2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, the MEI is going to be in strong la nina territory for the SO update. I wonder how close we get to the 21-22/22-23 peak.

Unfortunately the MEI may not update for awhile but I assume it’s deep into Niña mode

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/11/2024 at 11:00 AM, George001 said:

I would prefer 07-08 to 20-21. 07-08 was honestly straight up better than 20-21 for my area, it was snowier and a bit colder. 20-21 the best snows were south and west of SNE. My range for best and worst case scenarios is wider. Best case for my area I would say 2010-2011 redux, worst case 2022-2023 redux. I don’t think either of these scenarios is particularly likely, it would be foolish to forecast such an extreme outcome at this point. But that’s the range of outcomes. I’m thinking average to slightly above average snow for my area at this point, nothing too crazy in either direction. 

Agree.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

Old location, BWI, had 8.5" for the season while current one had 15". No thanks. 

I do remember that clipper in 12/07 that dropped around 4"'imby. I remember  Will commiserating with you and others pointing out BWI had more than BOS. That didn't last very long. 

Also, Bastardi posted the day of the December storm saying "it's a clipper, it's a clipper, now it's a flipper" warning how things would warm. He had that call right as the rest of the winter dropped less than 5".

Crazy how I can remember it like it was yesterday, but weenie wounds never heal.

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Unfortunately the MEI may not update for awhile but I assume it’s deep into Niña mode

Makes sense, -PDO, strengthening GOA cold pool and recent uptick in tropical activity is consistent with a strengthening La Niña background state. It’s strange, with these observations you would expect a much stronger ONI response. Makes me wonder if there is a risk that the ONI plummets way more than expected, like a solidly moderate ONI peak or even close to strong. I’m not expecting that given where the ONI is currently at (sticking to my -0.8 to -1 call), but it is something that crossed my mind as a potential wild card factor for this winter.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave
 

 

On a side note, you were correct about the Atlantic going right back into a +AMO look and that New Foundland marine heatwave is relentless 

 

[qg_omega]

You need to be literally insane to predict below normal temps in this rapidly warming climate

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

You need to be literally insane to predict below normal temps in this rapidly warming climate

can you imagine what a genius one would look like then if they'd forecast this recent -aug that just happened in boston   lol     come to think about it, the stunningly 'hot' +0.3 that location put up for the next month, sep, is probably equally as difficult during this era of cc, too.   so may as well take the two months together.  (-0.7 + +0.3)/2 = -0.2 for the two together

i'm only mentioning because i've noticed recurrence of a se can/ne us cool pool, which seems to be quasi reproducible. i know why, or strongly suspect the reasons but tl;dr

just one quick thought.. if se can/ne us was in a relative temperature hole, then naturally ...we look around for a comparable hill - but there's a problem.  whenever we do, the hills are more like mountains, where's the valleys that are supposed to couple and make for a general neutral total ... don't.  i mean look what happened in phx and other areas of the sw/california while boston limped to a 2-month average of -0.2 ?    we are not balancing the landscape.  there's like a cool air drainage basin here.  look at canadian sep - warmest sep like ever... while boston limps.  not the first time i've seen this synoptic dumpster over se can/ne us

there's a bit of a perhaps sociological perspective that bugs me in this..    eastern n/a's mid latitudes are being enabled by the geometric base line perennial pattern - which features elevated heights west, with a flattening ( or subtle trough) in the east. that is creating the cool pool tendency - tendency not meaning it is always there...  and as such, the region is toned in "red" on the ipcc reports and whatever reports in the compendium. but this back-o-ball-bag heat is having more to overcome in order to manifest.  so is comparatively rarer.  it seems more and more so when i look around, these 'perennial hills' around the world are where the heat bombs are going off, where the canonical valleys are experiencing warming ... but since they lack specific synergistic events the sensible realization is a more tepid  cc response in those regions.  

it's all a perfect layout to hide cc from one of the very densest population of fossil fuel dependencies, one that could really use the smack in the face wake up call.  haha

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

can you imagine what a genius one would look like then if they'd forecast this recent -aug that just happened in boston   lol     come to think about it, the stunningly 'hot' +0.3 that location put up for the next month, sep, is probably equally as difficult during this era of cc, too.   so may as well take the two months together.  (-0.7 + +0.3)/2 = -0.2 for the two together

i'm only mentioning because i've noticed recurrence of a se can/ne us cool pool, which seems to be quasi reproducible. i know why, or strongly suspect the reasons but tl;dr

just one quick thought.. if se can/ne us was in a relative temperature hole, then naturally ...we look around for a comparable hill - but there's a problem.  whenever we do, the hills are more like mountains, where's the valleys that are supposed to couple and make for a general neutral total .... don't.  i mean look what happened in phx and other areas of the sw/california while boston limped to a 2-month average of -0.2 ?     we are not balancing the landscape.

