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2024-2025 La Nina


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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The RONI seems to work better with La Ninas since the WPAC warm pool enhances the La Niña effect. But it doesn’t work the greatest with a very strong El Niños like last winter. The record Niño 4s extending west of the Dateline served to enhance the El Niño effect of the ridge in Canada which was on par with super El Niño events. The much weaker Aleutian low and Eastern Trough than past very strong El Niño events may have been a better use of RONI. But even then the numerical value wasn’t that much of a help in describing the actual pattern.

Yea, I learned that the hard way....the lower RONI being more reflective of competing sources, rather than simply a weaker El Nino was great way to conceptuialize it. I think it work better for an El Nino like 2002 or 1957...in which the lower RONI was reflecvtive of a more Modoki look.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

It’s the op GFS so it’s probably not right but Jesus Christ is that ugly on the PAC side after 12/16

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2024120212&fh=372&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

@MJO812 Yea a ++EPO looks lovely. Better hope the op has no clue (likely) and the GEFS doesn’t show the same thing

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It’s a bit concerning that the cold period before the relaxation appears to only be a 10 day window, I was hoping it would last another week. However, like I said before we won’t have a great idea of how things will play out until we get to the other side of the relaxation period. Are we looking at 10 days of cold/5 days of warm then back to cold? Or 10 days of cold followed by 2+ weeks of warm before a flip to cold? 

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18 hours ago, George001 said:

It’s a bit concerning that the cold period before the relaxation appears to only be a 10 day window, I was hoping it would last another week. However, like I said before we won’t have a great idea of how things will play out until we get to the other side of the relaxation period. Are we looking at 10 days of cold/5 days of warm then back to cold? Or 10 days of cold followed by 2+ weeks of warm before a flip to cold? 

These brief windows in recent years have favored the Great Lakes with the record lake warmth and the dominant northern branch of the Pacific Jet. 
 

 

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My area did just fine in early Feb 2021, January 2022 and even March 2023 across the interior.

January 2022 was the last time my area had a real winter month with the average temperature below freezing and heavy snows.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect a similar, but modified outcome next month...perhaps without the blizzard and still slightly above normal.

My guess is that will need a solid MJO 8 in January  like in 2022 to see more than a brief 10 day window of cold.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that will need a solid MJO 8 in January  like in 2022 to see more than a brief 10 day window of cold.

I think this deviations should grow easier to come by over the next few years as the Pacific cold phase relinquishes its grip. Caveat being I think polar blockking may be scarcer as we enter the descending phase of the solar cycle.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think this deviations should grow easier to come by over the next few years as the Pacific cold phase relinquishes its grip. Caveat being I think polar blockking may be scarcer as we enter the descending phase of the solar cycle.

We will probably need to see more Nino 1+2 warming in order to try and shift the Pacific cold phase. But even if we do a potential warm phase will still have to compete with the WPAC warm pool near the equator. In the age of marine heatwaves any cold pool east of Japan would pale in comparison to the marine heatwaves across other parts of the Pacific which would be different from our last +PDO era. Another wild card could be that we could actually see an east based El Niño like 97-98 should 1+2 really take off. But the actual 500 mb pattern could be different due to a stronger WPAC warm pool. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will probably need to see more Nino 1+2 warming in order to try and shift the Pacific cold phase. But even if we do a potential warm phase will still have to deal withe the WPAC warm pool near the equator. In the age of marine heatwaves any cold pool east of Japan would pale in comparison to the marine heatwaves across other parts of the Pacific which would be different from our last +PDO era. Another wild card could be that we could actually see an east based El Niño like 97-98 should 1+2 really take off. But the actual 500 mb pattern could be different due to a stronger WPAC warm pool. 

Yea, I understand there are caveats abound. We are due for a 1997 type of El Nino, but hopefully after the turn of the decade, which is when I think we could have a very favorable period, otherwise.

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I understand there are caveats abound. We are due for a 1997 type of El Nino, but hopefully after the turn of the decade, which is when I think we could have a very favorable period, otherwise.

A recent paper is trying to figure out why the EPAC hasn’t warmed like the rest of the Pacific and whether it will continue. It will be interesting to see if the record EPAC WWB and warming in the spring of 2023 was the beginning of a shift. Plus we just had the near record EPAC WWB back in November with the +AAM. It’s also possible that the big jump in global temperatures which wasn’t forecast last few years is somehow related. 


 

 

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52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect a similar, but modified outcome next month...perhaps without the blizzard and still slightly above normal.

I feel like this month is the November 2021, rather than January 2022. It seems like a cool, but dry month. I feel like we're going to get a torch next month, and February will be another cool, but this time snowier, month. 2021-22, if shifted by a month, looks like a fairly good analog to me:

November 2024 = October 2021

December 2024 = November 2021

January 2025 = December 2021

February 2025 = January 2022

This winter will end up having a similar temperature profile as 2005-06.

