2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

PNA and WPO are also important.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PNA and WPO are also important.

You're not getting an EL Nino - EPO where the trough is just busting through .

Which of your maps does this look like ?

[MJO812]

Not to mention both of these teleconnections argue for a trough further east.

These squash any southeast ridge. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, George001 said:

Yep, the snowy -EPO dominant patterns with little to no blocking like Feb 2015 had the western ridge axis centered near Montana. The pattern advertised on long range guidance near the Jan 20th period is different because the western ridge axis is off the west coast. My read on the advertised pattern is it’s a cold pattern, but not a snowy one for coastal areas since the pattern favors lows running inland and warm sectoring us. Definitely looks more like 18-19 than 14-15, classic cold warm up rain, then cold again pattern. Not going to get a classic east coast nor’easter with that look for sure, but hopefully we can score some swfe type systems.

an 80s type pattern

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there will be front enders, which 2018-2019 had plenty of. If things are timed right, some bonafide SWFEs, too.

and I'm not sure if many people understand this or not but most of our snowfall average consists of front enders, we very rarely get 6"+ plus snowstorms that are all snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You're not getting an EL Nino - EPO where the trough is just busting through .

Which of your maps does this look like ?

Does it matter given that's January??

[snowman19]

My confidence is increasing in a canonical La Niña pattern coming up:

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doea it matter given that's January??

We shall see about February .

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

My confidence is increasing in a canonical La Niña pattern coming up:
 

Phase 2 and phase 3 are cold 

Keep it up with your winter ends posts.

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 2 and phase 3 are cold 

Keep it up with your winter ends posts.

A common theme in modoki la Nina’s is the storm track shifts north in Feb and Mar. Usually that’s not good for the east because it means rain. However, this year has been both colder and has a MUCH farther south storm track than a typical modoki Nina. So the cold shifting more west with the storm track shifting NW come Feb-Mar may not be such a bad thing snow wise. Also depends on what the MJO does. Yeah, If it goes into the null phases after 2-3 that would help us out a lot. Avoiding phases 4-6 is the key. Feb is a tough call, looks more stormy on the long range guidance but temps are a big question mark. It will likely be warmer than Jan, but there is a huge difference between normal or even slightly above normal and a +5 torch. That could easily be the difference between big snows and no snow.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 2 and phase 3 are cold 

Keep it up with your winter ends posts.

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 hours ago, George001 said:

A common theme in modoki la Nina’s is the storm track shifts north in Feb and Mar. Usually that’s not good for the east because it means rain. However, this year has been both colder and has a MUCH farther south storm track than a typical modoki Nina. So the cold shifting more west with the storm track shifting NW come Feb-Mar may not be such a bad thing snow wise. Also depends on what the MJO does. Yeah, If it goes into the null phases after 2-3 that would help us out a lot. Avoiding phases 4-6 is the key. Feb is a tough call, looks more stormy on the long range guidance but temps are a big question mark. It will likely be warmer than Jan, but there is a huge difference between normal or even slightly above normal and a +5 torch. That could easily be the difference between big snows and no snow.

I think February will be near normal temperaturewise, at least to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast (the Southeast might torch). The first 10-15 days will give good snow to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I think March is the month when the mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have the +5 torch.

[SnoSki14]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

an 80s type pattern

This sentiment needs to be put to rest. 

No this is a 2020s pattern. The 80s were substantially colder and snowier than the 2020s. This is the CC era pattern 

[so_whats_happening]

Ill take this whatever winter pattern. Have had snow on the ground (~1") since January 3rd just refreshed with the last two systems 3" and 1.5" bringing our year total so far to about 7" on the season. This is the longest we have had snow on the ground in quite some time, yea sure it is not feet of snow but snow regardless. Still looking for one 12"+ system to end my season and Ill happily move on maybe something will get sniffed out here within the next 2 weeks.

My heating bill is saying wtf is going on right now for how 'mundane' this cold pattern is.

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming

This winter has been epic from the standpoint of watching you bust in December and January . 

It's better than 5 feet of snow. I don't mind this winter at all with a few little snowfalls and the pattern still looks really good for more snow.

