2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention] seems like you don’t think the trough will retrograde? if this truly is acting like a Niña we should see the jet relax and the trough will retrograde as a result

I absolutely believe, 100% that the atmosphere is deep in La Niña mode. As far as why the MJO is moving strongly through phases 4-6, it’s because that’s where the warmest SSTs are and where the global heat budget is centered. Not a surprise at all that the strongest and most persistent convection is in those phase areas, Thermodynamics 101. I also believe that we don’t see the MJO advance past the dateline into phases 8-1-2 in any meaningful way. Why? I think: 1) the wave dampens and dissipates in the relatively cooler waters and 2) I think the enhanced trades/EWBs shear it to bits. I see 4-6 as being the dominant phases this winter. As to why ENSO region 1+2 is so warm….it’s because there is a CP/Modoki La Niña in place and that’s the classic SST configuration for such an event.

Some very good musings here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I absolutely believe, 100% that the atmosphere is deep in La Niña mode. As far as why the MJO is moving strongly through phases 4-6, it’s because thats where the warmest SSTs are and where the global heat budget is centered. Not a surprise at all that the strongest and most persistent convection is in those phase areas, Thermodynamics 101. I also believe that we don’t see the MJO advance past the dateline into phases 8-1-2 in any meaningful way. Why? I think: 1) the wave dampens and dissipates in the relatively cooler waters and 2) I think the enhanced trades/EWBs shear it to bits. I see 4-6 as being the dominant phases this winter. As to why ENSO region 1+2 is so warm….it’s because there is a CP/Modoki La Niña in place and that’s the classic SST configuration for such an event.

Some very good musings here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://x.com/wxtca/status/1865258203774357604?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

 

The CFS mean of the last 10 days is still going with record shattering rate of cooling from Nov to Dec in 3.4 though I don’t believe it will cool as drastically and is one reason I say to take the CFS extended temps for the US with a humongous grain:

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

absolutely believe, 100% that the atmosphere is deep in La Niña mode. As far as why the MJO is moving strongly through phases 4-6, it’s because thats where the warmest SSTs are and where the global heat budget is centered. Not a surprise at all that the strongest and most persistent convection is in those phase areas, Thermodynamics 101. I also believe that we don’t see the MJO advance past the dateline into phases 8-1-2 in any meaningful way. Why? I think: 1) the wave dampens and dissipates in the relatively cooler waters and 2) I think the enhanced trades/EWBs shear it to bits. I see 4-6 as being the dominant phases this winter. As to why ENSO region 1+2 is so warm….it’s because there is a CP/Modoki La Niña in place and that’s the classic SST configuration for such an event.

My guess is that we are seeing an interaction between competing influences. The big Southeast Ridge amplification this week is classic La Niña and MJO 4-6. But the stronger Aleutian Low longer range is more Nino-like. The faster Pacific Jet isn’t allowing the -EPO to lock in for very long.
 

Niña-like pattern coming up

Pattern becoming more Nino-like 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The CFS mean of the last 10 days is still going with record shattering rate of cooling from Nov to Dec in 3.4 though I don’t believe it will cool as drastically and is one reason I say to take the CFS extended temps for the US with a humongous grain:

@bluewave @GaWx The rapid Region 3.4 cooling is no surprise at all. There is no question that the atmosphere and ocean is strongly into La Niña mode as Paul Roundy clearly showed and the now classic CP/Modoki La Niña is going to gain a lot of strength this month. It’s finally responding oceanically with region 3.4 cooling dramatically. The -IOD is also gaining strength and is constructively interfering. +SOI, EWBs, Nina standing wave convection, MJO propagating strongly through 4-6, the entire global picture is screaming La Niña

 

 

 

 

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is when the MJO will be in the favorable phases so this has merit.

It has been showing this for days now!

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @GaWx The rapid Region 3.4 cooling is no surprise at all. There is no question that the atmosphere and ocean is strongly into La Niña mode as Paul Roundy clearly showed and the now classic CP/Modoki La Niña is going to gain a lot of strength this month. It’s finally responding oceanically with region 3.4 cooling dramatically. The -IOD is also gaining strength and is constructively interfering. +SOI, EWBs, Nina standing wave convection, MJO propagating strongly through 4-6, the entire global picture is screaming La Niña

 

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see if those IO WWBs can shift east of the Dateline by March leading to El Niño development in 25-26. The other possibility is that this La Niña is a late blooomer and we see renewed strengthing next few months and the La Niña next winter is stronger. So many competing influences can make the really long range even more challenging to figure out.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

It has been showing this for days now!

