2024-2025 La Nina

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think it’s mostly a result of the faster Pacific Northern Stream Jet than forecast which is too NS dominant. The poor wave spacing is a natural result of this process. Bad luck is a one time occurrence. These storm track issues have been occurring since 18-19 and are part of the recent multiyear pattern. One common storm track in recent years is the Great Lakes cutter. We can look at the long range on the 500mb charts and see there is a trough in the East forecast and many get excited. But once we get closer to forecast time it turns out the trough and cold arrives after the cutter. So we get 50s and rain followed by colder weather. Then the 2nd type track in this regime is the coastal hugger which also an issue for P-Types along the coast. Then the 3rd type of track we have been seeing is the northern stream low suppressing the southern stream so we get a little too warm near the coast or the bulk of the moisture with the southern stream goes south. 

Right-bad luck is a one or two time occurrence but it happening constantly it seems like indicates a larger issue. The fast Pacific jet doesn’t give time or space for any meaningful storm to develop offshore and take a good track. There’s always some turd in the punchbowl to ruin it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think it’s mostly a result of the faster Pacific Northern Stream Jet than forecast which is too NS dominant. The poor wave spacing is a natural result of this process. Bad luck is a one time occurrence. These storm track issues have been occurring since 18-19 and are part of the recent multiyear pattern. One common storm track in recent years is the Great Lakes cutter. We can look at the long range on the 500mb charts and see there is a trough in the East forecast and many get excited. But once we get closer to forecast time it turns out the trough and cold arrives after the cutter. So we get 50s and rain followed by colder weather. Then the 2nd type track in this regime is the coastal hugger which also an issue for P-Types along the coast. Then the 3rd type of track we have been seeing is the northern stream low suppressing the southern stream so we get a little too warm near the coast or the bulk of the moisture with the southern stream goes south. 

I knew you were going to say this....its both. I have had some very large storms over the past several years. I agree with you that this is an underlying issue that makes it more difficult...like I said, its not a KU cookbook pattern. However, things can and have still come together. I have had 4 snowfalls of over a foot since 2018. This weekend still could have worked out, but it isn't....that is some bad luck. Were odds worse because of the active jet? Sure.

Its like the odds of a cold winter given CC....it can still happen, but the odds are stacked against it. Well....in this multiyear pattern, large snowfalls happen in this area, but odds are more stacked against it. Sometimes we catch a break, but here we didn't.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Right-bad luck is a one or two time occurrence but it happening constantly it seems like indicates a larger issue. The fast Pacific jet doesn’t give time or space for any meaningful storm to develop offshore and take a good track. There’s always some turd in the punchbowl to ruin it. 

Its both....common issue I have seen on this board is a struggle to engage nuanced thinking.  Very "all of nothing" type of mindsets....

[40/70 Benchmark]

There are some patterns in which it is physcially impossible to see a major snowfall across interior SNE...this weekend is not one of them.

Period.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew you were going to say this....its both. I have had some very large storms over the past several years. I agree with you that this is an underlying issue that makes it more difficult...like I said, its not a KU cookbook pattern. However, things can and have still come together. I have had 4 snowfalls of over a foot since 2018. This weekend still could have worked out, but it isn't....that is some bad luck. Were odds worse because of the active jet? Sure.

Its like the odds of a cold winter given CC....it can still happen, but the odds are stacked against it. Well....in this multiyear pattern, large snowfalls happen in this area, but odds are more stacked against it. Sometimes we catch a break, but here we didn't.

PHL's last snowfall of over a foot was Jan. 22-23, 2016. In fact, we can't seem to get past 8 in. since then. Places west got foot plus totals on Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2021, while places east got foot plus totals on Jan. 28-29, 2022. Talk about bad luck.

[bluewave]

More competition between La Niña and El Niño influences. Coldest Nino 3.4 dailies of the year so far. Plus another EPAC WWB last week of December. So we can understand why the models really struggle beyond 15 days. The thing to watch will be if that WPAC area of westerlies drifts eastward later in the winter and spring. That’s the type of thing which could initiate an oceanic kelvin wave leading to El Niño. If that doesn’t happen then the La Niña cooling next winter could be even stronger than we are seeing now. So an interesting period coming up for clues what the next few years may look like.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

PHL's last snowfall of over a foot was Jan. 22-23, 2016. In fact, we can't seem to get past 8 in. since then. Places west got foot plus totals on Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2021, while places east got foot plus totals on Jan. 28-29, 2022. Talk about bad luck.

