2024-2025 La Nina

[jbenedet]

I dunno ....I read through some of this stuff and I find it all unnecessarily complicated. Gobbledygook.... 

Keeping it simple....

I see significant differences between the MJO forecast for the GEFS and EPS... GEFS wants to spend a lot of time in phase 7 at high amplitudes while EPS wants to move through 7 at low amplitude and into phase 8 by beginning of the year. 

For the east, this is amounts to significant difference in sensible weather outcomes given the phase 7 (+AN) /8 (BN) tendencies. The GEFS currently has a lot more company than the EPS... my bet would be accordingly. 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are one of the only posters in this thread that has seemed more concerned about getting jabs in against perceived imaginary threats. Your history in this thread speaks for itself. Did you ever think that maybe there are a number of posters which left this forum due to posters like you? The only agenda that matters is getting the pattern correct.

Last comment.

The whole forcing issue began when I posted a 360 hr Eps map showing that it has forcing will be entirely in the E-Pac. It wasn't directed at anyone in particular. Go back and look, but you said I  can't use single periods and that I had to use 7 day maps and it went from there. 

I never attacked you personally nor questioned motivations, but you did. It's  called vigorous debate and my points were valid and apparently correct enough for you to feel compelled to accuse me of going "gotcha." Now I'm the cause of people not posting here? You're kidding me, right?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm very skeptical of a cold January. The only time we had both a cold December and January after 2010-11 was 2017-18, and even that one warmed up during the 2nd half of January, leading into the February torch.

The warm November/+PNA non-el nino cool December composites (1985-86, 2005-06, 2020-21) are saying warm January and cool February. In fact, all 3 years had below normal snow in January, and 10+ in snow in February at PHL:

 

1986: Jan 32.8F, 3.4 in snow; Feb 32.1F, 11.5 in snow

2006: Jan 40.7F, 0.4 in snow; Feb 35.0F, 12.0 in snow

2021: Jan 35.7F, 3.0 in snow (all of Jan 31); Feb 34.2 F, 14.3 in snow

My gut feeling tells me we're in for an extended warm pattern.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest JMA splits the difference between the Niña-like WPAC forcing  and EPAC Nino-like forcing in its latest run placing the mean trough axis in the Plains during January.

 Chris,
  Regarding the bolded, why are you saying the latest JMA has the mean trough axis in the Plains? The H5 map (last one) looks to me like it has it well E of that from just E of Hudson Bay SSW to Lake Erie/Ohio to the NE to central Gulf of Mexico (+ tilt). That’s 750-1,000 miles E of the Plains.

 I’m talking about where H5 is west to east. In the Plains it is WNW to ESE.

[bluewave]

On 12/16/2024 at 9:23 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I doubt mitch is who drove some away. There are clearly some in this thread who try anything and everything to go against cold and look for warmth. After a warm year the unexpected cold weather in December has not only greatly dissatisfied them, but it's also showed true colors. For a select few, there isn't a pattern possible where they would go cold other than if it is happening right at that moment. And even then they will immediately look for the next sign of warmth, why the cold won't last, why models showing a colder look will be wrong, etc. 

I think it’s just the opposite. Most people who started out in these forums back in the early days were winter cold and snow fans. What has changed over the years has been the actual winter  patterns near the Northeast have shifted much warmer since the early 90s and especially since 15-16 along with a decline in snowfall near the East Coast areas around NYC Metro and other spots beginning in 18-19. So acknowledging this fact has lead to better forecasts.

You mistake discussing the record warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño as advocating for this type of pattern. More harm is actually done by referencing past analogs from a colder era which have little chance in today’s climate. Most people that I know would rather know all the factors at play than give them an honest evaluation. People get very angry when they feel someone isn’t being honest with them. Most on these forums get more angry if they are promised a big winter and one doesn’t show up. But will be pleased if they actually do better than the forecast. So there  is more risk in promising big and not delivering than under forecasting a great pattern. 

