2024-2025 La Nina

[Terpeast]

 

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

easily could have been very snowy up here, but we have had shit luck with kickers... one a couple of weeks ago and another this coming week. things just aren't coming together. however, the MA is going to be AN on the year through the end of Jan 

Not AN yet, but getting closer. I had over 11 inches in January so far, which brings me to 60% of climo on the season. Some places are 75% there

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

One of the reasons I’d argue why this winter is less snowier outside of the lake effect and upslope mountain regions is the H5 pattern. Compared to 13-14, the mean long wave trough axis is further east.

 

That massive +PNA ridge which has centered the trough right over the east has been killing any storm threats. 

I prefer 13-14 that featured an Aleutian ridge/-EPO pattern with a neutral to slightly negative PNA. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

Not AN yet, but getting closer. I had over 11 inches in January so far, which brings me to 60% of climo on the season. Some places are 75% there

Yea with this snowfall yesterday we are sitting at about a foot so far this season which is a little less than half of our yearly climo snowfall and so far on the month to month we are right near average amounts.

[Maxim]

This winter has been nothing like 13-14 at all.

[raindancewx]

On 8/31/2024 at 4:26 PM, raindancewx said:

My forecast calls for -3 to -5 for the Northeast this winter, with the first ever 0" snowfall season for the Boston area. Nothing but 37-42 degree rain, with storm after storm moving in during the 'just warm enough' afternoons but never at night. After each storm, a powerful cold front will drive through pushing temps well below average overnight. These cold fronts will also clear the moisture out of the air. So lows will be cold with highs near average. But timing will prevent measurable snow. You saw it here first.

Meanwhile due to slightly better timing, with storms arriving in the morning, Philadelphia and DC will be just cold enough for each system, and see 50-60 inches of snow. The South will be graced with ice and sleet, floods, tornado outbreaks, with the Plains and West alternating between brief record cold snaps and +10 readings for the rest of the winter.

 

Pretty historic south of I-10 snow in the South fits the bill. I'm sure the Don guy will complain the BAMWX only called for two inches in New Orleans in a couple days or something.

I liked 2013-14 in the fall for this winter as an imperfect guide to this winter for four reasons -

1) -WPO in Nov/Dec when it was pretty cold at times for a lot of the US like I expected this year. The idea was this year was a bridge pattern to a neutral/positive PDO future, as 2013-14 was.

2) For those of you in the NE, you didn't really have major storms in 2013-14. Just a lot of small events. Philly had 14 days with an inch of snow but only 5 of those 14 days had over 4 inches. Only 3 of 14 were over 6 inches. That's despite 68 inches of snow.

3) My research from prior winters still supported a lot of cold days (5F below average for the day or colder) in ABQ even with ACE getting higher in October. The data implied 22 cold days for Nov-Feb here. We're at 11 cold days in January following 7 total in Nov (6) and Dec (1). We actually may end on the high side of the correlation...although it does look much warmer after this cold snap. I believe we're seeing the coldest Jan 1-20 locally since 2013, and that's with very warm days in the 60s early month. In Dec 2013 we had 8 or so cold days, and I assumed everything would be delayed a month or so v. 2013, and blended in with the other similar years.

4) The US tends to see one pretty cold winter 0-18 months within both the top and bottom of the solar cycle. Think 2009-2010 and 2013-14 or 2014/15 last time. 1995-96 and 2000-01 or 2002-03 before that. More recently 2020-21. You can go further back - 1976-77 and 1981-82, it holds up in nearly all the cycles.

The Bering Sea Rule that I use for 17-21 days lead times on the WPO implied a very -WPO look for most of January would fade late month based on NE Asia storm tracks in December. CPC now has the SW US cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period, with the East & Plains warm. For Feb-Apr that's the pretty canonical +WPO look, particularly since the breakage of the -WPO should accompany wetter conditions for California. Also forecast now. It's not really -PNA dominance, that's coldest NW and dry in the SW US.

[snowman19]

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The February pattern change cometh
 

[chubbs]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Pretty historic south of I-10 snow in the South fits the bill. I'm sure the Don guy will complain the BAMWX only called for two inches in New Orleans in a couple days or something.

I liked 2013-14 in the fall for this winter as an imperfect guide to this winter for four reasons -

1) -WPO in Nov/Dec when it was pretty cold at times for a lot of the US like I expected this year. The idea was this year was a bridge pattern to a neutral/positive PDO future, as 2013-14 was.

2) For those of you in the NE, you didn't really have major storms in 2013-14. Just a lot of small events. Philly had 14 days with an inch of snow but only 5 of those 14 days had over 4 inches. Only 3 of 14 were over 6 inches. That's despite 68 inches of snow.

3) My research from prior winters still supported a lot of cold days (5F below average for the day or colder) in ABQ even with ACE getting higher in October. The data implied 22 cold days for Nov-Feb here. We're at 11 cold days in January following 7 total in Nov (6) and Dec (1). We actually may end on the high side of the correlation...although it does look much warmer after this cold snap. I believe we're seeing the coldest Jan 1-20 locally since 2013, and that's with very warm days in the 60s early month. In Dec 2013 we had 8 or so cold days, and I assumed everything would be delayed a month or so v. 2013, and blended in with the other similar years.