Clearly the issues that Chris has correctly identified with the Pacific are more prohibitive to large snowfalls further south....no question.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More competition between La Niña and El Niño influences. Coldest Nino 3.4 dailies of the year so far. Plus another EPAC WWB last week of December. So we can understand why the models really struggle beyond 15 days.

It will be interesting to see if the wwb verifies along with weakening trades around the first of Jan. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

While I got the idea of a mismatch period this season right, it clearly set in earlier than I had suspected, more in line with 2020....see how January goes, but it may end up that I had the right idea, but botched the timing of things. I never expected a cold month of January, but I do expect a nice Pacific, so if we get an RNA next month, it will be a sign that my timing is def. off.

[LakePaste25]

Part of this is due to a combination of bad luck and lack of prolonged cold. If we get a cold shot that only lasts 1 week, one needs to get lucky on the coast. If we get cold that lasts 3-4 weeks, the coast is more likely to score simply by probability laws. Take January 2022, for example. The 1 week cold shots work better here near the lakes because we don’t need the atlantic or the gulf, we just need a northern stream trough over warm lake waters. 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It will be interesting to see if the wwb verifies along with weakening trades around the first of Jan. 

MJO forecasts seemingly stalled the wave yesterday, but progression on most modeling is back to moving the wave into 7 and maybe 8. 

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

But looking back at some of the MJO forecasts I downloaded in November, we should have been in Phase 7 by today! Lol

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

MJO forecasts seemingly stalled the wave yesterday, but progression on most modeling is back to moving the wave into 7 and maybe 8. 

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

But looking back at some of the MJO forecasts I downloaded in November, we should have been in Phase 7 by today! Lol

Yeah those warm ssts in the MC seems to have stalled the MJO or held it back, but I think we eventually get to 7. Not sure if we get into 8 at amplitude though

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Part of this is due to a combination of bad luck and lack of prolonged cold. If we get a cold shot that only lasts 1 week, one needs to get lucky on the coast. If we get cold that lasts 3-4 weeks, the coast is more likely to score simply by probability laws. Take January 2022, for example. The 1 week cold shots work better here near the lakes because we don’t need the atlantic or the gulf, we just need a northern stream trough over warm lake waters. 

Like I said, its both....unless its a flawless pattern that matches a poster on Paul Kocin's bedroom wall, one can always point out a reason(s) why a storm did not materialize. While the Pacific jet is undoubtedly a reason why this weekend won't work out, its wasn't completely prohibitive, either....that is the luck that I referred to. I didn't mean to imply that it was a textbook set up and it took awful luck to miss out on a blizzard.

[beavis1729]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What even is a SDD? Isn't it something you made up? I remember its something like 2"+ snowcover and a high below 20 or something. You literally once called 2013-14 a "decent" winter lmao. As for stats, they have been posted over and over on our Lakes forum, so you should be familiar with them. You also should be aware that Chicago winters haven't changed the way east coast winters have. You use Chicago's most severe winters on record as a baseline. I mean, I love snow probably as much as you, but as everyone in the lakes forum knows, you'll never be satisfied with your winters. 

You don't want to know the results for Chicago's snow on the ground stats. You know why? Because the 2000s and 2010s had better snowcover than EVERY decade since the 1920s with the exception of the 1970s.

SDDs are a seasonal metric - "snow depth days".

You add each day's snow depth (in inches) for the whole season. It's a great way to compare the severity of winter seasons...as it combines temperature, snowfall, and snow cover/retention all in one metric. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Your response is logical, and of course appreciated. I know you’re coming from a good place.
 

My point is that, when you love the beauty of winter and everything that goes along with it, it’s hard to deal with the trend of recent seasons. It’s like being a sports fan…there’s a lot of tradition, family, emotion, and deeper meaning to it all. It’s more than just the game itself. That’s how I feel about winter.
 

Everyone else can have the other 9 months each year…but let winter be winter. 

At least your part of the country was able to set a new all-time record coldest temperature as recently as 18-19 with one of your snowiest winters. But it was probably shorter than you would have liked due to the much warmer start to the month so the month overall was just  -3.7 .Dropping to -31° with 16” on the ground is an impressive feat.

