2024-2025 La Nina

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I disagree. I see the first third of December being cool, and I think there's a chance of a snow event on Dec 4 or 5. The second third looks warm, and I think it will be back to cool again the final third. (I go to the Eagles game on Dec. 29. I don't think this one will be a torch like the first week of January 2023.)

January is likely to be very warm. As I've said all along, the winter comes down to February. I think that final month of winter looks the most promising, but it's way too early to tell.

[michsnowfreak]

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

Correct. Things do not look good at all, all the fall indicators looked bad. It has been very very warm so far this November, and it has also been very dry. I was holding out a glimmer of hope that the long range guidance had a clue with the shift to a -EPO pattern, but that is already looking transient. 3 weeks of warmth, a week of cold and then December starts and right back to warm.  If that 3 weeks warm 1 week cold rinse and repeat pattern continues into the winter, there is no realistic hope for winter prospects in the East. You need at least a 2 week warm/2 week cold, otherwise you are relying on getting lucky in a bad pattern which is not sustainable. I’m not pulling the plug yet, too early but if I don’t see any signs of sustained cold in the next 2 weeks in the medium range I am out on this winter.

You seem to be quite knowledgeable, but honestly, it seems crazy to me to pull the plug on an entire winter on the east coast if you don't see sustained cold in November. It just doesn't make sense. You talk about 16-17 frequently...well there was plenty of cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas. How did the rest of that winter work out?

And also I do not see any signs of record warmth starting December.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I disagree. I see the first third of December being cool, and I think there's a chance of a snow event on Dec 4 or 5. The second third looks warm, and I think it will be back to cool again the final third. (I go to the Eagles game on Dec. 29. I don't think this one will be a torch like the first week of January 2023.)

January is likely to be very warm. As I've said all along, the winter comes down to February. I think that final month of winter looks the most promising, but it's way too early to tell.

I disagree on January. I'm really liking January here, and while it will probably be somewhat milder than normal on the east coast it's probably your best winter month this season. I think @40/70 Benchmarkalso thinks Jan will be be your best month. A few months ago I thought Dec might be great and Jan would suck (going by some previous nina years) but I've completely flipped recently. Dec looks to have it's chances but should be the least favorable of the 3 winter months. Cfs and some other models have been steadfast on western Canada just loaded with cold by January. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Regarding the bolded:

-2004,5,6 was Nino, Niña, Nino

-1963,4,5 was the same

-1923,4,5 “ “

-1902,3,4 “ “

-1885,6,7 “ “

-Since 1851 there were 19 cases of Nino to Niña. Out of these 19, 5 ended up Nino to Niña to Nino.

-So, they’re not as rare as one might think.

-Last 3 runs of CANSIPS have been showing Modoki Nino next summer fwiw.

You have to examine the magnitudes to understand the rarity. There were no El Niños this soon after a +2.0 or greater ONI event like we had last winter. Think 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 and 65-66. None of those events had a follow up El Niño only 2 years later. That’s why it would be extremely rare for us to go back to El Niño so soon unless the unprecedented global temperature rise last 17 months is signaling some type of new climate shift. But it’s way to early to know the state of the ENSO next winter since in the past another La Niña has been favored.

[qg_omega]

This sums up last winter

[brooklynwx99]

are we really posting 300 hour OP runs in the Niña thread

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A trough near Japan is warm in the East during December if there is a strong Aleutian Ridge. 

Ensembles showing the trough over Japan are showing a trough over the east like the 0z and 6z Gefs, 0z Geps, and 0z Eps. I am referring to the end of their runs. 

[George001]

46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You seem to be quite knowledgeable, but honestly, it seems crazy to me to pull the plug on an entire winter on the east coast if you don't see sustained cold in November. It just doesn't make sense. You talk about 16-17 frequently...well there was plenty of cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas. How did the rest of that winter work out?

And also I do not see any signs of record warmth starting December.

That’s why I’m holding off for now despite things not looking good. If it’s warm the next 2 weeks but there are signs of sustained cold in the medium and long range on guidance, that’s fine. But I don’t like seeing the MJO spending so much time is phases 4-6, and most years with a similar temp and precip profile in November have gone on to be bad winters. That doesn’t mean this winter will be bad, but warmth in November and December is never a good sign. I want to see signs of a 2 week warm/ 2 week cold split rather than a 3 week warm/ 1 week cold split. The former isn’t going to lead to an amazing winter, but my area would be in the game. The latter scenario is game over. Fair point about 16-17 though. Things looked somewhat promising early and then that winter went to shit, while 12-13 was the opposite (torch Dec-Jan, cold and snowy Feb-Mar).

