2024-2025 La Nina

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Only 3rd warmest? Even Tony Heller's fraudulent analysis has this October as 2nd warmest. As you can see, his analysis shows a cooling trend when, in fact, there's been a sharp warming trend in the actual data. So if he has this as 2nd warmest, surely it must be the warmest on record by a long shot.

 

One thing I'll say is I think the drought is artificially cooling these numbers. You can see around Pittsburgh, it was an absolute blow torch with high temperatures more than 6F above normal. But the overall ranking is unimpressive, because low temperatures were so much colder. I suspect this was the case in a lot of places. I do wonder what an analysis of maximum temperatures only would show.

 

[bluewave]

If a 20-40 meter Southeast Ridge 500 mb anomaly actually verified like the CanSIPS is showing , then the temperature anomalies would be much warmer. The 500 millibar anomaly chart is close to the 16-17 La Niña winter. Several locations that winter went 5+. We would need at least one month with a big mismatch pattern for the La Niña and -PDO to stay in the more moderate +1 to + 3 range where the warmest departures actually set up. 
 

 

[snowman19]

On 11/1/2024 at 3:34 PM, bluewave said:

If a 20-40 meter Southeast Ridge 500 mb anomaly actually verified like the CanSIPS is showing , then the temperature anomalies would be much warmer. The 500 millibar anomaly chart is close to the 16-17 La Niña winter. Several locations that winter went 5+. We would need at least one month with a big mismatch pattern for the La Niña and -PDO to stay in the more moderate +1 to + 3 range where the warmest departures actually set up. 
 

 

100%. Based on the D-F 500mb, the Cansips would be a torch winter

[George001]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If a 20-40 meter Southeast Ridge 500 mb anomaly actually verified like the CanSIPS is showing , then the temperature anomalies would be much warmer. The 500 millibar anomaly chart is close to the 16-17 La Niña winter. Several locations that winter went 5+. We would need at least one month with a big mismatch pattern for the La Niña and -PDO to stay in the more moderate +1 to + 3 range where the warmest departures actually set up. 
 

 

Yep that’s just very ugly. Hopefully it is completely wrong, verbatim I got a decent amount of snow in 16-17 but I do not want to take my chances with that pattern again. The extended stretches of warmth with small 1-2 week windows of opportunity isn’t going to cut it.

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yep that’s just very ugly. Hopefully it is completely wrong, verbatim I got a decent amount of snow in 16-17 but I do not want to take my chances with that pattern again. The extended stretches of warmth with small 1-2 week windows of opportunity isn’t going to cut it.

January, already the coldest climo month of the year, has the coldest anamolies of any month in the northern tier on both cansips and cfs.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One thing I'll say is I think the drought is artificially cooling these numbers. You can see around Pittsburgh, it was an absolute blow torch with high temperatures more than 6F above normal. But the overall ranking is unimpressive, because low temperatures were so much colder. I suspect this was the case in a lot of places. I do wonder what an analysis of maximum temperatures only would show.

 

The monthly max departures dominated over the mins due to the record high pressure, drought, and good radiational cooling conditions.

 

[qg_omega]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

Over the past 90 days it has been slightly warmer than average but not a torch. The first half of November does look quite warm though.

It’s been the warmest year on record in your location

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Only 3rd warmest? Even Tony Heller's fraudulent analysis has this October as 2nd warmest. As you can see, his analysis shows a cooling trend when, in fact, there's been a sharp warming trend in the actual data. So if he has this as 2nd warmest, surely it must be the warmest on record by a long shot.

 

I hadn't seen anyone so out of touch to suggest that Bluewave has a cold bias...bravo. Quite literally a first.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

My winter forecast (PHL):

Dec: -1 to 0

Jan: +8 to +10

Feb: -1 to 0

Mar: +3 to +5

Overall: +3 to +4

Snowfall: 12-20 inches

[TheClimateChanger]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The early unofficial ranking for October was 3rd warmest for the CONUS based on Prism temperatures. The official rankings should be out in a few weeks. 2016 is currently ranked 3rd and 2015 was 5th warmest. Our last top 10 coldest October was in 2009 which finished at 4th coldest. Several mid-Atlantic stations had their snowiest season on record following that cold October. It was the last one that several Southeast locations registered a top 10 coldest winter. 
 