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	788	333	-	-	1449	0	2.27	24.9	-
Average	25.4	10.7	18.1	-3.7	-	-	-	-	5.9
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-	1339	0	1.60	10.9
2019-01-01	32	23	27.5	4.2	37	0	T	T	0
2019-01-02	28	22	25.0	1.9	40	0	T	T	0
2019-01-03	39	20	29.5	6.5	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-04	46	26	36.0	13.2	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-05	50	26	38.0	15.3	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-06	40	26	33.0	10.5	32	0	T	0.0	0
2019-01-07	51	37	44.0	21.6	21	0	0.53	0.0	0
2019-01-08	44	21	32.5	10.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-09	23	16	19.5	-2.6	45	0	T	T	0
2019-01-10	27	14	20.5	-1.5	44	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-11	29	17	23.0	1.2	42	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-12	31	29	30.0	8.3	35	0	0.28	3.8	0
2019-01-13	32	26	29.0	7.4	36	0	0.01	0.2	4
2019-01-14	26	23	24.5	3.0	40	0	0.00	0.0	4
2019-01-15	33	24	28.5	7.0	36	0	T	T	4
2019-01-16	34	26	30.0	8.6	35	0	T	0.0	3
2019-01-17	33	27	30.0	8.7	35	0	T	T	3
2019-01-18	30	23	26.5	5.2	38	0	0.17	2.3	2
2019-01-19	24	6	15.0	-6.2	50	0	0.13	4.0	8
2019-01-20	10	-2	4.0	-17.2	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-21	14	-7	3.5	-17.7	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-22	31	13	22.0	0.8	43	0	0.24	1.5	7
2019-01-23	29	9	19.0	-2.2	46	0	0.23	4.2	11
2019-01-24	22	-2	10.0	-11.2	55	0	T	0.2	13
2019-01-25	1	-11	-5.0	-26.3	70	0	0.05	0.6	12
2019-01-26	5	-21	-8.0	-29.3	73	0	0.07	1.5	14
2019-01-27	8	-15	-3.5	-24.9	68	0	0.10	1.3	14
2019-01-28	21	9	15.0	-6.5	50	0	0.38	4.0	17
2019-01-29	10	-16	-3.0	-24.6	68	0	T	0.2	17
2019-01-30	-13	-25	-19.0	-40.7	84	0	0.00	0.0	17
2019-01-31	-2	-31	-16.5	-38.3	81	0	0.08	1.1	16

[beavis1729]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least your part of the country was able to set a new all-time record coldest temperature as recently as 18-19 with one of your snowiest winters. But it was probably shorter than you would have liked due to the much warmer start to the month.  Dropping to -31° with 16” on the ground is an impressive feat.

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	788	333	-	-	1449	0	2.27	24.9	-
Average	25.4	10.7	18.1	-3.7	-	-	-	-	5.9
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-	1339	0	1.60	10.9
2019-01-01	32	23	27.5	4.2	37	0	T	T	0
2019-01-02	28	22	25.0	1.9	40	0	T	T	0
2019-01-03	39	20	29.5	6.5	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-04	46	26	36.0	13.2	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-05	50	26	38.0	15.3	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-06	40	26	33.0	10.5	32	0	T	0.0	0
2019-01-07	51	37	44.0	21.6	21	0	0.53	0.0	0
2019-01-08	44	21	32.5	10.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-09	23	16	19.5	-2.6	45	0	T	T	0
2019-01-10	27	14	20.5	-1.5	44	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-11	29	17	23.0	1.2	42	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-12	31	29	30.0	8.3	35	0	0.28	3.8	0
2019-01-13	32	26	29.0	7.4	36	0	0.01	0.2	4
2019-01-14	26	23	24.5	3.0	40	0	0.00	0.0	4
2019-01-15	33	24	28.5	7.0	36	0	T	T	4
2019-01-16	34	26	30.0	8.6	35	0	T	0.0	3
2019-01-17	33	27	30.0	8.7	35	0	T	T	3
2019-01-18	30	23	26.5	5.2	38	0	0.17	2.3	2
2019-01-19	24	6	15.0	-6.2	50	0	0.13	4.0	8
2019-01-20	10	-2	4.0	-17.2	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-21	14	-7	3.5	-17.7	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-22	31	13	22.0	0.8	43	0	0.24	1.5	7
2019-01-23	29	9	19.0	-2.2	46	0	0.23	4.2	11
2019-01-24	22	-2	10.0	-11.2	55	0	T	0.2	13
2019-01-25	1	-11	-5.0	-26.3	70	0	0.05	0.6	12
2019-01-26	5	-21	-8.0	-29.3	73	0	0.07	1.5	14
2019-01-27	8	-15	-3.5	-24.9	68	0	0.10	1.3	14
2019-01-28	21	9	15.0	-6.5	50	0	0.38	4.0	17
2019-01-29	10	-16	-3.0	-24.6	68	0	T	0.2	17
2019-01-30	-13	-25	-19.0	-40.7	84	0	0.00	0.0	17
2019-01-31	-2	-31	-16.5	-38.3	81	0	0.08	1.1	16

Right, and that was a great end of January...but then it was in the 40s two days after this with rain...and then winter essentially ended after that. And Dec 2018 was bad too. Everyone likes to point out wintry periods...but winter is 13 weeks, not 1-2 weeks. A good portion of the snowfall that winter was in Nov and Apr, which skewed the numbers since the snow wasn't in DJF and therefore didn't have any staying power.  DJF only saw 28.6"...not horrible, but not great. And Dec only had 1.4", which is when you need to build the base for winter.

That's why it's frustrating - like we work so hard to finally get a good wintry period in late January...then it lasts for 7-10 days...then it all blows up in 2 days. No one is expecting it to remain below zero of course, but the thaws should be 25-35F, not 40s with rain.

Another annoying thing about that period - ORD's UHI only allowed for a min of -23F during that cold snap.  The air mass was definitely there to challenge the all-time coldest -27F on 1/20/1985, which makes me think it will never be broken. ORD performs "best" on advective cold, which was the case on 1/30/2019...but then 1/31/2019 was more radiational cold.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Part of this is due to a combination of bad luck and lack of prolonged cold. If we get a cold shot that only lasts 1 week, one needs to get lucky on the coast. If we get cold that lasts 3-4 weeks, the coast is more likely to score simply by probability laws. Take January 2022, for example. The 1 week cold shots work better here near the lakes because we don’t need the atlantic or the gulf, we just need a northern stream trough over warm lake waters. 

Where I live it can snow with short lived cold/cold enough snaps like in early Feb 2024 when there was a 6-8” event here. But we usually need a somewhat active southern stream which we definitely had last winter which was aided by El Niño and gave us record winter precipitation. Northern stream dominant winters spawn Miller B events that favor New England, once in a while down here if they can develop soon enough. Often they favor cutters or SWFEs. Fast northern stream dominant winters are kiss of death for Philly on south. It’s why La Nina is a great setup for the places that have had good/great winters since the Pacific regime changed 6 years ago. Even when not Nina officially the pattern’s acted very much like it because of the boiling W Pacific, and even the strong official Nino last winter couldn’t shake the La Niña influences. La Niña/El Nino are as much about the W as E Pacific. 

[GaWx]

 Pop wted US HDDs per last 4 GEFS: absolute blowtorch most days through Dec 31st with only ~13/day Dec 27-9, which amazingly is a mere ~50% of normal to barely above that! The 13 is the normal for Nov 13th, a full 1.5 months earlier! So, if this prog is correct, we’ll be only at mid Nov normals for a few days late in Dec just before the expected end of month cooldown! I bet that is at least near a record low for pop wted US HDD then:

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Right, and that was a great end of January...but then it was in the 40s two days after this with rain...and then winter essentially ended after that. And Dec 2018 was bad too. Everyone likes to point out wintry periods...but winter is 13 weeks, not 1-2 weeks. A good portion of the snowfall that winter was in Nov and Apr, which skewed the numbers since the snow wasn't in DJF and therefore didn't have any staying power.  DJF only saw 28.6"...not horrible, but not great. And Dec only had 1.4", which is when you need to build the base for winter.

That's why it's frustrating - like we work so hard to finally get a good wintry period in late January...then it lasts for 7-10 days...then it all blows up in 2 days. No one is expecting it to remain below zero of course, but the thaws should be 25-35F, not 40s with rain.

