2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The recent past is always prologue to the future when weather and climate is involved. So understanding the current conditions helps frame the range of possibilities going forward.  Understanding and monitoring model biases also improves the success. I understand GW is a triggering topic for some on these forums since it challenges the past traditionally colder winter patterns from an earlier era. But you have to realize that for everyone who would like to go back to the colder era, there are many outside this forum who like the lower winter heating bills they have enjoyed over the last 9 seasons relative to what they would have been if it was much colder.

All one has to do is look at the huge warming of the Indian Ocean (and -IOD development) over the last month. That’s the elephant in the room right now. The overall La Niña, -PDO atmospheric background state is NOT going to change in a big way with that setup. It’s just going to potentiate the MJO 4-6 tropical forcing and standing wave regardless of whether the region 3.4 ONI is cold-neutral or weak La Niña this winter. Some of us overlooked that fact last winter and instead decided to believe the long range weeklies and monthlies and it was a very huge mistake. Fatal error and resulted in really bad busts

[snowman19]

The other mistake people are making is believing the EC stratospheric forecasts weakening the SPV. There is literally nothing to support that right now through the tail end of this month. The EC consistently (and incorrectly) tried the exact same thing last November and was dead wrong. You have big troughs where there should be ridges forcing upward flux and warming into the stratosphere to perturb the SPV. It’s 180 degrees the exact opposite of what you want to see if you are looking for a weakening SPV

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The other mistake people are making is believing the EC stratospheric forecasts weakening the SPV. There is literally nothing to support that right now through the tail end of this month. The EC consistently (and incorrectly) tried the exact same thing last November and was dead wrong. You have big troughs where there should be ridges forcing upward flux and warming into the stratosphere to perturb the SPV. It’s 180 degrees the exact opposite of what you want to see if you are looking for a weakening SPV
 

I guess we'll see whether it's the Gefs or Eps that's right. It'll be nice to know which one has the hot hand for future reference. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I guess we'll see whether it's the Gefs or Eps that's right. It'll be nice to know which one has the hot hand for future reference. 

Have you checked ENSO for August 2025?

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

All one has to do is look at the huge warming of the Indian Ocean (and -IOD development) over the last month. That’s the elephant in the room right now. The overall La Niña, -PDO atmospheric background state is NOT going to change in a big way with that setup. It’s just going to potentiate the MJO 4-6 tropical forcing and standing wave regardless of whether the region 3.4 ONI is cold-neutral or weak La Niña this winter. Some of us overlooked that fact last winter and instead decided to believe the long range weeklies and monthlies and it was a very huge mistake. Fatal error and resulted in really bad busts

Yeah, we have had a solid -IOD response this fall.

 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The other mistake people are making is believing the EC stratospheric forecasts weakening the SPV. There is literally nothing to support that right now through the tail end of this month. The EC consistently (and incorrectly) tried the exact same thing last November and was dead wrong. You have big troughs where there should be ridges forcing upward flux and warming into the stratosphere to perturb the SPV. It’s 180 degrees the exact opposite of what you want to see if you are looking for a weakening SPV
 

 The image below is the Nov 10th, 2023, Euro Weeklies SPV prog through Dec 25th, whose mean had a strong SPV and didn’t have it going weaker than normal til mid Dec. Looking back at the many I saved, they all had a strong SPV for Nov.

 

 Then look what happened with the 11/22/23 run’s mean, which while still having a strong SPV in Nov suddenly had a weak SPV for 12/6/23 through 1/6/24. The strong Nov SPV verified quite well. Dec actually ended up with a fairly weak SPV much of the month (so not too far off) but with no major SSW:

 Here’s actual for Nov-Dec 2023: Strong Nov SPV (well predicted) and a bit weaker than the ~32 climo wind in Dec with no SSW (verified pretty well with actual avg wind speed of ~27 vs many EW runs, including the one above, at ~25):

 

 Yesterday’s EW mean has a near normal rest of Nov SPV averaging ~31, which is much weaker than Nov 11-30, 2023’s ~38. Then it has a very slightly BN Dec of ~30 (vs climo of ~32). If this EW were to verify well, we’d end up with a significantly weaker SPV in Nov and somewhat stronger in Dec in 2024 vs 2023:

[bluewave]

On 11/11/2024 at 1:42 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

5880dm in Ireland tomorrow!

