2024-2025 La Nina

[PhiEaglesfan712]

 

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Warm water is showing up in the western-subsurface, which is catching up to what the CPC has shown for a little while

Starting to lower the La Nina chances for next year. 

The subsurface is also Neutral.. so it will be interesting to see if a La Nina-Pacific pattern happens this Winter. As per the subsurface, it's not as much of a blowout as you would think.  Since 1998, the Hadley Cell has been La Nina-like in Neutral times though. 

It's looking like 2025-26 is going to have a 2013-14 setup. Should I start getting my hopes up or is it too early?

[40/70 Benchmark]

The issue I see is the trades are west, while the subsurface is east.....gonna need them to overlap a bit on the western periphery of 3.4.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Subsurface is neutral over the western half, which means it won't go Modoki....-1 to -2C over the eastern half.

 

 

 

It changes fast though.. all we need is 1 Kelvin Wave in the Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It's looking like 2025-26 is going to have a 2013-14 setup. Should I start getting my hopes up or is it too early?

Maybe a little early, but we do have data suggesting it could be an El Nino 3-4 Winters from now.  Sometimes they happen sooner than the data suggests. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It changes fast though.. all we need is 1 Kelvin Wave in the Winter

No, its very precarious...I agree. Toughest ENSO call in the 11 years I have been at this.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, its very precarious...I agree. Toughest ENSO call in the 11 years I have been at this.

It's Nov 11th, and Nino 3.4 is -0.3, the coldest region currently. ENSO events start to wane February at the latest. It's almost impossible that we'll get an official La Nina this year.

[BuffaloWeather]

So we went from Moderate/Strong Nina that was predicted earlier this year to neutral Enso? That's quite the change!

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's Nov 11th, and Nino 3.4 is -0.3, the coldest region currently. ENSO events start to wane February at the latest. It's almost impossible that we'll get an official La Nina this year.

Yea, all I care about is the peak ONI value, anyway.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's Nov 11th, and Nino 3.4 is -0.3, the coldest region currently. ENSO events start to wane February at the latest. It's almost impossible that we'll get an official La Nina this year.

We’ll probably get a RONI 3 month low point of sub -0.8.

[brooklynwx99]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Careful with the PDO....it's as much of a reflection of the past regime as it is a predictor of the future....ie the momentum is just as important. If begins climbing rather abruptly....

this helps

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

We’ll probably get a RONI 3 month low point of sub -0.8.

Also, the MEI (if it ever updates) is almost certainly sub -1, and possibly even sub -1.5

This year is going to be the toughest one to classify.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this helps

Oisst is even better. Coral Reefs has been notoriously a tick or 2 warmer over the years.

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone noticed, but Euro Weeklies forecast has been hitting hard on weakening then removing the ridge over Japan starting early December. Should help some with PDO and ridge placement over Alaska. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411110000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411180000

 

[mitchnick]

58 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if anyone noticed, but Euro Weeklies forecast has been hitting hard on weakening then removing the ridge over Japan starting early December. Should help some with PDO and ridge placement over Alaska. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411110000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411180000

 

I should have added, both GEFS & GEPS are showing a trough over Japan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111206&fh=384

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111200&fh=384

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So we went from Moderate/Strong Nina that was predicted earlier this year to neutral Enso? That's quite the change!

Something much different is happening with the global temperatures decoupling with past ENSO transitions at least through November. So it’s no surprise that the record warmth isn’t allowing the La Niña to develop normally. But we are still getting a very strong La Niña and -PDO 500 mb pattern. It may be why several models are trying to transition back to El Niño next year so soon. We will have to monitor since it’s way to early for models to reliably forecast the ENSO that far out.

 

No post Nino drop showing up yet like in past

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Something much different is happening with the global temperatures decoupling with past ENSO transitions at least through November. So it’s no surprise that the record warmth isn’t allowing the La Niña to develop normally. But we are still getting a very strong La Niña and -PDO 500 mb pattern. It may be why several models are trying to transition back to El Niño next year so soon. We will have to monitor since it’s way to early for models to reliably forecast the ENSO that far out.

 

No post Nino drop showing up yet like in past

 

I don't know, this feels like the period after the 2010-12 la nina was declared over, and people were in a rush to print out their "2012-13 super el nino" headlines. Because that will grab a reader's eyeballs more than "2012-13 ENSO neutral".

I am skeptical of there being any type of el nino in 2025-26. For one, we are in a deeper -PDO than we were in 2012. (It's very rare to have 2 el ninos in 3 years, let alone in this deep of a -PDO.)

What I think is more likely is that the PDO retreats towards neutral in 2025, like it did in 2013. It will happen in this order (1) we stay ENSO neutral for an extended period, (2) the PDO turns positive in 2026 or 2027, and (3) we have the el nino.

The "2025-26 el nino" headlines will be printed, but I won't be fooled by them like I was in 2012-13. Yes, the el nino will happen before the decade is over, but like in 2012, the ingredients aren't there just yet.

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, FPizz said:

Or post about how in 10 days it looks warm.  We know it is most likely going to be warm, we need to find those positive windows now

I don't think this winter is going to be wall to wall warm at all. Especially here but even on the east coast. Do I think the east coast ends up with a warmer than avg DJF? Yes. But do I think there's more than a few periods of opportunity? Yes.

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

 

It's looking like 2025-26 is going to have a 2013-14 setup. Should I start getting my hopes up or is it too early?

