2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

In order for the MJO relationship to work again this year, all the seasonal models are going to have to be way off for December. The last 2 years when the MJO 5 amplitude was closer to this strong in October were 2020 and 2017. Right now none of the forecasts models look similar to those two years in December. The key to those seasons was a snowy and at times colder December around NYC with a mismatch pattern going against the La Niña and -PDO. Then the whole winter still averaged warmer than normal, but not as warm as our recent warmer La Niña winters like 16-17, and 22-23. Snowfall was much better those years. The fact that the La Niña is so weak now like 16-17 instead of the stronger years like 17-18 and 20-21 also is different  since our best La Niña winters since 10-11 have been stronger.And it was those stronger La Niña Octobers that had the stronger MJO activity. Not such a weak event having a stronger MJO October response this year.  This a reversal from 95-96 to 08-09 when the weaker La Ninas have been the better winters.

So while the seasonal models haven’t been the most reliable during recent winters, I am not ready to yet buy that there is going to be a big mismatch right out of the gate in December. Remember, the good La Niña winters start out with great frontloaded results in December and then revisit it again at some point later on. They don’t start out warm and snowless in December in NYC and then turn great later on. So I am going to view these October MJO results with caution and will need to see the the models as we get closer into December really diverge from the seasonal forecasts. Otherwise it will be a case of this winter following the weaker La Niña script with warmer and less snow December and the early October MJO indicator not working for the first time since 2010. 

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger??

I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regarding December. I don't even recall December 2020 being that great where I am. December 2019 had a great event....

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, roardog said:

This is a great thread but it’s funny at times. The stronger MJO rotation through 4,5 and 6 in October was talked about as a positive a couple of months ago for the East Coast in December. Now that it’s happened, the talk is how the seasonal models show nothing like the good December pattern those rotations have brought in the past. However, whenever the seasonal models show a good or decent East Coast pattern, it’s always repeated about how unreliable seasonal models are. I guess you guys just can’t win.lol

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger??

I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regard December. I don't December 2020 being that great where I am.

 

Exactly...kind of what I was getting at. All we hear about is how phase 5 runs the world, but now that the October rule has worked out....weak sauce.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think this just proves that @bluewaveis actually human..as bright as he is. He just won't support a respectable winter in the NE again until it actually happens at this point, but I would prefer he just say that then make a subtle effort to move the goalposts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My opinion on this is that La Nina itself if weak sauce in that its not the driving mechanism, however, the warm pool baseline is mimicking a stronger La Nina, so it doesn't really matter...same end result. If we are being consistent with ourselves, then that should lead to a period of disconnect from said baseline due to the ebb and flow of the wave strength.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My opinion on this is that La Nina itself if weak sauce in that its not the driving mechanism, however, the warm pool baseline is mimicking a stronger La Nina, so it doesn't really matter...same end result. If we are being consistent with ourselves, then that should lead to a period of disconnect from said baseline do to the ebb and flow of the wave strength.

A real La Nina is actually cold for the CONUS. Colder than El Nino. A lot of the stuff in the western Pacific has cluttered the raw ENSO effect in recent years. And a lot of people even believe that PNA is the main effect. It's actually the North Pacific High

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A real La Nina is actually cold for the CONUS. Colder than El Nino. A lot of the stuff in the western Pacific has cluttered the raw ENSO effect in recent years. And a lot of people even believe that PNA is the main effect. It's actually the North Pacific High

CONUS as a whole, but the east will take a true El Nino over La Nina...and I say "true " El Nino because I am not referring to that hellish hybrid that we had last year.

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger??

I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regarding December. I don't even recall December 2020 being that great where I am. December 2019 had a great event....

 

The inconsistency is the fact that we haven’t gotten such a strong La Niña signal before in October with the RONI, ONI, or any other La Niña metric as low as it is. Past La Niña years with such a strong -PDO were much more robust in the Nina SSTs. So we are getting multiple disconnects across the board including the early MJO indicator.

December 2020 was the best for NYC snowfall in over a decade. Some would argue it was the best December since 2010 but not of that magnitude of greatness. The unusual south based block resulted in NYC finishing warmer than average at +1.7 even with a trough in the East.

I can remember commenting in the NYC thread how the October MJO was acting more like we saw in 17-18 and 10-11 later in October. But then the historic November warmth arrived exceeding 2015. So many back in the NY thread were very concerned about the winter after seeing so much November warmth like we saw in the Niña background years like 2011 and 2001. 

Then the Euro started forecasting a great looking December pattern as we got closer to the start of December. This was pretty much the opposite of the seasonal model issued back on November 5th. So the early MJO indicator beat the Euro seasonal forecast. But that was a much stronger La Niña than this year as per the RONI and ONI metrics. The -PDO wasn’t as strong as we are seeing now. So perhaps the strong La Niña influence is being realized more in the -PDO index this time than at any other time in the past.

