2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. But it's still good for the northern US. It's what causes those nina crazy temp gradients.

For the 22-23 La Niña the Euro was too warm in the West and too cool in the East. So the Euro was too cool under where the La Niña SE Ridge set up. The +1C forecast in those areas verified closer to +3.5C.
 

 

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, we have been saying that for a while now...I'm beginning to have some last second reservations about it TBH...especially with respect to intensity.

I’m confident in either a central-based cold-neutral (ONI) or very weak La Niña 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I’m confident in either a central-based cold-neutral (ONI) or very weak La Niña 

Yea, seems as though I am going to have to capitaulate at least somewhat to the guidance that has been backing off for the past month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That being said, it doesn't really change my mind with respect to anything in the grand scheme of things...just want to win dork-brownie points for verification purposes.

[snowman19]

As strong a signal as you will ever see (rest of this month)

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As strong a signal as you will ever see (rest of this month)

 

Huge +WPO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like 2022-2023 without the blocking.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

For the 22-23 La Niña the Euro was too warm in the West and too cool in the East. So the Euro was too cool under where the La Niña SE Ridge set up. The +1C forecast in those areas verified closer to +3.5C.
 

 

Honestly though seasonal models need to be taken with a grain of salt anyway, so that's something you can look at next spring (if the Euro had the same bias as it did before). A more extreme scenario of the Euro (colder and warmer anomalies than shown) is all but a guarantee, especially In a nina.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly though seasonal models need to be taken with a grain of salt anyway, so that's something you can look at next spring (if the Euro had the same bias as it did before). A more extreme scenario of the Euro (colder and warmer anomalies than shown) is all but a guarantee, especially In a nina.

The Euro did much better with the winter temperature forecast in 21-22 than the last two winters. It had close to a +1C departure for parts of the Northeast which was fairly close. But it required the big MJO 8 in January to go against the La Niña and -PDO at least for one month. So I think the only way the Euro seasonal will end up being closer this winter is for at least one month to go against the -PDO and La Niña background enough. 
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

With a weak ENSO state, my -NAO/-PNA/+EPO correlation is working. 

Look at this massive ridge extending across the N. Pacific! (it's been trending stronger the last 2 days)

The new thing today is this huge +EPO at the end of the model run, which is the warmest pattern, and would result in very above average temperatures across the CONUS for late Nov, if it holds (just started appearing on LR models today). November could end up a top 10 warmest for a lot of places if this verifies. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro did much better with the winter temperature forecast in 21-22 than the last two winters. It had close to a +1C departure for parts of the Northeast which was fairly close. But it required the big MJO 8 in January to go against the La Niña and -PDO at least for one month. So I think the only way the Euro seasonal will end up being closer this winter is for at least one month to go against the -PDO and La Niña background enough. 
 

DTW actually finished -0.4°F in 2021-22 but that had us a little over +1°C. Like I said though, always a grain of salt. That does look like a decent overall prediction by the Euro tho. Once we start getting snowstorms to track, it'll be interesting to see if Euro has regained it's king status of several years ago.

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

With a weak ENSO state, my -NAO/-PNA/+EPO correlation is working. 

Look at this massive ridge extending across the N. Pacific! (it's been trending stronger the last 2 days)

The new thing today is this huge +EPO at the end of the model run, which is the warmest pattern, and would result in very above average temperatures across the CONUS for late Nov, if it holds (just started appearing on LR models today). November could end up a top 10 warmest for a lot of places if this verifies. 

If the end of November pattern on the long range ensembles is correct, that’s a Bering Sea vortex, total lights out ++EPO pattern. That’s exactly what happened back in late November, 2011. It’s even worse than an Alaskan vortex

[George001]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the end of November pattern on the long range ensembles is correct, that’s a Bering Sea vortex, total lights out ++EPO pattern. That’s exactly what happened back in late November, 2011. It’s even worse than an Alaskan vortex

Yep a raging +EPO is bad news for the east. I would be skeptical of any modeled snow outside of NNE/elevations with that look -NAO or not. It could be interesting for ski areas in CNE though if the +EPO backs off some in early December. Areas more SE will need to wait longer, how much longer depends on what happens with the pacific pattern.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Already plotting the warmest Oct-Novembers on record for the CONUS, because this year could make a run at #1