Omggg. A chance to relive the most severe winter on record? Sign me up! 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if anyone noticed, but Euro Weeklies forecast has been hitting hard on weakening then removing the ridge over Japan starting early December. Should help some with PDO and ridge placement over Alaska. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411110000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411180000

 

Weeklies definitely got colder in december.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Something much different is happening with the global temperatures decoupling with past ENSO transitions at least through November. So it’s no surprise that the record warmth isn’t allowing the La Niña to develop normally. But we are still getting a very strong La Niña and -PDO 500 mb pattern. It may be why several models are trying to transition back to El Niño next year so soon. We will have to monitor since it’s way to early for models to reliably forecast the ENSO that far out.

 

No post Nino drop showing up yet like in past

 

That post from sad-faced Makiko is over a month old. Looks to me like the sun will peak this month.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weeklies definitely got colder in december.

Imho, last night's run of the Eps for the east/south look more Niño than flaming Niña depicted on monthly modeling.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024111200&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That post from sad-faced Makiko is over a month old. Looks to me like the sun will peak this month.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

You are missing the point of the post. The last 15-18 months have been without precedent. Last winter we got super El Niño warmth getting enhanced by the La Niña and -PDO warm tendencies in regard to the Southeast Ridge. This fall has seen lingering super El Niño type warmth exceeding 2015 getting enhanced by the La Niña background boosting the 500mb ridge amplitude. So a merger of all the warmest tendencies from both El Niño and La Niña. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are missing the point of the post. The last 15-18 months have been without precedent. Last winter we got super El Niño warmth getting enhanced by the La Niña and -PDO warm tendencies in regard to the Southeast Ridge. This fall has seen lingering super El Niño type warmth exceeding 2015 getting enhanced by the La Niña background boosting the 500mb ridge amplitude. So a merger of all the warmest tendencies from both El Niño and La Niña. 

I don't care about why it's been warm. Lol  The internet is filled with "me firsts" trying to come up with new theories/explanations on warming so they can join the 10,000 jumping off the GW Brooklyn Bridge. Whether they are right or wrong, the past is dead. I'm looking forward to this winter and trying to identify opportunities in the east in accordance with the thread title "2024-2025 La Nina."

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't care about why it's been warm. Lol  The internet is filled with "me firsts" trying to come up with new theories/explanations on warming so they can join the 10,000 jumping off the GW Brooklyn Bridge. Whether they are right or wrong, the past is dead. I'm looking forward to this winter and trying to identify opportunities in the east in accordance with the thread title "2024-2025 La Nina."

There are people who literally had to have amputations due to cold in Kansas City during an NFL game in January. I actually went out for a winter walk one day in mid-Jan and turned right around because it was too cold for me, someone used to cold in MI. Yes, in the insanely warm winter of 2023-24 we had a big arctic blast. Why bring this up? Because this winter will not be anywhere near as warm as last winter in many places. I feel people get WAY too caught up in the projected MONTHLY and SEASONAL anomalies and fail to remember that the weather changes on a near daily basis often times.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I don't know, this feels like the period after the 2010-12 la nina was declared over, and people were in a rush to print out their "2012-13 super el nino" headlines. Because that will grab a reader's eyeballs more than "2012-13 ENSO neutral".

I am skeptical of there being any type of el nino in 2025-26. For one, we are in a deeper -PDO than we were in 2012. (It's very rare to have 2 el ninos in 3 years, let alone in this deep of a -PDO.)

What I think is more likely is that the PDO retreats towards neutral in 2025, like it did in 2013. It will happen in this order (1) we stay ENSO neutral for an extended period, (2) the PDO turns positive in 2026 or 2027, and (3) we have the el nino.

The "2025-26 el nino" headlines will be printed, but I won't be fooled by them like I was in 2012-13. Yes, the el nino will happen before the decade is over, but like in 2012, the ingredients aren't there just yet.

It could be the ENSO models operating in repeater mode right now. Less ENSO cooling due to the much warmer background inhibiting cold pool growth. Then repeating this state closer to initialization into an ENSO warming into next year. Would be a first if this happened from the borderline super last winter. So it probably isn’t the most likely outcome at this point. But would be an interesting occurrence if these long range models are actually onto something.  

[brooklynwx99]

i do like seeing all of the ridging over AK and the WC to end the month on longer range guidance... usually the winter begins to start to show its hand around the end of November

obviously, take with a grain of salt at range. just nice to see this rather than a black hole over the WC or AK

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That post from sad-faced Makiko is over a month old. Looks to me like the sun will peak this month.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

We’ve been hearing that the solar cycle has peaked since July and those claims have obviously been completely wrong. We won’t know if November is actually the peak for several months

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be the ENSO models operating in repeater mode right now. Less ENSO cooling due to the much warmer background inhibiting cold pool growth. Then repeating this state closer to initialization into an ENSO warming into next year. Would be a first if this happened from the borderline super last winter. So it probably isn’t the most likely outcome at this point. But would be an interesting occurrence if these long range models are actually onto something.  

Look at how much the Indian Ocean has warmed since October. This is only going to serve to reinforce the strong La Niña background state and tropical forcing (MJO 4-6) along with the -IOD

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

 

It's looking like 2025-26 is going to have a 2013-14 setup. Should I start getting my hopes up or is it too early?

 

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't care about why it's been warm. Lol  The internet is filled with "me firsts" trying to come up with new theories/explanations on warming so they can join the 10,000 jumping off the GW Brooklyn Bridge. Whether they are right or wrong, the past is dead. I'm looking forward to this winter and trying to identify opportunities in the east in accordance with the thread title "2024-2025 La Nina."

The recent past is always prologue to the future when weather and climate is involved. So understanding the current conditions helps frame the range of possibilities going forward.  Understanding and monitoring model biases also improves the success. I understand GW is a triggering topic for some on these forums since it challenges the past traditionally colder winter patterns from an earlier era. But you have to realize that for everyone who would like to go back to the colder era, there are many outside this forum who like the lower winter heating bills they have enjoyed over the last 9 seasons relative to what they would have been if it was much colder.