2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The pattern coming up looks incredible, so many wintry chances. The lakes are going to be firing the first week of December.

It really looks like a great pattern. Per OHWeather, it looks panhandle hook/cutter-ish initially the end of November and looks more clipper-ish by a week into December. 

First dusting of snow this morning, my sister told me my nephews were so excited. I never turn down a flake of snow, whether its January of April, but theres nothing like the excitement/anticipation at the beginning of the snow season/winter. And its even better when the weather cooperates during the holidays.

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Down this way 18-19 had 27", 19-20 had 7"

2018-19 wasnt all bad, just a forgettable snow season here. We also had 3 ice storms and the insane arctic blast in late January. I still remember walking in the park in the bitter cold. The snow was so crunchy and the trees would not stop that eerie creak sound you only get when its SOO cold.

I think for most the clear winner in the post-2015 era is 2017-18. I also think many of us would kill to do a repeat of 2007-2015 or so.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

35 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Down this way 18-19 had 27", 19-20 had 7"

A little more south and a lot of locations had less than an inch of snow in 19-20.

PHL had 17.1" of snow in 18-19 and 0.3" in 19-20, while ACY had 17.8" in 18-19 and 0.5" in 19-20.

[GaWx]

 Natural gas is now up a whopping 7% for the day and is at its highest since way back in Oct of 2023. To those who don’t know, NG price trends reflect well on the trend in EPS and GEFS forecasted E US temperatures, especially for days 10-16. When there’s a day with a significant drop (eventually it has to happen), that would tell me without looking at the ensembles that the colder ensemble E US trend very well may have stopped.

[GaWx]

Note the change for 12/2-8 on the Euro Weeklies in just 4 days:

11/17 run:

 

11/21 run: 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Natural gas is now up a whopping 7% for the day and is at its highest since way back in Oct of 2023. To those who don’t know, NG price trends reflect well on the trend in EPS and GEFS forecasted E US temperatures, especially for days 10-16. When there’s a day with a significant drop (eventually it has to happen), that would tell me without looking at the ensembles that the colder ensemble E US trend very well may have stopped.

This is because of the constant -WPO being forecasted, through Day 16.  Beware though, 2022 started off like this.  2013 did have the pattern change from -PDO in Sept-Oct as a -WPO pattern. 

This is the +NAO/-EPO correlation I have been talking so much about, as is a default pattern right now. I was saying in the Summer that I would actually prefer +NAO in the Wintertime because of this correlation. 

[michsnowfreak]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Note the change for 12/2-8 on the Euro Weeklies in just 4 days:

11/17 run:

 

11/21 run: 

I was just coming to post....weeklies continue to get colder.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The thing to watch is where the storm track sets up. While the models ave been correcting stronger with the ridge over the Bering Sea into the first week of December, they still have a robust MJO wave running through 4-6. So even if it’s not the dominant factor it can still influence the storm tracks. If it’s strong enough the lows could run close to or just inland from I-95. Then the cold we see on the week 2 means could come in behind any lows rather than in front of them. If the storm tracks are still too warm for the coast, then will know the MJO is still exerting some influence. Should the storm tracks slide east then we’ll know the block near Alaska won out. It will be interesting to see how things go.

If we do in fact see a strong MJO pass through 4-5-6 in December as is being projected and there is no semblance of a typical phase response, then it will be a really huge clue that a different forcing mechanism is trumping it. Agree with that. As far as whether we see a very weak Niña or cold-neutral, there have been cases of cold-neutrals in November that ended up being Nina’s by the New Year. Do I think it’s likely? Probably not, but that said, the models are predicting a pretty healthy trade wind burst in 3.4 next month:

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is because of the constant -WPO being forecasted, through Day 16.  Beware though, 2022 started off like this.  2013 did have the pattern change from -PDO in Sept-Oct as a -WPO pattern. 

This is the +NAO/-EPO correlation I have been talking so much about, as is a default pattern right now. I was saying in the Summer that I would actually prefer +NAO in the Wintertime because of this correlation. 

