2024-2025 La Nina

[raindancewx]

Can someone delete my account? I'm done with this site. Thanks.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Can someone delete my account? I'm done with this site. Thanks.

Come on, your post about the PDO going positive is one of the most liked in this thread..

[raindancewx]

I'm completely serious. I want out. I've been trying to delete this for days.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm completely serious. I want out. I've been trying to delete this for days.

I'll be more sensitive to your plight. I didn't mean to criticize saying that ACE doesn't really matter for the Winter.. just meant to turn it into a logical meteorological discussion. Some things are so simply explained, and we want each other to have better forecasts. You posted that this Aug had the +NAO record and some other things... I wouldn't have known that had you not posted it here. It's mostly good stuff, we're all discussing to make one another better in the realm of science. Whether the WPO is positive or not really means little, I'm actually surprised that it rolls forward to a cooler Dec and Jan in the Midwest and East. You intuitively made that "flip" connection here in the past..  Your intuitions from local observations are mostly good.. I generally agree that it's a global system occurring that can be sensed very individually. 

[bluewave]

The record heat out West for early fall is on the level of the September into October 2015 super El Niño and 2022 La Niña.

 

Time Series Summary for Cheyenne Area, WY (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2015	64.7	0
2	2024	64.0	0
-	2022	64.0	0
-	2019	64.0	0
3	1998	63.9	0
4	2021	63.6	0
5	2023	63.4	0
6	1963	63.1	0
7	1979	62.8	0
8	1990	62.2	0
9	2018	62.1	0
-	2005	62.1	0
10	1897	61.9	0

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

September fit my roll forwards for warm CONUS Dec-July (this year was #1 warmest on record, due to +EPO) pretty well. 

October is looking like it will also be a match. 

December is the only month through the following March where there is not an extremely warm signal. 

heh ... considering that the whole world put up the 2nd warmest sep in history ... not sure we can say 'due to +epo' as the singular cause for that

but yeah, it wasn't hurting to have the pacific signal as such

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'll be more sensitive to your plight. I didn't mean to criticize saying that ACE doesn't really matter for the Winter.. just meant to turn it into a logical meteorological discussion. Some things are so simply explained, and we want each other to have better forecasts. You posted that this Aug had the +NAO record and some other things... I wouldn't have known that had you not posted it here. It's mostly good stuff, we're all discussing to make one another better in the realm of science. Whether the WPO is positive or not really means little, I'm actually surprised that it rolls forward to a cooler Dec and Jan in the Midwest and East. You intuitively made that "flip" connection here in the past..  Your intuitions from local observations are mostly good.. I generally agree that it's a global system occurring that can be sensed very individually. 

Yea, raindance can be very prickily, but hopefully he stays because he is a great forecaster. I would def. suggest giving him a follow on X whether he leaves of stays.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The record heat out West for early fall is on the level of the September into October 2015 super El Niño and 2022 La Niña.

 

Time Series Summary for Cheyenne Area, WY (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2015	64.7	0
2	2024	64.0	0
-	2022	64.0	0
-	2019	64.0	0
3	1998	63.9	0
4	2021	63.6	0
5	2023	63.4	0
6	1963	63.1	0
7	1979	62.8	0
8	1990	62.2	0
9	2018	62.1	0
-	2005	62.1	0
10	1897	61.9	0

One of these days Chris will make a post that doesn't make me want to shotgun a gallon of antifreeze.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Of course, we finally may get a season in which raindance is a voice of dissent amidst a chorus of doom and gloom for the east and he'll dissapear faster than a day 16 snow threat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Regardless of that the weather is doing, its fruitless to post in here during the fall because anything and everything will be tied to warmth during the winter somehow. I'm sure even a blizzard in January will elicit a slew a "roll forward" posts to MC forcing in February, but at least then you can enjoy the snow while enduring it.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of these days Chris will make a post that doesn't make me want to shotgun a gallon of antifreeze.

