2024-2025 La Nina

[BuffaloWeather]

Lakes about to go nuts again. The analogs showing up are insane

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Multiple feet of snow will be possible through the weekend in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates will average one to two inches an hour, but higher rates will be possible.

 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lakes about to go nuts again. The analogs showing up are insane

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Multiple feet of snow will be possible through the weekend in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates will average one to two inches an hour, but higher rates will be possible.

 

Congrats. Enjoy!

[MANDA]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Congrats. Enjoy!

This heavy Lake Effect snow event has been well telegraphed for almost a week.  Had BIG written all over it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

NG is now down a whopping 7% since yesterday with a pretty steady drop the last 14 hours. It is now near session lows.

 Per a pro met friend:

MUCH warmer overnight,…!

-10 HDDs on the last 0z EPS vs the previous 12z run!

Edit: NG closed down 8%! So, this market is seeing either less cold or potentially an earlier end to it.

This time it was way ahead of models! 12z and earlier runs today had a solid +PNA pattern in the long range, now there is a drastic shift at 18z to almost -PNA in the medium/long range!

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

This is with a +NAO. If that pattern holds in future runs, with a Gulf of Alaska or Aleutian High and +NAO, it's not going to be that cold in the East after Day 10. Europe also goes warmer with +NAO, which has been a new trend of late.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lakes about to go nuts again. The analogs showing up are insane

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Multiple feet of snow will be possible through the weekend in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates will average one to two inches an hour, but higher rates will be possible.

 

Does the Bills game still get played on Sunday night, or will it get postponed?

[BuffaloWeather]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Does the Bills game still get played on Sunday night, or will it get postponed?

I think it gets played, right now they’re on edge of the heaviest totals. Alot of these early season events go futher north than modeled due to thermal troughing. Gonna be a close call. 

[so_whats_happening]

What I have found kind of crazy about this pattern is there is no retrograding features at all showing up. The overall trough/ridge pattern seem rather stuck even with a rotating MJO wave to try help kick things along. Even with this semi standing wave look, flow is still rather fast and we would need the buckled flow to buckle even more to really slow things down.

We do not have negatively tilted troughs showing up creating poleward flux onto the SPV so that will continue to strengthen slowly over time. 

I do feel the atmosphere is really trying to change going forward instead of trying to revert back to the same ol' humdrum. The fingerprint of the -PDO and background Nina-like state is still holding strong for now. The waters off of the NW coast of Australia are extremely warm right now. This may be something that needs to be watched as those waters are now some of if not the warmest in the equatorial ocean right now with the waters around 130E-180 are trying to cool a bit with these winds being stuck. I hope we can start to chip away at that warm pool in time. Outside of these few things nothing big seems to be on the horizon. I expect the PDO to be under -3 for the month of November which is a good thing to see. I am also not sure we get to a -.5 trimonthly, this next month should be very telling as we are pretty close to the typical Nina peak timeframe.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

I expect the PDO to be under -3 for the month of November which is a good thing to see.

 It looks to me like it will be close. Right now I have Nov MTD near the -2.9 to -3.3 range. My best guess is for -3.0 to -3.2. Jul and Aug were in the -2.9s. It appears that Nov was slightly more negative than those two, but the correlation of NOAA to WCS from month to month has been far from perfect. Thus, another in the -2.9s seems like a legit possibility even though I favor sub -3.0 right now. We’ll know pretty soon. If Nov is sub -3.0, it would be only the second time since 1851 for three sub -3 in a row. The only other time was in 1894.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This may be something that needs to be watched as those waters are now some of if not the warmest in the equatorial ocean right now with the waters

That’s why the extended EPS just joined the milder GEFS for mid to late December with the MJO 6-7 look due to the near record SSTs in those areas. 

Dec 16-23

Dec 23-30

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That why the extended EPS just joined the milder GEFS for mid to late December with the MJO 6-7 look due to the near record SSTs in those areas. 

Dec 16-23

Dec 23-30

Hopefully wrong 

Let's enjoy this upcoming cold pattern before worrying about late Decemvber ( well Christmas time is usually warm so not shocking there )

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That why the extended EPS just joined the milder GEFS for mid to late December with the MJO 6-7 look due to the near record SSTs in those areas. 