That’s the issue with 2013. 1st, the PDO wasn’t starting as a record breaking -3.5 in October like this year and 2nd, the PDO started weakening by the beginning of September, 2013. This -PDO started weakening just after the beginning of November. 2013 had almost a 3 month head start on us and it wasn’t starting as a record negative event. Even though this PDO has weakened, it’s still strongly negative, in actual numbers and appearance 

[George001]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the issue with 2013. 1st, the PDO wasn’t starting as a record breaking -3.5 in October like this year and 2nd, the PDO started weakening by the beginning of September, 2013. This -PDO started weakening just after the beginning of November. 2013 had almost a 3 month head start on us and it wasn’t starting as a record negative event. Even though this PDO has weakened, it’s still strongly negative, in actual numbers and appearance 

12-13 (my #1 analog) had an earlier peak, but the -PDO peaked at -3 in September and was solidly in the moderate to strongly negative range throughout the winter. The timing is a bit off but I still would consider that to be the best match for PDO. 08-09 is decent too, but the PDO was more stable, hovered just above -2 and that continued into the winter. I agree with your general point though, although the -PDO has weakened a lot historically -2 PDO Novembers lead to moderate to strongly negative PDO winters. I considered using 92-93 and 93-94 as analogs because I like the solar match, but decided to eliminate them as potential analogs after looking at the PDO progression (both years were +PDO). 

[George001]

Although I prefer 12-13 and 08-09 for the PDO specifically, in my opinion 13-14 is still a very strong analog. Great ENSO match (cold neutral), still a -PDO winter (like this will be), above average ACE, great polar match, etc. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If we do in fact see a strong MJO pass through 4-5-6 in December as is being projected and there is no semblance of a typical phase response, then it will be a really huge clue that a different forcing mechanism is trumping it. Agree with that. As far as whether we see a very weak Niña or cold-neutral, there have been cases of cold-neutrals in November that ended up being Nina’s by the New Year. Do I think it’s likely? Probably not, but that said, the models are predicting a pretty healthy trade wind burst in 3.4 next month:

 

 

 

 

I like this tweet because it illustrates both the expected paths this winter can take (13-14, 01-02, 08-09 are all good to great analogs), and an unlikely but possible wrinkle. I do not think it will happen based on the latest guidance and current background state, but 92-93 came off a strong El Niño, was cold neutral in November and then ENSO warmed back up to warm neutral in winter. There isn’t enough to consider it a viable analog right now, but I’m keeping an eye on it as a “what could go wrong” thing. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 minutes ago, George001 said:

Great ENSO match (cold neutral), still a -PDO winter (like this will be), above average ACE, great polar match, etc. 

This is in regards to 12-13, not 13-14, right? Because 2012 was an active hurricane season, 2013 not so much.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is in regards to 12-13, not 13-14, right? Because 2012 was an active hurricane season, 2013 not so much.

Yeah, my mistake. 13-14 had an extremely low ACE, it was below 50. 12-13 was the more active one with hurricane Sandy. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the issue with 2013. 1st, the PDO wasn’t starting as a record breaking -3.5 in October like this year and 2nd, the PDO started weakening by the beginning of September, 2013. This -PDO started weakening just after the beginning of November. 2013 had almost a 3 month head start on us and it wasn’t starting as a record negative event. Even though this PDO has weakened, it’s still strongly negative, in actual numbers and appearance 

2013 is about the only cold analog we have going lately, so I was just making a reference how the strong -PDO that year got weathered by a transition to -WPO in Sept through December. We had a warm Fall pattern this year and the PDO is still super negative, so that may hold weight going further into the Winter, but I do like this Pacific pattern for the next 15 days. 

[mitchnick]

From MA forum link

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1859834206731514183?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1859834206731514183|twgr^11980a2b1ad670b9969d1980f82fb5188548f3a7|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1859834206731514183

[mitchnick]

Looks like Euro weekly control caved for December. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If we do in fact see a strong MJO pass through 4-5-6 in December as is being projected and there is no semblance of a typical phase response, then it will be a really huge clue that a different forcing mechanism is trumping it. Agree with that. As far as whether we see a very weak Niña or cold-neutral, there have been cases of cold-neutrals in November that ended up being Nina’s by the New Year. Do I think it’s likely? Probably not, but that said, the models are predicting a pretty healthy trade wind burst in 3.4 next month:

 

 

 

 

It’s looking more like we some type of mismatch pattern at least for the first 2 weeks of December where the entire Pacific pattern goes in the opposite direction of La Niña due to the recent +AAM spike and Nino 1+2 warming. 

November 5th Euro forecast for December with a stock La Niña -PDO composite 

 

New run more of a mismatch pattern which I discussed back in October with the MJO following highly amplified October 2020, 2017 pattern and less influence in December

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2013 is about the only cold analog we have going lately, so I was just making a reference how the strong -PDO that year got weathered by a transition to -WPO in Sept through December. We had a warm Fall pattern this year and the PDO is still super negative, so that may hold weight going further into the Winter, but I do like this Pacific pattern for the next 15 days. 

2013 wasn't just a cold winter, it was a brutally cold winter. Combined with the heavy snow it was historic here. That's why when I see all the main analogs constantly mentioned here, even though some of them are respectable winters and not all mild, 2013-14 sticks out like a beautifully sore thumb.