2024-2025 La Nina

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Any reason why the NOAA hasn't updated the ONI and RONI numbers for July/August/September 2024 yet? The numbers are usually updated within the first 4 days of the month, and it's already October 7.

Most products will have late updates due to the NCEI issue from Helene.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Really a shame. Over the last several years we have lost some great people here….HM, Isotherm, Raindance…..

HM does post elsewhere sometimes, but I think that place likes to keep things small.  If he ever posts some sort of forecast, I'll share what I can.  

I think sometimes these guys don't like people questioning them or disagreeing, at least it seems that way.  I miss Isotherm's posts.  He didn't live too far away from me either, so it was always nice when a storm was approaching to get his insight.  

[snowman19]

Classic CP Niña development; impressive, sustained EWBs concentrated right in region 3.4, substantial cooling on the way
 

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx
 

Thanks. Despite this, the SSN going way up to over 200 this month, and increased stability due to high solar supposedly without a lag, the Atlantic hurricane ACE will be at record high levels for the 2nd week of Oct.

[snowman19]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Despite this, the SSN going way up to over 200 this month, and increased stability due to high solar supposedly without a lag, the Atlantic hurricane ACE will be at record high levels for the 2nd week of Oct.

Good point. Maybe there is a lag? If there is a total shutdown again after Milton, your lag theory may be right

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good point. Maybe there is a lag? If there is a total shutdown again after Milton, your lag theory may be right

Actually, I don’t have a lag theory. I read that the stability increase is supposedly instantaneous.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Most products will have late updates due to the NCEI issue from Helene.

And now with Milton about to strike, I guess the JAS numbers will probably come out with the ASO numbers on 11/4.

[George001]

On 9/28/2024 at 1:43 PM, George001 said:

In my opinion 90 is too low, I’m thinking around 120-130. I could be wrong though, I expected 200+ ACE before the season started and that clearly isn’t going to happen. You had the right idea, good call with the skepticism of a hyperactive season. The gfs is fairly aggressive but like you and Raindance said, fairly big hole to climb out of.

Damn looks like 120-130 is going to be too conservative. Hurricane Milton deepening significantly more than expected made a big difference, the ACE is already up to 120 now.

[Terpeast]

My outlook for the mid atlantic. Thoughts welcome.

 

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My outlook for the mid atlantic. Thoughts welcome.

 

At 500mb, that blend looks pretty darn close to what seasonal modeling is showing. Barring something extraordinary, I think that's a fair guess with hopes it busts cooler. That said, I'm sorry not to see 20/21 as part of your thinking solely for maintaining a weenie dream.

Thanks for the Outlook and good luck with the job search.

[Terpeast]

55 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 500mb, that blend looks pretty darn close to what seasonal modeling is showing. Barring something extraordinary, I think that's a fair guess with hopes it busts cooler. That said, I'm sorry not to see 20/21 as part of your thinking solely for maintaining a weenie dream.

Thanks for the Outlook and good luck with the job search.

Thanks, appreciate it. Wish me luck, it's rough out there. 

As for 2020-21, it might be a fit for sure, but I think I left it out because of the QBO. Anyhow, the QBO-sensible wx relation is pretty weak in my opinion, so I think it makes sense to use it as an analog as well. I don't think it would change much if I tossed that in.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

My outlook for the mid atlantic. Thoughts welcome.

 

Good luck and I agree that this winter will end up drier on the east coast than some think. I know some people are expecting well above normal precip but I’m not of that opinion right now

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good luck and I agree that this winter will end up drier on the east coast than some think. I know some people are expecting well above normal precip but I’m not of that opinion right now

Those thinking AN precip must be on X because I  see nothing to suggest that in this thread and Niñas are notoriously dry in the I95 corridor in the MA & SE. I  don't claim to know climo NYC on north and east, but that area seems to get additional juice from Miller B's we miss down here, but I  don't know which area (s) you meant.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Those thinking AN precip must be on X because I  see nothing to suggest that in this thread and Niñas are notoriously dry in the I95 corridor in the MA & SE. I  don't claim to know climo NYC on north and east, but that area seems to get additional juice from Miller B's we miss down here, but I  don't know which area (s) you meant.

A bunch of the preliminary outlooks I’ve seen on X have above to well above normal precip from the mid-Atlantic through New England. I guess stranger things have happened given AGW, but this time around, I doubt it

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

At 500mb, that blend looks pretty darn close to what seasonal modeling is showing. Barring something extraordinary, I think that's a fair guess with hopes it busts cooler. That said, I'm sorry not to see 20/21 as part of your thinking solely for maintaining a weenie dream.

Thanks for the Outlook and good luck with the job search.

I like 2020-21 as an analog due to the MEI/RONI match. Same with 2007-08. I also like 2016-17 as an analog due to the ONI/RONI match. Finally, I'd throw in 1998-99 due to the potential of a drought in the mid-Atlantic.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I like 2020-21 as an analog due to the MEI/RONI match. Same with 2007-08. I also like 2016-17 as an analog due to the ONI/RONI match. Finally, I'd throw in 1998-99 due to the potential of a drought in the mid-Atlantic.

