2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't mean that it can't be dry in general in the east...just saying that the N stream is more important in New England.

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, with the -PMM (cold water off Baja), it supports a very muted STJ this winter and a very reduced chance of KU’s marching up the coast

Until that mega warm blob weakens in time or migrates east in a more favorable position, it won’t matter if we even have a raging southern jet this winter. That’s a no go for snow for the eastern folks.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather is derived from the dominant forcing and 500mb weather patterns. While last January was colder relative to the means than December and February, the mean 500 mb anomaly ridge remained over Southern Canada. So December 500mb ridge anomaly locked in for the entire winter which is very rare for an El Niño. 
 

 

 

Maybe that is why those who were looking forward to the el nino winter in the east were disappointed. I never, ever have high hopes for a strong nino winter (again, everything being relative to climo...winter in MI...it WILL snow). I always have much higher hopes in la nina winters, with caution of course applied to all the other factors at play.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well if New Mexico can get 4' of snow in early November, than it's hard to say that we can't get it too with the right pattern. My sister lives in Denver, and it has snowed out there a few May's recently, and even on 9-9-2020! When it was still Summer!

The largest anomaly over this 26-year period is over the Hadley Cell in the Pacific, not the Poles!

And that's more than 30% of the total dataset being covered! It's a West-based La Nina configuration. +AMO has been in flux during this time, too. 

Increase in global precipitable water minus the pattern plus global warming gives us only about a 0.10-0.15 correlation skew toward less snow, imo. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Love this thread for the graphics...saves me sooo much time because I have to make enough as it is myself and they are very time consuming.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well if New Mexico can get 4' of snow in early November, than it's hard to say that we can't get it too with the right pattern. My sister lives in Denver, and it has snowed out there a few May's recently, and even on 9-9-2020! When it was still Summer!

 

Yep. We will get ours one day, and when we do, some existing snowfall records will get absolutely pancaked. 

Not this winter probably. 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, it was a joke...I have never seen anyone so butt-hurt over CC. My god...how many times have I mused about how this is correct and I am including alot of it in my write up?

Jesus...injecting dark humor is just my way of coping and reducing tension.

hey man, right back at ya

i'm not even irritated by that.  i grew up with 8 sisters and no brothers - man, i'm way more iron hauled than that.  lol

i think there ( in all seriousness ) are some psycho babble games folk play though.  it's particularly true in this cc shit.   but in the end, no one really wants winters to die.  i get that.  i don't.   i particularly loathe the idea of the 46 f winter scape  

i feel pretty strongly that a winter like that is nearer than many may think or believe, aware ...or are willing to admit in this and other social media.  

i guess it's social media so .  yeah

but, we encounter a different sort of 'denial' brand in here.  it's not denial because  of the same false principalia, politicizing ... etc, of the wholesale society. ours seems specifically related to having to admit that winters are in trouble and our drug supply is dwindling. haha.  seriously though - perhaps more trouble (again) than we thingk  and the bargaining ( psycho definition ) is eye rollin' sometimes.    i'm just a band-aide ripper type of guy.  i choose to adult shit eating because one thing about reality i have grudgingly had to adapt to is that it is the greatest gas lighter of it all - all reality does is feed us shit, and evolution provides us dopamine to make us think it's sweet while it's being stuffed down.   psychologist call this being well-adaptive. 

...see, i'm darkly satirizing this engagement at the moment. 

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Until that mega warm blob weakens in time or migrates east in a more favorable position, it won’t matter if we even have a raging southern jet this winter. That’s a no go for snow for the eastern folks.