[so_whats_happening]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming

Social media is killing you man, take a a step away.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

This sentiment needs to be put to rest. 

No this is a 2020s pattern. The 80s were substantially colder and snowier than the 2020s. This is the CC era pattern 

No they were not, they were actually worse

There is still -NO WINTER- in recent memory that matches the absolute frustration that occurred between 1988-89 and 1991-92, which not coincidentally was also near the solar max.

To be clear we're talking about the late 80s, not the early part of the decade. We're also cycling back to a drier pattern like we had back then.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming

But you seem to think *canonical la nina* means no snow, thats not what it means and even in the hyper warm February 2018 we had more snow than we had this month.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This winter has been epic from the standpoint of watching you bust in December and January . 

It's better than 5 feet of snow. I don't mind this winter at all with a few little snowfalls and the pattern still looks really good for more snow.

Yes, more snow today than we had last Monday

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming

you know as well as I do those early season snowfalls were undermeasured at Central Park, use the average of the airports to see the real snowfall in December, it was around 3.5 which is about average.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

This sentiment needs to be put to rest. 

No this is a 2020s pattern. The 80s were substantially colder and snowier than the 2020s. This is the CC era pattern 

also, there is no real connection between climate change and snowfall where we live.  You can get either extreme.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This winter has been epic from the standpoint of watching you bust in December and January . 

It's better than 5 feet of snow. I don't mind this winter at all with a few little snowfalls and the pattern still looks really good for more snow.

I think he needs to move to Miami or something since he hates snow so much.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

A common theme in modoki la Nina’s is the storm track shifts north in Feb and Mar. Usually that’s not good for the east because it means rain. However, this year has been both colder and has a MUCH farther south storm track than a typical modoki Nina. So the cold shifting more west with the storm track shifting NW come Feb-Mar may not be such a bad thing snow wise. Also depends on what the MJO does. Yeah, If it goes into the null phases after 2-3 that would help us out a lot. Avoiding phases 4-6 is the key. Feb is a tough call, looks more stormy on the long range guidance but temps are a big question mark. It will likely be warmer than Jan, but there is a huge difference between normal or even slightly above normal and a +5 torch. That could easily be the difference between big snows and no snow.

February can be mild and you can still get more snow than you had this month, remember February 2018?

[mitchnick]

The key to February is that all long range guidance has precip AN all along the east coast. So warmer temps and AN precip in February is conducive to snowfall.

[Maxim]

Think once we lose the -EPO the east coast torches. Though it may not be until mid-late Feb by the time that happens.

[Snowstorms]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But you seem to think *canonical la nina* means no snow, thats not what it means and even in the hyper warm February 2018 we had more snow than we had this month.

I think his idea of "canonical La Nina" are winters like 2022-23, 2011-12, 1999-00, or 1998-99 which were straight blowtorches, but they weren't necessarily because of an overpowered SE ridge. 

A true canonical La Nina winter has cold anomalies centered across the Upper Midwest, Plains, and Canadian Prairies and neither of those winters above had that with the exception of 2022-23 in a few spots thanks to a really cold December. A true canonical La Nina winter may feature warm periods in the east but equal amounts of cold shots or a cold winter month or two, i.e., Dec-Jan 2009, Dec-mid Feb 2018, etc. 

Temperature wise, 2021-22 was the last true canonical La Nina winter. The warm anomalies in the south are primarily because of a near record warm December. That was likely driven by an overpowered SE ridge, +AMO, and climate change. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Some updates on last week’s thoughts:

1. Temperatures have averaged much below normal across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England areas this week. Temperature anomalies from January 5-10 were as follows: Atlanta: -7.9°; Baltimore: -8.1°; Boston: -5.7°; Chicago: -3.9°; Detroit: -5.0°; Indianapolis: -9.0°; New York: -5.9°; Norfolk: -8.2°; Philadelphia: -6.6°; Raleigh: -8.7°; Richmond: -10.6°; Washington, DC: -8.0°.

