snowman19 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 We are about to see massive strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex during November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 0Z Euro ensemble mean next 2 wks: still well below normal US pop weighted HDDs (~2/3 of the normal) and well above normal CDDs (~4 times the norm): normally US HDDs are ~23 times CDDs during this period but this fcast has HDDs only ~3.5 times CDDs. HDDs are rising and are forecasted to get to almost normal on 11/2 and 11/9, but then they fall back and still are not averaging anywhere near normal overall. Instead, the fcast has HDDs averaging a whopping nearly ~3.5 BN/day. In other words, the pop weighted US is forecasted to average a whopping ~3.5F/day AN for the period 10/31 through 11/13! The fcast averages 7.4 HDD/day, which is the normal US pop wted HDDs for Oct 24th. That means that this period overall is forecasted to be at US HDD levels from ~2 weeks earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected I think the past decade or so has aptly demonstrated that Pacific cooperation is more important than blocking in this stout, CC enhanced PAC cold phase. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's encouraging seeing the MJO being able to get into 8-1-2 with some strength. the TPV being strong will make Greenland blocking harder to come by, which has been expected I bet the Nov 5th-15th period will trend colder on guidance for the northeast. Wouldn’t even be shocked to see some flurries at some point at my location at 3800 feet on the NC/Tenn border. We had about a half inch Oct 15th (3 or 4 inches 700 feet up the mountain). Been unbelievably warm since. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 31 Author Share Posted October 31 1 hour ago, chris21 said: I bet the Nov 5th-15th period will trend colder on guidance for the northeast. Wouldn’t even be shocked to see some flurries at some point at my location at 3800 feet on the NC/Tenn border. We had about a half inch Oct 15th (3 or 4 inches 700 feet up the mountain). Been unbelievably warm since. I’m not sure, are phases 7-2 cold in the east in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Mild has been fully expected by me for Nov and at least Dec. This map is actually not that dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 1 hour ago, chris21 said: I bet the Nov 5th-15th period will trend colder on guidance for the northeast. Wouldn’t even be shocked to see some flurries at some point at my location at 3800 feet on the NC/Tenn border. We had about a half inch Oct 15th (3 or 4 inches 700 feet up the mountain). Been unbelievably warm since. 8-1-2 start becoming colder the later into November we get. As for flurries, I was just referring to my location which averages 40 plus inches of snow a year over the past twenty years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Euro Weeklies through mid Dec no change: very strong SPV, solidly AN temps E 2/3 of US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: Euro Weeklies through mid Dec no change: very strong SPV, solidly AN temps E 2/3 of US. Makes sense because the MJO will be back in the warm phases by then. It’s late Dec onward that I’m watching for. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the past decade or so has aptly demonstrated that Pacific cooperation is more important than blocking in this stout, CC enhanced PAC cold phase. Yeah, probably best we can hope for is an occasional +TNH Pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 The Oct 31st CANSIPS is the 3rd run in a row with a Modoki El Niño getting established in the summer of 2025. Now if only the W Pac marine heatwave/extreme -PDO would subside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 6 hours ago, GaWx said: The Oct 31st CANSIPS is the 3rd run in a row with a Modoki El Niño getting established in the summer of 2025. Now if only the W Pac marine heatwave/extreme -PDO would subside. I think the Modoki el nino only happens if the -PDO subsides. If we're still in -PDO, we're most likely in ENSO neutral or la nina. 2 el ninos in 3 years is rare, much less impossible in -PDO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 16 hours ago, GaWx said: Mild has been fully expected by me for Nov and at least Dec. This map is actually not that dry. The red flag was that the CFSV2 got warmer and warmer with November in the final days of October. The end of the month is when the CFS actually becomes accurate in sniffing out the following month. My guess is that the east coast drought continues and November ends up a well above normal month (temps)…..possibly a top 10 above normal November…. @michsnowfreak Yes it was very consistent with a warm November but got warmer and warmer in the final week leading up to today, which gives me even more confidence that this month is possibly going to torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 No reason to not go record warm every month, we have been locked in for the past 5 winters and the maritime heat wave due to CC has fundamentally changed our winters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 @bluewave Ensembles now digging a massive -PNA out west come mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Happy November all. Really is when North America starts descending into winter. Not sure about every place, but here in Detroit and most other midwest/Lakes areas, no month of the year has a larger difference in average temperature from the first to last day of the month than November. The next closest is May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The red flag was that the CFSV2 got warmer