2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Im actually wondering if we had a March 2012 redux in today’s climate if we would see 90s. 

I doubt it. That's not long ago, the climate has not changed THAT much. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Im actually wondering if we had a March 2012 redux in today’s climate if we would see 90s. 

Yeah -- teleconnections weren't actually all that crazy today, for what kind of warmth it was. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Meanwhile, Las Vegas, NM is predicted to get 44" of snow tonight and tomorrow!  I've been there, it's right off an interstate that goes across the SW, and does not seem to be that high up. 

https://www.weather.gov/abq/

[40/70 Benchmark]

I see I missed another CC circle-jerk....Bluewave brings the toys, Tip the lotion and Chuck supplies the basket.

Neat.

[so_whats_happening]

Phase 1 and Phase 2 look interesting coming up lets see if it happens. This type of pattern will start to put pressure on the Polar Vortex. Probably not enough to weaken it significantly just yet but enough to halt the strengthening and disturb it a bit.

If we keep seeing these higher heights around the eastern European/ Kara Sea region flare up this may be the random shake-up that needs to occur to bring us out of the constant ridging barrage we have in place. Should be fun to see as we head toward winter.

What would really seal the deal on a weakening PV and allow for some winter fun would be this around Kara sea and an Alaskan ridge... Not in sight right now but something maybe to watch as we go forward.

If we go on with progression of the MJO we hit 4/5 again toward the end of the month and start to maybe (hypothetically at this point, since we would be so far away) swing into phase 7/8 as we close in on mid December, not great but not terrible. with maybe a chance at something stretching into early January. Just really depends on how fast the wave wants to move and the strength.

Overall though looking rough to say the least.

All Im looking for is some type of precip coming from the sky. Going on almost a month and a half with about a trace. Water restrictions hoisted around my area.

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Even the beginning of December isnt going to tell me much for winter as a whole, just for December. Ive learned to always take winter one month at a time at the MOST. Im not very good when it comes to all these indicies at all, Im more of a climo/know the weather type. It’s so early, as of this point, I really have to stick with what I said the other day - there are things I really like for this season, and things i really dont.

The state of the pattern at the start of December and the medium range forecasts at the time have spoken volumes about the winter patterns especially during La Ninas over the last decade. But sometimes we had to wait for periods which went against the La Niña and -PDO like Jan 22. Even last winter during an El Niño the winter pattern locked in early December which was rare for an El Niño. Before the last decade or so the weather patterns didn’t exhibit the pattern persistence that they have in recent times. It could be a feedback between the numerous marine heatwaves and 500mb patterns leading to these standing waves which have become the new normal. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

If we go on with progression of the MJO we hit 4/5 again toward the end of the month and start to maybe (hypothetically at this point, since we would be so far away) swing into phase 7/8 as we close in on mid December, not great but not terrible. with maybe a chance at something stretching into early January. Just really depends on how fast the wave wants to move and the strength.

Overall though looking rough to say the least.

All Im looking for is some type of precip coming from the sky. Going on almost a month and a half with about a trace. Water restrictions hoisted around my area.

Which is why I think a near to slightly below average temperature December is possible. However, I think it will be a dry cold like November 2021. Though with it being December instead of November, I think we can get a 1"-3" snow event somewhere. January is going to be a torch month like December 2021. The best hope for this winter is for some sort of MJO 8/1 mismatch in February to save the winter.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I do think there could be some -EPO periods this Winter, I'm not totally sold on a front-to-back +epo like some analog research's are suggesting, especially if we have a +NAO this Winter. 

The interesting thing about the recent +EPO pattern this fall is that the vortex near Alaska has been weaker than in past +EPO events. So there may very well be more neutral to negative episodes in the seasonal mix. But the +EPO ridge over North America has been as strong or stronger than when the Alaskan Vortex was deeper. I have noticed this pattern in recent years where the -PNA trough has been weaker than in the old days but the Southeast Ridge was stronger. This may be a function of 500mb heights increasing as the atmosphere warms. So the old one to one relationship with the magnitude of the troughs over the Pacific and corresponding ridges has been changing. So we don’t need as deep a trough anymore to get such strong to record breaking ridges and warmth over North America.

[snowman19]

With a weak ENSO state, my -NAO/-PNA/+EPO correlation is working. 
Look at this massive ridge extending across the N. Pacific! (it's been trending stronger the last 2 days)

The new thing today is this huge +EPO at the end of the model run, which is the warmest pattern, and would result in very above average temperatures across the CONUS for late Nov, if it holds (just started appearing on LR models today). November could end up a top 10 warmest for a lot of places if this verifies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing about the recent +EPO pattern this fall is that the vortex near Alaska has been weaker than in past +EPO events. So there may very well be more neutral to negative episodes in the seasonal mix. But the +EPO ridge over North America has been as strong or stronger than when the Alaskan Vortex was deeper. I have noticed this pattern in recent years where the -PNA trough has been weaker than in the old days but the Southeast Ridge was stronger. This may be a function of 500mb heights increasing as the atmosphere warms. So the old one to one relationship with the magnitude of the troughs over the Pacific and corresponding ridges has been changing. So we don’t need as deep a trough anymore to get such strong to record breaking ridges and warmth over North America.

