2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Model bias data can also be found here: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

 

 

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The cold E US bias is very well known because it is so obvious after analysis of numerous verifications and it has been going on for many years. I’m talking based on a compilation of all of the runs from every day for major cities throughout the US done scientifically by pro mets. It has nothing to do with cherry picking. If you still have any doubt, subscribe to Maxar. You and others would learn a lot from them. They have many pro mets on staff. Their forecasts always take these biases into account making them “bc” (bias corrected). They are not cold hypesters like JB nor cold Debby Downers. Maxar makes money off of their reputation for accuracy, not off of hype or down-playing. They forecast with emotion left out. Weenieism or emotional based bias is strongly frowned upon.

 When Chris and I talk about bias, we mean the average discrepancy between forecasted and verified actual.

What I was questioning goes back to my original post about grabbing a forecast frame and comparing it to another later forecast like Bluewave did while disregarding an opposite result on the same run for a different period. Go back to my original post.

I acknowledged the computers are flawed. My use of the word "bias" was in response to Bluewave's cherry pick...yes, cherry pick. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

 

What I was questioning goes back to my original post about grabbing a forecast frame and comparing it to another later forecast like Bluewave did while disregarding an opposite result on the same run for a different period. Go back to my original post.

I acknowledged the computers are flawed. My use of the word "bias" was in response to Bluewave's cherry pick...yes, cherry pick. 

You missed the broader context of my analysis which is why you incorrectly used the term cherry pick.

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was probably due to the ridge axis setting up over the Upper Midwest and Canada. So the models underestimated the temperatures under the strongest ridging. The ridge most other times has been located further east. So this has been where the typical cold bias has been. Unfortunately, DTN only posts the 90 day averages. So we don’t get to see the biases for specific patterns which produce a ridge in the East. Pattern dependent biases is the next level but they may not have the computer tech to pull off such specific data. I have noticed when the ridge sets up over the East this is when the cold biases occur. Shift it back to the upper Midwest and this is where the cold biases occur. But the northeast when averaged out over the last 9 years shows a consistent longer range bias beyond the what the shorter 90 day average shows.

 

 

 

Thanks, Chris. Honestly, I’m still surprised to see there being so much EPS warm bias over the E US in the 6-15 over the last 90 days. It is even showing warm bias over the Great Lakes, where the mean ridge axis was:

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris. Honestly, I’m still surprised to see there being so much EPS warm bias over the E US in the 6-15 over the last 90 days. It is even showing warm bias over the Great Lakes, where the mean ridge axis was:

Yeah, it could be related to the warmest departures setting up just to the west of the main ridge axis near Minnesota and the Dakotas where the cold bias was. It’s also possible the drought enhanced the radiational cooling over the Northeast with so much high pressure and light winds. So the Euro could have missed that. Most other times over the years we had a cold bias on those charts when the ridge was in the East with higher dew points.

 

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You missed the broader context of my analysis which is why you incorrectly used the term cherry pick.

 I know exactly what it's all about, hence why you cherry picked.

[vegan_edible]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 I know exactly what it's all about, hence why you cherry picked.

no disrespect man but @bluewavehas a wealth of knowledge to share and i would not say his responses are cherry picked

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

no disrespect man but @bluewavehas a wealth of knowledge to share and i would not say his responses are cherry picked

You can have a wealth of knowledge while also cherry picking and having a bias.  

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, FPizz said:

You can have a wealth of knowledge while also cherry picking and having a bias.  

Certain types of patterns have become more common over the last decade. So it’s not cherry picking pointing out the obvious. The bias being discussed involves the models. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

The NG market is now down a whopping 15% vs a week ago. I learned quite awhile back that this market is smart (as @Stormchaserchuck1knows well) and is thus a great barometer of expectations of temperatures in the E US in the decently predictable medium range. Being down 15% is saying a lot as regards how things looked in the medium range one week ago, when near term cold looked like it might last through the first half of Dec.