I wasn’t that surprised about the +PNA this month as I mentioned the possibility back in October with my mismatch and early indicator discussion. But I mentioned that other factors were at play. And at least in December so far we have had a much stronger northern branch of the Pacific Jet than past mismatch years with strong +PNA patterns. 

Hopefully, in January we can get the Western Ridge to stay put with a much weakened Pacific Jet leading to better snowfall potential along the East Coast. But if the jet can’t weaken enough and the ridge ends up near the East Coast after a pullback west, then it would be more of the same. I think people appreciate mentioning options when analyzing long range patterns which can be uncertain by nature.

[GaWx]

SST anomalies in Nino 3.4 continue with their big drop:

OISST as of 12/14: new low

CRW as of 12/15: new low

CDAS as of 12/16 6Z: ~tied for its lowest though it’s cold biased

 

The equivalent daily RONI is likely now well into moderate range.

[jm1220]

All I’ll say is I’d rather be told the truth about upcoming warm patterns vs be told what I want to hear for subscriptions and clicks. I’d think/hope most of us do too even though we want snowy patterns and we bias what we read accordingly. And I have to ask-who’s been mostly right since the Pacific pattern changed in 2018? I don’t enjoy reading that it’ll probably stay snowless or below average snow but until the overall pattern changes in a meaningful way to bring chances south of I-90 that’s what’ll likely happen. And again most of you haven’t read Bluewave for years like I have and don’t remember how he’d highlight the tendency for NYC/LI to get big coastal snowstorms during our boom periods. We were due for a significant regression anyway. We all hope it comes to an end soon but the weather/nature don’t care about weenie wishes on a weather board. 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Chris,
  Regarding the bolded, why are you saying the latest JMA has the mean trough axis in the Plains? The H5 map (last one) looks to me like it has it well E of that from just E of Hudson Bay SSW to Lake Erie/Ohio to the NE to central Gulf of Mexico (+ tilt). That’s 750-1,000 miles E of the Plains.

 I’m talking about where H5 is west to east. In the Plains it is WNW to ESE.

You can see the ridge axis more clearly in this chart. It has more of a Niña-like look with the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge pattern. Whether it’s correct or the EPS wins out will probably come down to where the actual strongest forcing verifies. Probably too early to call for sure. But we can see the GEFS, EPS, JMA, and CFS with varying January solutions. Models really struggling with Niña-like and more Nino-like influences. 

 

 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the ridge axis more clearly in this chart. It has more of a Niña-like look with the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge pattern. Whether it’s correct or the EPS wins out will probably come down to where the actual strongest forcing verifies. Probably too early to call for sure, But we can see the GEFS, EPS, JMA, and CFS with varying January solutions. Models really struggling with Niña-like and more Nino-like influences. 

 

 

Chris, 
 I respectfully disagree with you. You and I are going by a different definition of trough axis. I go by where it is from W to E, which is the official definition. It looks like you’re going by where the anomaly is most negative (darkest blue). Based on where it is W to E, it clearly goes from just E of Hudson Bay to Western Lake Erie to the Central Gulf Coast. If one looks closely and takes into account that this map is tilted by tilting the phone/screen, one can see that at Chicago it is still slightly S of due E rather than straight W to E. So, I still say the JMA H5 trough axis for Jan is well E of where you’re saying it is.

[Maxim]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Last comment.

The whole forcing issue began when I posted a 360 hr Eps map showing that it has forcing will be entirely in the E-Pac. It wasn't directed at anyone in particular. Go back and look, but you said I  can't use single periods and that I had to use 7 day maps and it went from there. 

I never attacked you personally nor questioned motivations, but you did. It's  called vigorous debate and my points were valid and apparently correct enough for you to feel compelled to accuse me of going "gotcha." Now I'm the cause of people not posting here? You're kidding me, right?

Think it’s time you take a long break.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris, 
 I respectfully disagree with you. You and I are going by a different definition of trough axis. I go by where it is from W to E, which is the official definition. It looks like you’re going by where the anomaly is most negative (darkest blue). Based on where it is W to E, it clearly goes from just E of Hudson Bay to Western Lake Erie to the Central Gulf Coast. If one looks closely and takes into account that this map is tilted by tilting the phone/screen, one can see that at Chicago it is still slightly S of due E rather than straight W to E. So, I still say the JMA H5 trough axis for Jan is well E of where you’re saying it is.