The October Euro forecast for December doesn’t look so great. It’s got a coast to coast warm ridge across the U.S. We’ll wait to see what it comes up with on November 5th. If it continues along the same lines as October 5th, then we’ll need as big a miss as it had back in 2020 for the early MJO indicator to keep working as it has each La Niña year since 10-11.

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=fr

Current Euro 500 mb forecast for December

 

2020 forecast big miss to the delight of the winter fans around NYC

Forecast 

 

Verification

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CONUS as a whole, but the east will take a true El Nino over La Nina...and I say "true " El Nino because I am not referring to that hellish hybrid that we had last year.

Yeah, the biggest anomalies are over the Midwest, then it neutralizes further east. Stronger STJ gives true El Nino over La Nina an edge for east coast snow lovers. I personally like weeks in the 20's with 2-6" snow events. That's what you'll get possibly in a La Nina if the NAO cooperates. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The inconsistency is the fact that we haven’t gotten such a strong La Niña signal before in October with the RONI, ONI, or any other La Niña metric as low as it is. Past La Niña years with such a strong -PDO were much more robust in the Nina SSTs. So we are getting multiple disconnects across the board including the early MJO indicator.

December 2020 was the best for NYC snowfall in over a decade. Some would argue it was the best December since 2010 but not of that magnitude of greatness. The unusual south based block resulted in NYC finishing warmer than average at +1.7 even with a trough in the East.

I can remember commenting in the NYC thread how the October MJO was acting more like we saw in 17-18 and 10-11 later in October. But then the historic November warmth arrived exceeding 2015. So many back in the NY thread were very concerned about the winter after seeing so much November warmth like we saw in the Niña background years like 2011 and 2001. 

Then the Euro started forecasting a great looking December pattern as we got closer to the start of December. This was pretty much the opposite of the seasonal model issued back on November 5th. So the early MJO indicator beat the Euro seasonal forecast. but that was a much stronger La Niña than this year as per the RONI and ONI metrics. But the -PDO wasn’t as strong as we are seeing now. So perhaps the strong La Niña influence is being realized more in the -PDO index this time than at any other time in the past.

The October Euro forecast for December doesn’t look so great. It’s got a coast to coast warm ridge across the U.S. We’ll wait to see what it comes up with on November 5th. If it continues along the same lines as October 5th, then we’ll need as big a miss as it had back in 2020 for the early MJO indicator to keep working as it has each La Niña year since 10-11.

Current Euro 500 mb forecast for December

 

2020 forecast big miss to the delight of the winter fans around NYC

Forecast 

 

Verification

 

Thanks for the clarification. I expect RONI to peak in moderate territory...tough call, agreed. I would be fine with a 2021-2022 type of result or even 2022-2023 with a bit less amplification out west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, the biggest anomalies are over the Midwest, then it neutralizes further east. Stronger STJ gives true El Nino over La Nina an edge for east coast snow lovers. I personally like weeks in the 20's with 2-6" snow events. That's what you'll get possibly in a La Nina if the NAO cooperates. 

Yea, I'll take the currier and ives xmas week or on the heels of a big dog, but otherwise my eyes would glaze over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least its not clearly a lost cause, which is all we can ask for these days.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least its not clearly a lost cause, which is all we can ask for these days.

 Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? I can’t remember a single late Oct when the winter was already determined to be a lost cause at this BB and any others. I don’t mean by any particular individual but rather based on the general consensus/discussion.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? 

In retrospect or when looking ahead? Lol

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In retrospect or when looking ahead? Lol

Looking ahead of course. 
 
I challenge anyone with the time to go back to similar forecasting threads as of mid to late October and see. If anyone were to find something to the contrary, I’ll be happy to note that year as an exception. Maybe they’ll be found. But until that is done, I’m going to remain skeptical. Again, I’m not talking about a particular person but rather the general discussion/consensus. No point in going through 2023-4 as that clearly had tons of optimism to not at all be a lost cause for the bulk of the E US mild/low in wintry including by me. Even super-strong El Niño winters are usually assumed to have good potential for at least normal temps in the SE as well as a shot at a big winter storm.

 When I say “lost cause”, I mean both well above normal temps and well BN wintry precip in most of the E US including SE US/E Midwest. I think that will be hard to find as of this early. How can it ever already be a lost cause with the uncertainties that pretty much always exist?

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It sure has…over 250 and climbing. There’s a chance we go over 300

 

 

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

 

[snowman19]

48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

 

I’ll leave that one to @GaWx  He’s done a bunch of research into it

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? I can’t remember a single late Oct when the winter was already determined to be a lost cause at this BB and any others. I don’t mean by any particular individual but rather based on the general consensus/discussion.

You are taking what I said too literally, but some years were close...especially south of New England. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

 

Its makes big polar blocking less likely.