 

Also third driest on record. I suspect it would have been the driest on record (possibly of any month) up until the last 24 hours when many areas in the middle of the country picked up 1-2” of rain.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also third driest on record. I suspect it would have been the driest on record (possibly of any month) up until the last 24 hours when many areas in the middle of the country picked up 1-2” of rain.

 

You can see the impact of that rain event here. Many areas were on track for one of the driest months on record, but wound up just a bit below normal.

 

[George001]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

It’s been the warmest year on record in your location

Yeah it has been an incredibly hot year overall. Summer was extremely hot and winter was near record warm as well, but I was referring to the past 90 days when claiming it wasn’t a torch. I know it has been a torch the last 2 winters, but I believe that things will be different this time based on some of the things I’ve seen this fall.

[snowman19]

Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar:

Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: 

NAO: Positive

AO: Positive

PNA: Negative/RNA

EPO: Positive

WPO: Neutral

PDO: Strongly negative

AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool

IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month

ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower

QBO: Strongly positive

Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity

MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop

Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area):

+2 - +4

Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): 

Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season*

Main analog: 2001-2002

Reasoning:

Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps

PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3), Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO

PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6)

NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it

WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time

AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing

QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan

Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO

Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM

Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around

Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar:

Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: 

NAO: Positive

AO: Positive

PNA: Negative/RNA

EPO: Positive

WPO: Neutral

PDO: Strongly negative

AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool

IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month

ENSO: (ONI) Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower

QBO: Strongly positive

Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity

MJO: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop

Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area):

+2 - +4

Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): 

Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season*

Main analog: 2001-2002

Reasoning:

Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps

PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3) , Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO

PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6)

NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it

WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time

AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing

QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan

Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO

Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM

Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around

Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks

great job, think your Dec - Mar average is too low given all the indices you list.

 

 

great job, think your dec - mar average is too low given all the indices you list predicted above.  Will be hard to not be 4+ given the above.

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

great job, think your dec - mar average is too low given all the indices you list predicted above.  Will be hard to not be 4+ given the above.

+20 

Huge fire season. Maybe all the smoke will hold temps down 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

great job, think your dec - mar average is too low given all the indices you list predicted above.  Will be hard to not be 4+ given the above.

Just ran the numbers at Buffalo. The last negative month was Nov at -0.7. This November looks very torchy. Likely the warmest year on record for us here. 

Dec: +8.0

Jan: +3.9

Feb: +8.4

Mar: +6.7

Apr: +4.4

May: +5.8

Jun: +3.3

Jul: +2.5

Aug: +0.7

Sep: +4.5

Oct: +3.0

[Typhoon Tip]

how come cc isn't factored in

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how come cc isn't factored in

I factored CC into my winter forecast. I even have a +8 to +10 month in there. Every winter since 2015-16 has had at least one uber warm month except for 2018-19 and 2020-21 (althought November 2020 was very warm).

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how come cc isn't factored in

You will love my outlook.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You will love my outlook.

+4 to +8, 2027 may be ok

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You will love my outlook.

you do realize half my intent there was a deep poke and stick wiggle into the hornet's nest   muah hahaha

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how come cc isn't factored in

I mentioned it before, but I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - +4  this winter busts too low given the very rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, wxisfun said:

Why are you even daily limited? You contribute quite a bit more to this board than 90% of posters I see on here.

I have been beating that drum for awhile now....are his posts one sided? Sure, but if that warrants 5 PPD, shit...take a look at my past couple of outlooks and limit me.

[GaWx]

 Based on the WBC daily PDOs for Oct vs Sep being very slightly more negative, I’m guessing Oct NOAA PDO will not quite reach the record low of -3.65 and will be -3.60 (vs Sep’s -3.54). 
 This will be only the 2nd time on record that there were back to back sub -3 months! The other time was way back in 1894, when there actually were three in a row.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just ran the numbers at Buffalo. The last negative month was Nov at -0.7. This November looks very torchy. Likely the warmest year on record for us here. 

Dec: +8.0

Jan: +3.9

Feb: +8.4

Mar: +6.7

Apr: +4.4

May: +5.8

Jun: +3.3

Jul: +2.5

Aug: +0.7

Sep: +4.5

Oct: +3.0

Yeah, I was at Buffalo for the eclipse, and the last full day I was there (April 9), it was already almost 80 degrees. [I was glad to get the last bit of snow on April 5.]