and warmer with November in the final days of October. The end of the month is when the CFS actually becomes accurate in sniffing out the following month. My guess is that the east coast drought continues and November ends up a well above normal month (temps)…..possibly a top 10 above normal November…. The CFS was actually quite steady on a mild November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 1 Author Share Posted November 1 3 hours ago, qg_omega said: No reason to not go record warm every month, we have been locked in for the past 5 winters and the maritime heat wave due to CC has fundamentally changed our winters. Over the past 90 days it has been slightly warmer than average but not a torch. The first half of November does look quite warm though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Happy November all. Really is when North America starts descending into winter. Not sure about every place, but here in Detroit and most other midwest/Lakes areas, no month of the year has a larger difference in average temperature from the first to last day of the month than November. The next closest is May. it would be nice if nature followed the intents and purposes of human designs like that. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 The early unofficial ranking for October was 3rd warmest for the CONUS based on Prism temperatures. The official rankings should be out in a few weeks. 2016 is currently ranked 3rd and 2015 was 5th warmest. Our last top 10 coldest October was in 2009 which finished at 4th coldest. Several mid-Atlantic stations had their snowiest season on record following that cold October. It was the last one that several Southeast locations registered a top 10 coldest winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: The red flag was that the CFSV2 got warmer and warmer with November in the final days of October. The end of the month is when the CFS actually becomes accurate in sniffing out the following month. My guess is that the east coast drought continues and November ends up a well above normal month (temps)…..possibly a top 10 above normal November…. @michsnowfreak Yes it was very consistent with a warm November but got warmer and warmer in the final week leading up to today, which gives me even more confidence that this month is possibly going to torch The population weighted US will continue to cool in the absolute sense as it almost has to, but it is forecasted to continue running about half a month behind climo averages, which is quite an anomaly for the country as a whole during a period of the most rapid fall in climo for dailies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 The new TT CANSIPS precip map for DJF is mainly BN for the E seaboard and especially for the SE US (pretty similar to prior runs)(New England is only slightly BN to NN)(Mich/Midwest is NN). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 The new TT CANSIPS is the mildest run yet and suggests a mild winter for the E/SE/SC US though Michigan is NN to BN. Regardless, there will very likely be at least a couple of BN periods interspersed as is the case just about every winter due to typical ups and downs but when, how intense, and for how long? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: it would be nice if nature following the intents and purposes of human designs like that. lol Lol well I meant climo wise. The decline of average temperature during November is greater than any month of the year (also greater than the rise of any month of the year, though May is fairly close). While I personally am ready for snow, I'm fine with a mild November. Locally weve seen more cold than mild Novembers the last decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 18 minutes ago, GaWx said: The new CANSIPS is the mildest run yet and suggests a mild winter for the E/SE/SC US though Michigan is NN to BN. Regardless, there will very likely be at least a couple of BN periods interspersed as is the case just about every winter due to typical ups and downs but when, how intense, and for how long? Yeah, looks to basically continue the persistent Pattern. When you factor in the strong - PDO, +QBO and Nina along with unfavorable NATL. SST'S that look is what you'd probably expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: The new CANSIPS is the mildest run yet and suggests a mild winter for the E/SE/SC US though Michigan is NN to BN. Regardless, there will very likely be at least a couple of BN periods interspersed as is the case just about every winter due to typical ups and downs but when, how intense, and for how long? Interesting as that doesn't quite match with the wxbell cansips. In any event. Not a bad look here. And even for most of the Northeast that's only +1-1.5°C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The early unofficial ranking for October was 3rd warmest for the CONUS based on Prism temperatures. The official rankings should be out in a few weeks. 2016 is currently ranked 3rd and 2015 was 5th warmest. Our last top 10 coldest October was in 2009 which finished at 4th coldest. Several mid-Atlantic stations had their snowiest season on record following that cold October. It was the last one that several Southeast locations registered a top 10 coldest winter. Only 3rd warmest? Even Tony Heller's fraudulent analysis has this October as 2nd warmest. As you can see, his analysis shows a cooling trend when, in fact, there's been a sharp warming trend in the actual data. So if he has this as 2nd warmest, surely it must be the warmest on record by a long shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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