If Eastern folks means south of the NY/PA border to HFD-PVD line I totally agree. South of there is roughly where SWFE events are mostly lousy sleet to cold rain events and don’t meaningfully add to seasonal snow totals. Some exceptions happen like 2/22/08 but mostly are just garbage. These come all the time in Nina’s and especially in this new regime. NNE can really rack up snow from these since they are closer to any cold air source. Down here I have zero optimism, I don’t see any wild card like 20-21 coming to save us. At least the rain is hopefully warmer and we won’t have a useless Christmas bomb with useless cold like 2022. I’m sure the Adirondacks to ME will be just fine and they do best in this horrendous disaster regime. The Pacific has to meaningfully change before our outcomes will. 

[michsnowfreak]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you're doing what everyone does when they don't like the information - gang up ...lampoon, saying there's no ridicule there or intended, but is like the best gaslighters, you're treating others with disrespect and candy coating it - or thinking your are.

you're winters are dimming because of climate change.

period

 

Lmao! Every aspect of the weather- it could be a clear, calm, seasonable day- is climate change with you. Every post, every everything. And what's funny is you act like you are fighting some battle against a group of climate deniers...no one in here ever denounces cc. But God forbid someone discusses a weather pattern without putting in a tip-mandated comment about cc. As 40/70 said, instant butthurt.

And I am just fine with my climate, thank you. I know you think you are an expert on the subject and you love to throw around extreme scenarios that wont happen. We literally JUST had our snowiest period in recorded history 2007-15. Not by a little, by a lot. The winters of the 2000s and 2010s were snowier than avg. Even with all the milder winters since 2016 weve only had a few below avg snow seasons. Keep fantasizing about your 90° winter temps.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao! Every aspect of the weather- it could be a clear, calm, seasonable day- is climate change with you. Every post, every everything. And what's funny is you act like you are fighting some battle against a group of climate deniers...no one in here ever denounces cc. But God forbid someone discusses a weather pattern without putting in a tip-mandated comment about cc. As 40/70 said, instant butthurt.

And I am just fine with my climate, thank you. I know you think you are an expert on the subject and you love to throw around extreme scenarios that wont happen. We literally JUST had our snowiest period in recorded history 2007-15. Not by a little, by a lot. The winters of the 2000s and 2010s were snowier than avg. Even with all the milder winters since 2016 weve only had a few below avg snow seasons. Keep fantasizing about your 90° winter temps.

it's alright ... i'm half shitting everyone.

hey, gimme a break - society just succeeded in raising Senator Palpatine from the dead.   not feelin' very confident about anyone these days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's alright ... i'm half shitting everyone.

hey, gimme a break - society just succeeded in raising Senator Palpatine from the dead.   not feelin' very confident about anyone these days. 

We all just need to be jerks sometimes....it goes both ways, too....the cold bias zealots like JB take plenty of shit, too.

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's alright ... i'm half shitting everyone.

hey, gimme a break - society just succeeded in raising Senator Palpatine from the dead.   not feelin' very confident about anyone these days. 

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We all just need to be jerks sometimes....it goes both ways, too....the cold bias zealots like JB take plenty of shit, too.

This x 100. And by no means am I taking ANY cracks at tips intelligence. I just think it goes too far sometimes. The Great Lakes add an entire different aspect to the climate. Which is why in a "perfect world" the changes in local climate (which arent drastic) can be beneficial (slightly milder temps but more precip/snow) but there will still be great years and terrible years. Im not an ice fisherman who doesnt care how little snow we get as long as the ice is thick. Im the opposite. 

JB gets his flack and rightly so but honestly, hes probably more intelligent than he gets credit for. If he posted in here on a daily basis, hed be the cold version of snowman/bluewave. Its one thing to have bias, but think of just HOW much more about the weather people like us know than people that swear by the little icons on their phone telling them todays weather.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yep. We will get ours one day, and when we do, some existing snowfall records will get absolutely pancaked. 

Not this winter probably. 

Yeah, global precipitable water on the uptick is a big part of what's happening right now. 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Maybe that is why those who were looking forward to the el nino winter in the east were disappointed. I never, ever have high hopes for a strong nino winter (again, everything being relative to climo...winter in MI...it WILL snow). I always have much higher hopes in la nina winters, with caution of course applied to all the other factors at play.