Dec 16-23


Dec 23-30

The EPS playing catch up in the PAC again. While the PDO has weakened since the beginning of November, it is still extremely negative, as is the PMM and IOD. In the Atlantic, the New Foundland warm pool is still going strong (+AMO):

The waters in MJO phases 4-6 are still anomalously very warm and that’s the general area where the atmosphere is going to want to fire convection, law of thermodynamics, convection over the warmest SSTs.

I think the answer to what’s going to happen once the WWB/+AAM effects on the wave train wears off is starting to be answered. The models are starting to finally reflect an MJO response around mid-December. We are seeing a very positive push in the SOI and are also seeing a very strong EWB in ENSO region 3.4. It is no doubt going to cool (possibly significantly) in December. Very clearly, a “Modoki” event is taking shape. There is also an absence of upward wave flux/warming into the stratosphere and that is going to allow the SPV to significantly strengthen next month. This fits with the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max base state. The saving grace with regard to the stratosphere is that there aren’t any signs (yet) that the SPV is going to couple with the TPV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The waters in MJO phases 4-6 are still anomalously very warm and that’s the general area where the atmosphere is going to want to fire convection, law of thermodynamics, convection over the warmest SSTs.

Yeah, this is why we are seeing these much stronger jet extensions than we saw in the past with these ABNA patterns. We get the strong +PNA -WPO block for a time before the Pacific Jet eventually pushes through. You can see the October SSTs in that tropical region around MJO 5-6 were near the warmest on record.

 

2010   28.957
2011   28.645
2012   28.604
2013   28.959
2014   28.778
2015   28.220
2016   29.360
2017   29.024
2018   28.820
2019   28.867
2020   29.208
2021   29.414
2022   29.298
2023   28.735
2024   29.312

 

 

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this is why we are seeing these much stronger jet extensions than we saw in the past with these ABNA patterns. We get the strong +PNA -WPO block for a time before the Pacific Jet eventually pushes through. You can see the October SSTs in that tropical region around MJO 5-6 were near the warmest on record.

 

2010   28.957
2011   28.645
2012   28.604
2013   28.959
2014   28.778
2015   28.220
2016   29.360
2017   29.024
2018   28.820
2019   28.867
2020   29.208
2021   29.414
2022   29.298
2023   28.735
2024   29.312

 

 

That's why I'm hoping we can at least see intervals of +PNA/-WPO like we're currently getting. 

January is prob our best bet but if we're getting mixed signals then Feb may not be a typical Nina blowtorch either 

[Terpeast]

If models are correct on a moderating trend end of second week of Dec, this coincides with MJO going into 5 at decent amplitude. 

My thinking is second half of Dec will be mild, NN to somewhat AN for the east until MJO goes into 7 and 8 sometime late dec or early jan, and that’s the next period I’m interested in. We should have more cold air to work with since Canada is almost entirely snow-covered. 

[snowman19]

Yeah, this is why we are seeing these much stronger jet extensions than we saw in the past with these ABNA patterns. We get the strong +PNA -WPO block for a time before the Pacific Jet eventually pushes through. You can see the October SSTs in that tropical region around MJO 5-6 were near the warmest on record.


 

2010   28.9572011   28.6452012   28.6042013   28.9592014   28.7782015   28.2202016   29.3602017   29.0242018   28.8202019   28.8672020   29.2082021   29.4142022   29.2982023   28.7352024   29.312

 
 

Finally looks like we are going to see a very strong EWB in 3.4. This one looks real, gaining strength and moving up in time

[snowman19]

@Gawx Sunspots soar to over 200 again and geomag on the way up. Wish @Isotherm still posted on here to get his thoughts on everything going into winter….
 

[MJO812]

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If models are correct on a moderating trend end of second week of Dec, this coincides with MJO going into 5 at decent amplitude. 

My thinking is second half of Dec will be mild, NN to somewhat AN for the east until MJO goes into 7 and 8 sometime late dec or early jan, and that’s the next period I’m interested in. We should have more cold air to work with since Canada is almost entirely snow-covered. 

That was yesterday's forecast. They slipped in a new one that shows the MJO collapsing.

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That was yesterday's forecast. They slipped in a new one that shows the MJO collapsing.

With those ssts being so warm, I don’t buy it… yet. But if this 4-6 pass trends weaker, the models may soon react to that and trend colder for the east.

