2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

NE coast has actually been one of the few areas that have seen an increase in average annual snowfall over the last 50 years...the warm ocean hasn't been all bad news.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NE coast has actually been one of the few areas that have seen an increase in average annual snowfall over the last 50 years...the warm ocean hasn't been all bad news.

I think we are still in a sweet spot if we get a favorable pattern.. maybe not the NAO, but on the Pacific side. Global precipitable water has been way up. There was a spot in Louisiana that broke their record by almost 200% in the Spring. And the rains with Helene were more anomalous than usual too. Last year globally was a good +20% over all satellite data since 1948. I think people are rushing the "post 15-16 Super El Nino" climate change. Maybe what we be typical 40-50 years from now, they are calling the last 9 years. The fact is, we have to figure out why strong El Nino's are reversing so much thereafter. 1:8 is the current ratio after 15-16 (-PNA), and it was always historically ~1:3 (meaning 3 la nina's per 1 strong nino). I want to know why a Strong El Nino could lead to 9 years of strong -PNA. Maybe it's just a coincidence or the strong ENSO event is just a blip in an otherwise strong background state? Once the Pacific becomes more favorable, the higher precip tendency should give us some above average snowfall years, for sure.. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Earlier in September we had some pretty good negative subsurface.. most recent shows complete neutral.. largest anomaly deviation is actually positive below Nino 1+2

It’s warm below region 1+2 because this is a CP Niña event. Barring something really weird happening in the next 3 weeks before November arrives, I think the main drivers for this winter are probably already set…..CP La Niña (weak), very strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD (weak), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, solar max/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, MJO very likely favoring phases 4-6, AGW, near average Atlantic ACE?. The only question I have at this point is what effects if any and likely minor (does it potentiate the Niña/+QBO/high solar effect on the AO?), will the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April have on the stratosphere. We won’t know the answer to that question until after winter is over 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another interesting thing to add...since the 15-16 super nino, while the winters have been mild, (and it was made even more annoying by the record snowy stretch that it just followed), we have set a slew of early and late season snow records/quirks:

~cold/snowy Novembers

~largest Nov snowstorm on record (Nov 11, 2019)

~most consecutive days in a row with May snow (5) May 8-12, 2020

~3 consecutive years (2020, 2021, 2022) saw a snowstorm between April 17-21 drop 2-6" on the area

~snowiest Halloween on record (2023)

 

That's just Detroit. You see the snowgasm south Buffalo has been enjoying. And there have been a few very impressive record arctic shots as well, showing the cold is there. The thing is, warming climate or not, the snow season is very long from 1st to last flake. And we all can use the added moisture to our benefit IF/WHEN the pattern works out. And this goes for you too. It's a different climate but don't think for one second that an absolutely massive moisture laden bomb can't bury NYC in feet of snow. Just a decade ago everyone was having snowy winter after snowy winter. That's not that long ago. There are many factors at play, including enso and changes in climate, but  the overall hostile nature of the pattern, especially for the east coast, doesn't get nearly enough credit for whats happened in recent winters imo. If below zero temps and -30° to -40° wind chills can pop in for a visit during one of the warmest winters on record (see Jan 2024), the east coast can get a good snow season. Pattern just needs to shake up.

We have two issues at work along the 1-95 corridor in the  NYC Metro forecast zones. First, it was like someone flipped switch to warmer with the +13.3 December 2015. But we were still working with more of a favorable +PDO-like pattern into 17-18. The Benchmark storm track was still going strong since the 09-10 or even 02-03 winter with regular record snowfalls. But especially from 15-16 to 17-18 record warmth very close to our big snowfalls. We had blizzards when it was in the record 60s days before or after the snows. I got used to rapid snowmelts following the storms. So the snow cover days were declining relative to past colder and snowier seasons. We went from record warmth with 70s near Christmas in 2015 to one of our  greatest snowstorms in January near 30” in NYC. Then a brief Arctic shot in February for the first below 0° since 1994. But a quick recovery back to the 60s following this. 16-17 was also one of our warmest winters but we managed some great snowstorms even if the 60s were close by. Then the 17-18 winter started with a great Arctic shot after Christmas and record 950 mb Benchmark blizzard in early January. But a quick reversal in mid-January and then record 80° warmth in February before record 30” inch snows in March. Much of this volatility was a combination of record MJO 4-7 activity interacting with the lingering +PDO. A great November snowstorm in 2018 before the Pacific began to shift.