Just to be clear, I’m not giving up on the possibility of a near average snow season even if we go down the warmer analog path. 2016-2017 was actually an above average snow winter for my area, but the snowpack retention was awful and it was +5 AN temps, so I consider that to be a F winter anyways.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Record warmth looks likely to start December 

 

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Correct. Things do not look good at all, all the fall indicators looked bad. It has been very very warm so far this November, and it has also been very dry. I was holding out a glimmer of hope that the long range guidance had a clue with the shift to a -EPO pattern, but that is already looking transient. 3 weeks of warmth, a week of cold and then December starts and right back to warm.  If that 3 weeks warm 1 week cold rinse and repeat pattern continues into the winter, there is no realistic hope for winter prospects in the East. You need at least a 2 week warm/2 week cold, otherwise you are relying on getting lucky in a bad pattern which is not sustainable. I’m not pulling the plug yet, too early but if I don’t see any signs of sustained cold in the next 2 weeks in the medium range I am out on this winter.

 

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This sums up last winter

Did either of you bother to look at ensembles for December 1st, the "start of December? " Apparently not. But it explains why qg is 5 posted. Where exactly is the record warmth?

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to examine the magnitudes to understand the rarity. There were no El Niños this soon after a +2.0 or greater ONI event like we had last winter. Think 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 and 65-66. None of those events had a follow up El Niño only 2 years later. That’s why it would be extremely rare for us to go back to El Niño so soon unless the unprecedented global temperature rise last 17 months is signaling some type of new climate shift. But it’s way to early to know the state of the ENSO next winter since in the past another La Niña has been favored.

1. On RONI basis, which is much more telling of late, 2023 peaked at only +1.50 vs 2015-6 at +2.37, 1997-8 at +2.38, 1982-3 at +2.53, 1972-3 at +2.27, and 1965-6 at +2.04. So, on that basis, 2023 doesn’t belong with the other 5.

2. Per RONI 1963-4 peaked at +1.25, not that much weaker than 2023, and went Nino, Niña, Nino.

3. Per Webb, 1902-3 peaked a bit stronger than 2023 (+1.8) and went Nino, Niña, Nino.

4. Per Webb 1885-6 peaked at +1.3, not that much weaker than 2023 and went Nino, Niña, Nino.

 So, I maintain that a Nino in 2025-6 wouldn’t be an all that rare occurrence. I think the previously stated rareness is being overblown.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

 

Did either of you bother to look at ensembles for December 1st, the "start of December? " Apparently not. But it explains why qg is 5 posted. Where exactly is the record warmth?

I was referring to the last extended run as well as MJO forecast of another track through phases 4-6. In that run it was one week of BN temps during the first week of December before flipping warm the next 2 weeks until the run ends. The warm periods being longer than the cold periods is bad news. And it’s difficult to be optimistic when there really hasn’t been any cold during the fall.

[mitchnick]

Just now, bluewave said:

The Euro shifted to a stronger MJO 2-3-4 next few weeks like the GFS and then we’ll see where we are at the start of December.

I was going to post on this. Looks like they are going toward a compromise of the 2 camps imho. It's fluid at this point, so, like I said, we need a few days. I would note that the Gefs extended has a faster wave than the last few days getting into Phase 7 by the 16th of December. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I know we are just talking about model snapshots at 360 which are tough to extrapolate from for more than a few days if that pattern actually verifies. So these are all just hypotheticals. But if we do get a trough near Japan in conjunction with a ridge axis near the Aleutians, then we would need a strong -AO block to anchor the trough in the East for more than just a few days. Would also need the MJO to peak in 2-3-4 and then weaken in 4-7 to allow a La Niña +PNA mismatch pattern for December. It’s really tough to get the specific December pattern based of of mid-November model forecasts. This is the time of year there can be a ton of model flux so we are probably better off just waiting two weeks until things come into better focus. 

Pretty much agree wrt modeling. It can go to hell fast. But at this time of year it's a matter of being optimistic or pessimistic.  To my surprise, I'm not seeing grounds for pessimism...yet. So I'll enjoy it like a good weenie.  Lol

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

 

 

Did either of you bother to look at ensembles for December 1st, the "start of December? " Apparently not. But it explains why qg is 5 posted. Where exactly is the record warmth?

Insane to look at anomalies, they will be wrong when the pattern verifies

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Insane to look at anomalies, they will be wrong when the pattern verifies

Lol. The map you posted was an operational GFS at 288 the end of November, not the start of December. 

12z operational already different.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. The map you posted was an operational GFS at 288 the end of November, not the start of December. 

12z operational already different.

why are you even bothering with him

[snowman19]

The record drought and warmth since August aside for a minute. Here is another warning sign for winter:

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why are you even bothering with him

Plenty of lurkers who may not know better.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. On RONI basis, which is much more telling of late, 2023 peaked at only +1.50 vs 2015-6 at +2.37, 1997-8 at +2.38, 1982-3 at +2.53, 1972-3 at +2.27, and 1965-6 at +2.04. So, on that basis, 2023 doesn’t belong with the other 5.