2. A storm brought heavy snow from the Plains States to the Mid-Atlantic region during January 5-7. Snowfall totals included: Baltimore: 6.6”; Indianapolis: 7.8”; St. Louis: 8.5”; Richmond: 3.5”; and Washington, DC: 7.2”. These amounts were in line with what had been expected. A separate storm brought snow to the Southeast on January 10^th. Amounts included: Atlanta 2.1”; Augusta: 1.0”; and Birmingham: 2.0”. The last time all three cities saw 1” or more in the same storm was February 12-13, 2014. That second storm also brought 3.0” to Richmond and 0.5” to New York City.

3. Indianapolis saw the temperature bottom out at 5° on January 9. Although Chicago saw a low temperature of 14°, Detroit saw the mercury dip to 7° on January 9. The low in Detroit was somewhat colder than had been expected in my discussion.

Three Thoughts Going Forward:

1. Dry weather will continue in southern California through the week. Little or no rainfall is likely in such cities as Blythe, Camarillo, Lancaster, Los Angeles, and Palm Springs.

2. A significant (6”+) snowstorm is unlikely in the big cities of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions (Richmond to Boston) during the upcoming week.

3. A strong cold shot will affect the Great Lakes Region Tuesday through Thursday. Indianapolis could see the mercury dip to 0° or slightly below. Detroit and Chicago could see one or more single-digit low temperatures. This is very cold but does not rival what could reasonably be described as historic cold.

Longer-Range:

A slow moderation in temperatures is likely to commence late in the third week of January or during the fourth week of January. Precipitation could increase to above normal levels over the closing 7-10 days of January.

 The long-range guidance suggests that an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern could develop in early February. Initially, there will be an EPO-/AO+/PNA- pattern, which will likely close January. The change in teleconnections will coincide with the emergence of an AAM- regime. That would imply that the end of January or the start of February could see warmer than normal readings develop.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Maxim said:

Think once we lose the -EPO the east coast torches. Though it may not be until mid-late Feb by the time that happens.

And then blocking may reappear as it often does late in seasons that featured blocking early. No guarantees, but it's not so simple. Heck, 95/96 was a Niña and had no problem being cold and snowy in February for many on the east coast.

[LakePaste25]

53 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I think his idea of "canonical La Nina" are winters like 2022-23, 2011-12, 1999-00, or 1998-99 which were straight blowtorches, but they weren't necessarily because of an overpowered SE ridge. 

A true canonical La Nina winter has cold anomalies centered across the Upper Midwest, Plains, and Canadian Prairies and neither of those winters above had that with the exception of 2022-23 in a few spots thanks to a really cold December. A true canonical La Nina winter may feature warm periods in the east but equal amounts of cold shots or a cold winter month or two, i.e., Dec-Jan 2009, Dec-mid Feb 2018, etc. 

Temperature wise, 2021-22 was the last true canonical La Nina winter. The warm anomalies in the south are primarily because of a near record warm December. That was likely driven by an overpowered SE ridge, +AMO, and climate change. 

 

I also feel the same way. Also, aren’t canonical Nina’s usually dry for Cali? People had snow up to their roof out there in 22-23. I view a canonical Nina as a GOA (not Aleutian) ridge. This is why I would rarely forecast a deep -PNA/SE ridge all winter long just because it’s a Nina. 

 

Also, I should mention that 22-23 would have had a cold January in the east, if not for a strong/super Nino-like pacific jet extension lasting until week 2 that extended all the way to the west coast and required several variables to line up for that to occur, and nobody could have reasonably predicted that to occur on a seasonal or subseasonal scale. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, George001 said:

A common theme in modoki la Nina’s is the storm track shifts north in Feb and Mar. Usually that’s not good for the east because it means rain. However, this year has been both colder and has a MUCH farther south storm track than a typical modoki Nina. So the cold shifting more west with the storm track shifting NW come Feb-Mar may not be such a bad thing snow wise. Also depends on what the MJO does. Yeah, If it goes into the null phases after 2-3 that would help us out a lot. Avoiding phases 4-6 is the key. Feb is a tough call, looks more stormy on the long range guidance but temps are a big question mark. It will likely be warmer than Jan, but there is a huge difference between normal or even slightly above normal and a +5 torch. That could easily be the difference between big snows and no snow.

Again...Modoki index really only matters if its a substantial event...NBD when weak.