This takes us to the second factor which was how hostile the Pacific has become with a -PDO signature in this warming climate. 18-19 witnessed a rare El Niño failure due to the record WPAC warm pool which has been driving the warm MJO phases. So we went most of the winter with only a snow squall to show for the pattern while the Chicago area was seeing record cold in the -20s. Then we got into the turn of the new decade in 19-20 with a raging polar vortex and Pacific Jet with more warmth and well below normal snows. 20-21 was a nice reprieve but it was still warmer than average even with a great +PNA -AO. This would have been a much colder pattern in the past like 10-11 was with similar levels of blocking. But the block became too south based favoring places like BGM for the record 40” smowstorm before Christmas. But then the raging Pacific Jet returned on Christmas with the 40” snow pack melting rapidly and causing flash flooding and landslides at the ski resorts. 21-21 started with record warmth in December before seeing our last good winter month in January.

The most recent stretch since February 2022 to this past winter was our warmest and least snowiest so close together with numerous locations setting records for stretches with under 4” and 2” snowstorms. We made it to a record 9 warmer winters in a row with some degree of Southeast Ridging.

Now we are faced with another extreme global temperature jump even exceeding the 15-16 one. So I am waiting to see what this new even warmer baseline jump looks like in the coming years. So you see we were able to manage the warmth for great snowstorms before the Pacific shifted. But this hostile storm track plus the warmth has been a very challenging winter mix. When we did shift the MJO to 8 in January 2022 places like ACY were able to manage a record 30” month. But that was a fleeting pattern before the MJO went right back to 4-7. So even a short term favorable Pacific period can still produce to some extent. The question now becomes over the next few winters can we still manage a few of these favorable periods even with this new higher temperature baseline. I will remain open and take a wait and see approach. All these new marine heatwaves are really distorting how our past climate used to operate.

[snowman19]

FWIW the new Meteo-France showing a canonical CP Niña this winter:

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW the new Meteo-France showing a canonical CP Niña this winter:
 

I believe the Euro seasonal usually comes out on the 5th of the month, so I'm sure there will be the typical "me first" rush to post it by one of the usual suspects. Hint: If it's not JB to post it first, it's not cold/snowy! 

[mitchnick]

New Euro monthly out on the free site. Dare I say that the probabilities maps are noticeably cooler than last runs and look similar to cooler areas shown on the Cfs2 and Cansips.

[donsutherland1]

ECMWF Winter Forecast:

October run:

September run:

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

ECMWF Winter Forecast:

October run:

September run:

Lol you need to compare monthlies. September forecast doesn't include February, but the progression is cooler as the winter progresses just like Cfs2 and Cansips. September forecast for December and January on top and October forecast for December to February below.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol you need to compare monthlies. September forecast doesn't include February, but the progression is cooler as the winter progresses just like Cfs2 and Cansips. September forecast for December and January on top and October forecast for December to February below.

Link to today's Cfs2 monthly temps. Similar progression to Euro.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Link to Cansips starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024100500&fh=2

[BlizzardWx]

Euro seasonal is, at least on average, horrible down here with above normal temps all winter. At least precip is close to average. With the large AK ridge, I assume we'd probably get a cold snap or two when it occasionally amplifies enough. 

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NE coast has actually been one of the few areas that have seen an increase in average annual snowfall over the last 50 years...the warm ocean hasn't been all bad news.

 

 

Same here...2010s were the snowiest decade on record. The 2000s just narrowly miss being the 2nd. The increase in snowfall since the mid 20th century gas been undeniable.

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think we are still in a sweet spot if we get a favorable pattern.. maybe not the NAO, but on the Pacific side. Global precipitable water has been way up. There was a spot in Louisiana that broke their record by almost 200% in the Spring. And the rains with Helene were more anomalous than usual too. Last year globally was a good +20% over all satellite data since 1948. I think people are rushing the "post 15-16 Super El Nino" climate change. Maybe what we be typical 40-50 years from now, they are calling the last 9 years. The fact is, we have to figure out why strong El Nino's are reversing so much thereafter. 1:8 is the current ratio after 15-16 (-PNA), and it was always historically ~1:3 (meaning 3 la nina's per 1 strong nino). I want to know why a Strong El Nino could lead to 9 years of strong -PNA. Maybe it's just a coincidence or the strong ENSO event is just a blip in an otherwise strong background state? Once the Pacific becomes more favorable, the higher precip tendency should give us some above average snowfall years, for sure.. 

