2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

72-73 still stands as Phillys least snowy winter even though it was significantly colder than many recent winters which had more snow. 
 

Top 5 lowest snowfall seasons at Philly and DJF average temperature

72-73…..T……36.0°

22-23….0.3….41.3°

19-20….0.3…..39.5°

97-98….0.8….40.4°

49-50…2.0….38.7°

11-12…..4.0…..40.7°

01-02….4.0…..41.3°

 

 

Very interesting for that latitude. Even here, 1972-73 was one of the "coolest" strong Ninos youll ever see, but did have a mild Jan & warm Mar.

That is even more likely here, which is why I always talk about how precip/patterns are more important here than actual temp departures (of course temp departures make a much bigger difference early and late in the season). I always want a season of good snowcover, but if im stuck with mild, no reason we cant have an avg snowfall season. Its become much more common recently as well.

 

Top 5 lowest snowfall seasons at Detroit & avg DJF temp

1.) 1936-37: 12.9"....30.0F (30th warmest)

2.) 1881-82: 13.2"....37.0F (1st warmest)

3.) 1948-49: 13.7"....31.3F (17th warmest)

4.) 1918-19: 15.2"....32.2F (14th warmest)

5.) 1965-66: 15.4"....28.5F (43rd warmest)

Pretty much avoiding  top 5-10 warm winter is ALWAYS preferred, but anything colder than that is a crapshoot for snow. Ive lived through our most severe winter on record, I hope to never have to see our least severe lol. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For February? Very unlikely anytime soon in the northern Middle Atlantic, much less New England regions.

Based on average maximum temperature data and data for warming (at the 1980-2024 rate), such an outcome would be extremely unlikely for Newark, which recorded an 80° temperature in February 2018. Below is a chart showing the lower and upper 99.9% limits. By 2030, the upper-bound is likely to be 84°. Occasionally, the extremes break through such limits, as occurred in Phoenix in early October. However, the 6° difference between 90° and the upper bound by 2030 is so large, that it would be all but impossible to see a 90° February temperature in Newark or elsewhere in the northern Mid-Atlantic region through at least 2030.

February is no, but I think March is possible if we can get a heatwave very close to the end of the month. We got close, and locations actually reached 90, on 3/30 and/or 3/31/1998.

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

February is no, but I think March is possible if we can get a heatwave very close to the end of the month. We got close, and locations actually reached 90, on 3/30 and/or 3/31/1998.

March, for sure. I used February, because March had already seen 90° heat in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region previously and February has seen the highest temperature for any winter month.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

February is no, but I think March is possible if we can get a heatwave very close to the end of the month. We got close, and locations actually reached 90, on 3/30 and/or 3/31/1998.

it was 89, 91, 90, 39 on mar 29,30,31, apr 1, 1998, up at umass lowell in ne massachusetts.  i know, i was there.    and yes... 39 on apr 1

back door front toting cold from the heart of satan swept through the region on the evening of the 31st.   it was off the high of the day by 12 or so anyway by 6 pm when it arrived, but we shed 20 f in 10 min and the remaining 20 over the next several hours.  greatest 24 hour temperature correction due to specifically, back dooring, i've ever personally experienced or ever really even heard off. 52 big ones.  i've seen 40 corrections several times.

anyway, that 1998 heat happening now .. it would be interesting.   

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

March, for sure. I used February, because March had already seen 90° heat in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region previously and February has seen the highest temperature for any winter month.

One of the more impressive winter records that has yet to be broken at many stations in the midwest/Lakes is the all time high temp in January. Jan 25, 1950 (Detroit was 67, Ann Arbor 72). Of the winter months here, December has warmed the most and January the least (hardly at all). 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

One of the more impressive winter records that has yet to be broken at many stations in the midwest/Lakes is the all time high temp in January. Jan 25, 1950 (Detroit was 67, Ann Arbor 72). Of the winter months here, December has warmed the most and January the least (hardly at all). 

