2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Good valid points. My guess is the Trough will be centered East of the typical Nina . As the Aleutian Ridge should average East of the usual Nina Position. I've thought this since November when the WPAC and NPAC SST State changed a good bit. Also, Webb's research lends to that as well. 

      So, when you average out the Seasonals you pretty much get that. The Plains/ Mississippi Valley mean position is very viable imo. So, my Outlook is a back and forth type Winter in the East with near average Tenps and Snowfall using Todays Normals.       Just a retired old timer Forecasters Opinion here. 

The best the ensembles can realistically do is the first two weeks. Beyond that you will usually see a big spread between the EPS, CFS, JMA, and GEFS weeklies. I don’t know of any model scores which rank the models from 3 to 6 weeks out. So it’s hard to have good data on which models may have some useful hints beyond 15 days. Many times the model errors week 2 get magnified making the following weeks change quite a bit based on where the errors verified in the week 2 time frame.

So for the coming January forecasts we will probably have to wait until we get into the first week like we did in December. Then we get the EPS monthly release on the 5th. Sometimes when the MJO becomes the main driver we can try to estimate where the models erred in past similar phases. But this year the MJO has been more a contributor than the main driver. Other features like random AAM fluctuations add more complexity to the forecast. Not to mention the competing La Niña and El Niño influences running concurrently this winter so far.

The one constant this winter so far has been stronger Pacific Jet than forecast which has been allowing the ridge out West to drift east from time to time. Very dominant Northern Stream influence favoring the Great Lakes for snow. Past instances of December with such a strong ridge near the West Coast featured much weaker Pacific Jets allowing the ridge to stay anchored near the West. Several of these Decembers had big KU events around NYC. Plus much colder average temperatures around NYC than we have seen this year. So this month is a warmer and less snowy variation from similar past instances.

 

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The MJO is headed toward phase 6 for the days preceding Christmas. Phase 6 is the warmest on average for NDJ:

 
I’m hoping for what the non-GFS model consensus is suggesting for early Jan, weak to moderate left side of MJO diagram. If this verifies, it would be conducive to a return to cold in the E US then.   

 Now the latest bc GEFS has other ideas with it stalling in moderate amp 7 and turning back into 6. Hoping it is out to lunch! That would not be good. Unfortunately the GEFS sometimes comes through on its own with previously seemingly out to lunch MJO paths. So, I’m not at all counting it out, especially with the warm MC.

 

Not the kind of news I would like to hear. The GEFS has been doing very well with the MJO sadly. But there is a caveat perhaps we get a big displacement of the TPV that would overwhelmed the MJO signal. Oh i forgot to add ensembles and Euro Weeklies are showing the colder pattern returning early to mid January. The pattern that came in early December muted the MJO signal when it was in phase 6 will probably again. I think when the colder pattern comes back this time it could come back for much longer than last time and with abundant moisture. 

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Not the kind of news I would like to hear. The GEFS has been doing very well with the MJO sadly. But there is a caveat perhaps we get a big displacement of the TPV that would overwhelmed the MJO signal. Oh i forgot to add ensembles and Euro Weeklies are showing the colder pattern returning early to mid January. The pattern that came in early December muted the MJO signal when it was in phase 6 will probably again. I think when the colder pattern comes back this time it could come back for much longer than last time and with abundant moisture. 

 Below is today’s bc GEFS MJO forecast. What are folks’ opinions about this?

Before answering that, consider these seven examples of a temporary stall/reversal of direction over just the last 6 winters:

2024: look at the circling in phase 7 back into phase 6 last Feb:

2023: circled late Feb from phase 7 to edge of phase 6:

2022: reversed in phase 7 Jan 1-5:

2021: struggled to get going in Dec near phase 6-7 border:

2021: stalled/reversed in phase 6 for 10 days late Jan and then stalled early to mid Feb in phase 7:

2020: Massive very long reversal/stall late Jan through mid Feb from phase 7 to phase 5 and then finally back to phase 6 but then back again to phase 5!!

2019: early Feb phase 7 stall/reversal into phase 6:

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Below is today’s bc GEFS MJO forecast. What are folks’ opinions about this?

Before answering that, consider these seven examples of a temporary stall/reversal of direction over just the last 6 winters:

2024: look at the circling in phase 7 back into phase 6 last Feb:

2023: circled late Feb from phase 7 to edge of phase 6:

2022: reversed in phase 7 Jan 1-5:

2021: struggled to get going in Dec near phase 6-7 border:

2021: stalled/reversed in phase 6 for 10 days late Jan and then stalled early to mid Feb in phase 7:

2020: Massive very long reversal/stall late Jan through mid Feb from phase 7 to phase 5 and then finally back to phase 6 but then back again to phase 5!!