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest CFS ensemble AAM is still positive late Dec/early Jan (avg +1 to +2) though not quite as positive early Jan as that of prior (+2 to +3):

Latest: IMG_0929.thumb.png.0711f3d37c4db9fddb1dd652a01ab0aa.png

Prior:

IMG_0916.thumb.png.cb4561990bff5f9289f2a00ee0f48704.png

That’s the beginning of the drop I’ve been suspecting. There’s going to be a lag with the changes taking place in the PAC before the AAM catches up and really reflects it

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the beginning of the drop I’ve been suspecting. There’s going to be a lag with the changes taking place in the PAC before the AAM catches up and really reflects it

NG is down another 3%, which is very likely indicative of an overall warmer E US mid-Dec forecast. Also, yesterday’s longer term Euro Weeklies run for late Dec/early Jan was warmer than Sunday’s run overall fwiw.

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22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG is down another 3%, which is very likely indicative of an overall warmer E US mid-Dec forecast. Also, yesterday’s longer term Euro Weeklies run for late Dec/early Jan was warmer than Sunday’s run overall fwiw.

This has been one of the bigger reversals from cold to warm that we have seen from the EPS weeklies during this time of the year. 
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202412160000

Dec 9-16 new run

IMG_2178.thumb.webp.2739670055a0097b2fec28b015394253.webp

 Dec 9-16 old run

IMG_2180.thumb.webp.25bfd7485f4986b17d789498e7413317.webp

 

 

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Based on recent trends in the guidance, it seems that the faster pattern break forecast by the CFSv2 will be more likely to verify. If so, the moderation that will start as early as late next weekend/early next week could be the start of a milder regime. Its duration, once it sets in remains to be seen.

I believe the ongoing PNA+ regime will be more an aberration than the norm for this winter. Even as the PDO- has been dented based on recent SSTA changes, it would take an unprecedented rise for it to average positive for January or February. Thus, a PNA-/PNA-neutral regime seems more likely to predominate this winter, as had been depicted on the seasonal guidance.

In the larger context, I continue to expect that Winter 2024-25 would be more variable than the last two winters. It won't rival either of them in terms of warm anomalies, but it should still wind up warmer than normal. Snowfall opportunities should also be more frequent, with the Great Lakes still in line for near normal or even somewhat above normal snowfall.

 

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47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG is down another 3%, which is very likely indicative of an overall warmer E US mid-Dec forecast. Also, yesterday’s longer term Euro Weeklies run for late Dec/early Jan was warmer than Sunday’s run overall fwiw.

The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

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The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

The JMA has also been suggesting the same for mid-late December



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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of the bigger reversals from cold to warm that we have seen from the EPS weeklies during this time of the year. 
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202412160000

Dec 9-16 new run

IMG_2178.thumb.webp.2739670055a0097b2fec28b015394253.webp

 Dec 9-16 old run

IMG_2180.thumb.webp.25bfd7485f4986b17d789498e7413317.webp

 

 

And from the same runs looking 2 weeks later, the weeklies did this. It happens all the time. Models are crap shoots. Lots of variations based on projected timing.

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-ntcrn-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-u5e24d1h.webp

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-dwp6h-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-_i4xbc6k.webp

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The guidance has turned milder. The CFSv2 was hinting at this for several days and the other guidance fell in line. Often the guidance rushes such transitions, but not this time. I suspect much of the rest of December could be mild in the eastern half of the CONUS (still sufficiently cold at times for snow in the Great Lakes Region) but reduced snowfall chances for NYC and southward. Even the current colder period is on track to be milder than what had previously been shown on the guidance.

The fact that the CFS caught it early lends more credibility to that model.

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54 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And from the same runs looking 2 weeks later, the weeklies did this. It happens all the time. Models are crap shoots. Lots of variations based on projected timing.

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-ntcrn-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-u5e24d1h.webp

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-dwp6h-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-_i4xbc6k.webp

Here's even a better example. 2 weeks ago, 11/18 forecast, for the week of 122-12/9 on top. Yesterday's forecast for the same week that's upon us so there's no question how close the prediction will be. 

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-tskn5-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-euzqnvjp (1).webp

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-n2w5r-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-k5q2bmyh.webp

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16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's even a better example. 2 weeks ago, 11/18 forecast, for the week of 122-12/9 on top. Yesterday's forecast for the same week that's upon us so there's no question how close the prediction will be. 

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-tskn5-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-euzqnvjp (1).webp

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-n2w5r-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-k5q2bmyh.webp

I’ve been emphasizing how the Euro had 12/2-8 as much too warm not long ago. So, these outlooks are very far from being reliable. But at the same time I’d still rather them not trend warmer like most later weeks did yesterday.

 Aside: NG now -5%/low of day.

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