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are taking what I said too literally, but some years were close...especially south of New England. 

 Fair enough. Thanks, Ray.

 But I’ll ask you and the readers in general: Can anyone point to a general E US winter discussion thread that as of late Oct was heavily dominated by pessimism for most of the E US? I’m sincerely wondering about this. I feel that some level of optimism or at least lack of pessimism is very normal at wx enthusiast BBs this far ahead of the start of winter even when models don’t look good. Maybe there is an exception or two. Please point them out if anyone knows.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger??

I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regarding December. I don't even recall December 2020 being that great where I am. December 2019 had a great event....

 

While the mother of all grinches melted it with surgical precision in time for Christmas morning, that was a bigger snow event region wide on 12/17  than we'd seen in quite some time in December.  I think that's the one that dropped 12-16 widespread in SNE with up to 3 feet in parts of NH into the southern tier of NY state (BGM).  What was your total for that event?  I know 2019 gave you a 20 spot roughly in the first few days of the month but my recollection is not much after the first week.  So from a snow perspective, 12/20 was better than most Decembers but the holiday melt down put a bitter taste in many mouths.  And the 12-16 in SNE was the only significant event of the month.  Nevertheless, temperature departure was a modest +1.3 at BOS.  Despite the negatives, I'd take that this year.  

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll leave that one to @GaWx  He’s done a bunch of research into it

What Ray said/implied about the tendency for a lack of dominant polar blocking in winter when SSN is high (especially -NAO blocking since the 1980s per my research).

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Looking ahead of course. 
 
I challenge anyone with the time to go back to similar forecasting threads as of mid to late October and see. If anyone were to find something to the contrary, I’ll be happy to note that year as an exception. Maybe they’ll be found. But until that is done, I’m going to remain skeptical. Again, I’m not talking about a particular person but rather the general discussion/consensus. No point in going through 2023-4 as that clearly had tons of optimism to not at all be a lost cause for the bulk of the E US mild/low in wintry including by me. Even super-strong El Niño winters are usually assumed to have good potential for at least normal temps in the SE as well as a shot at a big winter storm.

 When I say “lost cause”, I mean both well above normal temps and well BN wintry precip in most of the E US including SE US/E Midwest. I think that will be hard to find as of this early. How can it ever already be a lost cause with the uncertainties that pretty much always exist?

I know. I was being a desperate weenie.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

While the mother of all grinches melted it with surgical precision in time for Christmas morning, that was a bigger snow event region wide on 12/17  than we'd seen in quite some time in December.  I think that's the one that dropped 12-16 widespread in SNE with up to 3 feet in parts of NH into the southern tier of NY state (BGM).  What was your total for that event?  I know 2019 gave you a 20 spot roughly in the first few days of the month but my recollection is not much after the first week.  So from a snow perspective, 12/20 was better than most Decembers but the holiday melt down put a bitter taste in many mouths.  And the 12-16 in SNE was the only significant event of the month.  Nevertheless, temperature departure was a modest +1.3 at BOS.  Despite the negatives, I'd take that this year.  

I think I had about 1' in that. Yea, I guess that month was okay...just didn't stand out in my recollection. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Fair enough. Thanks, Ray.

 But I’ll ask you and the readers in general: Can anyone point to a general E US winter discussion thread that as of late Oct was heavily dominated by pessimism for most of the E US? I’m sincerely wondering about this. I feel that some level of optimism or at least lack of pessimism is very normal at wx enthusiast BBs this far ahead of the start of winter even when models don’t look good. Maybe there is an exception or two. Please point them out if anyone knows.

I guess I should have said "At least we can still see a pathway to a decent winter at this juncture"...that is really what I meant.

[George001]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I had about 1' in that. Yea, I guess that month was okay...just didn't stand out in my recollection. 

I remember that storm, it had DC to NYC getting buried and my area being on the northern fringe about 4 days out, and then the models shifted hundreds of miles north in the short range. I ended up with around 15, some areas in NNE that were expected to get 2-4 inches got 40 inches. That was a rollercoaster to track 

[mitchnick]

In case anyone cares, I  think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days.

Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. 

Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

TT Cfs2:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

[SethToast]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In case anyone cares, I  think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days.

Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. 

Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

TT Cfs2:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

Is there a way to see individual runs? I'm curious as to if the results on the TT site is just because of noise or if there's been a consistent increase.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

In case anyone cares, I  think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days.

Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. 

Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

TT Cfs2:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

Its dumb to run seasonal guidance that frequently.

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, SethToast said:

Is there a way to see individual runs? I'm curious as to if the results on the TT site is just because of noise or if there's been a consistent increase.

I think WeatherBell offers daily runs, but that may be on the Control run. Not sure as I haven't had a WB account in years. 

[mitchnick]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its dumb to run seasonal guidance that frequently.

Only if it keeps getting warmer!