2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is a British Columbia weather weenie tweeting the CFS Control. if this was JB doing the same thing you'd lose it

Ok

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Which might mean more of the same as Dec with cold/dry after cutters into the lakes. Never like seeing a trough in the sw as it has trended stronger over time every winter 

 

Makes sense with the mjo convection in different phases to start January. Going to need a clean pass in phase 8 to get anything on the east coast 

Yeah, no clean pass showing up going into January with the forcing  shifting from the EPAC back to the IO and MC a few days later.

 

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, no clean pass showing up going into January with the forcing  shifting from the EPAC back to the IO and MC a few days later.

 

January will be lots of back and forth with very little snow along the east coast if this is true 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

January will be lots of back and forth with very little snow along the east coast if this is true 

Way different opinion than what others think in early to mid January . Hopefully it works out for us.

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

January will be lots of back and forth with very little snow along the east coast if this is true 

 I’d like to at least get the one cold week consistently suggested by the Euro Weeklies (EW) (Jan 6-12) for a good number of runs. And perhaps 7 or so days averaging modestly BN during ~7 days surrounding that week also sometimes suggested by the EW and extended GEFS. As long as the other 2.5 weeks aren’t too torchy, I’d be content.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 I’d like to at least get the one cold week consistently suggested by the Euro Weeklies (EW) (Jan 6-12) for a good number of runs. And perhaps one other modestly BN week also sometimes suggested by the EW and extended GEFS. As long as the other 2.5 weeks aren’t torchy, I’d be content.

The month won’t be very torchy imo. But there is a chance if the southeast ridge goes crazy at the end of the month 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The month won’t be very torchy imo. But there is a chance if the southeast ridge goes crazy at the end of the month 

But if we could get most of 1/6-17 dominated by BN, there’d still be a good chance for near normal overall even if the SE ridge were strong at the end. If this were to occur after a modestly BN Dec. I’d be quite content as I never had expected Dec-Jan to average near or slightly BN.

[Allsnow]

Just now, GaWx said:

But if we could get most of 1/6-17 dominated by BN, there’d still be a good chance for near normal overall even if the SE ridge were strong at the end.

It’s the coldest time of the year so it would need to be an impressive sustainable cold outbreak. The other issue will be how torched Canada will be the next two weeks 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But if we could get most of 1/6-17 dominated by BN, there’d still be a good chance for near normal overall even if the SE ridge were strong at the end. If this were to occur after a modestly BN Dec. I’d be quite content as I never had expected Dec-Jan to average near or slightly BN.

The best part is, there are decent arguments on both sides. So we just sit back and hope for the best. I think the La Nada conditions for so long with only recent Niña conditions has been a real screwball to long range modeling in part due to the lag in atmospheric response to the Niña. The La Nada has let a background Niño hold on, now it's the Niña fighting against it.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s the coldest time of the year so it would need to be an impressive sustainable cold outbreak. The other issue will be how torched Canada will be the next two weeks 

 The extended GEFS have on a good number of runs been suggesting 4-5 Canadian highs plunging down during ~1/3-18 thanks to a dominating W ridge/E trough. The latest 100 member Euro Weeklies mean for Jan 6-12 had a 9 dm BN H5 height at NYC (541 dm vs normal of 550 dm). IF that were to be anywhere close to verifying, that would likely allow for quite a cold week…again IF.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s the coldest time of the year so it would need to be an impressive sustainable cold outbreak. The other issue will be how torched Canada will be the next two weeks 

End of ensembles and extended products all suggest we'll be cold enough for snow with the correctly placed pattern.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

End of ensembles and extended products all suggest we'll be cold enough for snow with the correctly placed pattern.

Extended products smooth things out. 

[GaWx]

Latest MJO forecasts from the two best bc: closer together than yesterday as GEFS much closer to circle

GEFS bc:

 

EPS bc: colder potential but only if assuming MC convection doesn’t dominate as @bluewaveand my Maxar contact both warn:

[leo2000]

Just keep the MJO in the circle as all its wants to do is go into phase 6. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Extended products smooth things out. 

