MJO812 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Honestly...with 2" on the season here on the NH border in N Mass, I am ready to take a Stab at that pattern....it won't be any less snowy and if I get porked with snowfall again, at least it will be warmer. Only 2 inches ? Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, MJO812 said: Only 2 inches ? Jeez Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA. I really don't care if I get snow to rain. Just change this pattern please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Although persistent, the cold pattern that began the New Year has not been that impressive for the northeast. The cold temperature anomalies have been more impressive further west in the plains and in the deep south. Persistent cloudy conditions north of the turnpike has kept a lid on temperature departures, even resulting in the min temps being above normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 On 1/7/2025 at 7:55 AM, bluewave said: Back in October I was pointing out the potential PNA mismatch signal for December which worked out. But I also mentioned that other factors weren’t lining up like they did as recently as 2020 and 2017. As it turns out the Northern Stream of the Pacific was among the strongest we have ever seen with such a positive +PNA. So this lead to the warmer and less snowy outcome than most of the past +PNA La Niña Decembers. La Niña Decembers with strong +PNA patterns 2024…PNA…+1.70….NYC….avg temp…38.2°….snowfall…2.8” 2020…+1.58….39.2°….10.5” 2017….+0.89…35.0°…..7.7” 2005…+1.38….35.3…..9.7” 2000….+1.23…31.1°…..13.4” 1995…..+0.92…32.4°….11.5” 1985…..+1.39….34.2°….0.9” 1963……+1.77….31.2°….11.3” Did you specifically call for December to be the mismatch month? I remember the mismatch posts not really specifying a particular month...ie seasonal forecast. I ended up focusing on January, but obviously it ended up including December, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA. I’m absolutely convinced of RNA the end of this month/early February. MJO forcing will be moving into the IO with amplitude. Also, the SPV gains strength and coupling with the TPV looks imminent. That will result in a strong to very strong AO/NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: While I blew it on the snow this weekend that isn't going to happen, I was all over this late blooming La Niña....people bail don it left and right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: While I blew it on the snow this weekend that isn't going to happen, I was all over this late blooming La Niña....people bail don it left and right. I only bailed on it because the MEI increased in AS/SO (from -0.7 to -0.5). If that hadn't happened, I would have not bailed on the la nina, but there was evidence that the la nina was potentially coming to an end. Speaking of the MEI, it came in at -0.9 for ND, the lowest so far this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I only bailed on it because the MEI increased in AS/SO (from -0.7 to -0.5). If that hadn't happened, I would have not bailed on the la nina, but there was evidence that the la nina was potentially coming to an end. Speaking of the MEI, it came in at -0.9 for ND, the lowest so far this season. This La Nina was a low key tricky one...usually people assume a weak event will be easy, but I have found it can be the opposite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I think going forward, the main question is what type of SE ridge pattern we see in Feb. Do we see an amplified SE ridge torch like we saw in Feb 2018, or do we see a more muted, -EPO driven SE ridge with a gradient pattern such as Feb 2022? I am obviously rooting for the latter as it is better for snow chances here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 22 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: I think going forward, the main question is what type of SE ridge pattern we see in Feb. Do we see an amplified SE ridge torch like we saw in Feb 2018, or do we see a more muted, -EPO driven SE ridge with a gradient pattern such as Feb 2022? I am obviously rooting for the latter as it is better for snow chances here. The latter IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I only bailed on it because the MEI increased in AS/SO (from -0.7 to -0.5). If that hadn't happened, I would have not bailed on the la nina, but there was evidence that the la nina was potentially coming to an end. Speaking of the MEI, it came in at -0.9 for ND, the lowest so far this season. I went back in early November with a peak RONI of -1.2 to -1.4 and a peak MEI of between -1.0 and -1.2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -9 in some places would be quite possible). That would be similar to 2014 and a bit colder than 2018, 2011, 2010, and 2003 overall in the E US. It may turn out the coldest Jan since 1994! 1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~11 BN): 1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (mainly 6-10 BN) Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -8 in some places wouod be quite possible): 1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~9-10F BN): 1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (5-9F BN) Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): Keeps the hope alive for some meaningful snow. Could just be more cold, dry suppression up here in the Northeast but without the cold we wouldn't have much hope so I will take it. These nickle and dine coating to 1" event don't cut it for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 @donsutherland1 @bluewave Strengthening SPV to very strong levels with tropospheric/TPV coupling is imminent. The AO and NAO very likely go strongly positive 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 53 minutes ago, GaWx said: The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -9 in some places would be quite possible). That would be similar to 2014 and a bit colder than 2018, 2011, 2010, and 2003 overall in the E US. It may form out the coldest Jan since 1994! 