This was exactly my point. The pattern doesn't get enough credit. It's not like cc just popped up out of nowhere 9 years ago...I remember during our incredible run of winters many were quick to point out it doesn't mean cc isn't happening, there's a difference between weather and climate. Well that works both ways. I don't know what the climate will be when I'm long gone, could be a rainforest or an ice age who knows...but i have no worries about MI winters not being winters in my lifetime.

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have two issues at work along the 1-95 corridor in the  NYC Metro forecast zones. First, it was like someone flipped switch to warmer with the +13.3 December 2015. But we were still working with more of a favorable +PDO-like pattern into 17-18. The Benchmark storm track was still going strong since the 09-10 or even 02-03 winter with regular record snowfalls. But especially from 15-16 to 17-18 record warmth very close to our big snowfalls. We had blizzards when it was in the record 60s days before or after the snows. I got used to rapid snowmelts following the storms. So the snow cover days were declining relative to past colder and snowier seasons. We went from record warmth with 70s near Christmas in 2015 to one of our  greatest snowstorms in January near 30” in NYC. Then a brief Arctic shot in February for the first below 0° since 1994. But a quick recovery back to the 60s following this. 16-17 was also one of our warmest winters but we managed some great snowstorms even if the 60s were close by. Then the 17-18 winter started with a great Arctic shot after Christmas and record 950 mb Benchmark blizzard in early January. But a quick reversal in mid-January and then record 80° warmth in February before record 30” inch snows in March. Much of this volatility was a combination of record MJO 4-7 activity interacting with the lingering +PDO. A great November snowstorm in 2018 before the Pacific began to shift.

This takes us to the second factor which was how hostile the Pacific has become with a -PDO signature in this warming climate. 18-19 witnessed a rare El Niño failure due to the record WPAC warm pool which has been driving the warm MJO phases. So we went most of the winter with only a snow squall to show for the pattern while the Chicago area was seeing record cold in the -20s. Then we got into the turn of the new decade in 19-20 with a raging polar vortex and Pacific Jet with more warmth and well below normal snows. 20-21 was a nice reprieve but it was still warmer than average even with a great +PNA -AO. This would have been a much colder pattern in the past like 10-11 was with similar levels of blocking. But the block became too south based favoring places like BGM for the record 40” smowstorm before Christmas. But then the raging Pacific Jet returned on Christmas with the 40” snow pack melting rapidly and causing flash flooding and landslides at the ski resorts. 21-21 started with record warmth in December before seeing our last good winter month in January.

The most recent stretch since February 2022 to this past winter was our warmest and least snowiest so close together with numerous locations setting records for stretches with under 4” and 2” snowstorms. We made it to a record 9 warmer winters in a row with some degree of Southeast Ridging.

Now we are faced with another extreme global temperature jump even exceeding the 15-16 one. So I am waiting to see what this new even warmer baseline jump looks like in the coming years. So you see we were able to manage the warmth for great snowstorms before the Pacific shifted. But this hostile storm track plus the warmth has been a very challenging winter mix. When we did shift the MJO to 8 in January 2022 places like ACY were able to manage a record 30” month. But that was a fleeting pattern before the MJO went right back to 4-7. So even a short term favorable Pacific period can still produce to some extent. The question now becomes over the next few winters can we still manage a few of these favorable periods even with this new higher temperature baseline. I will remain open and take a wait and see approach. All these new marine heatwaves are really distorting how our past climate used to operate.

I feel like this post should end up in some historical archive some day.  I too believe that the ‘15-16 uber-Niño shifted the rules of the game and we’ve all been given a hard reminder that the state of the worlds largest ocean dictates much of the world’s sensible weather.

I do think that, despite the warmer baseline, us I-95 snow weenies will still have periods where we cash in big.  But it’s going to be feast or famine (i.e., more extremes) and, as the decades pass, probably more famine than feast.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

Euro seasonal is, at least on average, horrible down here with above normal temps all winter. At least precip is close to average. With the large AK ridge, I assume we'd probably get a cold snap or two when it occasionally amplifies enough. 