Absolutely...this is why when we use the 1991-2020 climo period to measure older analogs, there is a sea of greater heights that washes everything out. This is why I use the 1951-2010 climo period quite often...but of course, it goes both ways. If you use a more recent analog for that period, then its a sea of blue. I try use that all encompasing 1951-2010 climo period when the composite is comprised of a wider range of years....like seasonal forecast composites, for instance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is like a nightmare form which I just can't awaken...its like the meteorology hobbyist version of the movie "Groundhog Day".....I'm Bill Murray.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The state of the pattern at the start of December and the medium range forecasts at the time have spoken volumes about the winter patterns especially during La Ninas over the last decade. But sometimes we had to wait for periods which went against the La Niña and -PDO like Jan 22. Even last winter during an El Niño the winter pattern locked in early December which was rare for an El Niño. Before the last decade or so the weather patterns didn’t exhibit the pattern persistence that they have in recent times. It could be a feedback between the numerous marine heatwaves and 500mb patterns leading to these standing waves which have become the new normal. 

Absolutely. I think it will work the other way eventually, but this plays into the greater "feast or famine" aspect"...slowly but surely famine is gaining ground.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is like a nightmare form which I just can't awaken...its like the meteorology hobbyist version of the movie "Groundhog Day".....I'm Bill Murray.

If there’s one OK winter period IMBY where it can snow more than a few inches I’d take that as a win. Otherwise the blinds are slammed shut. Honestly this warm weather is fine by me, if it won’t snow I hate useless cold. We do need the rain but sooner or later I’m sure the Nina cutters train will start up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jm1220 said:

If there’s one OK winter period IMBY where it can snow more than a few inches I’d take that as a win. Otherwise the blinds are slammed shut. Honestly this warm weather is fine by me, if it won’t snow I hate useless cold. We do need the rain but sooner or later I’m sure the Nina cutters train will start up. 

January 7th kept me from gouging my eyes out and quitting weather.

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is like a nightmare form which I just can't awaken...its like the meteorology hobbyist version of the movie "Groundhog Day".....I'm Bill Murray.

Yeah, but you get the chick! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 2020 and October 2021 were uber warm. The following month in each case (December 2020 and November 2021) were much close to normal temperaturewise. Three months later (February 2021 and January 2022), we got the -PDO la nina mismatch month.

I've already accepted that the die is cast for a slow start to winter this December and January. If 2020-21 and 2021-22 are an indicator, I still think we could milk out a close to average or even below average December. However, I'm keeping hope alive that February 2025 will be another mismatch month like February 2021 and January 2022. 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

November 2020 and October 2021 were uber warm. The following month in each case (December 2020 and November 2021) were much close to normal temperaturewise. Three months later (February 2021 and January 2022), we got the -PDO la nina mismatch month.

I've already accepted that the die is cast for a slow start to winter this December and January. If 2020-21 and 2021-22 are an indicator, I still think we could milk out a close to average or even below average December. However, I'm keeping hope alive that February 2025 will be another mismatch month like February 2021 and January 2022. 

2020 is not an analog IMO due to the solar minimum which in very large part helped drive the high latitude blocking

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

2020 is not an analog IMO due to the solar minimum which in very large part helped drive the high latitude blocking

Generally speaking you are correct, but I prefer to speak in terms of probabilities because there are a multitude of factors at play.

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Generally speaking you are correct, but I prefer to speak in terms of probabilities beacause there are a multitude of factors at play.

people are frequently way too reductive with analogs

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see I missed another CC circle-jerk....Bluewave brings the toys, Tip the lotion and Chuck supplies the basket.

Neat.

Lmao so true. Tip always has that lotion at the ready. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The state of the pattern at the start of December and the medium range forecasts at the time have spoken volumes about the winter patterns especially during La Ninas over the last decade. But sometimes we had to wait for periods which went against the La Niña and -PDO like Jan 22. Even last winter during an El Niño the winter pattern locked in early December which was rare for an El Niño. Before the last decade or so the weather patterns didn’t exhibit the pattern persistence that they have in recent times. It could be a feedback between the numerous marine heatwaves and 500mb patterns leading to these standing waves which have become the new normal. 