2019: early Feb phase 7 stall/reversal into phase 6:

It's just the Gefs doing that. You get those crazy RMM forecasts more often with ensembles because it's a mean, so a couple goofy members skew the mean. 

[FPizz]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Below is today’s bc GEFS MJO forecast. What are folks’ opinions about this?

Before answering that, consider these seven examples of a temporary stall/reversal of direction over just the last 6 winters:

2024: look at the circling in phase 7 back into phase 6 last Feb:

2023: circled late Feb from phase 7 to edge of phase 6:

2022: reversed in phase 7 Jan 1-5:

2021: struggled to get going in Dec near phase 6-7 border:

2021: stalled/reversed in phase 6 for 10 days late Jan and then stalled early to mid Feb in phase 7:

2020: Massive very long reversal/stall late Jan through mid Feb from phase 7 to phase 5 and then finally back to phase 6 but then back again to phase 5!!

2019: early Feb phase 7 stall/reversal into phase 6:

Looking at the date it does it on the plot, who cares.  Its all fantasy range.  These plots gets posted all the time and no one ever looks back to see how they did.  I get the "history" is right on the map itself, but no one ever compares today to what was day 15 on 12/1 and how they actually did.  

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You also should be aware that Chicago winters haven't changed the way east coast winters have.

The most interesting thing about Chicago weather history is that it’s one of the few major cities of the world that the coldest temperatures on record since the 1870s occurred in the 1980s. The good thing about this is that the urbanization and population of Chicago expanded significantly from the 1870s to 1980s. So this shows that cities can still get cold if the air mass is cold enough regardless of UHI expanding. This is why the lack of all-time coldest temperatures in the East Coast Cities since before the 1940s can’t be blamed on UHI. It’s that the coldest air masses over time are increasingly getting limited to the more central parts of the continent away from the warming ocean influences and other factors. 
 

https://www.chicagoinmaps.com/growth.html

 

Time Series Summary for Chicago Area, IL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1984-1985	-27	0
2	1981-1982	-26	0
3	1983-1984	-25	0
4	2018-2019	-23	0
-	1872-1873	-23	0
5	1993-1994	-21	0
-	1898-1899	-21	0
6	1896-1897	-20	0
-	1874-1875	-20	0

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Below is today’s bc GEFS MJO forecast. What are folks’ opinions about this?

Before answering that, consider these seven examples of a temporary stall/reversal of direction over just the last 6 winters:

2024: look at the circling in phase 7 back into phase 6 last Feb:

2023: circled late Feb from phase 7 to edge of phase 6:

2022: reversed in phase 7 Jan 1-5:

2021: struggled to get going in Dec near phase 6-7 border:

2021: stalled/reversed in phase 6 for 10 days late Jan and then stalled early to mid Feb in phase 7:

2020: Massive very long reversal/stall late Jan through mid Feb from phase 7 to phase 5 and then finally back to phase 6 but then back again to phase 5!!

2019: early Feb phase 7 stall/reversal into phase 6:

What is your take on the new models showing a “Canadian warming” of the stratosphere at the end of this month? I know you follow that closely

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The best the ensembles can realistically do is the first two weeks. Beyond that you will usually see a big spread between the EPS, CFS, JMA, and GEFS weeklies. I don’t know of any model scores which rank the models from 3 to 6 weeks out. So it’s hard to have good data on which models may have some useful hints beyond 15 days. Many times the model errors week 2 get magnified making the following weeks change quite a bit based on where the errors verified in the week 2 time frame.

So for the coming January forecasts we will probably have to wait until we get into the first week like we did in December. Then we get the EPS monthly release on the 5th. Sometimes when the MJO becomes the main driver we can try to estimate where the models erred in past similar phases. But this year the MJO has been more a contributor than the main driver. Other features like random AAM fluctuations add more complexity to the forecast. Not to mention the competing La Niña and El Niño influences running concurrently this winter so far.

The one constant this winter so far has been stronger Pacific Jet than forecast which has been allowing the ridge out West to drift east from time to time. Very dominant Northern Stream influence favoring the Great Lakes for snow. Past instances of December with such a strong ridge near the West Coast featured much weaker Pacific Jets allowing the ridge to stay anchored near the West. Several of these Decembers had big KU events around NYC. Plus much colder average temperatures around NYC than we have seen this year. So this month is a warmer and less snowy variation from similar past instances.