Wow! I'm impressed that it even seems to lead model changes/trends. I was noticing movements early in the day, then 18z and 0z would adjust. Now the long range is very warm, with a strong SE ridge for mid and possibly late December. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Also, a Natural Gas drop from 3.4 to 3.0 is implying a +NAO for January. 

I think the Crude Oil/Gasoline-Natural Gas spread is currently #2 lowest, behind only last year. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Also, a Natural Gas drop from 3.4 to 3.0 is implying a +NAO for January. 

I think the Crude Oil/Gasoline-Natural Gas spread is currently #2 lowest, behind only last year. 

Torch January was the easiest thing to predict for this winter.

[bluewave]

It’s no surprise the models have adjusted warmer going forward. The WPAC warm pool along the equator was the warmest for November at just over a +29.05°C. Forcing in these areas leads to a more pronounced Southeast Ridge. 
 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Also, a Natural Gas drop from 3.4 to 3.0 is implying a +NAO for January. 

I think the Crude Oil/Gasoline-Natural Gas spread is currently #2 lowest, behind only last year. 

That's probably a reasonable expectation. The preponderance of the guidance had been showing the following teleconnections states for the winter:

AO/NAO: Predominantly positive with some variability
PDO: Strongly negative to negative
EPO: Generally neutral to positive

An early-season EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+ does not necessarily mean that the seasonal guidance is off. If anything, it strengthens the idea of a more variable winter than the last two.

Until there is stronger evidence, one should not assume that the early-season pattern will likely predominate. There will be more variability, so there could be some additional episodes of such states. However, to get to the kind of averages depicted on the three-month seasonal guidance, one would need to see sustained periods of AO+/NAO+, PNA-, and EPO+.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Also, a Natural Gas drop from 3.4 to 3.0 is implying a +NAO for January. 

I think the Crude Oil/Gasoline-Natural Gas spread is currently #2 lowest, behind only last year. 

Agree with that, but doesn't necessairly mean an awful month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, FPizz said:

You can have a wealth of knowledge while also cherry picking and having a bias.  

Isn't the goal to cherry pick the correct solutions, as that as what he has consistently done for the past 3 years or so....would you like him to pick some terds to level off the verification score?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can tell you that I am pretty confident I am going to beat the guidance this month by a comfortable margin, and the primary reason why is taking what Chris has been saying into consideration, as opposed to dismissing it out of frustration.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's probably a reasonable expectation. The preponderance of the guidance had been showing the following teleconnections states for the winter:

AO/NAO: Predominantly positive with some variability
PDO: Strongly negative to negative
EPO: Generally neutral to positive

An early-season EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+ does not necessarily mean that the seasonal guidance is off. If anything, it strengthens the idea of a more variable winter than the last two.

Until there is stronger evidence, one should not assume that the early-season pattern will likely predominate. There will be more variability, so there could be some additional episodes of such states. However, to get to the kind of averages depicted on the three-month seasonal guidance, one would need to see sustained periods of AO+/NAO+, PNA-, and EPO+.
 

 

Bingo-

[jm1220]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

The cold E US bias is very well known because it is so obvious after analysis of numerous verifications and it has been going on for many years. I’m talking based on a compilation of all of the runs from every day for major cities throughout the US done scientifically by pro mets. It has nothing to do with cherry picking. If you still have any doubt, subscribe to Maxar. You and others would learn a lot from them. They have many pro mets on staff. Their forecasts always take these biases into account making them “bc” (bias corrected). They are not cold hypesters like JB nor cold Debby Downers. Maxar makes money off of their reputation for accuracy, not off of hype or down-playing. They forecast with emotion left out. Weenieism or emotional based bias is strongly frowned upon.

 When Chris and I talk about bias, we mean the average discrepancy between forecasted and verified actual.

I don’t like what the data and verifications are either for my backyard but it is what it is. The weather doesn’t care. I learn a lot from reading these analyses backed by said data I don’t like. Hopefully one of these days soon the W PAC cools down so our outcomes can change. 