1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~11 BN): 1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (mainly 6-10 BN) Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. ) 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. ) I noticed that. Will worry about that when the time comes, but a muted southeast ridge could be a good thing for those in the north, including snow starved new England. But that's so far in the future and there's a ton more cold coming, so I'll believe any big time warmup when I see it. We've been getting daily mood flakes and dustings that sublimate so the ground has remained mostly bare so its really frozen solid. Finally have some synoptic snow coming so took the Christmas decorations down outside and couldn't get a few of the stakes out of the ground lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. ) I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby Hey that's fine, but I was just responding to Ga's rundown of today's weeklies not to anyone or anything else. The weeklies have done very well with temps this winter. And as Michsnowfreak posted, it's hard to believe it'll get warm until it actually occurs. As such, I feel until they're wrong, just run with them. Otoh, a little above normal temps with normal or above precip in February around here would work for snow, so I'm OK with the pattern change the weeklies are showing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 If the trade winds forecasted continue to show west of the dateline being more anomalous than normal versus over 3 and 3.4 this will certainly keep pushing the 'Nina' waters further and further west. This will ultimately also allow for sinking air to start being more prevalent around the eastern portions of the Maritime Continent (around 5/6/7 of the MJO Phase) and a less concentrated region of lift over phase 4 region like we saw November into December. We would start to have a dual or split lifting region of 1/2/3 showing up and potentially avoiding the dreaded 4/5/6. This of course is still a few weeks out but we should start to approach close to phase 3 by the last week of January after that I am not so certain on a 4/5 swing as we go into February as many seem to be so keen on. I personally see us to have peaked with this Nina at this point unless we get some rogue constructive interference in the next 2 weeks showing up, which I have my doubts. I think what likely happens is the subsurface we currently see just maintains what we currently have and lets it slowly fade over time. These are just some thoughts popping about in my head for what could be the next 3-4weeks. On a side note this would certainly be a noteworthy situation if we somehow ended the season below average snowfall wise around here yet ended up with more snow than Boston... 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 This is impressive to say the least. Definitely did not expect to see this 500mb look as we approach the halfway mark through the winter season. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I think a torch in the SE is possible for February, but I don't see it in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast. In fact, I think the first 10-15 days of the month will be favorable for snow in these areas. The February monthly temp departure will be close to normal in these areas, and maybe below in some areas of northern Vermont, NH, and Maine. I think it turns warmer for these areas during the 2nd half of February, leading into the inevitable torch during March/first part of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did you specifically call for December to be the mismatch month? I remember the mismatch posts not really specifying a particular month...ie seasonal forecast. I ended up focusing on January, but obviously it ended up including December, too. Yeah, the mismatch analogs I listed were December based. But I was uncertain how the actual process would turn out since this La Niña was so much weaker than the past mismatch instances. So the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet was much stronger than the past mismatch Decembers leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This has been the theme since the 2018-2019 winter which has continued into early January so far. It could be the same warm background SST state in the Pacific which slowed the La Niña SST response also being related somehow to the faster Northern Stream than past mismatch La Niña patterns. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the mismatch analogs I listed were December based. But I was uncertain how the actual process would turn out since this La Niña was so much weaker than the past mismatch instances. So the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet was much stronger than the past mismatch Decembers leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This has been the theme since the 2018-2019 winter which has continued into early January so far. It could be the same warm background SST state in the Pacific which slowed the La Niña SST response also being related somehow to the faster Northern Stream than past mismatch La Niña patterns. Okay, I know there was some January (2022) and March mismatch periods that were referred to (2018), so I must have missed the post where you hilighted December as the mismatch month. Nice call on that....I thought it would be January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I think a torch in the SE is possible for February, but I don't see it in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast. In fact, I think the first 10-15 days of the month will be favorable for snow in these areas. The February monthly temp departure will be close to normal in these areas, and maybe below in some areas of northern Vermont, NH, and Maine. I think it turns warmer for these areas during the 2nd half of February, leading into the inevitable torch during March/first part of April. I agree with you on this.. Here are my February thoughts from November: February 2025 Outlook February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972 The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward. The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times. "SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We are in an official La Niña @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are in an official La Niña @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Thanks for this info. I had been waiting for the official announcement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are in an official La Niña @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 I remember DT in like late November-early December essentially guaranteeing that we wouldn't see La Niña and mocking the CFS. Nice to see some validation after all of the time I put into that over the summer and fall. Now if it would just snow, that would be cool, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember DT in like late November-early December essentially guaranteeing that we wouldn't see La Niña and mocking the CFS. Nice to see some validation after all of the time I put into that over the summer and fall. Now if it would just snow, that would be cool, too. The 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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