2024-2025 La Nina

[bncho]

If January manages to fail I’m going to sit in a corner and cry for 2 hours a day, 7 days a week. I don’t want another February 2024.

 

At least the models haven’t backed off—they’ve strengthened. Hoping for a January miracle, I wouldn’t mind another cold-ENSO blizzard.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Strongest cold signal yet with NYC H5 for 1/6-12 down from 541 dm to 539 dm, which is 11 dm BN! That’s now within the 5th shade of blue vs 4th yest and 3rd on prior days. I don’t know if you folks realize how hard that is to do 2.5 weeks out for a full 7 day period on a 100 member ensemble in a warming world!

 The 2m temps are now the coldest in terms of how widespread they are. They’re still at the 2nd level of BN but I fully expect to start seeing the 3rd level soon assuming the strong signal continues undiminished.

If this is right, then a January 2011 redux is almost certainly going to happen. However, I am very skeptical of any of this coming to fruition.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cold ENSO subsurface is making a comeback in the last few days!

If it sustains, I've found that it correlates with a -PNA January.  This I would say is like a "Weak Nina". 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/14/2024 at 4:58 PM, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

Very cool from a meteorological standpoint! We get to witness a 1/170 year event, this -PDO. Being aware of it as it happens gives us a good read on what the index is, and what it produces. Like I said, it's been hitting its matching pattern the last 4 Winter's. I don't really think this +pna can sustain, although some analog sets like warm Phoenix in the Summer/Fall did show that through January. February seems like an easier call on -pna.. 

[George001]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If this is right, then a January 2011 redux is almost certainly going to happen. However, I am very skeptical of any of this coming to fruition.

I would go as far as saying even verbatim Jan 2011 isn’t walking through the door. The airmass was a lot colder in Jan 2011, we had lows hugging the coast delivering blizzard conditions to NYC and Boston. Typically NYC and Boston both have ptype issues with that low track. A more unfavorable airmass doesn’t necessarily mean things can’t work anyways, but we won’t have the room for error we did in 2011 in regards to storm track.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cold ENSO subsurface is making a comeback in the last few days!

If it sustains, I've found that it correlates with a -PNA January.  This I would say is like a "Weak Nina". 

As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month

Of course you think that . Having rhe WPO negative will keep it cold longer. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month

Except trades take a break when westerlies take over for a few weeks, so that will...ready for this..."constructively interfere" with the Nina. How well the Niña recovers is unknown since the intensity and duration of the westerlies is still just a computer prog. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Except trades take a break when westerlies take over for a few weeks, so that will...ready for this..."constructively interfere" with the Nina. How well the Niña recovers is unknown since the intensity and duration of the westerlies is still just a computer prog. 

Westerlies in regions 1+2 and 3 are normal in CP Niña events. Those regions stay warmer than where the event is centered in 3.4

[LakePaste25]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Of course you think that . Having rhe WPO negative will keep it cold longer. 

You can still get an Aleutian ridge with a -WPO. That’s exactly what the weeklies show starting right after MLK weekend. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Westerlies in regions 1+2 and 3 are normal in CP Niña events. Those regions stay warmer than where the event is centered in 3.4

The Euro depicts westerlies across 1 thru 4 though. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The Euro depicts westerlies across 1 thru 4 though. 

I should add that if you go back to previous days forecasts, progged westerlies have strengthened and easterlies weaker.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202412190000&filter=no&parameter=zonal wind 850 hPa

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Westerlies in regions 1+2 and 3 are normal in CP Niña events. Those regions stay warmer than where the event is centered in 3.4

Yeah, this is turning into a late blooming La Niña due to how warm the Pacific started out. The WWBs being forecast are only in the EPAC. Trades continue near the Dateline making this more a CP La Niña. We actually set a new CP OLR record for any La Niña back in November.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2024-enso-update-party-time-excellent

In these graphs, higher numbers are more like La Niña). In fact, the OLR from November 2024 ranks higher than any previous La Niña!

 

[snowman19]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this is turning into a late blooming La Niña due to how warm the Pacific started out. The WWBs being forecast are only in the EPAC. Trades continue near the Dateline making this more a CP La Niña. We actually set a new CP OLR record for any La Niña back in November.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2024-enso-update-party-time-excellent

In these graphs, higher numbers are more like La Niña). In fact, the OLR from November 2024 ranks higher than any previous La Niña!

 

We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

My guess is that the La Niña background is making the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet faster than the models forecast back at the beginning of December. None of the models from three weeks ago had this big jet extension leading to the strong +EPO at the end of December. The other factor has been the +SOI spike in late November lead to the +PNA mismatch pattern for a La Niña background. So we get these ridges in the EPAC and WNA that keep getting weakened by the faster Pacific Jet than forecast.

[GaWx]

 The multiday averaged CFS ensemble runs have been getting colder in the E US for much of early to mid Jan with a stronger +PNA/-EPO. Most recent individual CFS ensemble runs have had 2-3 weeks straight of BN temp domination in the E US. Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS from yesterday at 0Z agree. Let’s see how this evolves. Will be interesting.

NG prices are at new 2024 highs.

