2024-2025 La Nina

[so_whats_happening]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks. Anyone have the link to those MJO composite maps? All I have are the ones from the American wx site. Thanks.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Cold beginning of December is pretty much locked at this point. The question now is whether any part of the Eastern US can capitalize on this winter.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Sometimes those composites work and other times the JMA are more reliable. Many of the MeteoNetwork composites are lower sample size. I translated the site to show the color codes and the degree of reliability.
 

MJO Tables - MeteoNetwork

Medium-high reliability

Medium-low reliability

Low reliability

Plotting not available due to lack of data

I like the JMA since each composite is based on a big sample size from 60 to 100 dates. Sample size can often be an issue with MJO composites so you need to see which work better in real time and then try to extrapolate out where the MJO is going and whether it’s having a strong enough effect. This current pattern forecast for late November is more of a +AAM with blocking near the Aleutians and Baffin Island. So the MJO may still be running in the background but not dominating the pattern. We’ll have to wait until early December to determine whether the +AAM dominates or we get a warmer MJO 5-7 influence. Another possibility would be an odd combination of both almost like wave interference.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/composite.html

 

High AAM pattern for late November

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Cold beginning of December is pretty much locked at this point. The question now is whether any part of the Eastern US can capitalize on this winter.

Yea, I don't think the cold to begin December should be a suprise to anyone, as there have been hints for awhile now. What happens during the balance of the month is the question.

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't think the cold to begin December should be a suprise to anyone, as there have been hints for awhile now. What happens during the balance of the month is the question.

WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid…..

@MJO812”locking in for the winter”. Really dangerous making definite proclamations like that. Sets them up to look really ridiculous 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid…..

I remember last winter I fell for long range guidance and started to think December may be colder than I had originally thought....not that it can't happen this season, but the moral of the story is that in this modern climate, one should be skeptical of sustained cold until you see the whites of the weenie.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid…..

It's not hype when all the indications show that happening.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not hype when all the indications show that happening.

Locking in for winter???

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't think the cold to begin December should be a suprise to anyone, as there have been hints for awhile now. What happens during the balance of the month is the question.

Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago.

He was probably breaking ballz.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Locking in for winter???

No

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid…..

@MJO812”locking in for the winter”. Really dangerous making definite proclamations like that. Sets them up to look really ridiculous 

I can't stand hype either way, but it's no different than some of the Twitter stuff you share of the opposite extreme. 

Though honestly anyone who uses Twitter as their weather source are just like the people who use their phones AI forecast graphics as their main weather source. They'll forget once it changes the next day.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He was probably breaking ballz.

Lol I was joking as he is a known troll. He will disappear until warmth surfaces and then he will be back. I may occasionally comment on snowman or bluewave for their warm bias, but at least they add to the discussion. Huge difference between having a warm (or cold) bias and just being a troll.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He was probably breaking ballz.

If all those  times of predicting record warmth by him is intended to break ballz, sorry, there ain't any ballz left in here to break.

[michsnowfreak]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember last winter I fell for long range guidance and started to think December may be cold....not that it can't happen this season, but the moral of the story is that in this modern climate, one should be skeptical of sustained cold until you see the whites of the weenie.

Wow my memory is like steel when it comes to actual past weather, but like mush when it comes to what models predicted lol. I honestly do not remember cold being forecast last December. Usually there are several different routes we can take for a respectable winter if it won't be great, but strong ninos are the ONE and only scenario i go into winter cringing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol I was joking as he is a known troll. He will disappear until warmth surfaces and then he will be back. I may occasionally comment on snowman or bluewave for their warm bias, but at least they add to the discussion. Huge difference between having a warm (or cold) bias and just being a troll.

Omega knows his stuff, too tbh....the most effective trollls are the ones who know their stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If all those  times of predicting record warmth by him is intended to break ballz, sorry, there ain't any ballz left in here to break.

I was referring to early December...that's it. All of the other times the past couple of years he has been right.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid…..

@MJO812”locking in for the winter”. Really dangerous making definite proclamations like that. Sets them up to look really ridiculous 

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember last winter I fell for long range guidance and started to think December may be colder than I had originally thought....not that it can't happen this season, but the moral of the story is that in this modern climate, one should be skeptical of sustained cold until you see the whites of the weenie.

 

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not hype when all the indications show that happening.

 

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Locking in for winter???

 

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No

 

35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Idk qgomega promised a RECORD WARM start to December just a few days ago.

 

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He was probably breaking ballz.

It takes a sincere courage to be a dedicated weenie on the coastal plain. As always ….

[40/70 Benchmark]

My area on the CP is usually pretty palatable...even last season, as dreadful as that was, I still ended up well over 30".

[brooklynwx99]

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

NG is noting the overall colder GEFS/EPS so far today with it up a whopping 7%! Today’s high is the highest since way back in January!

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

Cue @bluewavewithin an hour or two to post some vp plots of the south Pacific and explain why winter will be over by 12/6.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG is noting the overall colder GEFS/EPS so far today with it up a whopping 7%! Today’s high is the highest since way back in January!

@Stormchaserchuck1should find that interesting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All kidding aside, first crucial inflection point this winter will be whether or not that pattern is fleeting or has staying power.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cue @bluewavewithin an hour or two to post some vp plots of the south Pacific and explain why winter will be over by 12/6.

If we can hold that day 11 snapshot, then it would be a blend of December 2017 and 2009. It will be interesting to see how long we can sustain that pattern since the MJO indicator in October that I discussed was going for a mismatch in December like we saw in 2020, 2017, and 2010. But since this La Niña was weaker than those years it was uncertain how well it would work. The WWB and AAM rise and ENSO warming we just saw may have been related to the very amplified MJO 5 wave that we saw in October. Still too early to tell how long that day 10 pattern lasts but we should know one way or another by the first week of December. We’ll know at that point if the pattern has staying power or it switches back to something more Niña-like after week 1. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

If we can hold that day 11 snapshot, then it would be a blend of December 2017 and 2009. It will be interesting to see how long we can sustain that pattern since the MJO indicator in October that I discussed was going for a mismatch in December like we saw in 2020, 2017, and 2010. But since this La Niña was weaker than those years it was uncertain how well it would work. The WWB and AAM rise we just saw may have been related to the very amplified MJO 5 wave that we saw in October. Still too early to tell how long that day 10 pattern lasts but we should know one way or another by the first week of December. We’ll know at that point if the pattern has staying power or it switches back to something more Niña-looking after week 1. 
 

 

Yea, I totally agree with you....just some light-hearted ribbing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I expected a mismatch period, but not one the magnitude of 2017 and 2020, which also encompassed December...I bit on a more tempered version like Jan 2022. 

We'll see. 2020 was one of the elite QBO analogs I selected, so there is that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

storm vista is only a couple minutes faster pivotal is out already to

This would be as large of a mismatch as seeing a guy from these forums with a gal under his arm.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I totally agree with you....just some light-hearted ribbing.

Even NOAA isn’t sure of what’s going on as this WWB and ENSO warming wasn’t forecast by any of the models along with the sudden jump in global temperatures starting back in 2023.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2452742-the-mystery-of-the-missing-la-nina-continues-and-we-dont-know-why/#:~:text=While sea surface temperatures in,by the end of November.

An expected shift to cool La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean has been delayed again. Forecasters now project only a weak event to emerge by the end of November, which is likely to limit the cooling influence of the climate pattern on global average temperatures.

“I do not know why it has slowed down,” says Michelle L’Heureux at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “If someone did, we might have been able to predict it.”

 

[Allsnow]