Here, at PHL, Dec-July was very warm. It was August and September that was cool. October was a return to very warm, and it looks like November will be the same. The last time we had that temperature profile during the fall was 2020-21, and we got a decent winter out of it.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I was at Buffalo for the eclipse, and the last full day I was there (April 9), it was already almost 80 degrees. [I was glad to get the last bit of snow on April 5.]

Here, at PHL, Dec-July was very warm. It was August and September that was cool. October was a return to very warm, and it looks like November will be the same. The last time we had that temperature profile during the fall was 2020-21, and we got a decent winter out of it.

Fall dryness/wetness has a much better correlation to the winter pattern than does temperatures

@donsutherland1

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Fall dryness/wetness has a much better correlation to the winter pattern than does temperatures

@donsutherland1

Fall 1998 and fall 2001 were the big drought years here. Of course, we know about the torch winter of 2001-02. Although a very warm winter, 1998-99 had its moments. We even had a White Christmas and 3 good weeks of winter before the shut-off in mid-January. We also got some snow in mid-March. 98-99 was pretty much a similar pattern to 16-17.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 11/1/2024 at 12:34 PM, bluewave said:

If a 20-40 meter Southeast Ridge 500 mb anomaly actually verified like the CanSIPS is showing , then the temperature anomalies would be much warmer. The 500 millibar anomaly chart is close to the 16-17 La Niña winter. Several locations that winter went 5+. We would need at least one month with a big mismatch pattern for the La Niña and -PDO to stay in the more moderate +1 to + 3 range where the warmest departures actually set up. 
 

 

however the baseline quasi persistent/super synopsis of the hemisphere gets to that Can of who knows what it's SIPing, 500 mb distribution on whole aside, just in quadrature that would have to be a historically positive north atlantic oscillation mode to put it softly.  in fact ... so much so that i question any likeliness for that to succeed.  

the problem with 'SIP's distribution is that it must be all but entirely discounting any negative phase state from ever happening.   the nao is a very stochastic field, more so than any other index - few reasons for that..  but that variability therein would have to never be variable, if it is always positive.   just sayn'

that would be truly remarkable success.  i don't doubt ( or support either way ) a +nao predominating season, it's the amount of that.  if a 3-mon mean were 70% +, that would probably nearing the top positives in history;  that CanSIPs would need it to be there or exceeding that to get a 3-mon mean that coherent.  

it'll be an interesting to monitor. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

however the baseline quasi persistent/super synopsis of the hemisphere gets to that Can of who knows what it's SIPing, 500 mb distribution on whole aside, just in quadrature that would have to be a historically positive north atlantic oscillation mode to put it softly.  in fact ... so much so that i question any likeliness for that to succeed.  

the problem with 'SIP's distribution is that it must be all but entirely discounting any negative phase state from ever happening.   the nao is a very stochastic field, more so than any other index - few reasons for that..  but that variability therein would have to never be variable, if it is always positive.   just sayn'

that would be truly remarkable success.  i don't doubt ( or support either way ) a +nao predominating season, it's the amount of that.  if it were 70% of the time, that would probably nearing the top positives in history and that CanSIPs would need it to be there or exceeding to get a three -monthly mean that coherent.  

it'll be an interesting to monitor. 

The one constant with the CanSIPS recent winter forecasts has been that the actual area where the ridge axis set up was much warmer than those 2m temperature forecasts. The same goes for most of the other seasonal guidance. It could be that once a standing wave gets going that it’s very hard for the models beyond the medium range to keep pace with the actual temperature departures. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I was at Buffalo for the eclipse, and the last full day I was there (April 9), it was already almost 80 degrees. [I was glad to get the last bit of snow on April 5.]

Here, at PHL, Dec-July was very warm. It was August and September that was cool. October was a return to very warm, and it looks like November will be the same. The last time we had that temperature profile during the fall was 2020-21, and we got a decent winter out of it.

We drove to Ohio for the eclipse as it was too cloudy in Buffalo. Had full sunshine down there for it at Sandusky. I had 125" of snow last year but only because we had a large lake effect event of 77" in 4 days. Otherwise a pretty warm/dry winter. The official recording station at the airport had 71", 2 feet below normal.