Yep good sign

[GaWx]

Latest CFS mean +AAM back a bit stronger again for late Dec/early Jan (El Ninoish despite it also rapidly cooling 3.4):

[roardog]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I feel this is bordering on hype as I’m seeing no evidence of above climo chance at major SSW later in the month at least as of now though I’ll continue to follow:

Despite what he says:

 

 So, why is he saying “major stratwarm to develop later in the month”? Major stratwarm requires 10 mb wind reversal. Euro says 2% chance and GEFS says 0%.

 

It's because he isn't using the real definition of major stratwarm. He's said before in posts on Weatherbell that he's calling it that even if it doesn't technically fit the definition. It's like when he calls any El Nino with warmer anomalies in 4 than in 1.2 a Modoki El Nino even though that is not actually the true definition of it.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

It's because he isn't using the real definition of major stratwarm. He's said before in posts on Weatherbell that he's calling it that even if it doesn't technically fit the definition. It's like when he calls any El Nino with warmer anomalies in 4 than in 1.2 a Modoki El Nino even though that is not actually the true definition of it.

Oh nice. So the idiot flat out admits that he’s doing it just to get subscription money from his east coast weenie base. Snake oil salesman spouting out lies and false info. He’s making a mockery of the profession for his own personal gain. What a total disgrace 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Taking CFS extended with a huge grain so fwiw:

Huge -WPO.

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Just to clarify for the readers, the last week, indeed, has an impressive cold area but it’s bottled up in SW Canada, N Rockies/Plains, and upper Midwest (Ninalike) with not much of a push SE from week 5. The SE ridge is then keeping the cold from the E US and making it mild in the deep SE, a common pattern during La Niña. I’ve seen many cases like this that only allow any cold to slowly seep SE and never cool the SE/Mid Atlantic that much. From the E US perspective, these situations make this “wasted cold”. Long way to go and it will change many times for better or worse, but that does fit Niña and warm MC climo well:

 

Here’s the week prior (week 5):

 

@bluewave

I was looking at this, looks different than yours.

[mitchnick]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I was looking at this, looks different than yours.

Snowman may have a thought or 2 why the WB maps are colder. Might want to ask him...and then duck!

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Good points Larry, but with michsnowfreak being in...Michigan, his excitement is justified imho. I know I'd be right there with him if I was in Michigan. 

True. Although in mid January too much cold can cause suppression, unless you get a great clipper pattern. Regardless I'm liking the looks for here (and don't think it looks bad in the east either).

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that we are seeing an interaction between competing influences. The big Southeast Ridge amplification this week is classic La Niña and MJO 4-6. But the stronger Aleutian Low longer range is more Nino-like. The faster Pacific Jet isn’t allowing the -EPO to lock in for very long.
 

Niña-like pattern coming up

Pattern becoming more Nino-like 

 

 

 

This is transient with the mjo being in the warm phases.  The mid to long range doesn't even look at warm anymore.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

JB rendered himself completely irrelevant years ago. The guy is delusional and willing to spread false info and lies to those who don’t know any better just for money, likes, retweets and follows. Only the hard core weenies take him seriously anymore. He’s nothing but a shit stain on the meteorological profession 

To you and Bluewave

The atmosphere warms 50 degrees in a 10 day period 

It's a sudden warming at 10mb
And it's a precursor to cold

It doesn't have to be a SSW event but Bastardi is 100% correct , the strat warms quick .

Once we are out of 6 , the pattern is going to change . Eps shows it nicely.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was looking at this, looks different than yours.

Thanks. I trust the ECMWF’s own maps over WB’s version, which is colder in many land locations on the globe:

ECMWF version of 12/6/24 weeklies for 1/13-19:

WB version of 12/6/24 weeklies for 1/13-19: colder almost entire lower 48, MX, C.A., S Greenland, Iceland, Norway, most of S.A., most of Africa, Arabian pen., much of Middle East, much of China, Korea, Japan; looks like another WB algo problem (too cold): so, why go by WB over ECMWF’s own version?

 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is transient with the mjo being in the warm phases.  The mid to long range doesn't even look at warm anymore.

You aren’t going to get any sustained cold next few weeks with that big +EPO vortex and fast Pacific flow.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

JB rendered himself completely irrelevant years ago. The guy is delusional and willing to spread false info and lies to those who don’t know any better just for money, likes, retweets and follows. Only the hard core weenies take him seriously anymore. He’s nothing but a shit stain on the meteorological profession 

It seems that every year he calls for major Arctic outbreaks in the very distant future (often calling for zero temperatures in NYC). Maybe he saw the BAMWX map from a few days ago and rolled it into the second half of January?