 

How many times since the 15-16 winter have we seen the EPS/weeklies incorrectly barrel the MJO into phase 8 in the long range? I’ve lost count

@jbenedet

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What is your take on the new models showing a “Canadian warming” of the stratosphere at the end of this month? I know you follow that closely

 Actually, I haven’t been following “Canadian warming”. I mainly just follow 10 mb mean winds at 60N looking for potential for major SSWs, about which a lot of research has been done with lots of data gathered/available.
 
 What is exactly is “Canadian warming” of the strat. (which portion of Canada and how much warming is required?) and what is the significance of strat. warming over Canada as opposed to centered over the Arctic? Are there a lot of analyses of past events?

[snowman19]

 Actually, I haven’t been following “Canadian warming”. I mainly just follow 10 mb mean winds at 60N looking for potential for major SSWs, about which a lot of research has been done with lots of data gathered/available.
 
 What is exactly is “Canadian warming” of the strat. (which portion of Canada and how much warming is required?) and what is the significance of strat. warming over Canada as opposed to centered over the Arctic? Are there a lot of analyses of past events?

See Judah Cohen’s new blog:

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The best the ensembles can realistically do is the first two weeks. Beyond that you will usually see a big spread between the EPS, CFS, JMA, and GEFS weeklies. I don’t know of any model scores which rank the models from 3 to 6 weeks out. So it’s hard to have good data on which models may have some useful hints beyond 15 days.

 

The Euro ensembles currently are a leader in 2-6 weeks lead times based on the verification scores I’m seeing. They handled the early season cold pattern the best as well as the November torch. So I’d give EPS a slight advantage over other models as of now. 

I wouldn’t sleep on the Graphcast though. Its been doing pretty well. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

See Judah Cohen’s new blog:

 

 

 

 

Thanks. Even Judah said this in the blog:

“I have never analyzed Canadian warmings in my research”

 So, if he hasn’t analyzed them, who has? Without analysis, they’re meaningless to me as far as what they portend for the E US.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

P.S. Who cares about forecasting getting the pattern right.  On a forum containing mostly winter weather enthusiasts, all that matters is whether a cold & snowy outcome prevails. 

Because weather analysis and forecasting is an important tool which is a great benefit to society especially with weather extremes increasing. It makes no sense to just to shop for weather information which matches what you want to hear. I can’t understand what benefit is gained by seeking out forecasts which will never verify just because they match an outcome you enjoy. Then when they don’t happen we hear the chorus of all models and forecasts are terrible and can’t believe they made that forecast and people believed it. But if you go back and read all the data you will see the outcome was usually telegraphed very well if you followed the best information. My favorite outcomes from the past were great snowstorms which were well forecast or those missed by the models that greatly overperformed. Not forecasts for giant snowstorms which never panned out. 

[beavis1729]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Because weather analysis and forecasting is an important tool which is a great benefit to society especially with weather extremes increasing. It makes no sense to just to shop for weather information which matches what you want to hear. I can’t understand what benefit is gained by seeking out forecasts which will never verify just because they match an outcome you enjoy. Then when they don’t happen we hear the chorus of all models and forecasts are terrible and can’t believe they made that forecast and people believed it. But if you go back and read all the data you will see the outcome was usually telegraphed very well if you followed the best information. My favorite outcomes from the past were great snowstorms which were well forecast or those missed by the models that greatly overperformed. Not forecasts for giant snowstorms which never panned out. 

Your response is logical, and of course appreciated. I know you’re coming from a good place.
 

My point is that, when you love the beauty of winter and everything that goes along with it, it’s hard to deal with the trend of recent seasons. It’s like being a sports fan…there’s a lot of tradition, family, emotion, and deeper meaning to it all. It’s more than just the game itself. That’s how I feel about winter.
 

Everyone else can have the other 9 months each year…but let winter be winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think it’s just the opposite. Most people who started out in these forums back in the early days were winter cold and snow fans. What has changed over the years has been the actual winter  patterns near the Northeast have shifted much warmer since the early 90s and especially since 15-16 along with a decline in snowfall near the East Coast beginning in 18-19. So acknowledging this fact has lead to better forecasts.