Newest run for Jan 3-9 (last 3 days of ens runs averaged):

 

Run from one week ago for same period:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Looks like a toss-up between ENSO neutral and la nina conditions for 2025-26: 

[GaWx]

Latest bc MJO of two least inaccurate models are now very close with both into left side of circle early Jan. A good number of past instances of this sort of MJO during non-El Nino have been during cold in E US in Jan (see 7 cases below)

GEFS:

 

EPS:

 

Past instances of left inside circle with cold E US in Jan non-El Nino:

2022 2nd half Jan:

 

2000 late Jan:

 

1999 early Jan:

 

1996 1st half Jan:

 

1994 1st half Jan:

 

1982 late Jan:

 

1976 early Jan:

 

But this one failed to be cold:

2023 mid Jan was mild

 So, 7 were cold and only one wasn’t. But we may have the warm MC to contend with like for the 2023 case although the 2022 case was still cold. And we’ll have to see if the MJO really is going to verify left side inside circle/are these model progs accurate?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Very cool from a meteorological standpoint! We get to witness a 1/170 year event, this -PDO. Being aware of it as it happens gives us a good read on what the index is, and what it produces. Like I said, it's been hitting its matching pattern the last 4 Winter's. I don't really think this +pna can sustain, although some analog sets like warm Phoenix in the Summer/Fall did show that through January. February seems like an easier call on -pna.. 

What was the PNA in February 1986, February 2006, and February 2021?

[George001]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month

Adam, although we have seen additional cooling over the past couple of weeks, the La Niña will end up being fairly weak overall. The pattern has not really been very Nina like so far this December, and we are actually seeing guidance show an active STJ for early Jan. While I do agree that we will see a pattern shift as the Nina peaks (recent trends have opened the door for this to peak as a weak Nina, similar to 08-09), my early thoughts are we could see more of a stormy north/south gradient type pattern rather than a full on east torch especially if the STJ remains active. The seasonal guidance shows this with both the temp and precip distribution for Jan-Mar (though Jan is warm everywhere, likely due to the first couple of weeks before the transition from a strong nino like pattern to a Nina one). What are your thoughts? 

[GaWx]

12Z model consensus is overall colder late in the runs and is just plain cold! Folks reading many posts in this thread might not realize this.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z model consensus is overall colder late in the runs and is just plain cold! Folks reading many posts in this thread might not realize this.

Lol! Ain't that the truth.

[jm1220]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the La Niña background is making the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet faster than the models forecast back at the beginning of December. None of the models from three weeks ago had this big jet extension leading to the strong +EPO at the end of December. The other factor has been the +SOI spike in late November lead to the +PNA mismatch pattern for a La Niña background. So we get these ridges in the EPAC and WNA that keep getting weakened by the faster Pacific Jet than forecast.

Perma-Nina for 6 years now. The El Niño last winter just added a lot more subtropical juice to it. 

[jbenedet]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z model consensus is overall colder late in the runs and is just plain cold! Folks reading many posts in this thread might not realize this.

This isn't accurate. The H500 height anoms are misleading as Canada is very warm. The PNA ridge is too far west, allowing for MP air, vs CP, despite the longwave trough developing in the eastern half of the US. MP in January isn't going to translate to cold for the mid latitudes. I'd agree in march or april, however...

I will give you that the torch fades (with time) on latest guidance, but that's also with the highest uncertainty some 320 hours + out.

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This isn't accurate. The H500 height anoms are misleading as Canada is very warm. The PNA ridge is too far west, allowing for MP air, vs CP, despite the longwave trough developing in the eastern half of the US. MP in January isn't going to translate to cold for the mid latitudes. I'd agree in march or april, however...

I will give you that the torch fades (with time) on latest guidance, but that's also with the highest uncertainty some 320 hours + out.

 Thanks. I was basing that post on these 3 end of run 2m temp anomalies, which are all significantly colder than prior runs.

 

 

 

 

NG is paying attention and is up another 4% today.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Perma-Nina for 6 years now. The El Niño last winter just added a lot more subtropical juice to it. 

What's a perma-nina?

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Perma-Nina for 6 years now. The El Niño last winter just added a lot more subtropical juice to it. 

Almost looks like the super El Niño warmth being forecast for North America last week of December is a lingering effect from last winter but with a faster Northern Stream instead of the STJ due to the competing La Niña influences.
 

 

[jm1220]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What's a perma-nina?

We’ve essentially had a Nina background state in the Pacific since late 2018 because of the very warm W Pacific. Even the strong official El Niño last winter couldn’t really dislodge it. It goes to show that sometimes there’s too much attention to how warm/cold the E Pacific gets when the W Pacific is the other half of the equation. The warm W Pacific has kept the convection in the MC for the most part since late 2018, MJO in unfavorable phases and supercharged the Pacific jet. 

[EasternLI]

 

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies once again have a strong signal for cold 1/6-12, similar to yesterday. For the 1st time, there’s a tiny bit of the 3rd shade of cold near the OB of NC. If the strong signal persists, future runs should start showing more of this 3rd shade and possibly some of the 4th shade later on. This is getting pretty close to about as strong a signal in this warmer age one will see for a full week of cold 2.5 weeks out on a 100 member ensemble:

 

H5 has an even slightly stronger BN signal with NYC now down even further to a very low 538 dm, which is a whopping 12 dm below the normal of 550! This 538 compares to these the last 8 days starting with yesterday: 539, 541, 543, 543, 545, 547, 547, and 548. So, as we’re getting closer, the signal is getting clearer/intensifying.

 This is an extremely strong signal for 2.5 weeks out keeping in mind it is the mean of a 100 member ensemble in a warming world: