2024-2025 La Nina

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Don/others,

 Compare this to WxBell’s 10 day avg for DJF (see image below)(apples to apples): WxBell is significantly too cold in the E 2/3 of the US! In the NE for example, WxBell averages ~-1C/-1.8F vs CPC’s ~+0.75C/+1.35F. So, WB is ~3F too cold! Another ex: Atlanta is ~2F too cold on WB. This is further proof that WB CFS maps tend to be significantly too cold in the E US.

 In addition note once again on the WB CFS map that everpresent cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot just 250 miles N in N Lake Michigan/N Michigan:

 

**Edit: Also, WB’s climo base is 1981-2010, which would make their maps even warmer than going against 1991-2020. In other words, if WB were to change the climo to 1991-2020, their maps would be even colder. So, WxBell may actually even be further off vs CPC than what I stated above!

Conspiracy Theory Larry ??

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast.

From 10/1-10:

From 10/11-20:

Adjusting to the probable likely outcome.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Conspiracy Theory Larry ??

 I’m currently leaning against it being intentional as my nature is to give the benefit of the doubt initially. It is hard for me to believe they’d do this on purpose when it is so easy for anyone to compare to other sources of CFS output. So, I’m still thinking unintentionally badly flawed company algorithms. But the longer this goes on without fixing it, the more I start to wonder somewhat since colder E US sells in winter. And shouldn’t they have at least noticed that cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot in N Lake Michigan that almost always show up by now?

 Is it possible they (including JB) still have no idea that their CFS maps differ so much? I say it’s possible because they may never look at other CFS output. But what about those everpresent cold/warm spots? If they really still don’t know now and they later figure it out, would they then be honest and fix the algos or ditch their versions?

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m currently leaning against it being intentional as my nature is to give the benefit of the doubt initially. It is hard for me to believe they’d do this on purpose when it is so easy for anyone to compare to other sources of CFS output. So, I’m still thinking unintentionally badly flawed company algorithms. But the longer this goes on without fixing it, the more I start to wonder somewhat since colder E US sells in winter. And shouldn’t they have at least noticed that cold spot in S Lake Michigan and warm spot in N Lake Michigan that almost always show up by now?

 Is it possible they (including JB) still have no idea that their CFS maps differ so much? I say it’s possible because they may never look at other CFS output. But what about those everpresent cold/warm spots? If they really still don’t know now and they later figure it out, would they then be honest and fix the algos or ditch their versions?

I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left.

I could be wrong, of course. Lol

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left.

I could be wrong, of course. Lol

1. Brooklyn was also warning me and others about comparing single runs vs multi runs. The only WB CFS maps that go out through Feb (all of DJF) are control runs. Also, when JB shows winter CFS, they are always control runs.

2. The only multi run CFS maps WB has are control runs.

3. The WB CFS mean of 10 days of runs I showed earlier was a mean of control runs. That’s all they have for DJF.

4. Check this out: mean of 30 days of control runs for DJF: look how cold it is! 30 days! This is absurd! Their CFS mean is about always too cold in the E US along with having the Lake Michigan nonsense.

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left.

I could be wrong, of course. Lol

Even when looking at the control run, it still doesn't look right. I think it's something that's gone a bit haywire. As far as whether or not it's intentional, I'm not going there. I'll just use other maps.

[MJO812]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1848506703542948155?t=yKnUAfpu7hvNuFwibnBbjA&s=19