You mistake discussing the record warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño as advocating for this type of pattern. More harm is actually done by referencing past analogs from a colder era which have little chance in today’s climate. Most people that I know would rather know all the factors at play than give them an honest evaluation. People get very angry when they feel someone isn’t being honest with them. Most on these forums get more angry if they are promised a big winter and one doesn’t show up. But will be pleased if they actually do better than the forecast. So there  is more risk in promising big and not delivering than under forecasting a great pattern. 

I wasn’t that surprised about the +PNA this month as I mentioned the possibility back in October with my mismatch and early indicator discussion. But I mentioned that other factors were at play. And at least in December so far we have had a much stronger northern branch of the Pacific Jet than past mismatch years with strong +PNA patterns. 

Hopefully, in January we can get the Western Ridge to stay put with a much weakened Pacific Jet leading to better snowfall potential along the East Coast. But if the jet can’t weaken enough and the ridge ends up near the East Coast after a pullback west, then it would be more of the same. I think people appreciate mentioning options when analyzing long range patterns which can be uncertain by nature.

I think some of the dearth of snowfall in at least SNE this month was attributable to bad luck. Next weekend is by no means a KU cookbook pattern, but it could have easily produced a decent snow event with better wave spacing.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

See Judah Cohen’s new blog:

 

 

 

 

To me it just looks like a typical wave 1 response with little to no action on the european side to try the squeeze play. So your typical wave 1 response would be to have a warm Canada, we would typically also see a colder eastern Europe but with waters well above average in the Barents sea they tend to moderate just too much and it looks rather mild. We saw something similarish last year.

This is not to say it follow in the same path but if I had to take a guess.

Here is a nice write-up for one that occurred in 2016/17 season.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL097024

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Below is today’s bc GEFS MJO forecast. What are folks’ opinions about this?

Before answering that, consider these seven examples of a temporary stall/reversal of direction over just the last 6 winters:

2024: look at the circling in phase 7 back into phase 6 last Feb:

2023: circled late Feb from phase 7 to edge of phase 6:

2022: reversed in phase 7 Jan 1-5:

2021: struggled to get going in Dec near phase 6-7 border:

2021: stalled/reversed in phase 6 for 10 days late Jan and then stalled early to mid Feb in phase 7:

2020: Massive very long reversal/stall late Jan through mid Feb from phase 7 to phase 5 and then finally back to phase 6 but then back again to phase 5!!

2019: early Feb phase 7 stall/reversal into phase 6:

It is projected rather low Amp so if realized as such, it wouldn't take alot for another Driver to negate or mute it's effects. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most interesting thing about Chicago weather history is that it’s one of the few major cities of the world that the coldest temperatures on record since the 1870s occurred in the 1980s. The good thing about this is that the urbanization and population of Chicago expanded significantly from the 1870s to 1980s. So this shows that cities can still get cold if the air mass is cold enough regardless of UHI expanding. This is why the lack of all-time coldest temperatures in the East Coast Cities since before the 1940s can’t be blamed on UHI. It’s that the coldest air masses over time are increasingly getting limited to the more central parts of the continent away from the warming ocean influences and other factors. 
 

https://www.chicagoinmaps.com/growth.html

 

Time Series Summary for Chicago Area, IL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1984-1985	-27	0
2	1981-1982	-26	0
3	1983-1984	-25	0
4	2018-2019	-23	0
-	1872-1873	-23	0
5	1993-1994	-21	0
-	1898-1899	-21	0
6	1896-1897	-20	0
-	1874-1875	-20	0

 

 

Over the span of 6 years (2014-2019) we saw about 4-5 rounds of cold low temps in the lower Great Lakes that we went decades without seeing in the 1940s-50s. It absolutely can still get cold.

[Daniel Boone]

36 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

To me it just looks like a typical wave 1 response with little to no action on the european side to try the squeeze play. So your typical wave 1 response would be to have a warm Canada, we would typically also see a colder eastern Europe but with waters well above average in the Barents sea they tend to moderate just too much and it looks rather mild. We saw something similarish last year.

This is not to say it follow in the same path but if I had to take a guess.

Here is a nice write-up for one that occurred in 2016/17 season.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL097024

Hopefully not the case for Winter weather Lovers or if so, it takes another route as SSW'S sometimes do .

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Your response is logical, and of course appreciated. I know you’re coming from a good place.
 

My point is that, when you love the beauty of winter and everything that goes along with it, it’s hard to deal with the trend of recent seasons. It’s like being a sports fan…there’s a lot of tradition, family, emotion, and deeper meaning to it all. It’s more than just the game itself. That’s how I feel about winter.
 