Not an enviable list imby except for 20/21. 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

My outlook for the mid atlantic. Thoughts welcome.

 

Thanks and good luck on your search. For MBY I’d say 17-18 was the best of the bunch, close with 10-11 which was an awesome NYC winter but generally serviceable other than 22-23 which was obviously a disaster. That blend would be maybe 25-30” for the winter here, slightly below average but would gladly take at this point. Hope we get the poleward Aleutian ridging which can force the downstream cold/PV further south. Whatever can disrupt the Pacific jet is more than welcome. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Thanks and good luck on your search. For MBY I’d say 17-18 was the best of the bunch, close with 10-11 which was an awesome NYC winter but generally serviceable other than 22-23 which was obviously a disaster. That blend would be maybe 25-30” for the winter here, slightly below average but would gladly take at this point. Hope we get the poleward Aleutian ridging which can force the downstream cold/PV further south. Whatever can disrupt the Pacific jet is more than welcome. 

If there is pronounced poleward Aleutian ridging/-WPO, then that would obviously change the game. If it does happen, I would think it would be early on (December). Want to see what happens over the next 3 weeks (brings us to early November), but I think we face a hostile to very hostile NAO and AO, getting pretty confident in that. I don’t see the PNA playing ball either, obviously not to the extent of 22-23 but hostile none the less. I doubt much cooperation from the EPO either; why? GOA cold pool, very strong -PDO, Maritime Continent 4-6 forcing very likely favored and SST cooling starting to extend west from there (GOA) to the eastern part of Aleutian chain 

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

My outlook for the mid atlantic. Thoughts welcome.

 

Nice I agree as well overall though I do expect the mean trough to probably be a little further west and probably the Aleutian Ridge but as you state timing is and always will be everything. We have come rather close with several storms over the past couple years but timing was just off or the cold retreated just too quickly. I will say it will be interesting to watch the NAO state as we get further into Fall and early Winter. For some reason we have flipped that switch and we could just as easily flip it back so that may be a bit of a wild card. I do believe we continue to see the slow demise of the -PDO state. It ain't flipping this year but a gradual push to neutral is something that has been on my mind for a bit. While the atmospheric pattern still tries to revert back to the ridge around Japan it seems to only have flairs right now of that state which could serve us opportunity, as expected with timing of course.

 

Also good luck with the job search it is really difficult right now to get into the field, very competitive. With one maybe two spots open at NWS offices and nearly 20-30 applicants it is tough to stand out. I presume you are trying the NWS route. Luckily I have the weather observer job currently so I get minimal experience under my belt and look like a little bit of an oddball when applying to locations, but seriously though best of luck to you.

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If there is pronounced poleward Aleutian ridging/-WPO, then that would obviously change the game. If it does happen, I would think it would be early on (December). Want to see what happens over the next 3 weeks (brings us to early November), but I think we face a hostile to very hostile NAO and AO, getting pretty confident in that. I don’t see the PNA playing ball either, obviously not to the extent of 22-23 but hostile none the less. I doubt much cooperation from the EPO either; why? GOA cold pool, very strong -PDO, Maritime Continent 4-6 forcing very likely favored and SST cooling starting to extend west from there (GOA) to the eastern part of Aleutian chain 

I think we see a lot of back and forth with the WPO this year. I believe this is what raindance was trying to articulate before he left. While yes the -PDO state will still have a strong influence I could see us overall near neutral in the WPO department with some periods of pronounced + and - WPO patterns mixed around. I don't believe as of now we see a steady state of +WPO this winter. 

As always this could change but if the constant back and forth we are seeing now is an indication ill take it.

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I think we see a lot of back and forth with the WPO this year. I believe this is what raindance was trying to articulate before he left. While yes the -PDO state will still have a strong influence I could see us overall near neutral in the WPO department with some periods of pronounced + and - WPO patterns mixed around. I don't believe as of now we see a steady state of +WPO this winter. 

As always this could change but if the constant back and forth we are seeing now is an indication ill take it.

The WPO may prove to be variable I agree. As far as -EPO blocking, not so much. That would be a very hard sell for me IMO. Not with a GOA and PDO that look like that 

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The WPO may prove to be variable I agree. As far as -EPO blocking, not so much. That would be a very hard sell for me IMO. Not with a GOA and PDO that look like that 

It is not far fetched to believe that if indeed we do see the -WPO periods that a -EPO happens in tandem, as for staying power I do not believe that will be the case but weirder things have happened. I think it is still a good idea to know that oddities do happen and that certainty this far out is anyone's guess.

If the idea is true that atmospheric mode changes before oceanic temps do then one shouldn't get caught up in the here and now of current oceanic temps, just know that the pattern could easily revert back type of deal. 