72-73 had a great backloaded winter in the Southeast with a record breaking snowstorm in February. 82-83 had the famous February Northeast snowstorm. 97-98 didn’t have any cold or snowy periods for many. 15-16 started with historic warmth but the lingering +PDO from 13-14 and 14-15 helped produce the heaviest snowstorm in NYC history in January and the first below 0° since 94 in February. The La Niña background influence through the MJO and -PDO combined with the borderline super El Niño to create the warmest winter in record along the Northern Tier and Canada in 23-24.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

This x 100. And by no means am I taking ANY cracks at tips intelligence. I just think it goes too far sometimes. The Great Lakes add an entire different aspect to the climate. Which is why in a "perfect world" the changes in local climate (which arent drastic) can be beneficial (slightly milder temps but more precip/snow) but there will still be great years and terrible years. Im not an ice fisherman who doesnt care how little snow we get as long as the ice is thick. Im the opposite. 

JB gets his flack and rightly so but honestly, hes probably more intelligent than he gets credit for. If he posted in here on a daily basis, hed be the cold version of snowman/bluewave. Its one thing to have bias, but think of just HOW much more about the weather people like us know than people that swear by the little icons on their phone telling them todays weather.

JB has alterior motives, though...at least at that stage of his career, which is part of the issue. Kind of akin to how young athletes trying to establish their value are most productive relative to after they hit payday.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, global precipitable water on the uptick is a big part of what's happening right now. 

yeah...  he knows this, but was just going to add the same statement

if we took some random maintenance winter event from 1990 ... a replicated it's machinery in 2024 ...  the rain/snow are just going to result greater in 2024.  

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

72-73 had a great backloaded winter in the Southeast with a record breaking snowstorm in February. 82-83 had the famous February Northeast snowstorm. 97-98 didn’t have any cold or snowy periods for many. 15-16 started with historic warmth but the lingering +PDO from 13-14 and 14-15 helped produce the heaviest snowstorm in NYC history in January and the first below 0° since 94 in February. The La Niña background influence through the MJO and -PDO combined with the borderline super El Niño to create the warmest winter in record along the Northern Tier and Canada in 23-24.

72-73 was an ok winter here, avg snow but not good retention. 82-83 was terrible outside of 2 spring snowstorms. 97-98 sucked but at least had ok periods. I cant imagine the frustration in 72-73 for people in NYC or DC seeing the southeast get a snowstorm when they had a literally snowless winter. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...  he knows this, but was just going to add the same statement

if we took some random maintenance winter event from 1990 ... a replicated it's machinery in 2024 ...  the rain/snow are just going to result greater in 2024.  

This is why I think the east coast, regardless of how much their winters warm, have yet to see their biggest snowstorm on record. One day the ingredients will come together just right, add in the already robust components of a noreaster but give it more moisture to work with...watch out.

[snowman19]

56 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Until that mega warm blob weakens in time or migrates east in a more favorable position, it won’t matter if we even have a raging southern jet this winter. That’s a no go for snow for the eastern folks.

That big GOA cold pool too

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That big GOA cold pool too

Ah...can always count on snowman to give your grape the one last shove needed to consume that last morsel of dirt. I need your number in case I am ever struggling to overcome that last layer of ambivalence on a ledge.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

72-73 was an ok winter here, avg snow but not good retention. 82-83 was terrible outside of 2 spring snowstorms. 97-98 sucked but at least had ok periods. I cant imagine the frustration in 72-73 for people in NYC or DC seeing the southeast get a snowstorm when they had a literally snowless winter. 

There was a snowstorm here in the East on April 19-20, 1983. Some places as far south as North Carolina got multiple inches of snow. For PHL, which got 2 inches of snow, this is the latest snow event on record.