there's a bit of a perhaps sociological perspective that bugs me in this..    eastern n/a's mid latitudes are being enabled by the geometric base line perennial pattern - which features elevated heights west, with a flattening ( or subtle trough) in the east. that is creating the cool pool tendency - tendency not meaning it is always there...  and as such, the region is toned in "red" on the ipcc reports and whatever reports in the compendium. but this back-o-ball-bag heat is having more to overcome in order to manifest.  so is comparatively rarer.  it seems more and more so when i look around, these 'perennial hills' around the world are where the heat bombs are going off, where the canonical valleys are experiencing warming ... but since they lack specific synergistic events the sensible realization is more tepid in the cc response. 

it's all a perfect layout to hide cc from one of the very densest population of fossil fuel dependencies, one that could really use the smack in the face wake up call.  haha

Glad I  don't care about cc. Lol

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Old location, BWI, had 8.5" for the season while current one had 15". No thanks. 

I do remember that clipper in 12/07 that dropped around 4"'imby. I remember  Will commiserating with you and others pointing out BWI had more than BOS. That didn't last very long. 

Also, Bastardi posted the day of the December storm saying "it's a clipper, it's a clipper, now it's a flipper" warning how things would warm. He had that call right as the rest of the winter dropped less than 5".

Crazy how I can remember it like it was yesterday, but weenie wounds never heal.

Credit where credit is due….even for him. I remember another good call of his back at the end of January, 2011,  he said all of the high latitude blocking was about to completely break down in early February and declared that winter was about to end. The weenies wanted to throw rocks at him and were ripping him apart at the time. He turned out to be exactly right

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

can you imagine what a genius one would look like then if they'd forecast this recent -aug that just happened in boston   lol     come to think about it, the stunningly 'hot' +0.3 that location put up for the next month, sep, is probably equally as difficult during this era of cc, too.   so may as well take the two months together.  (-0.7 + +0.3)/2 = -0.2 for the two together

i'm only mentioning because i've noticed recurrence of a se can/ne us cool pool, which seems to be quasi reproducible. i know why, or strongly suspect the reasons but tl;dr

just one quick thought.. if se can/ne us was in a relative temperature hole, then naturally ...we look around for a comparable hill - but there's a problem.  whenever we do, the hills are more like mountains, where's the valleys that are supposed to couple and make for a general neutral total ... don't.  i mean look what happened in phx and other areas of the sw/california while boston limped to a 2-month average of -0.2 ?    we are not balancing the landscape.  there's like a cool air drainage basin here.  look at canadian sep - warmest sep like ever... while boston limps.  not the first time i've seen this synoptic dumpster over se can/ne us

there's a bit of a perhaps sociological perspective that bugs me in this..    eastern n/a's mid latitudes are being enabled by the geometric base line perennial pattern - which features elevated heights west, with a flattening ( or subtle trough) in the east. that is creating the cool pool tendency - tendency not meaning it is always there...  and as such, the region is toned in "red" on the ipcc reports and whatever reports in the compendium. but this back-o-ball-bag heat is having more to overcome in order to manifest.  so is comparatively rarer.  it seems more and more so when i look around, these 'perennial hills' around the world are where the heat bombs are going off, where the canonical valleys are experiencing warming ... but since they lack specific synergistic events the sensible realization is a more tepid  cc response in those regions.  

it's all a perfect layout to hide cc from one of the very densest population of fossil fuel dependencies, one that could really use the smack in the face wake up call.  haha

These new 1991-2020 climate normals as so warm that a small +1.4 summer in Boston was still the 9th warmest average temperature at 73°. While I know farming and energy customers need these regular climate normals updates, they tend to minimize the warming which has occurred. The next time we see a cooler winter in the Northeast, it could be a result of the new much warmer winter climate normals. But would have been considered a warmer winter in our older climate era.

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	74.6	0
2	1983	74.1	0
-	1949	74.1	0
3	2022	74.0	0
4	1994	73.9	0
5	2019	73.7	0
-	2018	73.7	0
6	2016	73.6	0
-	2010	73.6	0
7	1952	73.4	0
8	1984	73.3	0
9	2024	73.0	0
-	1973	73.0	0
10	2020	72.9	0
-	2013	72.9	0

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

You need to be literally insane to predict below normal temps in this rapidly warming climate

Except that normals have warmed so much that modestly BN isn’t all that cold anymore. And then wait til we get to 2001-30 normals!

