40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water I don't think it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Fwiw, the Euro DJF temp departure for the entire northeast and southern Lakes is +1 to +1.5°C, with 0 to + 1°C for the upper midwest. It's cooler than the Sept run, although unrealistically too broadbrushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 New Euro is a nod to the CFS/CANSIPS camp.....any other portrayal is due to a bias and/or delusion. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I think something like 2021-2022 maybe okay...but we aren't getting the amplification out west that we did in 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think something like 2021-2022 maybe okay...but we aren't getting the amplification out west that we did in 2022. CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 That is good consensus on a pretty stout -WPO pattern in the seasonal mean. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: How many times is the EURO going to show a La Niña then go to cold-neutral/La Nada then back again before this winter starts? Back and forth, back and forth like a schizophrenic. How can you trust it? That's the thing, I don't! I mean, I do think it probably has the right idea overall (especially over a trimonthly average), but its the details that will make or break a winter and we just can't tell those things yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 I think the CANSIPS is probably too far south with the cold, but the CFS seems more realistic...its similar to the EURO...maybe a touch colder. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the CANSIPS is probably too far south with the cold, but the CFS seems more realistic...its similar to the EURO...maybe a touch colder. The 3 long range models agree December will be warm. No argument there from me. Changes start in January, which would likely be on or after the 15th since the change to a more favorable pattern strikes me as gradual over the season. So barring a fluke or pure magic, I would roll the dice and say 1/15-2/25 is the my window for snow imby, peak climo basically. Different story in ENE & NE of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: The 3 long range models agree December will be warm. No argument there from me. Changes start in January, which would likely be on or after the 15th since the change to a more favorable pattern strikes me as gradual over the season. So barring a fluke or pure magic, I would roll the dice and say 1/15-2/25 is the my window for snow imby, peak climo basically. Different story in ENE & NE of course. Reminds me of 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.....should see amplified phases 4-6 this month to lend confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro 500 mb forecast is nearly identical to the ones it issued for 22-23 and 21-22. 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster Old school meteorology approach. I like it, what is happening RIGHT NOW in the fall matters. What is the storm track? Is it wet or dry? Last winter I saw articles about flooding out west, areas like Seattle were getting hammered. That really raised my alarms that last winter was going to be a rough one. The parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest continued all winter long which was extremely unfavorable for the east coast. The previous winter had the same thing in the fall and I ignored it, and learned the hard way I shouldn’t have. Often the pattern in the fall is a sign of things to some. Storms barreling into the Pacific Northwest is just bad news. This year we aren’t really seeing that. But it has been fairly dry. You mentioned earlier that this may be a dry winter like 2001-2002, a year mentioned as a decent analog several times in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 ACE forecasts for the year? The strength of the low in the gulf increased rapidly across all guidance over the past couple of days. I think 125-150. Probably closer to 125, it would take a really big late season storm to get up to 150. Got there in an unusual way, but average to slightly above average ACE overall. I think the increase in strength for that gulf low killed the possibility of a below average ACE season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, George001 said: Old school meteorology approach. I like it, what is happening RIGHT NOW in the fall matters. What is the storm track? Is it wet or dry? Last winter I saw articles about flooding out west, areas like Seattle were getting hammered. That really raised my alarms that last winter was going to be a rough one. The parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest continued all winter long which was extremely unfavorable for the east coast. The previous winter had the same thing in the fall and I ignored it, and learned the hard way I shouldn’t have. Often the pattern in the fall is a sign of things to some. Storms barreling into the Pacific Northwest is just bad news. This year we aren’t really seeing that. But it has been fairly dry. You mentioned earlier that this may be a dry winter like 2001-2002, a year mentioned as a decent analog several times in this thread. Tougher to get a dry season at the height of +AMO nearly a quarter century further into CC. Anyway, I love the idea of incorporating what is happening, but IMO his bias is showing with the apparent vitriol in dismissing all seasonal guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tougher to get a dry season at the height of +AMO nearly a quarter century further into CC. Anyway, I love the idea of incorporating what is happening, but IMO his bias is showing with the apparent vitriol in dismissing all seasonal guidance. Not vitriol at all and I’m not totally dismissing it. The seasonal guidance last winter was beyond awful and I bought into it. The only one who didn’t (Bluewave) ended up being right. I view it with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise now. Remember when the EURO weeklies and monthlies kept showing massive blocking for February and March? It sure fooled me with the Nino in place. They kept insisting on MJO 8-1-2, -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO/-WPO, off to the races, severe cold and KU’s barreling up the coast, run after run after run. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me Edit: @40/70 Benchmark My post was about last year, not 21-22 or 22-23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not vitriol at all and I’m not totally dismissing it. The seasonal guidance last winter was beyond awful and I bought into it. The only one who didn’t (Bluewave) ended up being right. I view it with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise now. Remember when the EURO weeklies and monthlies kept showing massive blocking for February and March? It sure fooled me with the Nino in place. They kept insisting on MJO 8-1-2, -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO/-WPO, off to the races, severe cold and KU’s barreling up the coast, run after run after run raindance didn't, either. I don't think last year is a good example because the seasonals fell prey to overreliance on ENSO....they modeled an El Niño like pattern that never materialized. In this case, they are modeling a La Niña like pattern that while not epic, would appear to offer wintry interludes that extend a bit further to the south than those of the past few years. I wouldn't call those EURO images a massive bust for 2021-2022 and the only reason 2022-2023 didn't work out was due to the extent of the western trough....no seasonal will ever get that right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Is this awful?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Edit: @40/70 Benchmark My post was about last year, not 21-22 or 22-23 Okay, but consider my point about seasonal guidance erroneously defaulting to stock ENSO....shouldn't be an issue this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 This also aligns with my work on the polar domain from a couple of months ago. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html Eastern Mass Weather Preliminary Polar Analogs for Winter 2024-2025 1970 1975 1999 2007 2016 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 17 hours ago, mitchnick said: In light of the progged Easterly anomalies upon us now and current SSTA's, it's hard to buy the November spike in SSTA anomalies on this run attached. How that would change other forecasting parameters is anyone's guess. Yes. The models are still showing persistent enhanced trade winds/EWBs in ENSO 3.4. If they are correct and it looks like they are based on the totality of the other synoptic features, then there will be cooling in that region and the SSTAs will drop to La Niña territory this month and into next month….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 7 hours ago, George001 said: like it, what is happening RIGHT NOW in the fall matters. What is the storm track? Is it wet or dry? One wild card may be how warm Canada is this fall. It’s even warmer than last year which was an El Niño. So we never had this precede a La Niña winter before. I am not sure if the Euro seasonal is just rolling this forward from the initialization. Since it has Canada warmer this winter than the other La Niña winters of the 2020s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: One wild card may be how warm Canada is this fall. It’s even warmer than last year which was an El Niño. So we never had this precede a La Niña winter before. I am not sure if the Euro seasonal is just rolling this forward from the initialization. Since it has Canada warmer this winter than the other La Niña winters of the 2020s. No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho. I was really thinking a snowy December for here, and still kind of am. Many ninas had December as the best winter month, Feb as the worst, but the models are going for the exact opposite, more in line with recent trends of Dec being the worst and Feb the best. I still don't know what to fully think,.but am still liking the look of this winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 22 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho. Fall temperatures over North America are one of the parameters we look at in judging the amount of cold that could be available in North America during the winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: Fall temperatures over North America are one of the parameters we look at in judging the amount of cold that could be available in North America during the winter. Since fall officially starts the end of September, I think it's too early, which was my point for January through March period. I think your focus is on temps and mine is on snow. I don't care about temps. They don't concern me one iota. All I want is a season that gives me a few periods of favorable patterns. That's all it has ever been in the Mid Atlantic. The right pattern will generate the right temps just as January did last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Since fall officially starts the end of September, I think it's too early, which was my point for January through March period. I think your focus is on temps and mine is on snow. I don't care about temps. They don't concern me one iota. All I want is a season that gives me a few periods of favorable patterns. That's all it has ever been in the Mid Atlantic. The right pattern will generate the right temps just as January did last winter. The record September warmth has continued into October for North America. My focus is on temps and snowfall. When the fall temps in Canada and the U.S. are skewed very warm or cold it has historically continued over into winter in some manner. Sometimes more localized regional hints for winter and other times nationally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The record September warmth has continued into October for North America. My focus is on temps and snowfall. When the fall temps in Canada and the U.S. are skewed very warm or cold it has historically continued over into winter in some manner. Sometimes more localized regional hints for winter and other times nationally. Last year's toaster still yielded almost 20" imby. The reason why I'm optimistic for this winter is that there's nothing on seasonal modeling that indicates there will be a shutout. There will be decent periods. Then it comes down to luck. Those same models are showing the warmth in Canada thru November, while still predicting a season with chances. Unless they all start busting badly on those months, I will remain positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 9 hours ago, George001 said: ACE forecasts for the year? The strength of the low in the gulf increased rapidly across all guidance over the past couple of days. I think 125-150. Probably closer to 125, it would take a really big late season storm to get up to 150. Got there in an unusual way, but average to slightly above average ACE overall. I think the increase in strength for that gulf low killed the possibility of a below average ACE season. I've said 2016 (15/7/4 with 140 ACE) was probably right around where we were going to end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The record September warmth has continued into October for North America. My focus is on temps and snowfall. When the fall temps in Canada and the U.S. are skewed very warm or cold it has historically continued over into winter in some manner. Sometimes more localized regional hints for winter and other times nationally. FWIW ensembles show a warmer west canada with a near normal to cooler east in the 5-15 day time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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