2024-2025 La Nina

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The break should be brief until the MJO goes back into the favorable phases. We need a change because suppression isn't working for alot of areas. 

Anything to get rid of this cold

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything to get rid of this cold

I do think we warm up but it shouldn't mean the end of winter.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything to get rid of this cold

I agree.  If no additional snow threats (and I mean decent snow threats) who needs it.

Let it warm up and rain at least to wash away all this road salt.

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I do think we warm up but it shouldn't mean the end of winter.

Latest Gefs extended gets the wave in Phase 8 by February 20th. That's a good Phase with a trough in the east.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As far as the pattern, this MJO wave is very strong, convection is exploding, you can see it on the satellite views of the IO and AAM is dropping very negative. We are clearly going into a well coupled La Niña state by early February. It’s fitting February La Niña climo perfectly 

Be honest about one thing...what would you be saying to folks like @MJO812at this point in the season if cold had been largely relegated to the long term charts  Not to say that it won't warm up, because it will.

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Gefs extended gets the wave in Phase 8 by February 20th. That's a good Phase with a trough in the east.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

The bias corrected Euro sits and spins in the warm phases, which is similar to the CFS. 
 

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The bias corrected Euro sits and spins in the warm phases, which is similar to the CFS. 
 

You mean spins and dies. That's not the kind of wave Snowman was talking about.

[snowman19]

This is a result of the SPV becoming extremely strong and starting to couple with the troposphere. The AO/NAO are both about to go ++