AN temps would be good for recovery efforts in hardest hit areas of the SE from Helene. The last thing they need is a harsh winter.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

Euro seasonal is, at least on average, horrible down here with above normal temps all winter. At least precip is close to average. With the large AK ridge, I assume we'd probably get a cold snap or two when it occasionally amplifies enough. 

How many times is the EURO going to show a La Niña then go to cold-neutral/La Nada then back again before this winter starts? Back and forth, back and forth like a schizophrenic. How can you trust it?

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lol you need to compare monthlies. September forecast doesn't include February, but the progression is cooler as the winter progresses just like Cfs2 and Cansips. September forecast for December and January on top and October forecast for December to February below.

When it gets closer to the season, I'll post month-by-month estimates (if I recall correctly, the skill related to the 3-month average is better than that for month-by-month forecasts from this timeframe). The key takeaway right now is that the Euro seasonal is warm, but not as warm as the last two winters. All things being equal, there should be some better opportunities for snowfall than one has seen in parts of the East during the past two winters. I still think the Great Lakes region will have normal to somewhat above normal snowfall.

For those who are interested, February is forecast to be only slightly above normal in the Mid-Atlantic Region (southern Great Lakes Region) and near normal in New England (much of the Great Lakes Region).

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I feel like this post should end up in some historical archive some day.  I too believe that the ‘15-16 uber-Niño shifted the rules of the game and we’ve all been given a hard reminder that the state of the worlds largest ocean dictates much of the world’s sensible weather.

I do think that, despite the warmer baseline, us I-95 snow weenies will still have periods where we cash in big.  But it’s going to be feast or famine (i.e., more extremes) and, as the decades pass, probably more famine than feast.

Thanks for the kind words. I think we got used to the linear warming pattern from the 1970s into 2000s. While it was getting warmer the blocking was also increasing along with the atmospheric moisture. So when everything lined up we had the record snows even if it also had periods of record warmth. 

But the 15-16 super El Nino feels like it may have ushered in more of a non-linear shift.  This has been leading to patterns getting stuck in place for much longer periods of time than we had been accustomed to in the past. Plus we just experienced and even stronger global temperature rise and new higher baseline.

While the WPAC warm pool has been leading to more frequent La Ninas and MJO 4-7 patterns since 1980, we were able to get some more favorable +PDOs in the mix. The question now becomes does the configuration of SST warming favor more frequent and intense -PDOs than +PDOs along with +AMOs over -AMOs. I don’t think we have enough data yet to make that determination. But it may have to be something we have to address if this very hostile Pacific continues and the Atlantic SSTs keep increasing.

But I agree with you that the increasing moisture is there for snow storms if we can switch back periodically to some elements of a 21-22 season or even 20-21 where the Pacific can briefly become more favorable.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

When it gets closer to the season, I'll post month-by-month estimates (if I recall correctly, the skill related to the 3-month average is better than that for month-by-month forecasts from this timeframe). The key takeaway right now is that the Euro seasonal is warm, but not as warm as the last two winters. All things being equal, there should be some better opportunities for snowfall than one has seen in parts of the East during the past two winters. I still think the Great Lakes region will have normal to somewhat above normal snowfall.

If you’re correct, that would be good news for the MA. Based on 850mb DJF climo, it gets down to around -3 along i-95. 

The past two winters were so warm that the 850s averaged 0 or above, which is a death sentence for snow prospects here. If it’s not going to be as warm, we could maybe have opportunities in borderline situations with west of 95 doing better. 

[brooklynwx99]

the ECMWF seasonal is actually pretty solid looking at 500mb, similar to the CFS and CanSIPS with hints of AK ridging and elongated TPV into SE Canada

Feb especially has the -EPO signal. seems like that will be a factor this year

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ECMWF seasonal is actually pretty solid looking at 500mb, similar to the CFS and CanSIPS with hints of AK ridging and elongated TPV into SE Canada

Feb especially has the -EPO signal. seems like that will be a factor this year

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

The euro definitely has a la nina signature in its mid latitude atmospheric pattern. Just because the equatorial pacific ssts aren’t as cold as you want them to be, it doesn’t mean there won’t be an aleutian ridge as the euro is showing. 

[mitchnick]

Here's a shocker. Euro NAO. Much better than last month's run, or should I say the last 14 years! Lol

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's a shocker. Euro NAO. Much better than last month's run, or should I say the last 14 years! Lol

Looks pretty neutral. Wasn’t it strongly positive last month?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Looks pretty neutral. Wasn’t it strongly positive last month?

