2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Possible backloaded winter: 

I'm pretty confident January won't look like that, but let's see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

The new Euro Weeklies:

-still no signal for anything close to major SSW (same for Dec 9 run of extended GEFS)

-Lack of either warm or cold signal for E US persists for Jan 6-19. If last half of Dec ends up not cold, I’ll favor no dominant cold during this period per cold ENSO analogs as dominant cold would likely not return til later.

Later is favored for any SSW.

[GaWx]

 NG market up a whopping 8% since this time yesterday! Traders are seeing a general cooling on the EPS/GEFS in the E US for week 2, especially 12/20-24. Fwiw, the Euro-AI has been very cold on multiple runs although it is still mainly a cold outlier.

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 NG market up a whopping 8% since this time yesterday! Traders are seeing a general cooling on the EPS/GEFS in the E US for week 2, especially 12/20-24. Fwiw, the Euro-AI has been very cold on multiple runs although it is still mainly a cold outlier.

Yeah, this map would get my attention if I traded NG futures despite being at the end of the run.

P.s. there is cold before this, but not to this degree

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

2008 was the best ENSO analog, as I have been saying...folks bailed on La Nina too quickly.

Hopefully we start getting active like 2007-08. 

[bluewave]

Both the EPS and GEFS have a classic El Niño North American pattern for Christmas with higher temperature departures in Canada than Florida.

 

 

[GaWx]

BAMwx (Michael Clark) brand new update: good update imho as it is well reasoned without the hype of last week’s super cold mid-Jan CFS based tweet. This is first public video update since Fri I believe. Last week he had you-tube updates on Wed and Fri and I had said those were pretty good presentations though I thought he had too much reliance on general CFS ideas on Wed. Today, like on Fri, he shows a better mix of multiple models rather than just focusing on CFS:

 

[GaWx]

 The more I look at the model consensus trends, the more I feel that the signs are there for an impressively cold period starting ~12/19 in the SE and ~12/20 in the NE and going at least through 12/23. Check out the 12Z GFS. Check out the last few Euro AI runs. Also, some of the Euro ops have been cold. The GEFS/EPS have at least been increasingly hinting at this possibility. 
 
 With all of this in mind, I feel that the chances for a cold dominated 2nd half of Dec are increasing in the E US from the earlier low chances. They’re still not high chances yet, especially with the still mild start (12/16-18), but the trend is telling.

 This wouldn’t be significant just for the latter portion of Dec. That would also change the cold ENSO analog set for the first half of Jan, which would switch from little chance for cold to a much higher chance.
 
 By the way, NG is up even further (~10% over the last 26 hours)! It sees that the previous mild latter Dec model outlook is at an increasing risk to bust.

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z EPS is Aleutian Low central Dec 16-26. Assuming it has a clue, this isn’t a mild pattern for the E US. It has only two really torchy days, 12/16-17. Other days are from modestly AN to MB. In addition to the current Arctic high coming down, the run has two more. This doesn’t average out to be mild by any means.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS is Aleutian Low central Dec 16-26. Assuming it has a clue, they isn’t a mild pattern for the E US. It has only two really torchy days, 12/16-17. Other days are from modestly AN to MB. In addition to the current Arctic high coming down, the run has two more. This doesn’t average out to be mild by any means.

Huge PNA ridge on all the models now.

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS is Aleutian Low central Dec 16-26. Assuming it has a clue, they isn’t a mild pattern for the E US. It has only two really torchy days, 12/16-17. Other days are from modestly AN to MB. In addition to the current Arctic high coming down, the run has two more. This doesn’t average out to be mild by any means.

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Later is favored for any SSW.

I’ve seen some evidence that La Niña/+QBO/solar max may support a late winter (mid-late February or early March SSW), but at that point, would it be strong enough to downwell and affect the troposphere in time to make a difference? And what kind of SSW? Major? Minor? Would it cause a split? Displacement? Which side of the pole would it favor? 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ve seen some evidence that La Niña/+QBO/solar max may support a late winter (mid-late February or early March SSW), but at that point, would it be strong enough to downwell and affect the troposphere in time to make a difference? And what kind of SSW? Major? Minor? Would it cause a split? Displacement? Which side of the pole would it favor? 

Based on Joe D’Aleo’s research that I confirmed with my own analysis of W QBO/solar max, I now think there will likely be a major SSW, probably anywhere from mid Jan through Feb.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Based on Joe D’Aleo’s research that I confirmed with my own analysis of W QBO/solar max, I now think there will likely be a major SSW, probably anywhere from mid Jan through Feb.

Will be interesting to see if his theory actually works out. Will also be interesting to see if we meet or eclipse the strongest +QBO on record 

[Allsnow]

 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Based on Joe D’Aleo’s research that I confirmed with my own analysis of W QBO/solar max, I now think there will likely be a major SSW, probably anywhere from mid Jan through Feb.

10mb forecast maps on Gfs, Gefs, Gem, Geps, and Cfs are all indicating some hits over the next 2 weeks. But I don't think they constitute a major SSW. But maybe a precursor? Idk.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

10mb forecast maps on Gfs, Gefs, Gem, Geps, and Cfs are all indicating some hits over the next 2 weeks. But I don't think they constitute a major SSW. But maybe a precursor? Idk.

Definitely nothing even close to an upward flux major warming of the stratosphere. JB was hyping one last week for clickbait and subscription money, but he’s dead wrong as usual 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’ve seen some evidence that La Niña/+QBO/solar max may support a late winter (mid-late February or early March SSW), but at that point, would it be strong enough to downwell and affect the troposphere in time to make a difference? And what kind of SSW? Major? Minor? Would it cause a split? Displacement? Which side of the pole would it favor? 

So far the stratosphere and troposphere have been decoupled from each other but this can always change down the line.

https://bsky.app/profile/drahbutler.bsky.social/post/3lbso7bj5q22r

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So far the stratosphere and troposphere have been decoupled from each other but this can always change down the line.

https://bsky.app/profile/drahbutler.bsky.social/post/3lbso7bj5q22r

Yea. Up to this point they have been decoupled but there is some good evidence that they will couple in the next 2 weeks

[GaWx]

After the next few days of cold and then just a couple of mild days, 18Z GFS is cold dominated starting 12/19 in SE and 12/20 in NE and this continues at least through 12/25.

[George001]

I’m a bit skeptical of the big Jan idea, looks like the 13-14 analog may have been a year early. So far I like the 12-13 analog, which did torch in Jan. My thoughts are that the strong PV will cause some issues in Jan, but come Feb we will see it weaken a bit and the storm track will come south a bit. The latest CFS illustrates this idea well with AN temps in Jan up to the Canadian border, where as Feb has normal temps north of NYC. Both Jan and Feb have well AN precip. The Jan pattern looks stormy but with ptype risks outside of NNE. I’m thinking Feb will be a very snowy month in Massachusetts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’ve seen some evidence that La Niña/+QBO/solar max may support a late winter (mid-late February or early March SSW), but at that point, would it be strong enough to downwell and affect the troposphere in time to make a difference? And what kind of SSW? Major? Minor? Would it cause a split? Displacement? Which side of the pole would it favor? 

Yes, and fair questions. 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

BAMwx (Michael Clark) brand new update: good update imho as it is well reasoned without the hype of last week’s super cold mid-Jan CFS based tweet. This is first public video update since Fri I believe. Last week he had you-tube updates on Wed and Fri and I had said those were pretty good presentations though I thought he had too much reliance on general CFS ideas on Wed. Today, like on Fri, he shows a better mix of multiple models rather than just focusing on CFS:

 

This is exactly the type of work BAMWX should be doing.

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

10mb forecast maps on Gfs, Gefs, Gem, Geps, and Cfs are all indicating some hits over the next 2 weeks. But I don't think they constitute a major SSW. But maybe a precursor? Idk.

 

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Definitely nothing even close to an upward flux major warming of the stratosphere. JB was hyping one last week for clickbait and subscription money, but he’s dead wrong as usual 

Warmings occur all the time it is the wave activity that is the important factor that coincides with the warming event. So far there seems to have been quite a lack of negative tilted troughs which send poleward flux which would help slow flow, weakening the SPV. Until we start to see that at the 240hr mark showing up consistently it is just a tale. As of now there looks to be a minor displacement event that takes place but nothing showing up right now through December maybe we start to see signs as we get toward the end of the month into January?

It would be nice to see the Atlantic side of things help out a bit but im not seeing it with a fairly large ridging pattern trying to set up along western Europe which leads to minor poleward flux just a bit too far south for my liking.

vT__lat_p_30N-80N_zm.pdf

[EasternLI]

The trend in recent days has the mjo continuing to slowly move eastbound into the Pacific. Gefs from 00z continuing that idea and with a decent amplitude as well. Starting to get into the phase 7 space at the end of these now. Would be great to see it keep moving, and that does look like a realistic possibility as of this moment. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

The trend in recent days has the mjo continuing to slowly move eastbound into the Pacific. Gefs from 00z continuing that idea and with a decent amplitude as well. Starting to get into the phase 7 space at the end of these now. Would be great to see it keep moving, and that does look like a realistic possibility as of this moment. 

It will be interesting to see what happens. My one concern is that the MJO is currently contributing to the pattern rather than running it. We continue to get more of an El Niño influence blending in with the EPAC forcing. While the CFS and EPS have more of a MJO 7 look in early January, the GEFS looks different. So the GEFS doesn’t have a clean MJO signal like the EPS and CFS. Not sure which way it will go at this point since competing influences make the very long range more uncertain. Plus you can see some La Niña influences in the GEFS.
 

 

 

[EasternLI]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see what happens. My one concern is that the MJO is currently contributing to the pattern rather than running it. We continue to get more of an El Niño influence blending in with the EPAC forcing. While the CFS and EPS have more of a MJO 7 look in early January, the GEFS looks different. The GEFS has forcing near 120W which places a trough near the Baja. So the GEFS doesn’t have a clean MJO signal like the EPS and CFS. Not sure which way it will go at this point since competing influences make the very long range more uncertain. Plus you can see some La Niña influences in the GEFS.
 

 

 

Yeah, it's all making this year an interesting one to follow. I'm curious how much of that suppressed phase we can nose over into 120E or if we can. 

[MJO812]

Maybe Christmas will finally feel like Christmas. Nice change in the models.

Nice ridge out west

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m a bit skeptical of the big Jan idea, looks like the 13-14 analog may have been a year early. So far I like the 12-13 analog, which did torch in Jan. My thoughts are that the strong PV will cause some issues in Jan, but come Feb we will see it weaken a bit and the storm track will come south a bit. The latest CFS illustrates this idea well with AN temps in Jan up to the Canadian border, where as Feb has normal temps north of NYC. Both Jan and Feb have well AN precip. The Jan pattern looks stormy but with ptype risks outside of NNE. I’m thinking Feb will be a very snowy month in Massachusetts.

12-13 torched more in December than in January. Also notable is that November 2012, with the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, was below average temperaturewise for most of the East. This is opposite of what happened in 2024.

05-06 seems to be the best fit so far this year. November temperature/precip profile (as well as the beginning of December), active late hurricane season, and possible late la nina almost fits this year perfectly. However, if we don't get a la nina, don't discount 92-93. That would be the only time in the last 50+ years where a strong el nino didn't transition to a la nina.

But I think you're probably right about next year. 93-94 and 13-14 look like early leads for a 2025-26 analog.

[jbenedet]

NAO Index is following very similar behavior to last year.

I would like to better understand why we see -NAO tendency dominate fall, flip to +NAO tendency around the beginning of winter (end of December/mid January), and predominate through mid March...

As we know from an ENSO state, this year vs last is apples to oranges and yet, the NAO index is following very closely...

Something bigger may be going on here...

I know on the climate change side there has been a semi-permanent "cold pool" observed to be centered in the region of iceland, which is theorized to be driven by the slowing down of the gulf stream component of the AMOC. Perhaps the development and peaking of this "cold pool" coincides with the the near solar minimum, which in turn drives the NAO Index to positive tendency. The cold pool is relatively less by mid March as SST's in the North Atlantic achieve minimum, and ISR is more influencial to +temp anoms in this part of the world...