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Isn't the goal to cherry pick the correct solutions, as that as what he has consistently done for the past 3 years or so....would you like him to pick some terds to level off the verification score?

Exactly. Bluewave might not be posting what a lot of us want to read but he’s also been accurate. I’ll take accurate and don’t want to see it vs JB-esque weenie garbage that never verifies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly. Bluewave might not be posting what a lot of us want to read but he’s also been accurate. I’ll take accurate and don’t want to see it vs JB-esque weenie garbage that never verifies. 

Yea, one thing I have learned over the past few years is to remain humble and always open to alternative thoughts...don't be afraid to admit error, incoporate feedback and alternate methodologies. A closed-mind and an expanding skill set are mutually exclusive.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Torch January was the easiest thing to predict for this winter.

It's only December 4 for crying out loud. Models can't even get anything right a week out let along a month out.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly. Bluewave might not be posting what a lot of us want to read but he’s also been accurate. I’ll take accurate and don’t want to see it vs JB-esque weenie garbage that never verifies. 

He was right last winter while everyone kept bashing him.

[uofmiami]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly. Bluewave might not be posting what a lot of us want to read but he’s also been accurate. I’ll take accurate and don’t want to see it vs JB-esque weenie garbage that never verifies. 

Didn’t enter Central Park snowfall contest in NYC subforum. Did he post a winter outlook either?  

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Didn’t enter Central Park snowfall contest in NYC subforum. Did he post a winter outlook either?  

I don’t devote separate threads to my discussions and forecasts. They are included in the NYC Metro and annual ENSO threads here. My sea ice and global temperature discussions are in the CC forum.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s no surprise the models have adjusted warmer going forward. The WPAC warm pool along the equator was the warmest for November at just over a +29.05°C. Forcing in these areas leads to a more pronounced Southeast Ridge. 
 

I’m honestly surprised the constant convection there doesn’t cool it down. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Didn’t enter Central Park snowfall contest in NYC subforum. Did he post a winter outlook either?  

He doesn't do seasonal outlooks...just like two week increments.

[GaWx]

-Nov QBO (at 30 mb): came in at +13.78 (about as expected) vs Oct’s +11.64.

-Based on historical patterns (back to 1947 on this table), either Nov or more than likely Dec will be the peak. Jan has only a very small shot to be the month of the highest as it will likely already be starting to fall then. Peak almost definitely to be from +13.78 to +15.6 with best guess in the +14s:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

 We very likely will have a solid -QBO next winter.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-Nov QBO (at 30 mb): came in at +13.78 (about as expected) vs Oct’s +11.64.

-Based on historical patterns (back to 1947 on this table), either Nov or more than likely Dec will be the peak. Jan has only a very small shot to be the month of the highest as it will likely already be starting to fall then. Peak almost definitely to be from +13.78 to +15.6.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

I think it may have a shot at being the strongest +QBO event on record. We’ll see 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think it may have a shot at being the strongest +QBO event on record. We’ll see 

The record high is +15.62 (June of 1995). I give it about a 10% chance to be exceeded. If so, that would almost definitely be in Dec or Jan.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s no surprise the models have adjusted warmer going forward. The WPAC warm pool along the equator was the warmest for November at just over a +29.05°C. Forcing in these areas leads to a more pronounced Southeast Ridge. 
 

It’s thermodynamics 101. The atmosphere is going to fire the strongest and most persistent convection over the warmest SSTs (MJO 4-6). That’s where the global heat budget is centered. And even despite the rise in the PDO last month, it was still record strong at over -3 as @GaWx pointed out yesterday. I honestly fail to see any change from last year in the PAC other than ENSO. This La Niña is finally, at long last starting to really take off (EWBs, +SOI, region 3.4 cooling, AAM slowly falling, -IOD) and it is entirely central-based/Modoki now too