Don’t blame the messenger. Here is the link to the charts. All the cold is up in Canada on the temp charts with higher heights along the East Coast and trough axis just west of Chicago. The warmest departures are near the West and Carolinas. That being said, all the models have varying solutions due to the competing La Niña and El Niño influences. So it’s anyone’s guess at this point which actual pattern wins out or be get some blend of all the varying solutions.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think it’s just the opposite. Most people who started out in these forums back in the early days were winter cold and snow fans. What has changed over the years has been the actual winter  patterns near the Northeast have shifted much warmer since the early 90s and especially since 15-16 along with a decline in snowfall near the East Coast beginning in 18-19. So acknowledging this fact has lead to better forecasts.

You mistake discussing the record warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño as advocating for this type of pattern. More harm is actually done by referencing past analogs from a colder era which have little chance in today’s climate. Most people that I know would rather know all the factors at play than give them an honest evaluation. People get very angry when they feel someone isn’t being honest with them. Most on these forums get more angry if they are promised a big winter and one doesn’t show up. But will be pleased if they actually do better than the forecast. So there  is more risk in promising big and not delivering than under forecasting a great pattern. 

I wasn’t that surprised about the +PNA this month as I mentioned the possibility back in October with my mismatch and early indicator discussion. But I mentioned that other factors were at play. And at least in December so far we have had a much stronger northern branch of the Pacific Jet than past mismatch years with strong +PNA patterns. 

Hopefully, in January we can get the Western Ridge to stay put with a much weakened Pacific Jet leading to better snowfall potential along the East Coast. But if the jet can’t weaken enough and the ridge ends up near the East Coast after a pullback west, then it would be more of the same. I think people appreciate mentioning options when analyzing long range patterns which can be uncertain by nature.

Winters of the 2000s-10s were leaps and bounds better than the mild 1990s here. Climate wise i have no complaints here. The last 2 winters sucked (esp last winter) but i expected some low snow years to offset the record snow of 2007-15; if it didn't happen it goes against climo and everything the weather shows us. I have a lot of weather knowledge myself, so I'm not coming here looking for a forecast, just enjoy browsing other opinions. Especially since this forum is more east based and here in the Great Lakes while we want some of the same patterns there are many other things we want to work differently. And trust me, the snowlover in me does not need a very cold pattern in January in MI (hello suppression). Just calling what i see. I also was not aiming anything at anyone, just my overall vibes when reading this discussion. Bottom line. There are absolutely cold and warm biased forecasters here and all over social media. It has nothing to do with climate, recent winters, or anything else. Just how it goes. 

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Don’t blame the messenger. Here is the link to the charts. All the cold is up in Canada on the temp charts with higher heights along the East Coast and trough axis just west of Chicago. The warmest departures are near the West and Carolinas. That being said, all the models have varying solutions due to the competing La Niña and El Niño influences. So it’s anyone’s guess at this point which actual pattern wins out or be get some blend of all the varying solutions.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

The following example of a (positively tilted) trough axis goes by the definition I’m using, which is where it is from W to E and which you’re not using:

 The JMA H5 trough axis for Jan is well E of the Plains (3rd map) (and positively tilted). In the Plains, the lines are from WNW to ESE as opposed to from W to E, meaning the trough axis is well E of there:

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

The maps speak for themselves. The base of the trough is west of Chicago with a ridge along the West and East Coasts. It’s only one forecast out of many. So we are still in take a grain of salt mode.

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Bottom line. There are absolutely cold and warm biased forecasters here and all over social media. It has nothing to do with climate, recent winters, or anything else. Just how it goes. 

While that is true, the only bias that matters in this business is getting the pattern right. If some people are bothered by pointing out the fact that the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months and only 1 top 10 coldest since 2010, then they should probably explore new locations to live which are much colder. Instead a few bad actors come in here and take that anger out on people that are just pointing out the obvious.

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The maps speak for themselves. The base of the trough is west of Chicago with a ridge along the West and East Coasts. It’s only one forecast out of many. So we are still in take a grain of salt mode.

 I agree to take any of these forecast maps with a grain of salt like I usually do. I‘m not debating that at all. Absolutely! Seasonal modeling is typically not high confidence for me. They can sometimes provide good hints though.

 I was just debating where you’re saying the JMA H5 trough axis is located. And now I’m going to also respectfully debate you saying there’s a ridge on the E coast. This JMA’s H5 ridge axis looks well out in the Atlantic to me. Why do you say it’s on the E coast? We are definitely going by different definitions.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The maps speak for themselves. 

While that is true, the only bias that matters in this business is getting the pattern right. If some people are bothered by pointing out the fact that the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months and only 1 top 10 coldest since 2010, then they should probably explore new locations to live which are much colder. Instead a few bad actors come in here and take that anger out on people that are just pointing out the obvious.

I'm not asking for a Top 10 cold month. I realize that JFM 2014 and JFM 2015 won't come around too often. One cold month, like February 2021 or January 2022, once in a while would be nice. Heck, we even got our coldest June since 1985 in 2023. June 2023 was probably are coldest temperature departure to average this decade. Thing is, we haven't had a sustained cold month (-1F to average) since then.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see the ridge axis more clearly in this chart. It has more of a Niña-like look with the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge pattern. Whether it’s correct or the EPS wins out will probably come down to where the actual strongest forcing verifies. Probably too early to call for sure. But we can see the GEFS, EPS, JMA, and CFS with varying January solutions. Models really struggling with Niña-like and more Nino-like influences. 

 

 

Good valid points. My guess is the Trough will be centered East of the typical Nina . As the Aleutian Ridge should average East of the usual Nina Position. I've thought this since November when the WPAC and NPAC SST State changed a good bit. Also, Webb's research lends to that as well. 

      So, when you average out the Seasonals you pretty much get that. The Plains/ Mississippi Valley mean position is very viable imo. So, my Outlook is a back and forth type Winter in the East with near average Tenps and Snowfall using Todays Normals.       Just a retired old timer Forecasters Opinion here. 

[Daniel Boone]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I agree to take any of these forecast maps with a grain of salt like I usually do. I‘m not debating that at all. Absolutely! Seasonal modeling is typically not high confidence for me. They can sometimes provide good hints though.

 I was just debating where you’re saying the JMA H5 trough axis is located. And now I’m going to also respectfully debate you saying there’s a ridge on the E coast. This JMA’s H5 ridge axis looks well out in the Atlantic to me. Why do you say it’s on the E coast? We are definitely going by different definitions.

Yeah, the position is further East. The warm anomalies is along immediate Coastal NC from what I can tell. The blue shaded area makes it appear further West. Any way you slice it, the Trough is suggested to be East of a typical Nina .

  If the current situation is any indication, it may be further East and be an Eastern based Trough. A possibility too.

[Maxim]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The maps speak for themselves. The base of the trough is west of Chicago with a ridge along the West and East Coasts. It’s only one forecast out of many. So we are still in take a grain of salt mode.

While that is true, the only bias that matters in this business is getting the pattern right. If some people are bothered by pointing out the fact that the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months and only 1 top 10 coldest since 2010, then they should probably explore new locations to live which are much colder. Instead a few bad actors come in here and take that anger out on people that are just pointing out the obvious.

A lot of people on here are severely mentally ill IMO, hence why you're seeing these weird knee-jerk reactions to your very informative and insightful posts.

[brooklynwx99]

37 minutes ago, Maxim said:

A lot of people on here are severely mentally ill IMO, hence why you're seeing these weird knee-jerk reactions to your very informative and insightful posts.

uncalled for

[donsutherland1]

The ECMWF is indicating that a Pacific Ridge pattern could develop toward mid-January. If so, any cold that develops during the first week of January could last 1-2 weeks before a warmer pattern begins to develop, assuming that the ECMWF is correct.

 

Recent ECMWF ensemble 46-day forecasts suggested that a PNA- pattern could develop approaching mid-January, so the outcome above is a plausible scenario.

Fortunately, all of that remains well in the future, so significant changes are possible.

 

 

[CP_WinterStorm]

50 minutes ago, Maxim said:

A lot of people on here are severely mentally ill IMO, hence why you're seeing these weird knee-jerk reactions to your very informative and insightful posts.

This. This is the shit that has made me a long time lurker instead of a regular poster. The high-schoolers I work with regularly behave better than some of ya'll. Grow up.

 

[beavis1729]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I doubt mitch is who drove some away. There are clearly some in this thread who try anything and everything to go against cold and look for warmth. After a warm year the unexpected cold weather in December has not only greatly dissatisfied them, but it's also showed true colors. For a select few, there isn't a pattern possible where they would go cold other than if it is happening right at that moment. And even then they will immediately look for the next sign of warmth, why the cold won't last, why models showing a colder look will be wrong, etc. 

Even if it has been cooler than recent torch Decembers, this isn't saying much.  It's supposed to be cold in December; why is that such a big deal?  Our coldest December 1-10 since 2010 - and what will we have to show for it for the rest of winter?  Nothing.  And a -5F departure vs. the 1991-2020 normals is not very impressive anyway, since the normals are so warm these days and keep getting worse over time.  Also, it just shows how obscenely warm Decembers have been since 2010...but we're celebrating this??

And, even in this supposed "cold" December, there's very little meaningful snow cover in the lower 48.  I guess one could blame the dry pattern due to the W ridge being too far east...but even if we would have had snow east of the Rockies during the "cold" Dec 1-10, it would melt by Dec. 20th in most places.  The point is that a supposed "cold" pattern still leads to pitiful snow retention at the time when winter should be in full force due to short daylight, Christmas, etc.  The point is that, no matter who argues with whom about 5,000,000 meaningless details, we can never seem to put together a decent stretch of winter in December, i.e., a "base" to set the tone fo rthe rest of the winter. Not saying we don't get cold periods sometimes...but they are interrupted by way too many thaws. You can't run a winter like that.  Once a lake starts to freeze, it should freeze over - not this back and forth freezing and melting crap.

It's not too much to ask for wintry conditions in a winter month, and our standards deserve to be higher. Who knew that December shouldn't be expected to be a wintry month anymore? That's what many seem to be implying on this board - it's a ridiculous notion full of denial and despair.  Like the 5 stages of grief - we've just given up even when we deserve better.  Is June not a summer month?  Over the last 50 years, there have been 2 Junes which could be considered non-summery:  1992 and 2009.  Ok, so 2 out of 50 years.  That's how December should be - 48 out of every 50 should be wintry.  This means highs 25-30 and lows in the teens, with building snowpack and ice beginning to form on lakes...and an occasional day of 40+. But people are now happy if half the days in December have sub-40 highs.  Pretty soon, people will rationalize being thankful that December is cooler than July - hooray!!!  

P.S. Who cares about forecasting getting the pattern right.  On a forum containing mostly winter weather enthusiasts, all that matters is whether a cold & snowy outcome prevails.  SDDs are all that matters, not snow amounts.  I think ORD has 3.1" of snow for the season, but most came in one day and it melted within 12-24 hours. But some use this as a way to say that "at least Chicago hasn't been shut out from snow, and it's not really as bad as some seasons up to this point".  But that's nonsense - people expect you to be ok with 12-24 hours of modest snow cover as of 12/16, with very little hope in sight for the next 1-2 weeks?

If someone could conduct an analysis showing the 10-year moving average of SDDs east of the Rockies since 1950, it would tell the story completely.  Our winters are becoming a disaster, and no sugar-coating will help.  No one is saying that *periods* of wintry weather aren't possible...but DJF is 13 weeks, not 2-4 weeks.  Every single December, it's the same crap over and over again for the eastern 2/3 of the country...not just one localized region. It's ridiculous. Mods can move this to whatever banter/venting thread you want - doesn't matter anymore.  And I know how people will respond - and the pre-emptive answer is "No, I shouldn't need to move to Fairbanks AK to experience winter." 