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Credit where credit is due….even for him. I remember another good call of his back at the end of January, 2011,  he said all of the high latitude blocking was about to completely break down in early February and declared that winter was about to end. The weenies wanted to throw rocks at him and were ripping him apart at the time. He turned out to be exactly right

Probably because he already collected the seasonal subscriptions he expected by the end of January! Lol

[brooklynwx99]

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the North Pacific pseudo +PDO is what directly lead to the -EPO blocking and +TNH that winter

it’s never quite that simple

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Except that normals have warmed so much that modestly BN isn’t all that cold anymore. And then wait til we get to 2001-30 normals!

Which will be the warmest 30 year normals of our lifetimes until.. the next 30 year averages 

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s never quite that simple

i don't think, or am not sure is probably better, that the pdo is causal? 

i may have even read this ...but the pdo is largely a result of aggregated ss stressing from wind patterns over some length of time.  so the warm or cool phases are distributive based on atmospheric-oceanic coupling, really.  in other words, the pdo is best describing where the momentum has been distributed. 

then people see these graphical products with pretty red or blue respectively ...and they go 'aha!'  red must make a ridge, then blue must make a trough.  it could in fact be these latter that formulate the former.  haha

but here's the thing - the sensitivity in defining the pdo cool and warm phases may also be sensitive below the threshold of atmospheric forcing anyway.  not sure how how a +.5 or a -.5 oceanic surface anomaly is a silver bullet to why chicago to washington has a cold or hot winter.   etc  

i could see maybe some sort of feedback at little... but what's the threshold?  is 1 deg c of sst anomaly enough ?   ...  .5 ... ? or is it 2, otherwise it's all bullshit. 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i don't think, or am not sure is probably better, that the pdo is causal? 

i may have even read this ...but the pdo is largely a result of aggregated ss stressing from wind patterns over some length of time.  so the warm or cool phases are distributive based on atmospheric-oceanic coupling, really.  in other words, the pdo is best describing where the momentum has been distributed. 

then people see these graphical products with pretty red or blue respectively ...and they go 'aha!'  red must make a ridge, then blue must make a trough.  it could in fact be these latter that formulate the former.  haha

but here's the thing - the sensitivity in defining the pdo cool and warm phases may also be sensitive below the threshold of atmospheric forcing anyway.  not sure how how a +.5 or a -.5 oceanic surface anomaly is a silver bullet to why chicago to washington has a cold or hot winter.   etc  

i could see maybe some sort of feedback at little... but what's the threshold?  is 1 deg c of sst anomaly enough ?   ...  .5 ... ? or is it 2, otherwise it's all bullshit. 

yeah I think of it as more of a constructive/destructive interference indicator more than anything 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah I think of it as more of a constructive/destructive interference indicator more than anything 

Yes...exactly. It can either amplify/perpetuate or attenuate the pattern in place, but it does drive the hemispheric pattern in a vacuum. This is why there often a pretty exagerrated disconnect between the PDO and the PNA, the latter of which has a much more tangible impact on the nation's sensible weather. 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave
 

 

On a side note, you were correct about the Atlantic going right back into a +AMO look and that New Foundland marine heatwave is relentless 

 

The record warmth in Canada seems like a lingering El Niño influence combined with record Pacific WPAC warm pool going back to 2023.

 

[donsutherland1]

Currently, the ECMWF outlook continues to call for a warmer than normal winter across much of North America.

Ongoing marine heatwaves north of Indonesia (with some Category 3 pockets) and in the North Pacific (pockets of Category 3 and 4 levels) are very likely contributing to the forecast.

Those marine heatwaves, should they persist, could favor MJO Phases 4-6 during the winter and a negative to strongly negative PDO. Those outcomes are generally warm in the CONUS except for parts of the West.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Currently, the ECMWF outlook continues to call for a warmer than normal winter across much of North America.

Ongoing marine heatwaves north of Indonesia (with some Category 3 pockets) and in the North Pacific (pockets of Category 3 and 4 levels) are very likely contributing to the forecast.

Those marine heatwaves, should they persist, could favor MJO Phases 4-6 during the winter and a negative to strongly negative PDO. Those outcomes are generally warm in the CONUS except for parts of the West.

 

Note that the Euro doesn’t even have the cold Canada like some others. Actually, the E half is downright mild (for Canada)!

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Currently, the ECMWF outlook continues to call for a warmer than normal winter across much of North America.

Ongoing marine heatwaves north of Indonesia (with some Category 3 pockets) and in the North Pacific (pockets of Category 3 and 4 levels) are very likely contributing to the forecast.