ETA both gfs and euro weeklies put the mjo at the end of phase 7 around last week of december, with varying levels of strength

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

With those ssts being so warm, I don’t buy it… yet. But if this 4-6 pass trends weaker, the models may soon react to that and trend colder for the east.

MJO forecasting is like trying to predict who Juan Soto will sign with and the contract figures. Models are not capable, but my wag is that a neutral is even harder for them with no sustained established enso signal i.e. Niño or Niña.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

MJO forecasting is like trying to predict who Juan Soto will sign with and the contract figures. Models are not capable, but my wag is that a neutral is even harder for them with no sustained established enso signal i.e. Niño or Niña.

Trades may kick up a bit so we may get more of a nina signal, but still don’t think we’ll reach -0.5 ONI for an official nina. Maybe barely. So there will be other competing factors, with lots of variability and back-and-forths. Still think we moderate mid-dec, then turn back cold late dec early jan.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Trades may kick up a bit so we may get more of a nina signal, but still don’t think we’ll reach -0.5 ONI for an official nina. Maybe barely. So there will be other competing factors, with lots of variability and back-and-forths. Still think we moderate mid-dec, then turn back cold late dec early jan.

Can't say I disagree with any of this at this point. But that can all change in 12 or 24 hours of new runs as we know. 

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

MJO forecasting is like trying to predict who Juan Soto will sign with and the contract figures. Models are not capable, but my wag is that a neutral is even harder for them with no sustained established enso signal i.e. Niño or Niña.

Another model

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Another model

Yeah. I've posted this link before, but if you want to see the majority of the different model MJO plots on 1 page for easier comparison, try this one:

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

If you ever wondered how well can models predict the MJO, that link should give you the answer. Lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah. I've posted this link before, but if you want to see the majority of the different model MJO plots on 1 page for easier comparison, try this one:

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

If you ever wondered how well can models predict the MJO, that link should give you the answer. Lol

Looks like we will be in MJO 7 for the first half of January, MJO 8 for the second half of January, and MJO 1/2 in February.

[snowman19]

The RMM plots are way too noisy. @bluewave uses the VP/OLR plots, which are much more accurate 

[bluewave]

This is par for the course for the RMM charts which can be very noisy. The actual forcing on the VP anomaly charts is headed into the MJO 5-6 regions in December. This has been a steady forecast for weeks now. What has changed in the long range outlooks is that the +AAM influence is starting to wane allowing the more MJO 6 look for Mid-December to have more influence.

 

[mitchnick]

Lol. Noisy. They seem to be noisey when they don't show what you expect. Both of you have posted them before. Whatever. 

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Noisy. They seem to be noisey when they don't show what you expect. Both of you have posted them before. Whatever. 

We had this same discussion back in November. The VP anomalies remained constant in MJO 2-3. Remember when the forecast by some models was to stay in the circle using the RMMs? But it came out above a +2.0 amplitude. The RMM amplitudes can vary quite a bit from run to run but the actual forcing as per the VP anomaly charts didn’t change much. Now as we head into December the RMMs are changing amplitude again but the location of the forcing is constant near phase 5 early in the month with a slow progression toward phase 6 by mid-December. 

 

[mitchnick]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had this same discussion back in November. The VP anomalies remained constant in MJO 2-3. Remember when the forecast by some models was to stay in the circle using the RMMs? But it came out above a +2.0 amplitude. The RMM amplitudes can vary quite a bit from run to run but the actual forcing as per the VP anomaly charts didn’t change much. Now as we head into December the RMMs are changing amplitude again but the location of the forcing is constant near phase 5 early in the month with a slow progression toward phase 6 by mid-December. 

 

To determine whether they are "noisey", an undefined, subjective term I should add, we need to see forecasts from prior model runs since the Gefs have a new run every 6 hours. The difference between the 11/27 run RMM plots (it appears they calculate the plots off the 12z runs) and 11/28 plots may, in fact, be justified by a change in forecast by the model vs sssuming they are wrong. And considering model accuracy improves as we get closer to the target date, a model runs 24 hours later would likely be different and more accurate.

That said, I found Snowman's 'ing my post a better scientific explanation. Sorry. 

Happy Thanksgiving all.