The only hope is for a change to the AMO cycle - but will that really matter?  It's hard to be optimistic.

[GaWx]

The MJO is headed toward phase 6 for the days preceding Christmas. Phase 6 is the warmest on average for NDJ:

 
I’m hoping for what the non-GFS model consensus is suggesting for early Jan, weak to moderate left side of MJO diagram. If this verifies, it would be conducive to a return to cold in the E US then.   

 Now the latest bc GEFS has other ideas with it stalling in moderate amp 7 and turning back into 6. Hoping it is out to lunch! That would not be good. Unfortunately the GEFS sometimes comes through on its own with previously seemingly out to lunch MJO paths. So, I’m not at all counting it out, especially with the warm MC.

 

[Maxim]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

uncalled for

truth hurts.

[GaWx]

New Euro Weeklies:

-Still not even a hint for a major SSW

-Week 4 (Jan 6-12): Just about as strong of a cold signal as yesterday’s, which was coldest of the then 18 runs to date, as it continues to easily stick out from global perspective at H5

-Week 5 (Jan 13-19): It’s the coldest of all 12 runs to date for this week with a notable cold signal in the E US, especially considering it is way out at week 5:

 

 So, now the Euro Weeklies have a notable E US cold signal for two consecutive Jan weeks (1/6-19) during coldest climo means. We’ll see if they hold. But strong +PNA Dec analogs along with non-GEFS MJO projections at least suggest that this is quite believable. If so, the best of winter to date by a good margin may be starting in just 3 weeks.

[michsnowfreak]

43 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Even if it has been cooler than recent torch Decembers, this isn't saying much.  It's supposed to be cold in December; why is that such a big deal?  Our coldest December 1-10 since 2010 - and what will we have to show for it for the rest of winter?  Nothing.  And a -5F departure vs. the 1991-2020 normals is not very impressive anyway, since the normals are so warm these days and keep getting worse over time.  Also, it just shows how obscenely warm Decembers have been since 2010...but we're celebrating this??

And, even in this supposed "cold" December, there's very little meaningful snow cover in the lower 48.  I guess one could blame the dry pattern due to the W ridge being too far east...but even if we would have had snow east of the Rockies during the "cold" Dec 1-10, it would melt by Dec. 20th in most places.  The point is that a supposed "cold" pattern still leads to pitiful snow retention at the time when winter should be in full force due to short daylight, Christmas, etc.  The point is that, no matter who argues with whom about 5,000,000 meaningless details, we can never seem to put together a decent stretch of winter in December, i.e., a "base" to set the tone fo rthe rest of the winter. Not saying we don't get cold periods sometimes...but they are interrupted by way too many thaws. You can't run a winter like that.  Once a lake starts to freeze, it should freeze over - not this back and forth freezing and melting crap.

It's not too much to ask for wintry conditions in a winter month, and our standards deserve to be higher. Who knew that December shouldn't be expected to be a wintry month anymore? That's what many seem to be implying on this board - it's a ridiculous notion full of denial and despair.  Like the 5 stages of grief - we've just given up even when we deserve better.  Is June not a summer month?  Over the last 50 years, there have been 2 Junes which could be considered non-summery:  1992 and 2009.  Ok, so 2 out of 50 years.  That's how December should be - 48 out of every 50 should be wintry.  This means highs 25-30 and lows in the teens, with building snowpack and ice beginning to form on lakes...and an occasional day of 40+. But people are now happy if half the days in December have sub-40 highs.  Pretty soon, people will rationalize being thankful that December is cooler than July - hooray!!!  