4) The US tends to see one pretty cold winter 0-18 months within both the top and bottom of the solar cycle. Think 2009-2010 and 2013-14 or 2014/15 last time. 1995-96 and 2000-01 or 2002-03 before that. More recently 2020-21. You can go further back - 1976-77 and 1981-82, it holds up in nearly all the cycles.

The Bering Sea Rule that I use for 17-21 days lead times on the WPO implied a very -WPO look for most of January would fade late month based on NE Asia storm tracks in December. CPC now has the SW US cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period, with the East & Plains warm. For Feb-Apr that's the pretty canonical +WPO look, particularly since the breakage of the -WPO should accompany wetter conditions for California. Also forecast now. It's not really -PNA dominance, that's coldest NW and dry in the SW US.

This year it has snowed 7 times in Philly for a total of 4.8". At this point in 2013/14 it had snowed 8 times for 33.7". Precipitation since Dec 1, is only 3.84" vs 8.49" in 13/14. The temperatures are a good match to 13/14 but it has been much drier/less snowy this winter.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

A historic Gulf Coast snowstorm is underway. Already, Houston has seen its first measurable snowfall since February 15, 2021 with 0.2" yesterday. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973. The only storm to bring measurable snowfall to Houston, New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, Pensacola, and Tallahassee, as is likely with the ongoing storm, was the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm.

Some snowfall amounts of 1" or above have already been measured.

The 1/21 0z HREF:

Parts of the region are even under an extremely rare blizzard warning:

A contingency table for measurable snow events at select Gulf Coast cities:

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The February pattern change cometh
 

Yes, it's now beginning to show up prominently.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The February pattern change cometh
 

Very bad for winter lovers in the SE, but this should be good for the mid-Atlantic and especially NE, which should have above average precip for the first half of Feb.

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Very bad for winter lovers in the SE, but this should be good for the mid-Atlantic and especially NE, which should have above average precip for the first half of Feb.

 

Verbatim that precip map could well be indicative of lakes cutters and inside runners

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Verbatim that precip map could well be indicative of lakes cutters and inside runners

Or overrunning. I do think we enter a mild period but it should be brief.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, it's now beginning to show up prominently.

The mjo is going to skip most of the warm phases.

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The mjo is going to skip most of the warm phases.

It still doesn't look like a disaster, but it will be warmer relative to normal than January has been. I reserve judgment about the second half of February, but can't rule out a break to a much warmer pattern for at least a time. The Great Lakes Region might have some opportunities to increase their seasonal snowfall amounts with a wetter pattern developing. Whether the storms cut will have a big impact farther east, especially for the Middle Atlantic region.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Very bad for winter lovers in the SE, but this should be good for the mid-Atlantic and especially NE, which should have above average precip for the first half of Feb.

 

Havent winter lovers in the SE already had more winter than theyve had the last decade combined lol?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Havent winter lovers in the SE already had more winter than theyve had the last decade combined lol?

Yeah, I had no idea it could snow in places like New Orleans and Jacksonville, lol.

[LakePaste25]

While I happen to be doing fine with lake effect, 135” on the season (well above normal), and snow cover since thanksgiving weekend, others in this region that do not receive much lake effect snow have felt that they have been stuck in the freezer with few synoptic snow opportunities other than dry clippers that bring some light accumulations.

A warmer and wetter pattern, even if it runs the risk of rain, seems to be what is wanted. Also, Lake Erie is freezing over, so I would not mind an active pattern myself. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

While I happen to be doing fine with lake effect, 135” on the season (well above normal), and snow cover since thanksgiving weekend, others in this region that do not receive much lake effect snow have felt that they have been stuck in the freezer with few synoptic snow opportunities other than dry clippers that bring some light accumulations.

A warmer and wetter pattern, even if it runs the risk of rain, seems to be what is wanted. Also, Lake Erie is freezing over, so I would not mind an active pattern myself. 

We have a 1-2 inch crust of snow on the ground and everything is frozen solid. Its an ice fisherman's dream. January has been deep winter for sure, but dry, cold winter. Lots of flakes in the air but just sitting at 12.9" on the season. Will welcome a more active pattern with open arms. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

IRI hinting at a la nina for 2025-26: 

[LakePaste25]

24 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

IRI hinting at a la nina for 2025-26: 

I wonder if they see something that other’s don’t. This year made sense because we almost always swing to Nina after a strong Nino. But next year seems less certain until we cross the spring predictability barrier. 

[raindancewx]

These -10 to -20 dew points we've been seeing in New Mexico, + the arctic air are a pretty potent combination. I don't think the cold would have penetrated with mid-20s down to New Orleans and Pensacola without both. If anything resembling this level of dry air remains in the West when heat and moisture return from the Gulf in 4-8 weeks, it's going to be stupidly tornadic in the mid-south in the Spring. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Verbatim that precip map could well be indicative of lakes cutters and inside runners

That looks more Miller B, to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

IRI hinting at a la nina for 2025-26: 

I think regardless of ENSO, there is reason for optimism next season.