2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll need the Pacific Jet stream and Aleutian Low to back off enough got get a pattern like 13-14 or 14-15. Notice how these features are eroding the western edge of the ABNA pattern. So the ridge axis is getting pushed further east with warmer conditions over NA than during those two winters. It’s still early so there is time for things to change later on. 

13-14 and 14-15 winters weak Pacific Jet and Aleutian Low

Early December forecast stronger Pacific Jet and Aleutian low tucked in near Alaska and ridge axis further east.

 

You point out a real important and big difference between now and 13-14, 14-15….those winters both featured a very muted, retracted PAC jet that allowed the pattern to go stagnant and basically remain in place for months with very few, brief and far between interruptions 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You point out a real important and big difference between now and 13-14, 14-15….those winters both featured a very muted, retracted PAC jet that allowed the pattern to go stagnant and basically remain in place for months with very few, brief and far between interruptions 

I don't think anyone expects the season to turn out that severe....cold stretches won't be as intense or protracted. That said, this beats the hell out of the lion's share of the past decade.

[roardog]

We are finally getting a sustained rise in the SOI. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see a little SE ridge start to show up in a week or so. I noticed the 6Z GEFS starting to hint at a SE ridge after day 10 with the coldest air moving to the upper Midwest/northern plains. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

We are finally getting a sustained rise in the SOI. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see a little SE ridge start to show up in a week or so. I noticed the 6Z GEFS starting to hint at a SE ridge after day 10 with the coldest air moving to the upper Midwest/northern plains. 

We want a little bit of ridging in the Atlantic or we'll never get anything to come up the coast. Like everything, it's too much of a SE ridge that's the killer. Looks to fade at the end of the run so hopefully it's not too much.

[GaWx]

 Natural gas (NG) has been down ~4.5-5% for the last few hours vs yesterday with most of drop from late last evening through early this morning. That makes me wonder if EPS and/or GEFS forecasted population weighted US HDDs has dropped notably vs yesterday’s runs.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, roardog said:

We are finally getting a sustained rise in the SOI. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see a little SE ridge start to show up in a week or so. I noticed the 6Z GEFS starting to hint at a SE ridge after day 10 with the coldest air moving to the upper Midwest/northern plains. 

It could also be the GEFS showing the MJO emerging from the circle on the RMMs with increasing Maritime Continent forcing.

 

 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could also be the GEFS showing the MJO emerging from the circle on the RMMs with increasing Maritime Continent forcing.

 

 

But with a neutral Enso, Phase 5 looks like this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could also be the GEFS showing the MJO emerging from the circle on the RMMs with increasing Maritime Continent forcing.

 

 

I would expect it to emerge into the MC given the decay of the +AAM in conjunction with the reinvigoration of cool ENSO.

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could also be the GEFS showing the MJO emerging from the circle on the RMMs with increasing Maritime Continent forcing.


 
 

@40/70 Benchmark

While I firmly believe this period coming up is WWB/+AAM forced, the reality is that it’s not going to last forever. Eventually that WWB/+AAM effect wears off and the wave train will adjust. I’m seeing some folks arguing that the MJO is going to be a non factor this winter and IMO that is not going to be the case. While the MJO is getting muted right now, I don’t think that remains to be the case. Here’s a good discussion:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

But with a neutral Enso, Phase 5 looks like this.

Those are general guidelines......we know what the base state has been for the past decade.  Take a look at phase 6-neutral, anyway...

[mitchnick]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those are general guidelines......we know what the base state has been for the past decade.  Take a look at phase-neutral, anyway...

Do you mean neutral Enso, because it is. Something else?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Do you mean neutral Enso, because it is. Something else?

Phase 6 neutral.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark

While I firmly believe this period coming up is WWB/+AAM forced, the reality is that it’s not going to last forever. Eventually that WWB/+AAM effect wears off and the wave train will adjust. I’m seeing some folks arguing that the MJO is going to be a non factor this winter and IMO that is not going to be the case. While the MJO is getting muted right now, I don’t think that remains to be the case. Here’s a good discussion:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't overlook that OV stretching, either....I have notied that and for one, I actually like the angle of the dangle.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phase 6 neutral.

