (Trace); New York (0.4”), Philadelphia (0.1”), and Washington (0.1”) picked up less than 1” of snow.

Three Thoughts Going Forward:

1. Saturday night through Sunday will see a significant rainfall in parts of eastern Texas. 1”-3” of rain is likely in Galveston and Houston.

2. The Southwest will see much warmer than normal conditions from Monday through Friday. Phoenix and Tucson could see their highest temperatures so far this year. The temperature could approach or reach record levels on February 26-27 in both Phoenix and Tucson. Phoenix will likely see its first 90° readings this year.

3. No significant (6” or above) snowstorms are likely from Washington, DC to Boston  or in the major Great Lakes cities (Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Toronto).

Longer-Range:

There are growing indications that a significant pattern realignment could occur in early March, possibly preceded by a fairly sharp cold shot.

Note: With winter coming to an end on February 28, this will be the last regular weekly post in this thread. The post will be verified.