What those involved in hyping on Social Media for clicks and views fail to understand is that the atmosphere is chaotic. This greatly limits model skill, especially beyond 10 days. Models, themselves, are also limited by their resolution, which further constrains model skill. Having said that, the increases in skill for seasonal (3-month) anomalies is impressive, but such skill is nowhere close to being able to consistently call out the timing of distant events and their magnitude.

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

To you and Bluewave
The atmosphere warms 50 degrees in a 10 day period 
It's a sudden warming at 10mb
And it's a precursor to cold
It doesn't have to be a SSW event but Bastardi is 100% correct , the strat warms quick .
Once we are out of 6 , the pattern is going to change . Eps shows it nicely.
 

Complete nonsense on the major SSW. The SPV stays very strong. And BS on getting cold. Huge ++EPO developing, the EPO floodgates open wide and the entire CONUS and Canada get flooded with PAC air for weeks. Good luck getting cold and snowy. EDIT: @brooklynwx99 With your track record the last few years I’d tread very very lightly. And I only quoted Eric Webb because @MJO812 was making love to him last week

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You aren’t going to get any sustained cold next few weeks with that big +EPO vortex.

 

No one is calling for any cold air for the next 2 weeks. It's after Christmas when many are calling for a change. Also ,

The EPO vortex is about 7 days. Those anomalies show us going from p6 to p8 then 1 plus a massive ridge out west. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Complete nonsense on the major SSW. The SPV stays very strong. And BS on getting cold. Huge ++EPO developing, the EPO floodgates open wide and the entire CONUS and Canada get flooded with PAC air for weeks. Good luck getting cold and snowy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where is the huge epo ?

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

To you and Bluewave

The atmosphere warms 50 degrees in a 10 day period 

It's a sudden warming at 10mb
And it's a precursor to cold

It doesn't have to be a SSW event but Bastardi is 100% correct , the strat warms quick .

Once we are out of 6 , the pattern is going to change . Eps shows it nicely.

 

It seems that it will turn colder for the start of January based on the latest guidance. But that doesn't mean that there necessarily will be the kind of historic outbreak of cold that BAMWX is calling for or the severe Arctic outbreak that Bastardi is mentioning for mid or late January. Even if a colder pattern seems likely, source regions will be critical, as will the degree of blocking to sustain it.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It seems that it will turn colder for the start of January based on the latest guidance. But that doesn't mean that there necessarily will be the kind of historic outbreak of cold that BAMWX is calling for or the severe Arctic outbreak that Bastardi is mentioning for mid or late January. Even if a colder pattern seems likely, source regions will be critical, as will the degree of blocking to sustain it.

I still don't think bamwx was meaning that map to verify literally. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No one is calling for any cold air for the next 2 weeks. It's after Christmas when many are calling for a change. Also ,

The EPO vortex is about 7 days. Those anomalies show us going from p6 to p8 then 1 plus a massive ridge out west. 

With the strength of that Pacific Jet it could  take until the start of January to see cold departures like the first week of December.

[mitchnick]

Today’s weeklies run look as good or better than yesterday with again, only 1 warmish week across entire central and eastern US. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the strength of that Pacific Jet it could  take until the start of January to see cold departures like the first week of December.

We are not looking for - 8 temps by Christmas , we are looking for - 2 with favorable 500s

Thats what the retrograding trough does after the 23rd.

December will finish BN and Jan will have a very cold early to mid month period as we go from 8 to 1 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We are not looking for - 8 temps by Christmas , we are looking for - 2 with favorable 500s

Thats what the retrograding trough does after the 23rd.

December will finish BN and Jan will have a very cold early to mid month period as we go from 8 to 1 

The EPS is probably rushing the retrograding ridge since the axis has been ending up further east due to it underestimating the Pacific Jet longer range.

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s weeklies run look as good or better than yesterday with again, only 1 warmish week across entire central and eastern US. 

They look fairly similar to yest. No torch with lots of NN in E US (I’d take it). No big cold either. A couple of weeks are slightly cooler in the SE. Here’s the last 2 weeks fwiw:

Week 5:

 

Week 6:

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

They look fairly similar to yest. No torch with lots of NN in E US (I’d take it). No big cold either. A couple of weeks are slightly cooler in the SE. Here’s the last 2 weeks fwiw:

Week 5:

 

Week 6:

Good to see this 

Very good run