Another annoying thing about that period - ORD's UHI only allowed for a min of -23F during that cold snap.  The air mass was definitely there to challenge the all-time coldest -27F on 1/20/1985, which makes me think it will never be broken. ORD performs "best" on advective cold, which was the case on 1/30/2019...but then 1/31/2019 was more radiational cold.

I hear what you are saying. The footprint on these Arctic outbreaks when Rockford dropped to -25° and colder has been shrinking since the 1980s. While you can still reach those absolute coldest temperatures, the size and duration of the Arctic outbreaks has greatly declined. You can see how much more extensive the cold was during Januaries before this most recent 2019 event. But being near the center of the continent is a plus for you since the cold has been having difficulty expanding to the East Coast when you get record cold vs the past.

Januaries with Rockford -25° and colder days since the 1980s

 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

MJO forecasts seemingly stalled the wave yesterday, but progression on most modeling is back to moving the wave into 7 and maybe 8. 

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

But looking back at some of the MJO forecasts I downloaded in November, we should have been in Phase 7 by today! Lol

Thanks for saying this.  As I said, they constantly get posted but never checked on.  I thought that was the case too going back to plots that were posted weeks ago.

[GaWx]

Today’s GEFS MJO forecast doesn’t back it up to the border of phase 7 and 6 like yesterday, but it does at least temporarily stall it in 7 late instead of then heading to 8:

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

???? The Chicago airport winter temperature trend is similar to east coast airports (and Detroit). Per the trendline Chicago winters are 5-6F warmer than 60 years ago. 

Snowfall is more variable locally, but I don't see big differences between Chicago and the east coas teither: 2000+2010s were good, and recent 5-9 years bad. Like many colder east coast cities a snow downtrend hasn't clearly emerged in Chicago despite the warmer winters. That is as expected due to greater snow variability and competing temperature and moisture effects.

 

 

I cant believe it needs to be said every single time its discussed. I know some like to start a dataset in 1960 or 1970 when winters turned SHARPLY colder than the previous several decades. But climate data did not start in 1960 or 1970. For some wild reason, Im not a fan of holding the coldest winters in the entire period of record as the baseline for what is "normal". I like to look at local climate trends, what has changed, and what hasnt. Chicagos winters have certainly warmed since the 1960s...but in the 1960s and 1970s they noticably COOLED from previous decades.

PERIOD OF RECORD REGRESSION LINE DATA:

Detroit snow 1874-2024: 40.6” to 41.3” = +0.7” over 151 years
Chicago snow 1885-2024: 32.5” to 41.0” = +7.5” over 140 years
New York City snow 1900-2024: 32.1” to 24.4” = -7.7” over 156 years

Detroit DJF temps 1874-2024: 25.9F to 28.2F = +2.1F over 151 years
Chicago DJF temps 1873-2024: 26.7F to 27.0F = +0.3F over 152 years
New York City DJF temps 1869-2024: 31.0F to 36.6F = +5.6F over 156 years
 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

SDDs are a seasonal metric - "snow depth days".

You add each day's snow depth (in inches) for the whole season. It's a great way to compare the severity of winter seasons...as it combines temperature, snowfall, and snow cover/retention all in one metric. 

So add all the days of snow depth together for a final number? This is an interesting idea. I think I may play around with my local data some. But unlike temps, precip, snowfall, and number of days with snowcover, theres no online way to calculate it other than manually.

Although I can tell you off the bat, the winner in the entire period of record - and it wont even be CLOSE - is 2013-14. I am guessing 1977-78 is #2. This may be a fun post-christmas project for me. Ill let you know when I get it done for Detroit, may do it for Chicago too.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Pop wted US HDDs per last 4 GEFS: absolute blowtorch most days through Dec 31st with only ~13/day Dec 27-9, which amazingly is a mere ~50% of normal to barely above that! The 13 is the normal for Nov 13th, a full 1.5 months earlier! So, if this prog is correct, we’ll be only at mid Nov normals for a few days late in Dec just before the expected end of month cooldown! I bet that is at least near a record low for pop wted US HDD then:

Per Pivotal Geps, the warmup in the MA & SE is not that much compared to Gefs and Eps, with the largest AN anomalies along the US border. Possible the Canadians sold the Wall Street folks a subscription? Lol

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024121700&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

P.s. I  have a Pivotal subscription, but I  think the Geps are available on the free site if you don't. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Per Pivotal Geps, the warmup in the MA & SE is not that much compared to Gefs and Eps, with the largest AN anomalies along the US border. Possible the Canadians sold the Wall Street folks a subscription? Lol

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024121700&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

P.s. I  have a Pivotal subscription, but I  think the Geps are available on the free site if you don't. 

