2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sure looks that way . Used to Media Propaganda could be dealt with legally in some instances but, not since 2013 I believe, when the Law was dropped. 

I honestly don't think that's why the maps are flawed. What the reason is, I don't know. But NONE of the other maps show these flaws, and WB has a lot of long range maps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone know what the final SAI/SCE were?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Are we getting AS and SO numbers for the MEI today or tomorrow, or has this been discontinued again?

[brooklynwx99]

it's nice that the MJO was able to cycle through the cold phases. looks like we'll be making a pass towards them as we approach the holidays

[bluewave]

Western Trough starting to make a comeback after not being much of a factor in September and October. The competing marine heatwaves combining with the MJO 1 in November is much warmer than past events. So a relatively cooler phase in the past for much of the CONUS is getting muted while the warmer phase in October was greatly amplified. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's nice that the MJO was able to cycle through the cold phases. looks like we'll be making a pass towards them as we approach the holidays

Yeah, I'm liking my prediction of a cold first third of December, warm middle third, and cool final third of December (in the mid-Atlantic). November 2021 looks like a very good analog month for December. January is going to torch (like December 2021), though.

[FPizz]

On 10/9/2024 at 9:09 AM, George001 said:

seasonal ACE is now up to 130 thanks to hurricane Milton going nuclear and deepening significantly more than expected by the models. Milton has already produced nearly 20 ACE, and we may be looking at an ACE of 135-140 once Milton falls apart. On average we see around 20 ACE after today, which means we are looking at potentially a 150+ ACE season despite just a couple weeks ago the hurricane season looking like a complete bust. Things can change fast in weather, something worth keeping in mind during the winter as well if things start slowly. 

I just asked in the hurricane thread, looks like we are at 159.8 thanks to @GaWx.  

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone know what the final SAI/SCE were?

All I know, from what I read on twitter, is Judah said Siberian snowcover buildup looked promising around mid-October, then it took a dump and completely stopped the last 2 weeks of October. I believe it finished just “normal” and he was very disappointed 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

I just asked in the hurricane thread, looks like we are at 159.8 thanks to @GaWx.  

Possibly headed well into the 160s due to next potential W Car TC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really don't see the value in posting volumes of support for a warm winter at this point....I mean, while you're at it, maybe dig up some tweets from scientists arguing that the world is round?

I think at this point of the season, there is more value in thinking outside of the box and envisioning what, if anything could go "wrong" from a consensus perspective.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Possibly headed well into the 160s due to next potential W Car TC.

Right on par with 2021.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right on par with 2021.

MJO looping back into 7/8/1 in late Dec and early Jan also jives well with 2021-22

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't see the value in posting volumes of support for a warm winter at this point....I mean, while you're at it, maybe dig up some tweets from scientists arguing that the world is round?

I think it this point of the season, there is more value in thinking outside of the box and envisioning what, if anything could go "wrong" from a consensus perspective.

I don't mean this to be an ass, either...I would get it if there were resistance, but there really isn't. Like last year, I totally got it....but we are all generally on the same page here, so I think honing in on the magnitude, characterization, timing and length of any potential deviations would have more value at this stage.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

MJO looping back into 7/8/1 in late Dec and early Jan also jives well with 2021-22

It looks to me like it will be one month shifted this year, though. I get the feel that DJF 2024-25 is going to resemble NDJ 2021-22, and we're going to get the MJO 8/1 mismatch in February, rather than January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It looks to me like it will be one month shifted this year, though. I get the feel that DJF 2024-25 is going to resemble NDJ 2021-22, and we're going to get the MJO 8/1 mismatch in February, rather than January.

It could be an overlap...I know we like to distinguish using human constructs of arbitraty 30 days periods, but every now and then mother nature likes to moon us for doing so.

[michsnowfreak]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean this to be an ass, either...I would get it if there were resistance, but there really isn't. Like last year, I totally got it....but we are all generally on the same page here, so I think honing in on the magnitude, characterization, timing and length of any potential deviations would have more value at this stage.

I dont live on the east coast so ill just say it. The problem is if/when those deviations occur, a few of the posters who have those warm biases will simply dismiss them or ignore them all together.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont live on the east coast so ill just say it. The problem is if/when those deviations occur, a few of the posters who have those warm biases will simply dismiss them or ignore them all together.

Or post about how in 10 days it looks warm.  We know it is most likely going to be warm, we need to find those positive windows now

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5880dm in Ireland tomorrow!

-NAO holds through hr384 on 12z GEFS. The 10mb level is cold, so this is a bit of an anomaly.  I was thinking because of how extreme the +NAO has been this year, it would have to flip around a little bit before the Winter, if the Winter is to be a +nao. But NAO in November does have a +correlation with the Winter at about 55%. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Warm water is showing up in the western-subsurface, which is catching up to what the CPC has shown for a little while

Starting to lower the La Nina chances for next year. 

