GaWx Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 23 hours ago, GaWx said: Today’s AO: +3.4 A new record obliterating high AO peak for Oct is still on track over the next two days with high +4s to near +5 still progged by GEFS. Current record +3.754 set 10/24/2008 (Oct records have been late in the month more often than early, which is intuitive to me). This new record will also be higher than the Nov record of +4.544 (11/2/1978). Followup: Today’s AO is as has been well forecasted by GEFS easily a new record high for Oct back to 1950 at +4.578. The old record was 3.754 set 10/24/2008. The GEFS is still suggesting it could peak a little higher tomorrow before starting a plunge. There’s little correlation to the subsequent mean DJF AO. Winters following Octobers with very high AO spikes have varied from strong + to neutral to solid - with avg AO of only +0.1 for all of the subsequent winters combined. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 On 10/22/2024 at 10:18 AM, GaWx said: Followup: Today’s AO is as has been well forecasted by GEFS easily a new record high for Oct back to 1950 at +4.578. The old record was 3.754 set 10/24/2008. The GEFS is still suggesting it could peak a little higher tomorrow before starting a plunge. There’s little correlation to the subsequent mean DJF AO. Winters following Octobers with very high AO spikes have varied from strong + to neutral to solid - with avg AO of only +0.1 for all of the subsequent winters combined. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv Today as expected was the 2nd day in a row setting a new record high Oct. AO. It was 4.873. The old Oct record high was set yesterday at 4.578. Before 2024, the Oct. record was only 3.754. The 4.873 also sets a new record high for met. autumn. The old record was 4.578 set yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 @Bluewave So shocking, MJO 4-6 dominating. Here we go again…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Broke the record for +AO today and yesterday, as Gawx has been pointing out. Broke it by 120% Here is how +AO in October rolls forward to the Winter December January Been getting a lot of stuff for a +AO/+NAO January February Once again we have a major +NAO/AO event happening a short time after a flux in solar activity. This wasn't really modeled to be so strong in the medium-range/long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 24 Author Share Posted October 24 The CFS shifted back to cold for Jan (still warm in Dec and Feb). Lots of flip flopping… I’m taking anything these models say right now with a grain of salt, just too early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 5 hours ago, GaWx said: JAS 2022 -1.00 JAS 2024 -0.64 Decent difference in tri monthly RONI....however, I agree on the moderate peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 The latest CFSv2 forecast for November indicates that most of the CONUS will be warmer than normal. Thus, the question becomes what kind of winter would be likely to follow such a November. With the December 2024-February 2025 Relative ENSO Region 3.4 Index (RONI) likely to average -0.500 or below, it makes some sense to examine how CONUS winters have fared in the past with winter values of -0.500 or below following widespread November warmth in the CONUS (1951-2010 baseline) since 1949-50. The Composite Temperature Anomalies for North America (1991-2020 baseline, as the larger period was not available) were as follows: November: December-February: The most recent C3S Multi-Ensemble Forecast for December 2024-2025: It should be noted that even warm winters have often seen periods of cold. In cases, there have been some periods of severe cold. Overall, the forecast winter anomalies are reasonably in line with those that have followed the kind of November that is forecast when the winter RONI averaged -0.500 or below. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest CFSv2 forecast for November indicates that most of the CONUS will be warmer than normal. Thus, the question becomes what kind of winter would be likely to follow such a November. With the December 2024-February 2025 Relative ENSO Region 3.4 Index (RONI) likely to average -0.500 or below, it makes some sense to examine how CONUS winters have fared in the past with winter values of -0.500 or below following widespread November warmth in the CONUS (1951-2010 baseline) since 1949-50. The Composite Temperature Anomalies for North America (1991-2020 baseline, as the larger period was not available) were as follows: November: December-February: The most recent C3S Multi-Ensemble Forecast for December 2024-2025: It should be noted that even warm winters have often seen periods of cold. In cases, there have been some periods of severe cold. Overall, the forecast winter anomalies are reasonably in line with those that have followed the kind of November that is forecast when the winter RONI averaged -0.500 or below. Went over this before, but it's worth repeating. The Cfs2, as all other seasonal modeling, has December as a dumpster fire, which all have acknowledged. The question is what about January and February, as the Dec-Feb average is and has been skewed by December's warmth. This can be seen on the monthly temps link below. I am going verbatim just as your post, and clearly January and February are not as bad is December, and never have been for that matter for the last month. Whether the Cfs2 and other modeling is accurate is whole different discussion. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 12 hours ago, mitchnick said: Went over this before, but it's worth repeating. The Cfs2, as all other seasonal modeling, has December as a dumpster fire, which all have acknowledged. The question is what about January and February, as the Dec-Feb average is and has been skewed by December's warmth. This can be seen on the monthly temps link below. I am going verbatim just as your post, and clearly January and February are not as bad is December, and never have been for that matter for the last month. Whether the Cfs2 and other modeling is accurate is whole different discussion. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html On a month-to-month basis, it remains to be seen how things will ultimately fare. The CFSv2 now shows January as having the potential to have more widespread cold than February. Much can still change between now and the final forecasts. Overall, confidence that the winter as a whole will be mild (though I don't see it being as warm as the past two in the East) has increased. There will be some opportunities for cold and snow--more than the past two winters unless there are some big hostile changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Typical Nina/-IOD forcing developing @Bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Hmm looks like a nino pattern after the first few days of November. Mjo 8 thru 2? I wonder if this will verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 6 minutes ago, binbisso said: Hmm looks like a nino pattern after the first few days of November. Mjo 8 thru 2? I wonder if this will verify. I think November will have a really nice stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Will be interesting to see if this wave can go 8 thru 3. Hasn't really happened in late fall and winter the last few years. Euro says no 2nd image. Gfs 1st image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think November will have a really nice stretch. Thoughts on the +EPO/Bering Sea vortex? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Typical Nina/-IOD forcing developing @Bluewave The extreme +EPO pattern this month looks like a blend of influences. La Niña background forcing, marine heatwave east of Japan/-PDO, and some MJO. Notice how the MJO 6 composite is much weaker than the pattern we got. So the other influences are at work. Also notice how well defined the warm pool near Japan and the Cold SST pool near Alaska has become with the +EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thoughts on the +EPO/Bering Sea vortex? The month is going to be warm in the mean....no question. Just saying there could be a colder stretch in there if the MJO cooperates before it warms up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The month is going to be warm in the mean....no question. Just saying there could be a colder stretch in there if the MJO cooperates before it warms up again. It would be nice if the next mjo wave starts mid November in phase 4 and makes it to 8 and 1 by early-mid December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 4 minutes ago, binbisso said: It would be nice if the next mjo wave starts mid November in phase 4 and makes it to 8 and 1 by early-mid December. Looks like it could try to sneak into the better phases at a low amplitude in November, but it would probaly need to be stronger to not get washed out by the baseline warm pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 23 minutes ago, binbisso said: Will be interesting to see if this wave can go 8 thru 3. Hasn't really happened in late fall and winter the last few years. Euro says no 2nd image. Gfs 1st image Fwiw, Cfs2 and and bias corrected Bomm get it thru 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think November will have a really nice stretch. I defintely should have been more measured with this statement. I can see how it could have a colder stetch, but we would need some breaks. Anway, its not like I was referring to an early east coast snowstorm or anything...don't want to be misleading. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think November will have a really nice stretch. Looks like historic warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Looks like historic warmth In the mean, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 1 hour ago, binbisso said: Will be interesting to see if this wave can go 8 thru 3. Hasn't really happened in late fall and winter the last few years. Euro says no 2nd image. Gfs 1st image Either way, we should do another pass through 4-6 in December, before we take aim at the colder phases late Dec through mid-Jan, give or take a week or so. That will be the window of opportunity I’m watching for the MA. The initial pass through 8-1-2 (weak or not) might yield some results for great lakes through interior NE, but just seasonal cool weather for the MA. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 16 hours ago, mitchnick said: Went over this before, but it's worth repeating. The Cfs2, as all other seasonal modeling, has December as a dumpster fire, which all have acknowledged. The question is what about January and February, as the Dec-Feb average is and has been skewed by December's warmth. This can be seen on the monthly temps link below. I am going verbatim just as your post, and clearly January and February are not as bad is December, and never have been for that matter for the last month. Whether the Cfs2 and other modeling is accurate is whole different discussion. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Actually I wouldnt call December a dumpster fire. Your area looks 0.5-1C warmer than avg on the CFS for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually I wouldnt call December a dumpster fire. Your area looks 0.5-1C warmer than avg on the CFS for December. Which is probably enough to constitute a dumpser fire in the lower terrain of the mid atlantic during December as it relates to snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 25 Author Share Posted October 25 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which is probably enough to constitute a dumpser fire in the lower terrain of the mid atlantic during December as it relates to snowfall. Yeah the lower terrain of the mid Atlantic needs a lot of help in December. Even my area December climo kinda sucks the first half of the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually I wouldnt call December a dumpster fire. Your area looks 0.5-1C warmer than avg on the CFS for December. Cfs2 has been cooling the last week, but I assume it's too cool. If the trend continues, an updated forecast....err, guess may be needed. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which is probably enough to constitute a dumpser fire in the lower terrain of the mid atlantic during December as it relates to snowfall. That is a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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