2024-2025 La Nina

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The break should be brief until the MJO goes back into the favorable phases. We need a change because suppression isn't working for alot of areas. 

Anything to get rid of this cold

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything to get rid of this cold

I do think we warm up but it shouldn't mean the end of winter.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything to get rid of this cold

I agree.  If no additional snow threats (and I mean decent snow threats) who needs it.

Let it warm up and rain at least to wash away all this road salt.

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I do think we warm up but it shouldn't mean the end of winter.

Latest Gefs extended gets the wave in Phase 8 by February 20th. That's a good Phase with a trough in the east.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As far as the pattern, this MJO wave is very strong, convection is exploding, you can see it on the satellite views of the IO and AAM is dropping very negative. We are clearly going into a well coupled La Niña state by early February. It’s fitting February La Niña climo perfectly 

Be honest about one thing...what would you be saying to folks like @MJO812at this point in the season if cold had been largely relegated to the long term charts  Not to say that it won't warm up, because it will.

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Gefs extended gets the wave in Phase 8 by February 20th. That's a good Phase with a trough in the east.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

The bias corrected Euro sits and spins in the warm phases, which is similar to the CFS. 
 

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The bias corrected Euro sits and spins in the warm phases, which is similar to the CFS. 
 

You mean spins and dies. That's not the kind of wave Snowman was talking about.

[snowman19]

This is a result of the SPV becoming extremely strong and starting to couple with the troposphere. The AO/NAO are both about to go ++

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 years ago, the clipper turned Nor'easter: 

Prior to Sunday, this was the last time the Philadelphia Eagles played in a snow game in the playoffs. They defeated the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, to reach Super Bowl XXXIX.

[LakeEffectOH]

15 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

The bias corrected Euro sits and spins in the warm phases, which is similar to the CFS. 
 

Looks as the mean gets stuck in the COD.  IMHO, that means a muted effect.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

20 years ago, the clipper turned Nor'easter: 

Prior to Sunday, this was the last time the Philadelphia Eagles played in a snow game in the playoffs. They defeated the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, to reach Super Bowl XXXIX.

I remember that storm. 5 inches of cold smoke. Loved it

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

20 years ago, the clipper turned Nor'easter: 

Prior to Sunday, this was the last time the Philadelphia Eagles played in a snow game in the playoffs. They defeated the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, to reach Super Bowl XXXIX.

Remember it well. Detroit saw 12.2". This was insane for a clipper. Lots of blizzard conditions too. I remember they were already hyping it up as a clipper on steroids, I think forecasting 5-8" (most clippers are 1-3, 2-4, etc). But it wayy overperformed.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/21/2025 at 6:20 AM, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The February pattern change cometh
 

thank goodness, because the January pattern absolutely sucked

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2025 at 12:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think regardless of ENSO, there is reason for optimism next season. 

Ray I thought you said that you believe the next two seasons will be less snowy because of the lag effect from the solar max?

Then again, it can't get less snowier than now, so there's no way to go but up.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

20 years ago, the clipper turned Nor'easter: 

Prior to Sunday, this was the last time the Philadelphia Eagles played in a snow game in the playoffs. They defeated the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, to reach Super Bowl XXXIX.

it's also the anniversary of the greatest snowstorm the east coast has ever seen, the famous January blizzard of 2016!

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan2016

Over 30 inches at both JFK and Allentown is quite the accomplishment!

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thank goodness, because the January pattern absolutely sucked

 

 Obviously that depends on location bigtime to clarify for the readers! The SE US overall has obviously had this month one of the best patterns ever for wintry precip! The MidAtlantic has done well, too. Mainly only the NE has been below normal in the E US.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2025 at 9:21 AM, MJO812 said:

I do think we warm up but it shouldn't mean the end of winter.

it's February after all, it can snow here-- and snow a lot-- even with a +5 February.  

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Obviously that depends on location bigtime to clarify for the readers! The SE US overall has obviously had this month one of the best patterns ever for wintry precip! The MidAtlantic has done well, too. Mainly only the NE has been below normal in the E US.

Yes, the dry and cold up here has resulted in a major RSV outbreak (viruses are more communicable in dry and cold weather, bacteria in warm and humid weather.)

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Obviously that depends on location bigtime to clarify for the readers! The SE US overall has obviously had this month one of the best patterns ever for wintry precip! The MidAtlantic has done well, too. Mainly only the NE has been below normal in the E US.

Oh the Midwest has lacked in snowfall too.

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh the Midwest has lacked in snowfall too.