I suspect that the 1950 record at Ann Arbor will stand for quite some time to come. It's just so far beyond anything that has occurred in January that it's difficult to see its being matched or broken anytime soon. The Detroit record might be something that could be challenged over the next decade or so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it was 89, 91, 90, 39 on mar 29,30,31, apr 1, 1998, up at umass lowell in ne massachusetts.  i know, i was there.    and yes... 39 on apr 1

back door front toting cold from the heart of satan swept through the region on the evening of the 31st.   it was off the high of the day by 12 or so anyway by 6 pm when it arrived, but we shed 20 f in 10 min and the remaining 20 over the next several hours.  greatest 24 hour temperature correction due to specifically, back dooring, i've ever personally experienced or ever really even heard off. 52 big ones.  i've seen 40 corrections several times.

anyway, that 1998 heat happening now .. it would be interesting.   

I remember that heat...I was a junior in HS.

[bluewave]

On 11/4/2024 at 4:23 PM, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies mean, while warm dominated til the end once again, have a change late (not on prior runs) toward a weakening SPV that approaches the climo avg fwiw:

Volatility of the AO and NAO domains continues to be the main theme. We had the record October AO swing recently from low to high in the raw index. This was following the record 500mb low pressure in August. Now the area south of Iceland is approaching the positive 500 mb height record for November at near +4.6 SD for next week. The block is coming in a little more south based than usual so the raw indexes are missing the magnitude of the 500mb anomaly.

 

 

[snowman19]

Volatility of the AO and NAO domains continues to be the main theme. We had the record October AO swing recently from low to high in the raw index. This was following the record 500mb low pressure in August. Now the area south of Iceland is approaching the positive 500 mb height record for November at near +4.6 SD for next week. The block is coming in a little more south based than usual so the raw indexes are missing the magnitude of the 500mb anomaly.
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Volatility of the AO and NAO domains continues to be the main theme. We had the record October AO swing recently from low to high in the raw index. This was following the record 500mb low pressure in August. Now the area south of Iceland is approaching the positive 500 mb height record for November at near +4.6 SD for next week. The block is coming in a little more south based than usual so the raw indexes are missing the magnitude of the 500mb anomaly.

 

 

being on the eastern limb of the nao domain matters some, too. 

in general ( imo ) nothing matters until the +wpo/+epo changes.   it's not just this indexes being positive, either... the pac entire manifold is in a double-a type.   that's all 'self-reenforcing' and ... heh, gotta say,  if there's ever a november set to correlate to an ensuing winter, better than other years, this is a candidate.  that's like taking half the planetary system and creating the same brick out of it - it's going to need a pretty big hammer to bust it up...

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Continue through mid-Nov...so a week.  Bold prediction from Ben

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the new era of Greenland and Iceland blocks linking up with the Southeast Ridge.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone know why this says eastern phase? Could have sworn QBO is west...

[GaWx]

Check this out on today’s Euro Weeklies (similar to yesterday’s): the SPV stays near climo avg throughout

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone know why this says eastern phase? Could have sworn QBO is west...

It is a solid W at 30 mb. Maybe that’s for a different altitude?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

It is a solid W at 30 mb. Maybe that’s for a different altitude?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

50mb, too....odd.

[so_whats_happening]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone know why this says eastern phase? Could have sworn QBO is west...

The QBO is changing at the upper levels like it usually does whether going westerly or easterly. The important factor still is the 30-50mb range regardless which shouldn't change for another ~12 months. They are correct though in stating the QBO is in the east descending phase as of right now.

Westerly tends to descend faster than easterly so it shouldn't make a difference at all for winter, but it should give us clues going into next winter.

[BuffaloWeather]

It will snow this winter. I can promise you that. 

[Terpeast]

MJO rmm ens forecasts currently predict another 4-6 pass between Thanksgiving and mid-December-ish. 

November will be mild overall for the east, but might have some variability on the cooler side, potentially a huge lake effect event late Nov or an interior snowfall in the NE. Then likely turn back milder for the first half of December. Beyond that is when I’m watching for it to turn, if at all.

[bluewave]

October finished at the 2nd warmest for the CONUS. The September and October period was warmest by a wide margin. Very impressive how much warmer this fall has been so far than the 2015 super El Niño.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

October finished at the 2nd warmest for the CONUS. The September and October period was warmest by a wide margin. Very impressive how much warmer this fall has been so far than the 2015 super El Niño.