Those marine heatwaves, should they persist, could favor MJO Phases 4-6 during the winter and a negative to strongly negative PDO. Those outcomes are generally warm in the CONUS except for parts of the West.

 

I called MJO 4 to 6 all winter a few months ago due to the forever maritime heatwave.  Nothing else really matters. NYC 4 to 6 above b DJF average.  Snow I like 12 on the season.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Note that the Euro doesn’t even have the cold Canada like some others. Actually, the E half is downright mild (for Canada)!

It's an outlier for sure.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

These new 1991-2020 climate normals as so warm that a small +1.4 summer in Boston was still the 9th warmest average temperature at 73°. While I know farming and energy customers need these regular climate normals updates, they tend to minimize the warming which has occurred. The next time we see a cooler winter in the Northeast, it could be a result of the new much warmer winter climate normals. But would have been considered a warmer winter in our older climate era.

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	74.6	0
2	1983	74.1	0
-	1949	74.1	0
3	2022	74.0	0
4	1994	73.9	0
5	2019	73.7	0
-	2018	73.7	0
6	2016	73.6	0
-	2010	73.6	0
7	1952	73.4	0
8	1984	73.3	0
9	2024	73.0	0
-	1973	73.0	0
10	2020	72.9	0
-	2013	72.9	0

Did you omit years? Looks like 2024 was 12th warmest at Boston (tied with 2 other years). Summer averages are not as wide ranging as winter. This summer would only be +1.9 using 1961-90 norms.

[snowman19]

Signals growing for warmer to much warmer than normal November in the east…possibly much drier than normal too, which would just really be a continuation of the anamalous dry pattern we’ve seen since late August:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did you omit years? Looks like 2024 was 12th warmest at Boston (tied with 2 other years). Summer averages are not as wide ranging as winter. This summer would only be +1.9 using 1961-90 norms.

No. I used dense rank sorting by temperature.

https://medium.com/@kumarsatwik25/rank-and-dense-rank-in-sql-23ffcf77611e

DENSE RANK ():

The DENSE_RANK () function is a window function in SQL that assigns a unique rank to each distinct row within a result set, based on a specified ordering. Unlike the RANK () function, DENSE_RANK () does not leave gapsin the rank sequence when there are ties in the ordering. It ensures that rows with the same values in the ORDER BY clause receive the same rank, and the next rank is then incremented without any gaps.

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Signals growing for warmer to much warmer than normal November in the east…possibly much drier than normal too, which would just really be a continuation of the anamalous dry pattern we’ve seen since late August:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warm November has been advertised on long range models with a warm December too. We hashed this out when the Euro seasonal came out that things start cooling in January with February continuing the trend, which is why the tri-monthly average after Dec-Feb cools. Iow, nothing new or to see here.

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Warm November has been advertised on long range models with a warm December too. We hashed this out when the Euro seasonal came out that things start cooling in January with February continuing the trend, which is why the tri-monthly average after Dec-Feb cools. Iow, nothing new or to see here.

As of right now, I am very skeptical of a cold/snowy February. That would be very atypical of a canonical La Niña. 20-21 was a recent exception, but that was also caused by strong -AO/-NAO blocking, due in very large part to the solar minimum, IMO. At least for NYC, if December is warm, pray for a greater than 3” of snow total for the month. As @bluewave showed, there has been an extremely strong correlation over the last 30 years between total December snowfall and the snowfall for the rest of the season when you have a La Niña in place

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As of right now, I am very skeptical of a cold/snowy February. That would be very atypical of a canonical La Niña. 20-21 was a recent exception, but that was also caused by strong -AO/-NAO blocking, due in very large part to the solar minimum, IMO. At least for NYC, if December is warm, pray for a greater than 3” of snow total for the month. As @bluewave showed, there has been an extremely strong correlation over the last 30 years between total December snowfall and the snowfall for the rest of the season when you have a La Niña in place

You can be skeptical, it's your perogative. But if people are going to post model runs, it seems only fair to consider the entire run and not just the parts they agree with.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

As of right now, I am very skeptical of a cold/snowy February. That would be very atypical of a canonical La Niña. 20-21 was a recent exception, but that was also caused by strong -AO/-NAO blocking, due in very large part to the solar minimum, IMO. At least for NYC, if December is warm, pray for a greater than 3” of snow total for the month. As @bluewave showed, there has been an extremely strong correlation over the last 30 years between total December snowfall and the snowfall for the rest of the season when you have a La Niña in place