2. Per RONI 1963-4 peaked at +1.25, not that much weaker than 2023, and went Nino, Niña, Nino.

3. Per Webb, 1902-3 peaked a bit stronger than 2023 (+1.8) and went Nino, Niña, Nino.

4. Per Webb 1885-6 peaked at +1.3, not that much weaker than 2023 and went Nino, Niña, Nino.

 So, I maintain that a Nino in 2025-6 wouldn’t be an all that rare occurrence. I think the previously stated rareness is being overblown.

RONI didn’t work last winter since the warmth greatly exceeded all previous super El Niños globally and nationally which had significantly higher ONI and RONI values. 

 

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Insane to look at anomalies, they will be wrong when the pattern verifies

Notable 5 poster thinks this h5 pattern will produce a record warm start to December for the CONUS

[BarryStantonGBP]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I think 2025 will be more of a rise in the PDO, rather than an el nino formation, kind of like 2013. I think the ENSO in 2025-26 will be near neutral like 2013-14 or 2014-15. I think the el nino is more likely to happen in either 2026-27 or even 2027-28. We're probably getting ready to transition from a secular -PDO period to a secular +PDO period (like in the late 70s).

I made a thread on the possible 2025 el Nino, but what does a +PDO mean?

[BarryStantonGBP]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Regarding the bolded:

-2004,5,6 was Nino, Niña, Nino

-1963,4,5 was the same

-1923,4,5 “ “

-1902,3,4 “ “

-1885,6,7 “ “

-Since 1851 there were 19 cases of Nino to Niña. Out of these 19, 5 ended up Nino to Niña to Nino.

-So, they’re not as rare as one might think.

-Last 3 runs of CANSIPS have been showing Modoki Nino next summer fwiw.

What would CP Nino mean for the atlantic come September?

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I made a thread on the possible 2025 el Nino, but what does a +PDO mean?

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/

That is, for hurricane season.

[George001]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I disagree. I see the first third of December being cool, and I think there's a chance of a snow event on Dec 4 or 5. The second third looks warm, and I think it will be back to cool again the final third. (I go to the Eagles game on Dec. 29. I don't think this one will be a torch like the first week of January 2023.)

January is likely to be very warm. As I've said all along, the winter comes down to February. I think that final month of winter looks the most promising, but it's way too early to tell.

March is a winter month 

[George001]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I know we are just talking about model snapshots at 360 which are tough to extrapolate from for more than a few days if that pattern actually verifies. So these are all just hypotheticals. But if we do get a trough near Japan in conjunction with a ridge axis near the Aleutians, then we would need a strong -AO block to anchor the trough in the East for more than just a few days. Would also need the MJO to peak in 2-3-4 and then weaken in 4-7 to allow a La Niña +PNA mismatch pattern for December. It’s really tough to get the specific December pattern based of of mid-November model forecasts. This is the time of year there can be a ton of model flux so we are probably better off just waiting two weeks until things come into better focus. 

My issue with the relying on a mismatch pattern inside a large scale unfavorable base state is it doesn’t last. Best case scenario is a 2020-2021 or 2021-2022 winter (depending on where you live), both of which had longer unfavorable periods than favorable ones. 20-21/21-22 just doesn’t move the needle. Both winters finished well AN temp wise and had limited snowpack retention. Ultimately the only real hope for a real old school New England winter (like 13-14/10-11/08-09) is a large scale change in the base state. I realize that’s fairly unlikely, but are there any cold ENSO winters you can think of that had this happen mid winter? Only one I can think of is 12-13, which torched both Dec and Jan and then was a cold and snowy Feb-Mar. I guess 14-15 but the background state was favorable going in, this is a completely different situation so I don’t see that as a possible analog even for best case scenario.

[George001]

14-15 was pretty much the exact opposite situation. Despite ultimately being a cold and snowy winter, we had a torch December and the first half of Jan was warm too. Then we had a frigid rest of winter (2.5 months of BN temps, 1.5 months of AN). So really the torch Dec-first half of Jan was the mismatch within a large scale favorable base state (weak modoki Nino, raging +PDO). 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

What would CP Nino mean for the atlantic come September?

 In general terms El Niño is correlated with less ACE than non-Nino. But if it’s weak, there’s typically less of a reduction. Furthermore, this is only a tendency. For example, look at 2023 for a major exception due to record high Atlantic SSTs.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 In general terms El Niño is correlated with less ACE than non-Nino. But if it’s weak, there’s typically less of a reduction. Furthermore, this is only a tendency. For example, look at 2023 for a major exception due to record high Atlantic SSTs.

Could it be like 2004

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Could it be like 2004

Yes, 2004 and 1969 were both weak El Niño with active Atlantic hurricane seasons.