 

It’s also the second warmest January-October period on record.

[snowman19]

It’s also the second warmest January-October period on record.

New NMME:

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

New NMME:

 

 

 

 

It's been out for 2 days on TT. Seems like, at least at this point, all seasonal forecasts show the Dec-Feb period average in the +1-2C range for the east. The question now is whether that's underdone or overdone. Let me get back to you on that one!

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's been out for 2 days on TT. Seems like, at least at this point, all seasonal forecasts show the Dec-Feb period average in the +1-2C range for the east. The question now is whether that's underdone or overdone. Let me get back to you on that one!

I think at this point, an above normal (temp) winter looks extremely likely. Snowfall is obviously the hardest to predict because it only takes one rogue big storm in an otherwise total crap snow pattern to skew the entire winter season. We saw that in 15-16

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think at this point, an above normal (temp) winter looks extremely likely. Snowfall is obviously the hardest to predict because it only takes one rogue big storm in an otherwise total crap snow pattern to skew the entire winter season. We saw that in 15-16

I posted a month or so ago (too lazy to find it) that December would torch and I  felt mby wouldn't get legit snow chances until the 1/15-2/25 period. I'll stick with that for now with the only caveat that 6-week period may need future adjustment in the future back a week or 2 to start in early January, but only if N America is able to cool fast enough from December. 

[bluewave]

On 11/8/2024 at 10:37 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

being on the eastern limb of the nao domain matters some, too. 

in general ( imo ) nothing matters until the +wpo/+epo changes.   it's not just this indexes being positive, either... the pac entire manifold is in a double-a type.   that's all 'self-reenforcing' and ... heh, gotta say,  if there's ever a november set to correlate to an ensuing winter, better than other years, this is a candidate.  that's like taking half the planetary system and creating the same brick out of it - it's going to need a pretty big hammer to bust it up...

We don’t even need a very strong Alaskan +EPO vortex anymore since the west based Greenland Block this fall linking up with the Southeast Ridge has produced record warmth. 
 

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think at this point, an above normal (temp) winter looks extremely likely. Snowfall is obviously the hardest to predict because it only takes one rogue big storm in an otherwise total crap snow pattern to skew the entire winter season. We saw that in 15-16

With how November is looking I am inclined to agree with this. The question is what is the magnitude of the warmth, and how long are the favorable vs unfavorable windows? Are we looking at +2f or closer to +5f? If we are looking at a shitty pattern like 15-16, 16-17, 22-23, etc where it’s closer to the +5 end, I would bet on well below normal snow. In my opinion if you run winters like 15-16 and 16-17 through a simulation, it would be well BN snow 9/10 times. The whole “relying on a 2 week window in a sea of shit” thing isn’t a sustainable way to get to average or above average snow. This is more true up north where it takes more than one big storm to get to average. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I posted a month or so ago (too lazy to find it) that December would torch and I  felt mby wouldn't get legit snow chances until the 1/15-2/25 period. I'll stick with that for now with the only caveat that 6-week period may need future adjustment in the future back a week or 2 to start in early January, but only if N America is able to cool fast enough from December. 

I see December being up and down, kind of like November 2021. The first third of the month will be colder than average, the second third warmer than average, and the final third a bit cool. December is going to be mostly dry, so not much snow. I see January being the torch month, like December 2021. If there is going to be the classic la nina, -PDO, MJO 8/1 mismatch month this winter, it's going to be February.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

October finished at the 2nd warmest for the CONUS. The September and October period was warmest by a wide margin. Very impressive how much warmer this fall has been so far than the 2015 super El Niño.

Dec-Feb

Dec

[BuffaloWeather]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think at this point, an above normal (temp) winter looks extremely likely. Snowfall is obviously the hardest to predict because it only takes one rogue big storm in an otherwise total crap snow pattern to skew the entire winter season. We saw that in 15-16

Bold call. Every winter is above normal in terms of temps now. You can predict that every winter for next 100 yrs and probably be 95% right.