Everyone else can have the other 9 months each year…but let winter be 

I'll say it one more time. The last few seasons are leveling the playing field in Chicago after multiple winters that were much harsher than normal. You have nothing to worry about in chicago regarding cold snaps and snowstorms, that's not changing. But it'll never be the climate you want. In all but the most historic winters (ie 1978-79, 2013-14) you're gonna see bare ground at times in DJF, just as you will see snowfalls in Fall and Spring. Its just the climo. Pack up and move to Marquette 

[GaWx]

 The 0Z 12/16 extended GEFS fwiw through Jan 17th looks cold with ~4 Canadian highs plunging down about every 4 days starting ~Jan 3rd helped along by a stout +PNA, PV lobe in N Hudson Bay, a mean Aleutian Low, and no sign of a SE ridge followed by Pacific flow trying to return. Hopefully this near 2 week long pattern of cold would verify well. It has today’s Euro Weeklies on its side as well as the current dominant strong +PNA likely projected into Jan.

*Edit: Actually a 5th Canadian high was coming down at the end (Jan 19-20).

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully not the case for Winter weather Lovers or if so, it takes another route as SSW'S sometimes do .

This is a minor warming so I wouldn't expect major shifts in SPV location/strength or resulting 500mb/surface temp pattern to something seen in my post. If I had to say what may be influencing our pattern a bit right now it would have to be a blend of 3.4 trying to look Nina like and the WP pattern finally looking negative, for now. The PDO seems to be rather muted for now even with negative departures still around so as to not be the main driver. As Bluewave has mentioned there really are some competing factors taking place but things are not staying locked so while overall it may seem like the PDO is muted during these times when it relaxes we bounce right back to the -PDO stance. 

It may be a wildly variable season with no real clear direction that wants to stick out like a soar thumb.

[Daniel Boone]

48 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is a minor warming so I wouldn't expect major shifts in SPV location/strength or resulting 500mb/surface temp pattern to something seen in my post. If I had to say what may be influencing our pattern a bit right now it would have to be a blend of 3.4 trying to look Nina like and the WP pattern finally looking negative, for now. The PDO seems to be rather muted for now even with negative departures still around so as to not be the main driver. As Bluewave has mentioned there really are some competing factors taking place but things are not staying locked so while overall it may seem like the PDO is muted during these times when it relaxes we bounce right back to the -PDO stance. 

It may be a wildly variable season with no real clear direction that wants to stick out like a soar thumb.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking for the Winter. Basically a back and forth probably close to Average one for a change. I suspect the Pac Ridge to be on average further East than the typical Nina and more +TNH Pattern. The MJO may not be a big player if it continues low Amp regardless of Phase. 

[raindancewx]

No idea if it will hold, but my basic premise since Summer has been a 2013 / 2021 lag approximating 2024 based on different MJO progression timing. The alignment and magnitudes are not perfect, but it's damn close over a long period for a simple blend with some pretty impressive changes and flips in patterns.

Sorry, just got sick of all the stupid bickering with none of you having viable combinations for the winter. I finished my forecast 10/10 like I always do...just decided not to share it. Anyway - since no one is going to do what I asked and delete my profile here I might as give some clarity as I see it.

August 2013/2021 v. Sept 2024 - maybe add a degree 

Sept 2013/2021 v. October 2024

Oct 2013/2021 v. Nov 2024

Nov 2013/2021 v. Dec 2024 - we'll see if this holds.

January would go back to a -PNA look based on Dec 2013/2021, with cold north and west. February would be a repeat of Dec - cold east, warm west. March/April then see the Plains pretty cold.

[GaWx]

OMG, Raindance is back!! Holy Moses! Welcome back. Your expertise is always welcomed.

[chubbs]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What even is a SDD? Isn't it something you made up? I remember its something like 2"+ snowcover and a high below 20 or something. You literally once called 2013-14 a "decent" winter lmao. As for stats, they have been posted over and over on our Lakes forum, so you should be familiar with them. You also should be aware that Chicago winters haven't changed the way east coast winters have. You use Chicago's most severe winters on record as a baseline. I mean, I love snow probably as much as you, but as everyone in the lakes forum knows, you'll never be satisfied with your winters. 

You don't want to know the results for Chicago's snow on the ground stats. You know why? Because the 2000s and 2010s had better snowcover than EVERY decade since the 1920s with the exception of the 1970s.

???? The Chicago airport winter temperature trend is similar to east coast airports (and Detroit). Per the trendline Chicago winters are 5-6F warmer than 60 years ago. 