Patterns and indices are definitely not my strong suit, but I know that sensible weather has definitely not matched December to the rest of winter more often than not. Even last year, torch Dec followed by much colder and snowy Jan. In 2021-22, a very warm Dec was followed by a very cold Jan/Feb. While the La Nina winter of 2017-18 was cold & snowy throughout, the winter of 2016-17 had a cold, snowy Dec followed by a very mild Jan/Feb. Now, I know sensible weather sometimes has to catch up to some of the patterns/indicies/etc, but I DO know that the weather of December has not necessarily been a harbinger of winter the past decade (or really, ever). Some years, yes, but many years, no.

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Generally speaking you are correct, but I prefer to speak in terms of probabilities beacause there are a multitude of factors at play.

One thing is for sure, with the -PMM (cold water off Baja), it supports a very muted STJ this winter and a very reduced chance of KU’s marching up the coast

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see I missed another CC circle-jerk....Bluewave brings the toys, Tip the lotion and Chuck supplies the basket.

Neat.

well, if you got another explanation for what is utterly incontrovertibly objective reality ( hint hint ). otherwise ... it might be time to start taking your foot off the incredulity and disrespect throttle and well ... look intelligent.

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Patterns and indices are definitely not my strong suit, but I know that sensible weather has definitely not matched December to the rest of winter more often than not. Even last year, torch Dec followed by much colder and snowy Jan. In 2021-22, a very warm Dec was followed by a very cold Jan/Feb. While the La Nina winter of 2017-18 was cold & snowy throughout, the winter of 2016-17 had a cold, snowy Dec followed by a very mild Jan/Feb. Now, I know sensible weather sometimes has to catch up to some of the patterns/indicies/etc, but I DO know that the weather of December has not necessarily been a harbinger of winter the past decade (or really, ever). Some years, yes, but many years, no.

The sensible weather is derived from the dominant forcing and 500mb weather patterns. While last January was colder relative to the means than December and February, the mean 500 mb anomaly ridge remained over Southern Canada. So December 500mb ridge anomaly locked in for the entire winter which is very rare for an El Niño. 
 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather is derived from the dominant forcing and 500mb weather patterns. While last January was colder relative to the means than December and February, the mean 500 mb anomaly ridge remained over Southern Canada. So December 500mb ridge anomaly locked in for the entire winter which is very rare for an El Niño. 
 

 

 

Yeah, I totally whiffed all winter on this prediction. I thought we'd get a 2009-10 type winter to start with, but when December was warm, I changed my tune to a 2006-07 type winter (one that started warm, but the bottom dropped out in February). It looked good for a while in January, but the cold never materialized in February.

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I totally whiffed all winter on this prediction. I thought we'd get a 2009-10 type winter to start with, but when December was warm, I changed my tune to a 2006-07 type winter (one that started warm, but the bottom dropped out in February). It looked good for a while in January, but the cold never materialized in February.

The one common denominator to many of our recent winters has been some feature of the December pattern repeating for part or the entire winter. Last December it was the record breaking ridge over Southern Canada which locked in for the whole winter. In December 22 it was the Western Trough and the lack of snow in December which carried through the whole winter. December 21 had the warm pattern which returned in February following the great MJO 8 in January. December 2020 began with the great +PNA mismatch which carried through into mid-January. But since this allowed a trough to set up near the mid-Atlantic, that trough carried through the whole winter even when the PNA shifted. The snowy December also carried through the entire winter. December 2019 featured the very strong polar vortex and +AO which ran the table that winter. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao so true. Tip always has that lotion at the ready. 

you're doing what everyone does when they don't like the information - gang up ...lampoon, saying there's no ridicule there or intended, but is like the best gaslighters, you're treating others with disrespect and candy coating it - or thinking your are.

you're winters are dimming because of climate change.

period

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well, if you got another explanation for what is utterly incontrovertibly objective reality ( hint hint ). otherwise ... it might be time to start taking your foot off the incredulity and disrespect throttle and well ... look intelligent.

Dude, it was a joke...I have never seen anyone so butt-hurt over CC. My god...how many times have I mused about how this is correct and I am including alot of it in my write up?

Jesus...injecting dark humor is just my way of coping and reducing tension.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you're doing what everyone does when they don't like the information - gang up ...lampoon, saying there's no ridicule there or intended, but is like the best gaslighters, you're treating others with disrespect and candy coating it - or thinking your are.

you're winters are dimming because of climate change.

period

 

I don't mind being corrected...its a catalyst for growth...which ironically enough is a beacon of true intelligence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, with the -PMM (cold water off Baja), it supports a very muted STJ this winter and a very reduced chance of KU’s marching up the coast

I can live without coastal hugging, occluding Miller As....just let me know what the N stream does.