-NAO holds through hr384 on 12z GEFS. The 10mb level is cold, so this is a bit of an anomaly.  I was thinking because of how extreme the +NAO has been this year, it would have to flip around a little bit before the Winter, if the Winter is to be a +nao. But NAO in November does have a +correlation with the Winter at about 55%. 

All-time record warmth for such a high latitude during this time of year. It’s continuation of the AO and NAO volatility which has become the new normal. The record low pressures with the extreme +NAO vortex there over the summer produced their coldest summer in 30 years. 
 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

We’ve been hearing that the solar cycle has peaked since July and those claims have obviously been completely wrong. We won’t know if November is actually the peak for several months

Just to add, while it’s certainly possible that the solar cycle peaks this month, you typically don’t see this level of CME activity as a solar cycle is just about to start descending. Again, it will take months to know for sure if this is actually the peak happening right now

[GaWx]

Has 3.4 already hit its low? The following 4 show that we’re now a good bit warmer than the ~Sep 20th low:

OISST:

CRW:

 

CDAS:

Buoys: significantly warmer than coolest, especially 130-165W:

 

Supporting this idea that the coldest may be done is the OHC:

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The recent past is always prologue to the future when weather and climate is involved. So understanding the current conditions helps frame the range of possibilities going forward.  Understanding and monitoring model biases also improves the success. I understand GW is a triggering topic for some on these forums since it challenges the past traditionally colder winter patterns from an earlier era. But you have to realize that for everyone who would like to go back to the colder era, there are many outside this forum who like the lower winter heating bills they have enjoyed over the last 9 seasons relative to what they would have been if it was much colder.

I understand that completely, but it's just another way odds favor a warmer than normal winter in the east. How many times and ways does it have to be said since no one in this forum is arguing otherwise?  Moreover, unless you or anyone else can use one of these "tools" to predict with accuracy exact temps, snowfall, and/or precip in a particular location, I'm serious when I ask...what's the use all things considered? Consensus seasonal modeling has pretty much been months ahead of anybody when you think about it. Going against consensus and being right is what has true value imho.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Has 3.4 already hit its low? The following 4 show that we’re now a good bit warmer than the ~Sep 20th low:

OISST:

CRW:

 

CDAS:

Buoys: significantly warmer than coolest, especially 130-165W:

 

Supporting this idea that the coldest may be done is the OHC:

Dare I say, could 1978-79 be a good analog? Like this year, that was a failed la nina near a solar max and a dry fall for most of the Eastern Time Zone. Even the PDO (though not perfect) isn't the worst match, with it being a slight -PDO.

Spoiler

I'm not saying the bottom will drop out temperaturewise like February 1979, but I can see a colder and snowier than average February.

 

[George001]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I understand that completely, but it's just another way odds favor a warmer than normal winter in the east. How many times and ways does it have to be said since no one in this forum is arguing otherwise?  Moreover, unless you or anyone else can use one of these "tools" to predict with accuracy exact temps, snowfall, and/or precip in a particular location, I'm serious when I ask...what's the use all things considered? Consensus seasonal modeling has pretty much been months ahead of anybody when you think about it. Going against consensus and being right is what has true value imho.

It’s good to look for possible reasons why the consensus is wrong, but looking at it objectively things don’t look great for the east coast this winter. While it certainly COULD be a colder than normal winter with lots of snow, given the fall pattern (especially what we have seen in November so far) and background state the probability is skewed heavily in favor of AN temps and BN snow for the east this coming winter. There are a bunch of valuable tools and methods used by members of this forum that support this, and that is an incredibly valuable thing whether or not they show what we want to see. I’m looking for reasons why the consensus could be wrong too, but it’s important to keep in mind that the consensus is a higher probability outcome. There is absolutely nothing wrong with going against the consensus, but you need a good reason to do so and  it is important not to let your analysis be clouded by bias (Something I struggle with myself, though I do feel like I have improved a lot over the past couple of years in this area).

[George001]

What I will say is while the expected outcome for this winter is AN temps and BN snow, in my opinion this winter has more “upside” than the last. The most prohibitive ENSO state for AN snowfall in New England (especially ski areas) is a potent Nino. When you combine that with a -PDO, things look even worse. Even the absolute best analog last year gave my area 100-110% of average snowfall with normal to slightly above normal temps (57-58). But…… when you adjust for climate change all of a sudden that analog looks really unfavorable for east coast snow. The best case analog this year (13-14) had more like 140-150% of normal snow with well BN temps. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Dare I say, could 1978-79 be a good analog? Like this year, that was a failed la nina near a solar max and a dry fall for most of the Eastern Time Zone. Even the PDO (though not perfect) isn't the worst match, with it being a slight -PDO.