 

I meant closer to the east coast. But yeah, Chicago has had BN snow this month. Then again, the Ohio valley to MO has also been quite snowy. My point was to clarify for the readers that the sucky pattern was not only not sucky in many other areas in the E US but was even the opposite (great) in a large portion (Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley to  lower Midwest south). 
 Related to this, when it is a great pattern for the south it often isn’t in the north.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I meant closer to the east coast. But yeah, Chicago has had BN snow this month. Then again, the Ohio valley to MO has also been quite snowy. My point was to clarify for the readers that the sucky pattern was not only not sucky in many other areas in the E US but was even the opposite (great) in a large portion (Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley to  lower Midwest south). 
 Related to this, when it is a great pattern for the south it often isn’t in the north.

Is it really great for DC and Baltimore though, I thought it was right around average there.  Great from North Carolina and points southward though.

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is it really great for DC and Baltimore though, I thought it was right around average there.  Great from North Carolina and points southward though.

Yes! Baltimore/DC more than 200% of normal Jan snowfall MTD. DC 8” vs 3” normal, for example. Even Atlantic City and Wilmington, DE are above normal with 6” vs 4” normal. And even Phil has been near normal.

[George001]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Be honest about one thing...what would you be saying to folks like @MJO812at this point in the season if cold had been largely relegated to the long term charts  Not to say that it won't warm up, because it will.

My concern is that the dry pattern remains on guidance even as we go from deep cold to more seasonal temps. My hope was that we would see the SE ridge flex, shift the storm track north and get hit fairly hard late Jan into Feb. but guidance doesn’t show that happening. It more goes from cold and dry to seasonal and dry.

[FPizz]

An average year had 14" of snow through Jan where I am, and am currently at 13".  So, pretty average in that department.  I'll take it with the cold that has been around mostly since Thanksgiving.  It has felt like real winter.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Looks as the mean gets stuck in the COD.  IMHO, that means a muted effect.

Euro weeklies are trending colder for February again pushing back the warmth .

[LakePaste25]

There should be continued snow chances in the Northeast as long as every vort that drops in from the Pacific is not getting buried in the southwest. Whether they cut, go inland or go coastal depends on individual tracks and wave spacing. 

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro weeklies are trending colder for February again pushing back the warmth .

Not BN but I see Feb 3-9 has cooled in the NE to NN vs AN earlier though the SE is still a bit AN with a SE ridge:

 

Feb 3-9 is also a bit cooler in the NE with only slightly AN to NN vs AN in earlier runs. But again the SE is AN (moderately) but like 1st map it’s NN along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts due to the lingering cold waters from the very cold Jan:

 After this, while the SE/MidAtlantic are still AN and there’s not even a hint of blue in the E US with an RNA, New England remains NN. 
 

In summary, it overall looks like a much warmer month than Jan, especially MidAtlantic south, but NE still stays near normal. Euro Weeklies have done very well this winter making calls, including the cold Jan. So, I’d take it’s warmer Feb forecast with much more than a grain.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Not BN but I see Feb 3-9 has cooled in the NE to NN vs AN earlier though the SE is still a bit AN with a SE ridge:

 

Feb 3-9 is also a bit cooler in the NE with only slightly AN to NN vs AN in earlier runs. But again the SE is AN (moderately) but like 1st map it’s NN along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts due to the lingering cold waters from the very cold Jan:

 After this, while the SE/MidAtlantic are still AN and there’s not even a hint of blue in the E US with an RNA, New England remains NN. 
 

In summary, it overall looks like a much warmer month than Jan, especially MidAtlantic south, but NE still stays near normal. Euro Weeklies have done very well this winter making calls, including the cold Jan. So, I’d take it’s warmer Feb forecast with much more than a grsin4

They are usually wrong but they have been good this winter.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh the Midwest has lacked in snowfall too.

 

The midwest/upper midwest is WELL below normal to date west of the Lakes. It was -20° in Rochester, MN this week with no snow on the ground. 

Here in MI outside the lake snowbelt it's dry and cold with lots of flakes and dusters but no big storm. It's wild to think about it...Detroit has seen snow fall on 21 of the first 23 days of January, but the month to date snowfall is 8.6" and 14.0" on the season (normal to date is 21"). As a winter lover, it's great to see the mood flakes, the local lakes thick with ice, and a constant albeit not deep snowcover. But the lack of anything meaningful starts to really grind on you as we hit mid winter. My eyes are glued to the window for the first flakes of Oct/Nov, but when they become a daily occurrence & you know that any storms are hundreds if not thousands of miles away, it's not quite the same. I will gladly take the gamble to change up the pattern, even if we have to flirt with rainers and get thaws in order to increase the chance of some good snowstorms.

IF this pattern were producing more clippers it would be a completely different story. But it's not.