P.S. Who cares about forecasting getting the pattern right.  On a forum containing mostly winter weather enthusiasts, all that matters is whether a cold & snowy outcome prevails.  SDDs are all that matters, not snow amounts.  I think ORD has 3.1" of snow for the season, but most came in one day and it melted within 12-24 hours. But some use this as a way to say that "at least Chicago hasn't been shut out from snow, and it's not really as bad as some seasons up to this point".  But that's nonsense - people expect you to be ok with 12-24 hours of modest snow cover as of 12/16, with very little hope in sight for the next 1-2 weeks?

If someone could conduct an analysis showing the 10-year moving average of SDDs east of the Rockies since 1950, it would tell the story completely.  Our winters are becoming a disaster, and no sugar-coating will help.  No one is saying that *periods* of wintry weather aren't possible...but DJF is 13 weeks, not 2-4 weeks.  Every single December, it's the same crap over and over again for the eastern 2/3 of the country...not just one localized region. It's ridiculous. Mods can move this to whatever banter/venting thread you want - doesn't matter anymore.  And I know how people will respond - and the pre-emptive answer is "No, I shouldn't need to move to Fairbanks AK to experience winter." 

The only hope is for a change to the AMO cycle - but will that really matter?  It's hard to be optimistic.

What even is a SDD? Isn't it something you made up? I remember its something like 2"+ snowcover and a high below 20 or something. You literally once called 2013-14 a "decent" winter lmao. As for stats, they have been posted over and over on our Lakes forum, so you should be familiar with them. You also should be aware that Chicago winters haven't changed the way east coast winters have. You use Chicago's most severe winters on record as a baseline. I mean, I love snow probably as much as you, but as everyone in the lakes forum knows, you'll never be satisfied with your winters. 

You don't want to know the results for Chicago's snow on the ground stats. You know why? Because the 2000s and 2010s had better snowcover than EVERY decade since the 1920s with the exception of the 1970s.

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

New Euro Weeklies:

-Still not even a hint for a major SSW

-Week 4 (Jan 6-12): Just about as strong of a cold signal as yesterday’s, which was coldest of the then 18 runs to date, as it continues to easily stick out from global perspective at H5

-Week 5 (Jan 13-19): It’s the coldest of all 12 runs to date for this week with a notable cold signal in the E US, especially considering it is way out at week 5:

 

 So, now the Euro Weeklies have a notable E US cold signal for two consecutive Jan weeks.

Considering the warmth of the Week 3 outlook and snap back on the Week 6 outlook, it's possible that the coldest period might be right around the days leading up to and then following January 13th.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

44 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Is June not a summer month?  Over the last 50 years, there have been 2 Junes which could be considered non-summery:  1992 and 2009.  Ok, so 2 out of 50 years.

There were 7 Junes colder than 1992 and 2009 where I lived from 1974-2024 (including 2023). 1992 and 2009 are in red, colder years in blue.

70.3
72.2
75.2
68.6
72.6
69.1
70.6
72.0
68.7
72.0
73.0
68.8
73.8
74.6
72.3
74.7
72.2
75.7
71.3
74.4
78.1
74.3
73.0
71.1
71.5
72.9
72.6
75.2
73.9
71.3
71.8
74.8
72.8
73.8
76.4
71.1
78.2
75.4
73.6
74.6
74.5
74.8
74.2
74.6
72.7
73.9
75
75.1
74.4
70.6

77.4

[beavis1729]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

There were 7 Junes colder than 1992 and 2009 where I lived from 1974-2024 (including 2023). 1992 and 2009 are in red, colder years in blue.

70.3
72.2
75.2
68.6
72.6
69.1
70.6
72.0
68.7
72.0
73.0
68.8
73.8
74.6
72.3
74.7
72.2
75.7
71.3
74.4
78.1
74.3
73.0
71.1
71.5
72.9
72.6
75.2
73.9
71.3
71.8
74.8
72.8
73.8
76.4
71.1
78.2
75.4
73.6
74.6
74.5
74.8
74.2
74.6
72.7
73.9
75
75.1
74.4
70.6

77.4

I was talking about Chicago. But the point still stands, as even your coldest Junes still had average daily mean temps in the upper 60s, which probably translates to highs in the upper 70s. That’s pretty warm to me.