The subsurface is also Neutral.. so it will be interesting to see if a La Nina-Pacific pattern happens this Winter. As per the subsurface, it's not as much of a blowout as you would think.  Since 1998, the Hadley Cell has been La Nina-like in Neutral times though. 

[Daniel Boone]

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I honestly don't think that's why the maps are flawed. What the reason is, I don't know. But NONE of the other maps show these flaws, and WB has a lot of long range maps.

It is really strange.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You might also want to rename this thread "2024-2025 ENSO Neutral", because we aren't going to get 5 months of ONI -0.5 or less. Nino 3.4 is -0.3 now, and it usually peaks around a month from now. We might not even make it as low as -0.4 on the ONI. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Latest SST departures:

Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.2ºC

[George001]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean this to be an ass, either...I would get it if there were resistance, but there really isn't. Like last year, I totally got it....but we are all generally on the same page here, so I think honing in on the magnitude, characterization, timing and length of any potential deviations would have more value at this stage.

I’m definitely more bullish on winter than most, but some of the things I’ve seen so far in November have me concerned. That said, I agree it’s a good idea to think outside the box and ask what could go wrong. I have a few things in mind:

1. The currently strongly -PDO continues to weaken and ends up only moderately or even weakly negative for the second half of winter 
2. In the second half of this hurricane season, guidance has repeatedly underestimated the strength of developing lows in the gulf. It is possible this continues into the winter, especially if the ocean temps remain elevated (AGW isn’t going anywhere, so this is very likely). During our windows of opportunity, digging shortwaves may be able to tap that gulf moisture leading to bigger storms coming up the coast. This could lead to a snowier than expected outcome even if seasonal guidance has the right idea about the temp profile.

3. The expected +NAO is more south based than seasonal guidance is indicating, leading to a colder outcome for New England. 
4. El Niño begins to to rapidly develop in the second half of winter (note: this is not supported by any guidance whatsoever)

5. Something that didn’t cross anyone’s mind pops up and derails the consensus winter forecasts.

From most likely to least:

5 > 2 >>> 3 >>> 1 >>>>>>> 4

[mitchnick]

I'm not Gawx, but ahem...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might also want to rename this thread "2024-2025 ENSO Neutral", because we aren't going to get 5 months of ONI -0.5 or less. Nino 3.4 is -0.3 now, and it usually peaks around a month from now. We might not even make it as low as -0.4 on the ONI. 

Eh...I wouldn't say that yet. 2008 is a great ENSO analog and it racked up ONI by hanging out near peak for a relatively long duration, rather than reaching a low weekly. It was -0.1 at this point on the weekly and peaked at 0.8 ONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m definitely more bullish on winter than most, but some of the things I’ve seen so far in November have me concerned. That said, I agree it’s a good idea to think outside the box and ask what could go wrong. I have a few things in mind:

1. The currently strongly -PDO continues to weaken and ends up only moderately or even weakly negative for the second half of winter 
2. In the second half of this hurricane season, guidance has repeatedly underestimated the strength of developing lows in the gulf. It is possible this continues into the winter, especially if the ocean temps remain elevated (AGW isn’t going anywhere, so this is very likely). During our windows of opportunity, digging shortwaves may be able to tap that gulf moisture leading to bigger storms coming up the coast. This could lead to a snowier than expected outcome even if seasonal guidance has the right idea about the temp profile.

3. The expected +NAO is more south based than seasonal guidance is indicating, leading to a colder outcome for New England. 
4. El Niño begins to to rapidly develop in the second half of winter (note: this is not supported by any guidance whatsoever)

5. Something that didn’t cross anyone’s mind pops up and derails the consensus winter forecasts.

From most likely to least:

5 > 2 >>> 3 >>> 1 >>>>>>> 4

Careful with the PDO....it's as much of a reflection of the past regime as it is a predictor of the future....ie the momentum is just as important. If begins climbing rather abruptly....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh...I wouldn't say that yet. 2008 is a great ENSO analog and it racked up ONI by hanging out near peak for a relatively long duration, rather than reaching a low weekly. It was -0.1 at this point on the weekly and peaked at 0.8 ONI.

The subsurface is neutral and the SOI is neutral. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Careful with the PDO....it's as much of a reflection of the past regime as it is a predictor of the future....ie the momentum is just as important. If begins climbing rather abruptly....

Yeah, I tested "lead time PDO" vs "time of PDO", and actually found a near 0 advantage on the lead.. The pattern that is in place impacting the PDO actually tested higher historically.. 

Of course this Winter you can say it will be a -1 to -2 Winter PDO, and that's not lead, it's time of. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The subsurface is neutral and the SOI is neutral. 

Subsurface is neutral over the western half, which means it won't go Modoki....-1 to -2C over the eastern half.