  Reveal hidden contents

I'm not saying the bottom will drop out temperaturewise like February 1979, but I can see a colder and snowier than average February.

 

Good catch but, noones going to buy into that as even a remote possibility due to the fact it went from extremely mild November to a gradual turn colder through December and a cold and snowy Eastern US January through mid March and in a different Climate Era. I wonder what the QBO and IOD was then ?..

Of course CC would be the greatest argument against such an outcome now.

[mitchnick]

Don't look now @snowman19, but Webb is calling for an east based Nina. Remember, I'm just the messenger! Lol

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1856461613316067383?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1856461613316067383|twgr^ec37157f90ea148700875b65bc98bd9fe3904e50|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1856461613316067383%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't look now @snowman19, but Webb is calling for an east based Nina. Remember, I'm just the messenger! Lol

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1856461613316067383?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1856461613316067383|twgr^ec37157f90ea148700875b65bc98bd9fe3904e50|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1856461613316067383%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

This part struck me "These kind of winters have a reputation for bucking the prototype Nina evolution (I.e oftentimes Jan-Feb is colder than Dec in these years)". Most seasonal models (regardless of their overall departures) have shown Dec as the mildest of the 3 winter months for quite a while now. Way back when we first started talking Nina I was looking at December as being the "star" month for a change, as it happens so often in a Nina. But clearly that would go against most trends as of now.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Dare I say, could 1978-79 be a good analog? Like this year, that was a failed la nina near a solar max and a dry fall for most of the Eastern Time Zone. Even the PDO (though not perfect) isn't the worst match, with it being a slight -PDO.

  Reveal hidden contents

I'm not saying the bottom will drop out temperaturewise like February 1979, but I can see a colder and snowier than average February.

 

In terms of RONI, 1978 ASO was at -0.19 compared to 2024’s -0.76. So RONI is much lower in 2024. Also, 2024’s MEI, which was already down to -0.7 in JA, is much lower than 1978, which was still up at +.0.5 in JA and never got lower than +0.2.

 So, in terms of RONI and MEI, 2024 and 1978 aren’t close.

 

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This part struck me "These kind of winters have a reputation for bucking the prototype Nina evolution (I.e oftentimes Jan-Feb is colder than Dec in these years)". Most seasonal models (regardless of their overall departures) have shown Dec as the mildest of the 3 winter months for quite a while now. Way back when we first started talking Nina I was looking at December as being the "star" month for a change, as it happens so often in a Nina. But clearly that would go against most trends as of now.

I think it was Raindance that showed a cold Nino 4 usually has a cold December followed by a flip going into January while a cold 1&2 usually has December as the mildest month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This part struck me "These kind of winters have a reputation for bucking the prototype Nina evolution (I.e oftentimes Jan-Feb is colder than Dec in these years)". Most seasonal models (regardless of their overall departures) have shown Dec as the mildest of the 3 winter months for quite a while now. Way back when we first started talking Nina I was looking at December as being the "star" month for a change, as it happens so often in a Nina. But clearly that would go against most trends as of now.

Regardless of what La Niña does, I agree on that this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Very nice, detailed work!

[GaWx]

 Euro ens mean through day 14 with pop. wted US HDDs on left (0Z yellow, 12Z purple): BN HDDs 11/16-20, NN 11/21-26; compare this to the last time I posted this, when the highest any day’s HDD got was slightly BN and with most days with solidly BN HDDs.
 

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I understand that completely, but it's just another way odds favor a warmer than normal winter in the east. How many times and ways does it have to be said since no one in this forum is arguing otherwise?  Moreover, unless you or anyone else can use one of these "tools" to predict with accuracy exact temps, snowfall, and/or precip in a particular location, I'm serious when I ask...what's the use all things considered? Consensus seasonal modeling has pretty much been months ahead of anybody when you think about it. Going against consensus and being right is what has true value imho.