Here are phase 6 neutral and Niña.  I attatch Niña because although we're are currently neutral, will the current trade wind burst get us to minimal Niña conditions? We'll see.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

But with a neutral Enso, Phase 5 looks like this.

The sample sizes on that site are very small and the JMA has a different look with their much larger sample sizes for MJO 5 and 6. The model trends next several days will be very important. If the +AAM and MJO start to produce an interference pattern, then we could see a series of ridges and troughs traversing the country with a very fast Pacific flow in December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The sample sizes on that site are very small and the JMA has a different look with their much larger sample sizes for MJO 5 and 6. The model trends next several days will be very important. If the +AAM and MJO start to produce an interference pattern, then we could see a series of ridges and troughs traversing the country with a very fast Pacific flow in December.

I hate that site, though...the graphics are much more ambiguous.

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

But with a neutral Enso, Phase 5 looks like this.

How accurate are those MJO plots past 10 days?  They are constantly posted, but the days talked about on them are always day 12++ and people act like they are always accurate, why is that?  Aren't those plots based on similar guidance that once you reach that far out in time have an accuracy rate of Rick Ankiel trying throw a strike?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The sample sizes on that site are very small and the JMA has a different look with their much larger sample sizes for MJO 5 and 6. The model trends next several days will be very important. If the AAM and MJO start to produce an interference pattern, then we could see a series of ridges and troughs traversing the country with a very fast Pacific flow.

Are you saying those plots are flat out wrong or just offering criticism? 

Model trends are always important and all forecasts are subject to change. And yeah, lots can go wrong with any forecast, but are you saying it will or just musing?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

How accurate are those MJO plots past 10 days?  They are constantly posted, but the days talked about on them are always day 12++ and people act like they are always accurate, why is that?  Aren't those plots based on similar guidance that once you reach that far out in time have an accuracy rate of Rick Ankiel trying throw a strike?

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

It's basically resulting 500mb plots from MJO in a particular phase based on Enso conditions.  Certainly, nothing's a lock since other factors can and do influence the pattern. But it at least gives you an idea.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Are you saying those plots are flat out wrong or just offering criticism? 

Model trends are always important and all forecasts are subject to change. And yeah, lots can go wrong with any forecast, but are you saying it will or just musing?

The tabelle site states that many of their composites are based on low sample sizes. JMA has a much larger number of cases. But the point may be moot if we see competing influences between the +AAM and MJO. In that case the resultant pattern may not look like any specific composite in either site but a blending of several. We usually have to wait and observe what the MJO actually does and then browse both sites to see which composites are doing better with the actual verifying pattern. So the model trends into early next week will be key in determining what the actual December pattern looks like.

[MJO812]

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tabelle site states that many of their composites are based on low sample sizes. JMA has a much larger number of cases. But the point may be moot if we see competing influences between the +AAM and MJO. In that case the resultant pattern may not look like any specific composite in either site but a blending of several. We usually have to wait and observe what the MJO actually does and then browse both sites to see which composites are doing better with the actual verifying pattern. So the model trends into early next week will be key in determining what the actual December pattern looks like.

So we just don't know. Lol

To be fair, it's hard to feel comfortable with any MJO forecasts past 7 days, and even that's a sttetch.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tabelle site states that many of their composites are based on low sample sizes. JMA has a much larger number of cases. But the point may be moot if we see competing influences between the +AAM and MJO. In that case the resultant pattern may not look like any specific composite in either site but a blending of several. We usually have to wait and observe what the MJO actually does and then browse both sites to see which composites are doing better with the actual verifying pattern. So the model trends into early next week will be key in determining what the actual December pattern looks like.