Much better than September with December and January just below. Here's last month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think we are still in a sweet spot if we get a favorable pattern.. maybe not the NAO, but on the Pacific side. Global precipitable water has been way up. There was a spot in Louisiana that broke their record by almost 200% in the Spring. And the rains with Helene were more anomalous than usual too. Last year globally was a good +20% over all satellite data since 1948. I think people are rushing the "post 15-16 Super El Nino" climate change. Maybe what we be typical 40-50 years from now, they are calling the last 9 years. The fact is, we have to figure out why strong El Nino's are reversing so much thereafter. 1:8 is the current ratio after 15-16 (-PNA), and it was always historically ~1:3 (meaning 3 la nina's per 1 strong nino). I want to know why a Strong El Nino could lead to 9 years of strong -PNA. Maybe it's just a coincidence or the strong ENSO event is just a blip in an otherwise strong background state? Once the Pacific becomes more favorable, the higher precip tendency should give us some above average snowfall years, for sure.. 

Last season was very similar to 1972-1973 with the strong el Nini in the midst of a cold phase of the Pacific.

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

When it gets closer to the season, I'll post month-by-month estimates (if I recall correctly, the skill related to the 3-month average is better than that for month-by-month forecasts from this timeframe). The key takeaway right now is that the Euro seasonal is warm, but not as warm as the last two winters. All things being equal, there should be some better opportunities for snowfall than one has seen in parts of the East during the past two winters. I still think the Great Lakes region will have normal to somewhat above normal snowfall.

For those who are interested, February is forecast to be only slightly above normal in the Mid-Atlantic Region (southern Great Lakes Region) and near normal in New England (much of the Great Lakes Region).

Agreed. Still warm, but better than last year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/4/2024 at 8:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am of the opinion that this season will behave in a manner that is consistent with La Nina, however, La Nina will not be the primary driver...if that makes sense.

 

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The euro definitely has a la nina signature in its mid latitude atmospheric pattern. Just because the equatorial pacific ssts aren’t as cold as you want them to be, it doesn’t mean there won’t be an aleutian ridge as the euro is showing. 

Yes. Absolutely this.

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

In light of the progged Easterly anomalies upon us now and current SSTA's, it's hard to buy the November spike in SSTA anomalies on this run attached. How that would change other forecasting parameters is anyone's guess. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Same here...2010s were the snowiest decade on record. The 2000s just narrowly miss being the 2nd. The increase in snowfall since the mid 20th century gas been undeniable.

This was exactly my point. The pattern doesn't get enough credit. It's not like cc just popped up out of nowhere 9 years ago...I remember during our incredible run of winters many were quick to point out it doesn't mean cc isn't happening, there's a difference between weather and climate. Well that works both ways. I don't know what the climate will be when I'm long gone, could be a rainforest or an ice age who knows...but i have no worries about MI winters not being winters in my lifetime.

AGW has definitely progressed since then and is accelerating, but this is a good point. Even in the 2014-2015 winter, the large scale picture was a cold pocket right over the eastern U.S. in a sea of warmth. The climate was warmer in 2014-2015 than the early 2000s, and the climate today is warmer than 2014-2015. I do agree that your area is much better off than areas closer to the coast like mine with the changing climate. Close proximity to the rapidly warming Atlantic Ocean gives us less room for error in terms of storm track, and I suspect that has something to do with December climo worsening faster than other months like March locally. December is the winter month with the warmest average ocean temps, so it makes sense that December is closer to a “tipping point” than March here. You have much more room for error in MI, farther away from the ocean and much colder/snowier climo to begin with.

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

I don’t buy it either. Interestingly, despite the lack of La Niña on the Euro the 500mb is very much a La Nina pattern. Ridging south of Alaska (usually a trough here in Ninos) and some SE ridging. Probably a fairly active northern branch too. The big question is how far south does the northern branch dip? It’s not a bad pattern for my area verbatim, though definitely playing with fire in regards to that SE ridging especially early winter. Mid Atlantic weenies would like to see more North Atlantic blocking, not really seeing that on the Euro. Although I am skeptical of the lack of La Niña on the Euro, 500mb pattern showed makes sense. I suspect it has the right idea to some extent there.

[bluewave]

The Euro 500 mb forecast is nearly identical to the ones it issued for 22-23 and 21-22.