Top 30 analogs, since 1948, Oct-Nov map:

 

Following December (30 analogs)

Following January

 

Following February (30 analogs)

Following March (30 analogs)

Oct-Nov ridge has a tendency to move east for the Winter months. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Already plotting the warmest Oct-Novembers on record for the CONUS, because this year could make a run at #1

Top 30 analogs, since 1948, Oct-Nov map:

 

Following December (30 analogs)

Following January

 

Following February (30 analogs)

Following March (30 analogs)

Oct-Nov ridge has a tendency to move east for the Winter months. 

add whatever decimals if not whole degree(s) correction for cc to historical climate inference ...something no one in here does for some strange reason, and the extremeness is probably an unknown extension.

these types of wildly anomalous patterns can happen anyway... but this autumn mmm, proooobably has a cc finger print on it to some form or another via attribution shit, and with that comes the uncertain ranges produced by synergy.

that is why it is currently 80 f between hfd and mht up here, with dps over 60!   that combination with light wind and near full sun, is hugely unlike the typical warm balm/indian summer thing.   which typically features a warm afternoon(s) over parchy dps.   the wb temps are still in fact chilly in the climo novembe departure. 

our wb is about 68 right now, doing so without the canonical southerly gale going on, whence mist and leaning tree tops makes for wcb transport that's in and out in 9 hrs.  full sun, light wind 81/63 completely and utterly out of the ordinary by character in 'how' - the symbolic nature of how these things impress are just as important (imho).  and in fact, the empirical numbers, of having 60+ for low temperatures in front of this afternoon ... the diurnal mean is something akin to a regional synergistic heat bomb happening as we type.  we may not break a high or low temp ( though hfd did ...), but the average is probably never happened on novie 6.

this is what those charts, combined with cc coefficient fixing, can do - today exemplifies that?   now imagine doing this a couple more times and we're talking about an aggregate scenario that is alarming, period.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

add whatever decimals if not whole degree(s) correction for cc to historical climate inference ...something no one in here does for some strange reason, and the extremeness is probably an unknown extension.

I actually did give a slight cold advantage to recent analogs, and warm advantage to older analogs when doing the weight. For example, 92-93, 93-94, 97-98, 00-01, and 02-03 were all cold Oct-Nov's (I did + and - analogs by the way). So I had a total of about 15 warm analogs, minus 15 cold analogs. But recent analogs didn't have to be super cold to make it, and 1950s analogs didn't have to be super warm to make it. Evens it out a bit, because I'm looking for a global-index signal. The analog composite which the maps cut off, actually have a good mix throughout the 75-year base period of older and recent years. I think that takes CC out of the equation, a little bit. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I actually did give a slight cold advantage to recent analogs, and warm advantage to older analogs when doing the weight. For example, 92-93, 93-94, 97-98, 00-01, and 02-03 were all cold Oct-Nov's (I did + and - analogs by the way). So I had a total of about 15 warm analogs, minus 15 cold analogs. But recent analogs didn't have to be super cold to make it, and 1950s analogs didn't have to be super warm to make it. Evens it out a bit, because I'm looking for a global-index signal. The analog composite which the maps cut off, actually have a good mix throughout the 75-year base period of older and recent years. I think that takes CC out of the equation, a little bit. 

it's a good start...

however, the curve looks like this,     ...which means 'slight' weighting is unfortunately hugely inadequate.   we need to derive a correction coefficient value that is related to the slope at either end of ...whatever  is the actual exponential rise

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's a good start...

however, the curve looks like this,     ...which means 'slight' weighting is unfortunately hugely inadequate.   we need to derive a correction coefficient value that is related to the slope at either end of ...whatever  is the actual exponential rise

70-80% of the cold Oct-Nov's remained cold and 70-80% of the warm Oct-Nov's remained warm, which is pretty even.  I think I had like 9 cold analogs 1992 and after, and 5 warm before the 1960s.  Obviously, you might want to add something like 0.30 correlation warm this year just because of how things are going. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