That isn’t my intention Just pointing out how anomalous the warmth out West has been. The interesting thing about this recent -PDO era in the 2020s is how much more of a ridge and warmth we are getting out West from the summer into fall than the older -PDO era. Must be related to the extreme marine heatwaves over the Pacific Basin.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 That isn’t my intention Just pointing out how anomalous the warmth out West has been. The interesting thing about this recent -PDO era in the 2020s is how much more of a ridge and warmth we are getting out West from the summer into fall than the older -PDO era. Must be related to the extreme marine heatwaves over the Pacific Basin.

 

I know...no offense intended whatsoever. Just a tension-breaker.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of these days Chris will make a post that doesn't make me want to shotgun a gallon of antifreeze.

I don’t enjoy either what he posts in terms of the outcome or Snowman but where have they been wrong? I’d rather take the bad accurate news than get JB’d for the season to ultimately fail. And it was in the NYC forum exclusively I think but Bluewave was plenty bullish before 2018 when this crap pattern really got underway and pointed out how great things have been for NYC/LI up to then. It’s unpleasant honesty but it is what it is. 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...no offense intended whatsoever. Just a tension-breaker.

I get it. Sometimes you just have to laugh. But these patterns have been getting stuck in place and repeating across years and seasons in a way we haven’t seen before. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I get it. Sometimes you just have to laugh. But these patterns have been getting stuck in place and repeating across years and seasons in a way we haven’t seen before. 

We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position.

If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought...

[snowman19]

My guess is that the Atlantic is about to go quiet come mid-month. Huge shear profile starting to show up and the MJO is going to propogate 4-6 (Maritime Continent) with a subsidence response over the Atlantic basin. When you combine that with the big solar spike (upper atmosphere warming/stability) we are seeing, it screams a big drop in TC’s
 

 

 

Also, here comes the suspected GOA cold pool, as a normal progression downstream from the big Bering Sea cooling we saw last month:

 

 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position.

If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought...

Yep, waxes and wanes.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My guess is that the Atlantic is about to go quiet come mid-month. Huge shear profile starting to show up and the MJO is going to propogate 4-6 (Maritime Continent) with a subsidence response over the Atlantic basin. When you combine that with the big solar spike (upper atmosphere warming/stability) we are seeing, it screams a big drop in TC’s
 

 

 

Also, here comes the suspected GOA cold pool, as a normal progression downstream from the big Bering Sea cooling we saw last month:

 

 

The difference between Coral Reefs and Oisst in the N Pac is laughable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep, waxes and wanes.

Theoretically speaking, Chris' connection to CC makes sense...but I just need to see it continue for another 7-8 years or so before more strongly considering it. The permanent alteration of the pattern...not the warming part. We know it is warming....no debate there.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The difference between Coral Reefs and Oisst in the N Pac is laughable. 

Other than some residual warmth it shows in the GOA, it still has the colder anomalies developing there. Other than that, I don’t see a huge difference 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position.

If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought...

Exactly. We never saw that before either (on record at least), and this is an expected regression. How far it goes and if it continues into the next decade will be very telling. Not sure how many cities had their snowiest decade on record in the 2010s, but just from this board, I can confirm Detroit and New York City both did, along with a slew of others (would be too much work to do each individual city, but the trend is clear).

And yes the drought out west was end of the world stuff. A relatives husband is from Oakland, CA and I remember him talking about how horrible the drought was and it seemed like it would never end (all while we were living high off the snow hog).

[Eduardo]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I don’t enjoy either what he posts in terms of the outcome or Snowman but where have they been wrong? I’d rather take the bad accurate news than get JB’d for the season to ultimately fail. And it was in the NYC forum exclusively I think but Bluewave was plenty bullish before 2018 when this crap pattern really got underway and pointed out how great things have been for NYC/LI up to then. It’s unpleasant honesty but it is what it is. 

I would also add that Chris was plenty bullish here and over on Eastern (IIRC) during the heavenly era we experienced beginning in the mid 2000s—and especially 13-14 and 14-15.  He’s probably one of the most objective contributors in this community of ours.