Thanks, Mitch. Keep in mind that the GEPS tends to show as the coldest of the 3 because it has the largest cold bias overall. Also, the warmth has been progged on model consensus to be stronger to our west overall. The middle of the US is progged to boil.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Right, and that was a great end of January...but then it was in the 40s two days after this with rain...and then winter essentially ended after that. And Dec 2018 was bad too. Everyone likes to point out wintry periods...but winter is 13 weeks, not 1-2 weeks. A good portion of the snowfall that winter was in Nov and Apr, which skewed the numbers since the snow wasn't in DJF and therefore didn't have any staying power.  DJF only saw 28.6"...not horrible, but not great. And Dec only had 1.4", which is when you need to build the base for winter.

That's why it's frustrating - like we work so hard to finally get a good wintry period in late January...then it lasts for 7-10 days...then it all blows up in 2 days. No one is expecting it to remain below zero of course, but the thaws should be 25-35F, not 40s with rain.

Another annoying thing about that period - ORD's UHI only allowed for a min of -23F during that cold snap.  The air mass was definitely there to challenge the all-time coldest -27F on 1/20/1985, which makes me think it will never be broken. ORD performs "best" on advective cold, which was the case on 1/30/2019...but then 1/31/2019 was more radiational cold.

One of the reasons the NWS moved the "official" site around in the past is to find an area representative of the region. When UHI or concrete or something else becomes too much of an issue, they move it. Remember, in the 1800s the roads were mostly dirt and there was a lot less UHI influence around. The problem we face now is that many bustling airports are so full of concrete that theres nothing they can do about the UHI influence. Of course the ASOS/Weather station is located in a grassy area, but theres nothing that can be done due to the influence of so many nearby runways. I see this at DTW all the time. DTW airport is in a suburb and OUTSIDE of the airport the area radiates very well. But its much warmer on radiational nights at the official site. On Feb 20, 2015, I drove by at 7am on the way to work. I literally passed JUST south of the airport (as in, probably less than a mile from airport property) and my car (which usually reads warm) read -22F. The official low was -13F. It just is what it is.

[GaWx]

 My Maxar contact just emailed me this chart, which shows that the last few runs of GEFS are predicting US pop wted HDD to be near or at record lows today as well as on Dec 26-7 (records go back to 1950):
 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its both....common issue I have seen on this board is a struggle to engage nuanced thinking.  Very "all of nothing" type of mindsets....

I agree. Good patterns don't always produce and bad ones sometimes do. The much maligned winter of 2022-23 sucked, but there were multiple good, dynamic winter storms. We had 3 storms (2 snow, 1 ice) that had multiple rounds of thunder & lightning. And a few more that produced courier and ives scenes due to the wet snow. I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge that. But as a fan of sustained winter, it's a winter I'd soon forget. Now to start 2024-25, we've had plenty of cold but have been stuck in a dry pattern with nothing but lake effect snow. Things aren't always as cut and dried as "what are the temps like?".

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. Good patterns don't always produce and bad ones sometimes do. The much maligned winter of 2022-23 sucked, but there were multiple good, dynamic winter storms. We had 3 storms (2 snow, 1 ice) that had multiple rounds of thunder & lightning. And a few more that produced courier and ives scenes due to the wet snow. I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge that. But as a fan of sustained winter, it's a winter I'd soon forget. Now to start 2024-25, we've had plenty of cold but have been stuck in a dry pattern with nothing but lake effect snow. Things aren't always as cut and dried as "what are the temps like?".

Yea, we are essentially saying the same thing, but Chris and I just have slightly different perspectives....no biggie. Not arguing his basic point.

[GaWx]

12Z EPS and GEPS, unlike the 12Z GEFS, have a very pretty +PNA at the end.