2024-2025 La Nina

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Obviously the Great Lakes are a different climate than the east coast, but im noticing the cold vs snow thing, especially this year since its been such a cold January with very little snow (in the north) outside the lakes. Weve done ok in SE MI- snow has been below avg and precip well below avg, but we have had some snow on the ground nearly all month. But west of the lakes (Chicago, Minneapolis, Green Bay, etc) its been frozen dry ground. I have no problem with people liking what they like, but im definitely finding some weenies contradicting themselves locally. All the complaining about recent mild winters...but really, in the post 2007-15 record snow era, snowfall has been largely around avg here before last winter. So I have to say to them, if all you care about is snow thats fine, but then you need to give those mild winters more credit and less bitching lol. (again im talking about the masses...I personally love snow AND cold).

Yes one of my favorite and most memorable snowstorms happened during a mild winter overall, 2015-16, over 30 inches of snow in one snowstorm and -1 on Valentines Day!  One of my favorite winters for those two reasons alone (we also had some other moderate snowstorms that winter.)

We had over 40 inches of snow that season with a seasonal average temperature over 40 degrees.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t disagree for the most part. But I was responding to CWG’s tweet saying this:

“MJO approach to phase 7 could flip pattern back to cold side for U.S. by 2nd week of February, similar to super-warm late December
to cold early January flip from this winter.”

 So, the tweet was referring explicitly to temperatures and said nothing about snow. Thus, my response was referring to just temperatures based on what 0Z/6Z model consensus was showing. I wasn’t at all addressing snow, which is much more unpredictable, especially 11+ days out, since it is so dependent on precise storm track and actually having a storm at the right time.

 Also, some do care about temps on their own.

Yes-- and we're more focused on snow instead of cold also because cold has become more rare as the years go by (regardless of enso state, warmer winters are canonical now....)

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Early look for mid-March: 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Early look for mid-March: 

lol any reason why you're looking at Mid March? Winter will likely be over before then.

[purduewx80]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

@snowman19

 

7 is still warm in Feb. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

7 is still warm in Feb. 

Depends on the enso

[GaWx]

On 1/29/2025 at 7:13 PM, GaWx said:

 Both the CFS and the Euro Weeklies this winter have had the E (including the SE) with far BN temps several weeks in advance (and the coldest anomalies on the globe) and they remained consistent with the cold thereafter. These are just 3 examples of the many times they did with strong signals for cold in the E US:

Issued 12/28/24 for 1/13-19:

CFS 48 forecast mean (4 members, 12 runs 12/25-28) for 1/11-17:

 

CFS 48 forecast mean (4 members, 12 runs 12/29-1/1) for 1/15-22):

 

 In contrast, today’s significantly colder Euro map vs yesterday for 2/17-23 is at least as of yet nowhere near as cold:

 

Latest CFS 48 forecast mean for 2/20-7: still mild in E US

 

 Unfortunately for cold lovers like myself, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 & 2/24-3/2 totally reversed yesterday’s much colder runs for those two weeks and are back to a solid mild signal:

2/17-23:

 All 6 weeks of today’s run are this warm or warmer in the E US. The implied Feb avg is ~4F AN NYC and ~5-6F DC south. Would be very close to March normals in SE. Many places in the area DC south would have a Feb ~13-15 warmer than Jan.

 Be that as it may, there still appears to be a good shot at a 2-3 day long cold period starting Feb 8-9.

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Unfortunately for cold lovers like myself, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 & 2/24-3/2 totally reversed yesterday’s much colder runs for those two weeks and are back to a solid mild signal:

2/17-23:

 All 6 weeks of today’s run are this warm or warmer in the E US. The implied Feb avg is ~4F AN NYC and ~5-6F DC south. Would be very close to March normals in SE. Many places in the area DC south would have a Feb ~13-15 warmer than Jan.

Is there a scale for colors and departures? Also, why do the 2m and surface temp maps differ so much? I always considered them one in the same.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Is there a scale for colors and departures? Also, why do the 2m and surface temp maps differ so much? I always considered them one and the same.

-I thought 2m and surface were the same.

-Please show me where they’re different.

-Shades of red: anomalies in degrees C

1st: 0 to +1

2nd: +1 to +3

3rd: +3 to +6

4th: +6 to +10

5th: +10+

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Obviously the Great Lakes are a different climate than the east coast, but im noticing the cold vs snow thing, especially this year since its been such a cold January with very little snow (in the north) outside the lakes. Weve done ok in SE MI- snow has been below avg and precip well below avg, but we have had some snow on the ground nearly all month. But west of the lakes (Chicago, Minneapolis, Green Bay, etc) its been frozen dry ground. I have no problem with people liking what they like, but im definitely finding some weenies contradicting themselves locally. All the complaining about recent mild winters...but really, in the post 2007-15 record snow era, snowfall has been largely around avg here before last winter. So I have to say to them, if all you care about is snow thats fine, but then you need to give those mild winters more credit and less bitching lol. (again im talking about the masses...I personally love snow AND cold).

If you scroll down. You will see 2m first and then surface. They are always different. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]}

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

If you scroll down. You will see 2m first and then surface. They are always different. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]}

I never noticed there was a different Euro Weeklies chart for surface! I always look at 2m. 
 
 For determining frost on ground, I’d think surface would be more important than 2m. On good radiational cooling nights, you may already realize that surface is sometimes couple of degrees colder than 2m due to colder air being heavier. But 2m is official. And thus I’ll continue to use those.

 On nights after a cold front has just come through and the cold winds are advecting colder air, I’d think sfc would tend to be slightly warmer.

 When sun is out, the ground should be warmer than 2m, especially in summer.