Snowfall is more variable locally, but I don't see big differences between Chicago and the east coas teither: 2000+2010s were good, and recent 5-9 years bad. Like many colder east coast cities a snow downtrend hasn't clearly emerged in Chicago despite the warmer winters. That is as expected due to greater snow variability and competing temperature and moisture effects.

[roardog]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

No idea if it will hold, but my basic premise since Summer has been a 2013 / 2021 lag approximating 2024 based on different MJO progression timing. The alignment and magnitudes are not perfect, but it's damn close over a long period for a simple blend with some pretty impressive changes and flips in patterns.

Sorry, just got sick of all the stupid bickering with none of you having viable combinations for the winter. I finished my forecast 10/10 like I always do...just decided not to share it. Anyway - since no one is going to do what I asked and delete my profile here I might as give some clarity as I see it.

August 2013/2021 v. Sept 2024 - maybe add a degree 

Sept 2013/2021 v. October 2024

Oct 2013/2021 v. Nov 2024

Nov 2013/2021 v. Dec 2024 - we'll see if this holds.

January would go back to a -PNA look based on Dec 2013/2021, with cold north and west. February would be a repeat of Dec - cold east, warm west. March/April then see the Plains pretty cold.

I think I speak for most here when I say I would love to read your winter forecast if you are willing to post it.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

No idea if it will hold, but my basic premise since Summer has been a 2013 / 2021 lag approximating 2024 based on different MJO progression timing. The alignment and magnitudes are not perfect, but it's damn close over a long period for a simple blend with some pretty impressive changes and flips in patterns.

Sorry, just got sick of all the stupid bickering with none of you having viable combinations for the winter. I finished my forecast 10/10 like I always do...just decided not to share it. Anyway - since no one is going to do what I asked and delete my profile here I might as give some clarity as I see it.

August 2013/2021 v. Sept 2024 - maybe add a degree 

Sept 2013/2021 v. October 2024

Oct 2013/2021 v. Nov 2024

Nov 2013/2021 v. Dec 2024 - we'll see if this holds.

January would go back to a -PNA look based on Dec 2013/2021, with cold north and west. February would be a repeat of Dec - cold east, warm west. March/April then see the Plains pretty cold.

Yeah, I also pointed out the one month gap between 2021 and this year.

November 2024 = October 2021 (torch month)

December 2024 = November 2021 (cool month)

January 2025 = December 2021 (another torch month)?

February 2025 = January 2022 (cool and snowy month)?

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

No idea if it will hold, but my basic premise since Summer has been a 2013 / 2021 lag approximating 2024 based on different MJO progression timing. The alignment and magnitudes are not perfect, but it's damn close over a long period for a simple blend with some pretty impressive changes and flips in patterns.

Sorry, just got sick of all the stupid bickering with none of you having viable combinations for the winter. I finished my forecast 10/10 like I always do...just decided not to share it. Anyway - since no one is going to do what I asked and delete my profile here I might as give some clarity as I see it.

August 2013/2021 v. Sept 2024 - maybe add a degree 

Sept 2013/2021 v. October 2024

Oct 2013/2021 v. Nov 2024

Nov 2013/2021 v. Dec 2024 - we'll see if this holds.

January would go back to a -PNA look based on Dec 2013/2021, with cold north and west. February would be a repeat of Dec - cold east, warm west. March/April then see the Plains pretty cold.

Thank you. 

Lol. I tried to get my account deleted too back in 2017, but no dice. Once they get you, they got you...during and after life!

[bluewave]

On 12/16/2024 at 8:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think some of the dearth of snowfall in at least SNE this month was attributable to bad luck. Next weekend is by no means a KU cookbook pattern, but it could have easily produced a decent snow event with better wave spacing.

I think around NYC Metro it’s mostly a result of the faster Pacific Northern Stream Jet than forecast which is too NS dominant. The poor wave spacing is a natural result of this process. Bad luck is a one time occurrence. These storm track issues have been occurring since 18-19 and are part of the recent multiyear pattern. One common storm track in recent years is the Great Lakes cutter. We can look at the long range on the 500mb charts and see there is a trough in the East forecast and many get excited. But once we get closer to forecast time it turns out the trough and cold arrives after the cutter. So we get 50s and rain followed by colder weather. Then the 2nd type track in this regime is the coastal hugger which also an issue for P-Types along the coast. Then the 3rd type of track we have been seeing is the northern stream low suppressing the southern stream so we get a little too warm near the coast or the bulk of the moisture with the southern stream goes south.