[BlizzardWx]

Having grown up in the west (Portland OR) I can certainly speak to the feeling that things will never go back to normal and the anguish of multiple lackluster snow years in a row. Things do turn around eventually but decadal snow drought patterns are definitely a thing. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, raindance can be very prickily, but hopefully he stays because he is a great forecaster. I would def. suggest giving him a follow on X whether he leaves of stays.

I don’t use X but would be great if y’all post raindance’s tweets here. 

[BlizzardWx]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t use X but would be great if y’all post raindance’s tweets here. 

What's his handle over there? (for whoever knows)

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have talked about this before, but you know my stance for now....its regression on the heels of the snowiest decade in history. If it remains like this into next decade, then I will reconsider that position.

If you recall, last decade the world was ending out west due to the multiyear drought...

I would just leave out the regression to the  mean part since the volatility in our snowfall since the 1990s in places like the NYC Metro has been beyond any historical mean. Islip has seen an all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 1990s with hardly any average seasons. The previous 30-40 year period was defined by mostly mean seasons with higher and lower seasons more rare. These days it’s either record high or low snowfall with very few average seasons which were much more common in the old days. 

The Western droughts continue to this day. But they have been moving around with the shifting stuck record 500 mb ridge positions. This has come with an acceleration of the water cycle which has lead to big swings between wet and dry against the overall drier pattern.
 

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Theoretically speaking, Chris' connection to CC makes sense...but I just need to see it continue for another 7-8 years or so before more strongly considering it. The permanent alteration of the pattern...not the warming part. We know it is warming....no debate there.

Just noting the changes that have occurred. Since 2010 NYC Metro and other regional spots have experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warmer summers. So we have a 15 year period of observations for the summer new summer pattern. The same areas have experienced a record 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters since 15-16. The remaining winters of the decade will give us more data to make a winter determination. 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Other than some residual warmth it shows in the GOA, it still has the colder anomalies developing there. Other than that, I don’t see a huge difference 

Yeah, I was comparing the other 2 maps  cyclonicwx.com has for the 2. My bad. 

I still can't understand these discrepancies. If the different sources can't agree on SSTA now, how in Sam Hill are we supposed to trust historical maps?

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I would also add that Chris was plenty bullish here and over on Eastern (IIRC) during the heavenly era we experienced beginning in the mid 2000s—and especially 13-14 and 14-15.  He’s probably one of the most objective contributors in this community of ours.

I didn't really pay much attention to him back then, so I will take your word for it. I have recognized his worhtwhile contributions over the past couple of seasons, though because he has been on of the few that has had a firm grasp.

[so_whats_happening]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, I was comparing the other 2 maps  cyclonicwx.com has for the 2. My bad. 

I still can't understand these discrepancies. If the different sources can't agree on SSTA now, how in Sam Hill are we supposed to trust historical maps?

The OISST has not updated in 5 days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would just leave out the regression to the  mean part since the volatility in our snowfall since the 1990s in places like the NYC Metro has been beyond any historical mean. Islip has seen an all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 1990s with hardly any average seasons. The previous 30-40 year period was defined by mostly mean seasons with higher and lower seasons more rare. These days it’s either record high or low snowfall with very few average seasons which were much more common in the old days. 

The Western droughts continue to this day. But they have been moving around with the shifting stuck record 500 mb ridge positions. This has come with an acceleration of the water cycle which has lead to big swings between wet and dry against the overall drier pattern.
 

Just noting the changes that have occurred. Since 2010 NYC Metro and other regional spots have experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warmer summers. So we have a 15 year period of observations for the summer new summer pattern. The same areas have experienced a record 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters since 15-16. The remaining winters of the decade will give us more data to make a winter determination. 

We can agree to diasgree on the regression part. Yes, volatility has been increased, but when you view snowfall through a decadal lens, its apprent that this decade is regression from last decade....volatility is multi-decadal and not relgated to the seasonal level.