70-80% of the cold Oct-Nov's remained cold and 70-80% of the warm Oct-Nov's remained warm, which is pretty even.  I think I had like 9 cold analogs 1992 and after, and 5 warm before the 1960s.  Obviously, you might want to add something like 0.30 correlation warm this year just because of how things are going. 

that's not what i'm referring to

i mean, the unknown product that is being caused ( synergistically...) by cc contribution in recency, surpasses that which is contributory ... 1990 or back whence.

which is difficult to ascertain, but a closer approximation to the amount of 'weight' is more now than back then, and can be derived by the slope of the curve at either end.

either way, we agree.  lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's not what i'm referring to

i mean, the unknown product that is being caused ( synergistically...) by cc contribution in recency, surpasses that which is contributory ... 1990 or back whence.

which is difficult to ascertain, but a closer approximation to the amount of 'weight' is more now than back then, and can be derived by the slope of the curve at either end.

either way, we agree.  lol

Yeah I edited to say that a good amount of cold analogs were recent, some some warm analogs far away. 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2013, 2018, 2019 were all cold analogs used.  For the cold I put a minus sign to give the warm-analogs correlation going forward.  The Fall to Winter correlation is surprisingly consistent in the last 70 years. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah I edited to say that a good amount of cold analogs were recent, some some warm analogs far away. 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2002, and I think 2-3 others after 2002 were all cold analogs used.  For the cold I put a minus sign to give the warm-analogs correlation going forward.  The Fall to Winter correlation is surprisingly consistent in the last 70 years. 

81 at hfd and bos destroys the previous record for nov 6 set just as recently as 2022, by 5+ degrees f ! 

orh previous was 72, set both 2015 and 2022, now it is 79 at 1000k elevation. 

dps at hfd and bos are 55+ ...so this air mass is not just a kinetic fluke. it's 'thermodynamically historic' - if that's a metric

sorry for the history lesson but i'm just stunned by this one -

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

81 at hfd and bos destroys the previous record for nov 6 set just as recently as 2022, by 5+ degrees f ! 

orh previous was 72, set both 2015 and 2022, now it is 79 at 1000k elevation. 

dps at hfd and bos are 55+ ...so this air mass is not just a kinetic fluke. it's 'thermodynamically historic' - if that's a metric

sorry for the history lesson but i'm just stunned by this one -

Yeah, it's hot outside. I was immediately looking for the shade lol. I bet a lot of places will get up into the mid-80s today, on Nov 6th!  Remember, a day away from the coldest of the year, last Jan 28th, in DC it hit 80*!

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, it's hot outside. I was immediately looking for the shade lol. I bet a lot of places will get up into the mid-80s today, on Nov 6th!  Remember, a day away from the coldest of the year, last Jan 28th, in DC it hit 80*!

it was 80+ in mid february ( february!) twice (separate years) over the decade. 

it's like these are all 'attributable'

[michsnowfreak]

40 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

70-80% of the cold Oct-Nov's remained cold and 70-80% of the warm Oct-Nov's remained warm, which is pretty even.  I think I had like 9 cold analogs 1992 and after, and 5 warm before the 1960s.  Obviously, you might want to add something like 0.30 correlation warm this year just because of how things are going. 

We've had quite a few cold Novembers in recent years (8 of the past 12 colder than avg) but it's been striking how often novembers pattern has differed from winter the past decade here. For the heck if it, I looked at the top 20 warmest and coldest Novembers on record. Of the 20 warmest, 14 saw warmer than avg winters and 6 saw colder than avg winters. Of the 20 coldest, 10 saw warmer than avg winters and 10 colder than avg.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTW actually finished -0.4°F in 2021-22 but that had us a little over +1°C. Like I said though, always a grain of salt. That does look like a decent overall prediction by the Euro tho. Once we start getting snowstorms to track, it'll be interesting to see if Euro has regained its king status of several years ago.