No way! You skeptical? That's crazy 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Signals growing for warmer to much warmer than normal November in the east…possibly much drier than normal too, which would just really be a continuation of the anamalous dry pattern we’ve seen since late August:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Fwiw* JB keeps hinting at a cold Nov/Thanksgiving/Dec for the E US. I’m not putting much weight on that for obvious reasons. Also, on Oct 8th he ditched his +2 for Megapolis for Nov-Mar for a NN (+1). And that’s obviously subject to further cooling in later updates. Keep this in mind: Since at the very least 2014-5 (because they’re all circulating on the internet back to then), JB has yet to have a mild FINAL Megapolis winter forecast. With the number of mild winters (5 of the 10) there have been, that’s not a good record. The ones 3+ AN at NYC since 2014-5 for those who don’t know were 2015-6, 2016-7, 2019-20, 2022-3, and 2023-4.

 

A. The 5 mild NYC winters (vs respective 30 yr mean):

-JB had -1 for Nov-Mar 2023-4 vs actual of +4 (DJF N/A). So, he missed by -5

-He had +0.5 for DJF 2022-3 vs actual of +5. So, he missed by -4.5

-He had -2 for his final DJF 2019-20 (vs earlier fcast of +0.5) vs actual of +3.5. So, his final missed by -5.5. So, his earlier fcast was not as bad (miss by -3).

-He had -2 for his final DJF 2016-7 (vs earlier fcast of 0) vs actual of +4. So, his final missed by -6. So, his earlier fcast wasn’t as bad (miss by -4).

-He had -2 for both his initial and final fcasts for DJF 2015-6 vs actual of +5.5. So, he missed by -7.5.

 

 So, for the 5 mild NYC winters:

-The avg of the absolute value of his final fcast misses was 5.5 and his avg bias was -5.5. The range was -4.5 to -7.5.

-He revised 2 of the 5 significantly colder, which resulted in larger - misses.

—————————

B. The 5 non-mild NYC winters:
 

-2021-2 had -0.5 for final Nov-Mar (vs 0 for initial). The actual was +1 (DJF N/A). So, his final missed by -1.5 and his earlier fcast was slightly better (missed by -1.0).

-2020-1 had +0.5 for his final DJF (vs +3 for his earlier). The actual was +0.5. So, his final was perfect! Also, his earlier fcast wasn’t so good (missed by +2.5) meaning his change was great!

-2018-9 had -2 for his final/initial DJF vs actual of +0.5. So, he missed by -2.5.

-2017-8 had 0 for his final DJF (vs +0.5 for initial). The actual was +0.5. So, his final missed by only -0.5. His earlier fcast was perfect.

-2014-5 had -2.5 for his final DJF (vs -3 for initial). The actual was -4. So, his final missed by +1.5. This is the only one of the 10 that was actually cold, for which he missed too warm, and for which he revised warmer. This also was his coldest fcast. His earlier fcast was slightly better (miss by +1).

 

So, for the 5 non-mild NYC winters:

-The avg of the absolute value of his final fcast misses was 1. The avg bias was -0.5. The range: -2.5 to +1.5.

-He revised 4 of the 5 (3 cooler and 1 warmer). 
———————————

 

C. Summary of all of last 10 winters at NYC:

-He did well when winter wasn’t mild as his bias for those was only -0.5 and avg absolute value of misses was only 1. His coldest fcast was for the coldest winter.

-He did poorly when winter was mild with a bias/avg miss of -5.5 (avg absolute value of misses was 5.5). He didn’t predict a single mild winter. He was able to predict well the one cold winter. He’d be a much better forecaster if he’d improve on forecasting mild winters but that’s hard to do when he doesn’t forecast them. That’s why I route for him to predict mild and stick with it.

-None of his 10 final forecasts were mild (warmest +0.5/NN) (5 were NN and 5 were BN) as they were from warmest to coldest:

+0.5, +0.5, 0, -0.5, -1, -2, -2, -2, -2, -2.5

 That means that IF his final fcast of +1 for 24-5 doesn’t change, it would still be the warmest since at least 2014-5 despite the cooler revision from +2 to +1.

-6 of the 10 winters were +1 or warmer. The avg of the winters was +2 vs his avg of final fcasts of -1. So, he was too cold by 3 on avg for the 10 winters! So, a bias correction of +3 would probably be appropriate.

-He predicted on avg -1.3 for the 5 warmest winters and -0.9 for the 5 coldest winters

-He had revisions for 6 of the 10. Of these 6, 5 resulted in a worse forecast and only one a better forecast. Of these 6, 5 were revised cooler just like the one he just did for 2024-5. Only 2014-5 was revised slightly warmer. 
@bluewave

@donsutherland1