This winter is yet to occur so I will use last few winters as an example. I was discussing these tools back during the spring of 2023 when the El Niño was developing. My key point was that the record WPAC warm pool would shift the forcing further west than usual and add a La Niña component to the winter forecast with more of a Eastern Ridge than usual for an El Niño. And the seasonal forecasts at the time would be too cool. Both of these ideas worked out with the lack of a Nino Trough near the East Coast that the models were forecasting. We don’t expect anyone to forecast the temperature departures exactly in October and November for the winter. But the value comes from identifying the model biases and identifying where the errors could be. So by later last November I was identifying how the medium and long range models were underestimating the forcing taking shape near the Maritime Continent and this would lead to a warmer forecast than they were showing for December. But it took until the first week of December to hone in on the exact departures going over +10 where the strongest 500 mb ridge set up over Southern Canada. This is why monthly or seasonal forecasts issued in October and November don’t contain monthly or seasonal +10 departures which have been occurring more frequently. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This winter is yet to occur so I will use last few winters as an example. I was discussing these tools back during the spring of 2023 when the El Niño was developing. My key point was that the record WPAC warm pool would shift the forcing further west than usual and add a La Niña component to the winter forecast with more of a Eastern Ridge than usual for an El Niño. And the seasonal forecasts at the time would be too cool. Both of these ideas worked out with the lack of a Nino Trough near the East Coast that the models were forecasting. We don’t expect anyone to forecast the temperature departures exactly in October and November for the winter. But the value comes from identifying the model biases and identifying where the errors could be. So by later last November I was identifying how the medium and long range models were underestimating the forcing taking shape near the Maritime Continent and this would lead to a warmer forecast than they were showing for December. But it took until the first week of December to hone in on the exact departures going over +10 where the strongest 500 mb ridge set up over Southern Canada. This is why monthly or seasonal forecasts issued in October and November don’t contain monthly or seasonal +10 departures which have been occurring more frequently. 

Last question because it's obvious I'm beating a dead horse. Is +10 for the winter your forecast?

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last question because it's obvious I'm beating a dead horse. Is +10 for the winter your forecast?

We will have to wait until the first week of December to get an idea of what the December departures will turn out to be. There are a few indicators I will be monitoring over the next 3 weeks or so which will help to narrow things down a bit. As I said, you can’t issue a +10 or greater forecast so early in the game. Every winter since 15-16 had at least one +10 month with the exception of the 20-21 mismatch. 
 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

[michsnowfreak]

58 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last question because it's obvious I'm beating a dead horse. Is +10 for the winter your forecast?

 

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will have to wait until the first week of December to get an idea of what the December departures will turn out to be. There are a few indicators I will be monitoring over the next 3 weeks or so which will help to narrow things down a bit. As I said, you can’t issue a +10 or greater forecast so early in the game. Every winter since 15-16 had at least one +10 month with the exception of the 20-21 mismatch. 
 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

If I'm understanding the question from @mitchnick, I think he's asking if you forecast a DJF departure of +10, not just if any one location somewhere had a +10 month. 

I'm no forecaster but I personally think for most (especially my area/Great Lakes) there will be one month that's a real dud and one month that's a lot of fun. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will have to wait until the first week of December to get an idea of what the December departures will turn out to be. There are a few indicators I will be monitoring over the next 3 weeks or so which will help to narrow things down a bit. As I said, you can’t issue a +10 or greater forecast so early in the game. Every winter since 15-16 had at least one +10 month with the exception of the 20-21 mismatch. 
 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

I ended up going +3 to +5 in Dec for the mid Atl and NE...hopefully I don't end up too cool....the potential translation of the MJO into phase 6 beyond mid month and towards the holiday is what kept me from really going bonkers. 

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I ended up going +3 to +5 in Dec for the mid Atl and NE...hopefully I don't end up too cool....the potential translation of the MJO into phase 6 beyond mid month and towards the holiday is what kept me from really going bonkers. 

I won't make a call on NE because I  have no business in doing that (lol), but I'm really torn for the MA between a best case of +1 and a worst case of +4. I  say +1 because Eps weeklies have been coming down to a +.5-+1C of late. Typically, we'd see a legit trend to warmer if the warmer was in store. Otoh, it might just be that the weeklies are signaling a slightly AN surrounded by a solid AN. The counter to that is that the GEFS, EPS & GEPS are all pointing to a N to slightly BN to start to December. Monthly seasonal forecasts haven't changed much with the Cfs either. In the end, the safe bet imho would be +2-4F in the MA, with a +1-2 still on the table for some areas.

[MJO812]

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mitchnick posted this earlier but the tweet didn't imbed.