The LES snowstorm details for the Great Lakes will probably come down to the state of the winter EPO. We haven had a +EPO dominant La Niña winter since 11-12. That resulted in a sharp LES gradient pattern. Buffalo finished in the top 5 lowest winters for snowfall while Marquette was only the 20th lowest. So improvement relative to the averages and absolutes the further north you went. Hopefully for your area this current +EPO isn’t a preview of the upcoming winter. We will probably have a better idea of more micro details like that once we get into the first week of December and see what the pattern and modeling indicates at that time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The LES snowstorm details for the Great Lakes will probably come down to the state of the winter EPO. We haven had a +EPO dominant La Niña winter since 11-12. That resulted in a sharp LES gradient pattern. Buffalo finished in the top 5 lowest winters for snowfall while Marquette was only the 20th lowest. So improvement relative to the averages and absolutes the further north you went. Hopefully for your area this current +EPO isn’t a preview of the upcoming winter. We will probably have a better idea of more micro details like that once we get into the first week of December and see what the pattern and modeling indicates at that time.

I do think there could be some -EPO periods this Winter, I'm not totally sold on a front-to-back +epo like some analog research's are suggesting, especially if we have a +NAO this Winter. 

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The LES snowstorm details for the Great Lakes will probably come down to the state of the winter EPO. We haven had a +EPO dominant La Niña winter since 11-12. That resulted in a sharp LES gradient pattern. Buffalo finished in the top 5 lowest winters for snowfall while Marquette was only the 20th lowest. So improvement relative to the averages and absolutes the further north you went. Hopefully for your area this current +EPO isn’t a preview of the upcoming winter. We will probably have a better idea of more micro details like that once we get into the first week of December and see what the pattern and modeling indicates at that time.

I was referring more to synoptic snowstorms. LES is fun of course, but since im outside the lake belts (Detroit suburbs), its more mood flakes, squalls, dustings, and 1-3" type events. Definitely adds to the mood, but its never a make or break for a winter like it is in Buffalo or Marquette. 

La Nina winters, good or bad, tend to have plenty of potential. Theres almost always an active storm track, almost always a roller coaster, and almost always a large temp gradient in the US. What this winter looks like when the final numbers are totaled remains to be seen, but Ive never in my life lived through a stagnant, non-changing winter in MI, and I certainly dont expect to do so in a la nina winter. Its a long season.

Even the beginning of December isnt going to tell me much for winter as a whole, just for December. Ive learned to always take winter one month at a time at the MOST. Im not very good when it comes to all these indicies at all, Im more of a climo/know the weather type. Its so early, as of this point, I really have to stick with what I said the other day - there are things I really like for this season, and things i really dont.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Already plotting the warmest Oct-Novembers on record for the CONUS, because this year could make a run at #1

Top 30 analogs, since 1948, Oct-Nov map:

 

Following December (30 analogs)

Following January

 

Following February (30 analogs)

Following March (30 analogs)

Oct-Nov ridge has a tendency to move east for the Winter months. 

Good work Chuck. I recently made a possible warmest Winter on Record call on my forum based on how all Drivers are aligned. Now, what you came up with increases my confidence. 

[Typhoon Tip]

for those of us sticking to the thread's title and intentions, from the mjo desk at cpc

 "La Niña conditions have been slow to evolve across the Pacific, and may be further disrupted by recent MJO activity. As the suppressed phase of the MJO crosses the Pacific over the next few weeks, however, a strong trade wind surge is favored, which may help further the evolution of the low frequency base state"

seeing roni in action there.  mjo is probably enhanced by blazing warm ocean-atmosphere coupled western to central pac transit of the wave space ( relative to climo...etc) and that heat flux is probably helping to 'charge' the total wave space strength.  --> suppressing the basal frequency/enso.  

there's other ways but this is just one in which climate plays a role in the daily modulation - see... you can, in a way, anticipate cc in 2-week forecast philosophy.    the other aspect in the total qualification of roni is probably the enhanced mid lat gradient causing ambient velocities to speed up.  that g-strophic wind surplus then effects the rosby wave stability .. that then acts as a destructive interference wrt the the climate position/correlations of ensos.    etc...   

these are contributor multi-sourced in the increasing frequency of poorly coupled enso states being observed over the past decade(s)

[George001]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it was 80+ in mid february ( february!) twice (separate years) over the decade. 

it's like these are all 'attributable'

Im actually wondering if we had a March 2012 redux in today’s climate if we would see 90s.