They can't help but be, but the general idea still supports cold enough for snow IF correct, of course.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It’s the coldest time of the year so it would need to be an impressive sustainable cold outbreak. The other issue will be how torched Canada will be the next two weeks 

The delayed freeze up on Hudson Bay is probably contributing to the record warmth being forecast.
 

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/sluggish-freeze-warming-north

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is a British Columbia weather weenie tweeting the CFS Control. if this was JB doing the same thing you'd lose it

And its already changed to cold on todays run. Changes every 6 hours.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The extended GEFS have on a good number of runs been suggesting 4-5 Canadian highs plunging down during ~1/3-18 thanks to a dominating W ridge/E trough. The latest 100 member Euro Weeklies mean for Jan 6-12 had a 9 dm BN H5 height at NYC (541 dm vs normal of 550 dm). IF that were to be anywhere close to verifying, that would likely allow for quite a cold week…again IF.

Weeklies continue the cold look starting Jan 6.

[Snowstorms]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also it wouldn't be shocking if the later weeks of the Euro Weeklies were just reverting to -ENSO climo. frankly, we haven't seen much of a canonical Nina pattern at all and aren't going to for the next two weeks at least. i don't see how one can resign to typical -ENSO climo into late Jan. sure, it'll likely get a bit warmer but a persistent SE ridge is not a given

they did the same exact thing last year reverting to +ENSO climo with an Aleutian low and -NAO that never really happened

I don't mind a -ENSO pattern if its the primary driver of the pattern and if the SE ridge isn't over amplified. But it's been annoying over the last couple of years. Just endless warmth. Could the +AMO be amplifying it? It has yet to shift to -ve after 30 years now. 

I prefer a poleward Aleutian ridge than an overpowered Aleutian low that floods most of NA with warmth.  A -ENSO offers more opportunities for cold and snow threats thanks to an active clipper pattern. But I understand for people further south esp the Mid-Atlantic, they may feel strongly against a -ENSO pattern. 

[George001]

I’m not a fan of the early Jan look for New England. The blocking is more south based on guidance like recent winters rather than say 2010-2011. 

[Snowstorms]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not a fan of the early Jan look for New England. The blocking is more south based on guidance like recent winters rather than say 2010-2011. 

Yes give me those pre 2015 ENSO winters. Except 21-22, its just been "recycled" garbage cold and snow patterns. Since Jan 2019, we've legit only had 2 actual winter months that felt like winter (Feb 2021, Jan 2022). You can add 2.5 more months to that going back to 2015. 

[LakePaste25]

The change is still well over 300 hours away. It is too far out to really discern what the trough axis will be and where the frozen precip. will be most favored.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weeklies continue the cold look starting Jan 6.

Do they ever. Youzah!

 

[mitchnick]

Gotta believe this is at least in part the reason for the Niño look on the weeklies.

Compared to yesterday's run, more westerlies and less trades.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gotta believe this is at least in part the reason for the Niño look on the weeklies.

Compared to yesterday's run, more westerlies and less trades.

Which model is this? That's a HUGE change from the previous runs

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Which model is this? That's a HUGE change from the previous runs

Euro Weeklies.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202412190000&filter=no&parameter=zonal wind 850 hPa

[mitchnick]

Here's a link to daily updates Euro weeklies if you don't have it.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's a link to daily updates Euro weeklies if you don't have it.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

Ok i’d like this trend to continue for a few more days to a week before buying into this

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Which model is this? That's a HUGE change from the previous runs

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies:

 

Today’s Euro Weeklies:

 What does this change from yesterday’s run mean?

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weeklies continue the cold look starting Jan 6.

Strongest cold signal yet with NYC H5 for 1/6-12 down from 541 dm to 539 dm, which is 11 dm BN! That’s now within the 5th shade of blue vs 4th yest and 3rd on prior days. I don’t know if you folks realize how hard that is to do 2.5 weeks out for a full 7 day period on a 100 member ensemble in a warming world!

 The 2m temps are now the coldest in terms of how widespread they are. They’re still at the 2nd level of BN but I fully expect to start seeing the 3rd level soon assuming the strong signal continues undiminished.