Take a look at mid month for an example even with a strong -PDO and an Aleutian Low (though this is much further west in a more ideal spot) the resulting pattern in the east is one that folks would love if this happened closer to winter time. Just stuff to keep in mind as we have seen extremely harsh conditions over the east over the last few years, it is nice to see some breaks in the persistence department.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is not far fetched to believe that if indeed we do see the -WPO periods that a -EPO happens in tandem, as for staying power I do not believe that will be the case but weirder things have happened. I think it is still a good idea to know that oddities do happen and that certainty this far out is anyone's guess.

If the idea is true that atmospheric mode changes before oceanic temps do then one shouldn't get caught up in the here and now of current oceanic temps, just know that the pattern could easily revert back type of deal. 

Take a look at mid month for an example even with a strong -PDO and an Aleutian Low (though this is much further west in a more ideal spot) the resulting pattern in the east is one that folks would love if this happened closer to winter time. Just stuff to keep in mind as we have seen extremely harsh conditions over the east over the last few years, it is nice to see some breaks in the persistence department.

fwiw -

  this source provided by the climate diagnostic center is good for a quick n dirty ( coarse ) correlation between all indices, broken out by month

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/

...it's always been available, just sayn'

but just classical experience knows that the wpo is correlated ( positively ) with the epo.  the matrix above suggests it is between +.1 and +.2 cc, which in reality ...the correlation is likely greater than that range.

the disclaimer also notes that these are all linear - therein is a problem in blanket usage.  for the sake discussion,  because the progression of all events in the atmosphere being what they are, a wpo index will necessarily ( geophysically ) require some amount of lag to manifest downstream in the epo domain.  linearity does not necessarily represent accelerations; the correlations are thus happenstance and don't consider time dependence.   so, when applying a lag, the correlation likely stronger is all i'm sayn

during times of rapid hemispherical modality, i've found that diving wpo tends to manifest in the epo about 3 days later ( approx) ... ranging to 5 to 7 days during low amplitude ( or even no registry at this far end ).  variances that are quite academic anyway, considering no indexes are 1::1...etc.  uuusually though, a robust wpo index mode/modality will eventually represent, due to some amount of forcing, downstream in the epo domain - resident or longevity of mode, notwithstanding.    those privy to these large scale teleconnector relationships typically pay attention east of the ural/alps across asia, where super synoptic mode changes --> wave dispersal downstream of the continent effects the wpo --> epo ... and so on, the source 'zygote' in pattern modulation across n/a perhaps week to 10 days later. 

[George001]

seasonal ACE is now up to 130 thanks to hurricane Milton going nuclear and deepening significantly more than expected by the models. Milton has already produced nearly 20 ACE, and we may be looking at an ACE of 135-140 once Milton falls apart. On average we see around 20 ACE after today, which means we are looking at potentially a 150+ ACE season despite just a couple weeks ago the hurricane season looking like a complete bust. Things can change fast in weather, something worth keeping in mind during the winter as well if things start slowly. 

[bluewave]

ACE hasn’t traditionally had much relationship with the winter pattern outside the really high La Niña ACE years over 180  like 95-96, 05-06, 17-18, and 20-21.

 

Accumulated Cyclone Energy - Atlantic ^[14] 

Season	ACE	TS	HU	MH	Classification
1933	258.57	20	11	6	Extremely active
2005	245.3	28	15	7	Extremely active
1893	231.1475	12	10	5	Extremely active
1926	229.5575	11	8	6	Extremely active
1995	227.1025	19	11	5	Extremely active
2004	226.88	15	9	6	Extremely active
2017	224.8775	17	10	6	Extremely active
1950	211.2825	16	11	6	Extremely active
1961	188.9	12	8	5	Extremely active
1998	181.7675	14	10	3	Extremely active
1887	181.26	19	11	2	Extremely active
1878	180.85	12	10	2	Extremely active
2020	180.3725	30	14	7	Extremely active

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

ACE hasn’t traditionally had much relationship with the winter pattern outside the really high La Niña ACE years over 180  like 95-96, 05-06, 17-18, and 20-21.

 

Accumulated Cyclone Energy - Atlantic ^[14] 

Season	ACE	TS	HU	MH	Classification
1933	258.57	20	11	6	Extremely active
2005	245.3	28	15	7	Extremely active
1893	231.1475	12	10	5	Extremely active
1926	229.5575	11	8	6	Extremely active
1995	227.1025	19	11	5	Extremely active
2004	226.88	15	9	6	Extremely active
2017	224.8775	17	10	6	Extremely active
1950	211.2825	16	11	6	Extremely active
1961	188.9	12	8	5	Extremely active
1998	181.7675	14	10	3	Extremely active
1887	181.26	19	11	2	Extremely active
1878	180.85	12	10	2	Extremely active
2020	180.3725	30	14	7	Extremely active

Glad you mentioned that in case anyone interpreted George's ACE update as reason for optimism.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad you mentioned that in case anyone interpreted George's ACE update as reason for optimism.

Our ACE card up our sleeve turned out to be a Joker pointing to map with another mega cutter to the Lakes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Our ACE card up our sleeve turned out to be a Joker pointing to map with another mega cutter to the Lakes. 

I still think I will be okay here on the NH border.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think I will be okay here on the NH border.

In a Niña, I sure hope so or we're all probably screwed!