I can't imagine snow sticking with that high of a sun angle here near PHL, let alone in North Carolina. The sun angle is equivalent to August 20 or 21.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@bluewaveI have some interesting ideas about your deviation stuff that I am sharing in this year's work. Really facinating relationship to ponder....been wrestling with that today.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

72-73 was an ok winter here, avg snow but not good retention. 82-83 was terrible outside of 2 spring snowstorms. 97-98 sucked but at least had ok periods. I cant imagine the frustration in 72-73 for people in NYC or DC seeing the southeast get a snowstorm when they had a literally snowless winter. 

72-73 still stands as Phillys least snowy winter even though it was significantly colder than many recent winters which had more snow. 
 

Top 5 lowest snowfall seasons at Philly and DJF average temperature

72-73…..T……36.0°

22-23….0.3….41.3°

19-20….0.3…..39.5°

97-98….0.8….40.4°

49-50…2.0….38.7°

11-12…..4.0…..40.7°

01-02….4.0…..41.3°

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How about this La Nina-like pattern

The globe has acted very La Nina-like, since the subsurface went negative in February.  The relative effect index is actually Moderate-Strong Nina-like.  I'm trying to figure out this state of things when the SSTs, SOI, and now subsurface have been near neutral. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Major Winter Storm out in the SW

They were in the 100s a few weeks ago. 

These anomaly spikes, I've noticed, have a tendency to even-out thereafter for the last few years.  

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Major Winter Storm out in the SW

They were in the 100s a few weeks ago. 

These anomaly spikes, I've noticed, have a tendency to even-out thereafter for the last few years.  

Been watching live cams from out there. Nice !

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How about this La Nina-like pattern

The globe has acted very La Nina-like, since the subsurface went negative in February.  The relative effect index is actually Moderate-Strong Nina-like.  I'm trying to figure out this state of things when the SSTs, SOI, and now subsurface have been near neutral. 

Relative index is still weak...like -.76.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

There was a snowstorm here in the East on April 19-20, 1983. Some places as far south as North Carolina got multiple inches of snow. For PHL, which got 2 inches of snow, this is the latest snow event on record.

I can't imagine snow sticking with that high of a sun angle here near PHL, let alone in North Carolina. The sun angle is equivalent to August 20 or 21.

On March 20/21, 1983, a snowstorm dropped 7.3" at Detroit. Another late snowfall hit 2 days earlier than yours, April 17, 1983. DTW saw 3.4" from this but northern suburbs had 6". Backing up, through March 19th DTW was at an unprecedentedly low 9.0" season total. Some older people STILL talk about that winter as the winter that wasnt. (it was also 64F on Christmas). 1982-83 was similar to 2011-12 in that it was an absolutely terrible winter surrounded before and after by cold, snowy winters, which probably made it seem even worse.

[michsnowfreak]

55 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Major Winter Storm out in the SW

They were in the 100s a few weeks ago. 

These anomaly spikes, I've noticed, have a tendency to even-out thereafter for the last few years.  

Raindance would be creaming his pants if he were still here. It is always nice to see these first storms really produce. Even though it has zero effect on me, its nice to know that winter is starting to get its act together. 

[donsutherland1]

21 hours ago, George001 said:

Im actually wondering if we had a March 2012 redux in today’s climate if we would see 90s. 

For February? Very unlikely anytime soon in the northern Middle Atlantic, much less New England regions.

Based on average maximum temperature data and data for warming (at the 1980-2024 rate), such an outcome would be extremely unlikely for Newark, which recorded an 80° temperature in February 2018. Below is a chart showing the lower and upper 99.9% limits. By 2030, the upper-bound is likely to be 84°. Occasionally, the extremes break through such limits, as occurred in Phoenix in early October. However, the 6° difference between 90° and the upper bound by 2030 is so large, that it would be all but impossible to see a 90° February temperature in Newark or elsewhere in the northern Mid-Atlantic region through at least 2030.