IMO some people are being way premature (mostly in twitter land) with assurances at the end of November, that the early December pattern is “locking in” for the rest of winter. Who knows, maybe it does. But based on the totality of everything happening now and has happened synoptically over the last few weeks, I think that may be a really huge mistake to be so sure of something “locking in” and being completely dominant for the next 3-4 months. That’s how you paint yourself into a corner you can’t get out of and lose credibility if it all goes by the way side

[Yanksfan]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sweet.☃️

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think anyone expects the season to turn out that severe....cold stretches won't be as intense of protracted. That said, this beats the hell out of the lion's share of the past decade.

Exactly. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO some people are being way premature (mostly in twitter land) with assurances at the end of November, that the early December pattern is “locking in” for the rest of winter. Who knows, maybe it does. But based on the totality of everything happening now and has happened synoptically over the last few weeks, I think that may be a really huge mistake to be so sure of something “locking in” and being completely dominant for the next 3-4 months. That’s how you paint yourself into a corner you can’t get out of and lose credibility if it all goes by the way side

Agree. On either pattern, whether the mild most of us were basically sold on or the possible one upcoming.

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We’ll need the Pacific Jet stream and Aleutian Low to back off enough got get a pattern like 13-14 or 14-15. Notice how these features are eroding the western edge of the ABNA pattern. So the ridge axis is getting pushed further east with warmer conditions over NA than during those two winters. It’s still early so there is time for things to change later on. 

13-14 and 14-15 winters weak Pacific Jet and Aleutian Low

Early December forecast stronger Pacific Jet and Aleutian low tucked in near Alaska and ridge axis further east.

 

Notice I said at time's. Also, the possibility of continual LP formation or strengthening off the NE and SE Provinces can act as a blocking mechanism and alter that eastward Ridge progression. That was one aspect of Feb 2015 . Continual LP development that worked in conjunction with the postive NAO in pulling Arctic air from the Arctic South into the Eastern States. Sort of opposite of the weird SER/-NAO Linkage. 

[GaWx]

NG is now down a whopping 7% since yesterday with a pretty steady drop the last 14 hours. It is now near session lows.

 Per a pro met friend:

MUCH warmer overnight,…!

-10 HDDs on the last 0z EPS vs the previous 12z run!

Edit: NG closed down 8%! So, this market is seeing either less cold or potentially an earlier end to it.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

So we just don't know. Lol

To be fair, it's hard to feel comfortable with any MJO forecasts past 7 days, and even that's a sttetch.

Yeah, it’s always more straightforward when the MJO is dominating the pattern. Then we just look up the composites on the various sites and see which ones fit the pattern better. I have seen intervals when the one site works better than the other and it can really vary at times. Then we have the additional challenge of figuring which way the pattern is going when the MJO isn’t quite as dominant and is competing with other influences. The good thing is that when one set of composites starts working, it will often follow the composites during the future MJO progression. Then sometimes the models don’t really agree on where the MJO is headed or how dominant it will become. So different models can have different outcomes. Many times the EPS has issues with the barrier effect and tries to stall the MJO before getting to the Maritime Continent phases. The GEFS had more of a MJO 6 look from the JMA site at 12z. Will it be correct? Who knows for sure with the recent  model forecast volatility. But it’s just something to be aware of in order to see where one individual model is headed. Nothing is set in stone and there can be plenty of long range model volatility this time of year due to the change of seasons as the means are falling a a fast rate from fall into winter along with the attendant wavelength changes.

 

12z GEFS mean had a MJO 6 look in mid-December using the JMA composites with 57 date composite 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Anybody have any opinions on this guy? I don't follow anybody on X. It was posted in the MA forum.

https://x.com/shark_wx/status/1861847216656195755?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1861847216656195755|twgr^852392dce2a573042c1988905ef4040d137e79bf|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fshark_wx%2Fstatus%2F1861847216656195755%3Ft%3DVToEIAHSESOX90fk7tm_Fg26s%3D19